Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the commitment to high-quality development and financial support for the real economy in 2026, marking the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][5] - The company aims to enhance its asset management capabilities and innovate its product offerings to better serve clients [1][5] - As of the end of 2025, the company's total asset management scale exceeded 330 billion yuan, with public funds amounting to 120 billion yuan [2][6] Group 2 - The company has issued over 190 billion yuan in Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) since its inception and has served more than 20 million investors [2][6] - The company has distributed over 70 billion yuan in dividends to its product holders [2][6] - The new year is seen as an opportunity for collaboration and creating a better future together with stakeholders [2][6]

2026年是"十五五"规划全面实施的关键之年，河南高质量发展迈入新阶段。作为从中原大地成长起来、 始终与地方发展同频共振的地方法人金融机构，郑州银行牢牢把握"稳中求进"工作总基调，深入贯彻 2025年中央经济工作会议关于"推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"的核心要求，全面落实2026 年河南省政府工作报告各项部署，将自身发展深度融入国家重大战略和全省发展大局，在服务实体经 济、纾解小微企业融资难题、增进民生福祉、激发消费潜能、助力乡村振兴等重点领域持续发力，以卓 越金融服务为现代化河南建设注入强劲动能。 该行将金融服务深度融入医保社保、教育培训、医疗卫生等民生高频场景，精准匹配居民在资产配置、 消费融资等方面的多样化需求。围绕河南省上调城乡居民基本养老保险基础养老金最低标准、开展托幼 一体化试点等重点民生工程，持续迭代个人金融产品与服务，并推动服务网络向县域及乡镇纵深延伸， 扩大普惠金融覆盖面与可及性，让更多城乡群众享受到便捷、高效、有温度的综合金融服务，切实增强 满足感、幸福感与安全感。 筑牢金融根基，全力服务实体经济 实体经济是高质量发展的根本支撑。郑州银行始终坚持金融本源，持续增强资本实力，优化资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhengzhou Bank is committed to integrating its development with the modernization of Henan Province, focusing on supporting the local economy and enhancing financial services to various sectors, including small and micro enterprises, consumer spending, and rural revitalization [1][2][4][6]. Group 1: Financial Support for Economic Development - Zhengzhou Bank aims to strengthen its capital base and optimize asset-liability structures to support national strategies and regional economic development [2]. - The bank is aligning its credit resources with key projects and sectors, such as advanced manufacturing and urban renewal, to ensure financial backing for the province's GDP growth target of 5.6% and industrial value-added growth of 8.4% [2]. Group 2: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The bank addresses the financing challenges faced by small and micro enterprises by providing tailored financial solutions throughout their lifecycle and reducing financing costs [3]. - Zhengzhou Bank conducts regular visits to understand the operational status and needs of these enterprises, offering customized financial support and utilizing diverse financing tools [3]. Group 3: Enhancing Financial Services for Citizens - The bank focuses on a people-centered development approach, creating a comprehensive financial service ecosystem that addresses various public needs, including healthcare and education [4]. - Zhengzhou Bank is expanding its financial services to rural areas, ensuring accessibility and convenience for residents [4]. Group 4: Stimulating Consumption and Domestic Demand - The bank is actively promoting consumption by optimizing credit services for housing, appliances, and digital products, thereby enhancing consumer spending potential [5]. - Zhengzhou Bank supports the development of new consumption models and urban improvement projects to boost retail sales across the province [5]. Group 5: Rural Revitalization Initiatives - The bank is committed to directing financial resources towards rural revitalization, enhancing basic financial services in rural areas, and supporting infrastructure and agricultural development [6]. - Zhengzhou Bank is developing financial products tailored to local agricultural industries to promote sustainable income growth for farmers [6]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, Zhengzhou Bank plans to focus on five key areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, to enhance its service capabilities [7]. - The bank aims to contribute to the modernization of Henan Province by providing precise financial services and robust support for local economic development [7].

