2024 年 9 月份中国的进出口数据表现如何？ 2024 年 9 月份，中国的出口同比增长 8.3%，高于市场预期。进口方面，9 月 份也出现了明显的快速上涨，同样超出市场预期。这一表现背后主要有几大因 素支撑：首先是去年同期基数较低，去年 9 月受到台风等极端天气影响，导致 基数较低；其次，本月外需环比动力回升至正常季节性水平之上，显示出外需 韧性。 出口走强和中美博弈加剧有哪些信号？20251014 摘要 9 月中国出口数据受益于去年同期低基数及全球电子周期韧性，集成电 路出口增速维持高位，新兴经济体需求强劲，中欧双边贸易改善亦构成 支撑。 中国对印度、拉美和东盟等新兴经济体以及非洲的需求表现强劲，成为 出口增长的重要驱动力。 二季度以来中欧双边贸易持续改善，叠加欧元区经济温和复苏和财政扩 张，为中国终端消费品出口带来需求机会。 近期 PPI 回升和人民币升值缓解了外贸企业以价换量的压力，但中美经 贸博弈的不确定性依然存在。 中国内地对香港的贵金属商品需求依然强劲，同时从俄罗斯、非洲、拉 美等资源型国家进口的金属矿产和能源制品快速增长。 与内需相关的机床、计算机设备和化妆品进口仍处于低位，表明当前中 国 ...

Demand - External demand is expected to perform better than internal demand, with August exports projected to decline by 5.1% due to high base effects and tariff impacts, but the pressure is manageable due to improved external demand and market share gains[1][12] - Domestic consumption and manufacturing investment are expected to weaken, with retail sales projected to grow by only 4.4% year-on-year in August, influenced by limited use of subsidy funds[1][24] Supply - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August, indicating sustained production activity, particularly in export-oriented sectors[3][42] - Industrial output is expected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year in August, supported by resilient indicators in the export chain, such as a 3.8 percentage point increase in high furnace operation rates[4][51] Inflation - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show limited year-on-year improvement of -2.9% in August, despite rising commodity prices, due to low capacity utilization in mid and downstream sectors[5][64] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to decline by 0.4% year-on-year in August, driven by weak food prices and a high youth unemployment rate affecting rental prices[6][68]

Group 1: Demand - External demand is expected to be better than internal demand in the short term, with August exports projected to maintain resilience at 5.1% despite potential pressures from "transshipment tariffs" and "reciprocal tariffs" [2][11][100] - Internal demand shows signs of weakness, primarily due to limited use of subsidy funds, with retail sales expected to grow by only 4.4% in August [2][26][100] - Service consumption and investment are performing relatively well, driven by high travel activity and increased private investment in the service sector, with overall investment growth expected to remain stable at 1.6% [3][11][100] Group 2: Supply - Production remains robust, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.4% in August, indicating continued production activity despite some constraints from "anti-involution" policies [4][43][100] - Industries with high external demand dependency, such as textiles and specialized equipment, are experiencing higher production indices, while sectors like agriculture and automotive are lagging [4][50][100] - Industrial output is projected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year in August, supported by strong performance in the export chain [5][55][100] Group 3: Inflation - Expectations of supply contraction and rising commodity prices are likely to support a rebound in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with a projected improvement in PPI year-on-year [6][64][100] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to decline further due to weak food prices and low downstream PPI, with an anticipated drop of 0.4% year-on-year in August [8][80][100] Group 4: Outlook - The economic outlook for August centers around the resilience of external demand and the weakness of internal demand, with a projected nominal GDP growth of 3.6% and real GDP growth of 4.8% [9][91][100]

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production increased slightly, while glass production rates improved, indicating a mixed performance in industrial production[2] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate showed a marginal adjustment, reflecting ongoing challenges in the construction materials sector[2] - Steel and building materials production and apparent demand saw a month-on-month increase, suggesting a recovery in construction activity[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 0.3% year-on-year as of August 29, with a notable improvement from a -9.4% decline earlier in the month[2] - The four-week rolling index for second-hand home listing prices decreased by 0.44% as of August 18, indicating ongoing price pressures in the housing market[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 152.4 million yuan per day, up 32.2% year-on-year, reflecting strong consumer interest in entertainment[2] - Retail sales of home appliances grew by 4.7% year-on-year as of August 22, showing a recovery in consumer spending[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries increased by 12.9% year-on-year, although it showed a slight decline from previous weeks[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 4.7% year-on-year as of August 24, indicating resilience in external trade[2] - Container throughput at ports rose by 5.9% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in shipping activities[2] - South Korea's exports grew by 7.6% year-on-year in the first 20 days of August, indicating a positive trend in regional trade[2] Price Trends - The South China industrial product index fell by 0.4%, while the black raw materials and non-ferrous metals indices rose by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, indicating mixed price movements in commodities[2] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 0.9%, while spot prices fell by 0.3%, reflecting ongoing volatility in the steel market[2]

Core Insights - China's foreign trade maintained a stable growth trend in the first four months of the year, with a total import and export value of 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4][9] - In April, the total value of goods trade reached 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports at 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, and imports at 1.57 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.8% [3][9] Trade Performance - Exports in April exceeded market expectations, driven by factors such as "export grabbing" in markets outside the U.S., resilient external demand, and the timing of tariff policies [5][10] - The export growth rate in April was 8.1% in dollar terms, despite a significant decline in exports to the U.S. by 21.0%, which pulled down the overall export growth by approximately 3 percentage points [5][10] Key Trade Partners - ASEAN and the EU emerged as China's largest and second-largest trading partners, with exports to ASEAN growing by 12.6% and to the EU by 6.1%, both significantly higher than the overall foreign trade growth rate [9][10] - In April, exports to ASEAN surged by 20.8%, which helped offset the decline in exports to the U.S. [10] Sector Performance - Labor-intensive products showed low growth, with a combined monthly year-on-year change of -0.8%, while exports of general machinery and equipment, ships, and integrated circuits saw significant increases of 17.0%, 36.1%, and 20.2% respectively [6][9] Private Sector Contribution - The share of private enterprises in foreign trade continued to rise, accounting for 56.9% of total trade value in the first four months, with exports from private enterprises growing by 8.1% [10]