各专业科室立足区域产业特色与发展实际，系统梳理2025年度经济运行脉络，围绕农业生产、畜牧业养殖、居民收入、就业、消费价格、工业生产者价 格、企业经营等主要民生调查数据进行了分析解读。同时，结合市委十二届九次全会暨市委经济工作会议及双鸭山市十七届人民代表大会第五次会议精 神，对2026年一季度及全年经济形势进行研判。 会议强调，2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，要精准发挥统计调查"晴雨表"作用。一是深入开展基层调研，深入了解掌握畜牧业养殖场（户）生产计 划、"春节"前后民生商品价格变化趋势、外出从业人员返乡情况等，强化经济形势预测预警精准度。二是深化调查数据分析，紧紧围绕"十五五"规划开局 部署，以月度、季度经济形势分析会为重要载体，综合运用进度分析、专题信息、课题研究等多元形式，挖掘提炼经济发展亮点成效，客观剖析短板瓶 颈，为提振发展信心、破解发展难题提供参考依据。三是健全部门协同联动机制，重点加强与市统计局、发展改革委、商务局、农业农村局、工信局等行 业主管部门信息共享，整合数据资源，提升经济形势分析的科学性、前瞻性和实效性，确保统计分析精准透彻、建言献策靶向聚焦，积极为各级党委政府 科学决策提供坚实 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the increasing uncertainty and structural conflicts in the global economic landscape, as highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" which describes the current external environment as characterized by "intertwined changes and increasing turmoil" [3][7] - By 2026, the global economy is expected to be in a phase of deep adjustment and order reconstruction, with more frequent external shocks and diverse transmission paths, reflecting a chaotic system characteristic [3][7] - China's economic transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development necessitates a shift in development goals and operational logic, focusing on precise resource allocation, stability in cross-cycle adjustments, and overall resilience of the system [8] Group 2 - High-quality development requires financial resources to effectively serve key areas such as new productive forces, fostering patient capital, and establishing institutional risk-sharing mechanisms [8] - The financial system must guide funds to achieve better matching between industrial cycles and technological cycles, continuously supporting industrial upgrades and the release of potential growth momentum [8] - The transition from a financial power to a financial strong nation is marked by a clear and profound era connotation, where "big" reflects scale and coverage, while "strong" indicates capability and resilience [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - The optimistic prediction for China's GDP growth in 2026 is set at 4.9%, supported by policy stabilization and structural transformation factors, with potential to closely approach this figure due to various economic drivers [1][3][20]. Economic Growth Forecast - The overall GDP growth rate for 2026 is expected to be 4.9%, aligning with mainstream institutional forecasts, with a consensus range of 4.5% to 5.0% [3][4]. - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley project a baseline growth of 4.8%, while local institutions set their growth center at 4.8% to 5.0% [3][4]. Policy Support - Fiscal policy is expected to be proactive, with a projected increase in broad fiscal spending by approximately 1.2 trillion yuan compared to 2025, maintaining a deficit ratio at a reasonable level of 4% [4]. - Monetary policy anticipates 1-2 reserve requirement ratio cuts and one interest rate reduction, with social financing growth expected to remain around 8.5% [5]. Domestic Demand as Growth Engine - Domestic consumption is projected to be the primary driver of the 4.9% growth, with final consumption expenditure contributing approximately 55% to GDP growth [7][12]. - Specific policies, such as the expansion of the "old-for-new" program, are expected to stimulate large-scale consumption [8]. Investment Trends - Investment patterns are characterized by strong manufacturing, stable infrastructure, and a significant reduction in the negative impact of real estate [9]. - Manufacturing investment is expected to maintain over 5% growth in high-tech sectors, while infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to 5%-6% [9]. Export Resilience - China's exports are anticipated to show unexpected resilience, particularly in high-value products like AI servers and semiconductor equipment, with export growth rates of 5%-6% [11]. - The trade surplus is expected to remain high, with net exports contributing 0.8%-0.9% to GDP growth [11]. New Five-Year Plan Impact - The new five-year plan is expected to catalyze new productive forces, with significant investments in high-tech industries and infrastructure projects commencing in 2026 [17][18]. - The transition from the previous five-year plan to the new one is expected to enhance investment efficiency and stimulate economic growth [18]. Quarterly Growth Dynamics - The GDP growth is projected to follow a pattern of lower growth in the first half of the year, with an increase in the latter half, reaching approximately 5.1% in the fourth quarter [16].

Group 1: Industry Trends - The high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 52.0%, indicating a sustained positive development trend in related industries such as electronics, software, and communication services [1] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are being implemented, including a focus on promoting consumption of durable goods like automobiles and home appliances [1] - There is a shift from "involution" competition to value-oriented competition, creating investment opportunities in sectors like energy metals and specialty steel [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The top five sectors with net inflows include shipbuilding, military industry, film and television, automotive parts, and semiconductors [1] - The leading concepts with net inflows are military groups, liquid-cooled servers, large fund concepts, drones, and Tencent-related stocks [1] - The top ten individual stocks with net inflows include Light Media, Bona Film Group, Invec, Daily Interaction, Hailanxin, China Shipbuilding, Huafeng Technology, Northern Huachuang, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Wangsu Technology [1] Group 3: AI and Technology Developments - The AI healthcare market in China is projected to reach 97.6 billion yuan by 2028, with significant applications in areas like consultation and medical report generation [3] - The global AI computing power center is experiencing explosive growth, leading to a scarcity of transformers, with delivery times in the U.S. extending from 50 weeks to 127 weeks [3] - Domestic large model manufacturers are leveraging major holiday events to enhance user engagement and accelerate commercialization in AI applications [5] Group 4: Market Overview - The overall market trend is weak, with limited new capital entering and a weak profit-making effect [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a nearly 20% increase over the past year, but the market remains challenging for traders [11] - The valuation metrics indicate that the stock market is relatively low compared to historical averages, with the overall A-share index PE at 23.3 [11]

Economic Growth Targets - The weighted average GDP growth target for 31 provinces in 2026 is set at 5.0%, down from 5.3% in 2025[2] - 17 provinces have lowered their targets, while 14 have kept them unchanged; 7 provinces set interval targets, indicating a likelihood of a national target range of 4.5% to 5%[2][13] - Economic powerhouses are expected to bear more responsibility for growth, with half of the top ten provinces maintaining their original targets[2][13] Investment Focus - The average fixed asset investment growth target has decreased from 6.3% to 5.1%, with all provinces either lowering or maintaining their 2025 targets[3][37] - Emphasis is placed on expanding private and livelihood investments, with many provinces encouraging private capital participation in various sectors[3][38] - Specific investment plans include a commitment of 721.46 billion yuan in Guangdong for livelihood projects[38] Consumption Trends - The weighted average target for social retail sales growth is approximately 4.8%, down from 5.4% in 2025[4] - Provinces are focusing on increasing residents' income through measures like raising basic pensions and providing subsidies[4] - New consumption models are being developed, particularly in sectors like health, culture, and entertainment, with a focus on "emotional economy"[4] Technological Development - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is entering a comprehensive application phase, with local governments promoting AI in various sectors[5] - Emerging industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, and renewable energy are prioritized, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan"[5] Real Estate Market - The main strategies for the real estate sector include revitalizing existing stock and improving housing quality[6] - Many provinces are initiating programs to purchase existing homes for affordable housing, marking a shift from previous strategies[6] National Conference Outlook - The national GDP growth target is likely to be set between 4.5% and 5%, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and technological breakthroughs[6] - Investment strategies will continue to support key projects and enhance livelihood investments, while the real estate sector will focus on revitalizing existing stock[6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2026 年 02 月 13 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：方堃 执业编号：S0300521050001 电话：010-83755575 邮箱：fangkun@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】透视 2026 物价新局：基期 轮换、体感差异与回升之路》2026-02-11 《【粤开宏观】从地方调研看宏观经济：市 场预期、收入分配与微观活力》2026-02-09 《【粤开宏观】如何认识 5%与 140 万亿》 2026-02-02 《【粤开宏观】2025 年中国区域经济版图： 东进西稳，南升北降》2026-02-01 《【粤开宏观】美联储新主席沃什将如何 "掌舵"？能否保持独立？》2026-01-31 摘要 我们在《2025 年中国区域经济版图：东进西稳，南升北降》中回顾了 2025 年地方经济的成果，中国经济的韧性在于战略纵深空间广、区域经济阶梯式 发展，东南西北中各有千秋。本文是"2026 年地方经济怎么干"系列的上篇， 主要聚焦 2026 年 GDP 目标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Xi'an Municipal Government is focusing on enhancing consumption, stabilizing growth, and promoting openness to achieve a strong start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant achievements in retail sales and foreign trade in the past year [3][4]. Group 1: Consumption Growth - The retail sales of social consumer goods reached a historical high, with a total of 839 billion yuan driven by targeted policies and activities [3]. - The city introduced 376 new stores and organized over 900 promotional events, leading to a transaction volume exceeding 200 billion yuan in consumer exhibitions [3]. - By 2025, the retail sales are projected to reach 572.12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, outperforming the national average by 1.6 percentage points [3]. Group 2: Foreign Trade Development - The total import and export value is expected to reach 498.79 billion yuan by 2025, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [4]. - Exports are projected to be 349.26 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 25.8%, leading among sub-provincial cities [4]. - New business models such as cross-border e-commerce saw a 75.1% increase in imports and exports, while high-tech products and "new three types" products also experienced significant growth [4]. Group 3: Platform Enhancement - The city is implementing a Free Trade Zone enhancement strategy, with 82 innovative cases cultivated and 6 promoted by national ministries [5]. - The import and export value through the Xi'an Comprehensive Bonded Zone reached 39.52 billion yuan, growing by 17.8% [5]. - By 2025, service trade imports and exports are expected to reach 69.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24.4% [5]. Group 4: Future Plans - The Xi'an Municipal Government will focus on boosting consumption and expanding high-level openness, with a strategic emphasis on policy empowerment and scenario-driven growth [6]. - Key initiatives include enhancing consumer supply, fostering new consumption scenarios, and promoting trade innovation to support enterprises in expanding their markets [7]. - The city plans to host 130 themed promotional events for the 2026 Spring Festival, aiming to create a vibrant consumption atmosphere [8].