2025 年 12 月 7 日 丨 总第 135 期 1000255872 1000255872 "宏观经济和资产价格为什么会背离" 或许问错了问题 1000255872 1000255872 1000255872 中国⾦融四⼗⼈研究院 朱鹤 摘要： 年三季度以来，我国权益市场表现⽐较强劲，但市场主流观点似乎认为 宏观经济在三季度之后⾯临的压⼒和挑战明显增加。由此引出了市场频繁讨论的⼀个热点 话题，即为何资产价格的表现与宏观经济存在明显背离。 1000255872 1000255872 1000255872 我们认为，"资产价格和宏观表现为什么会背离"这个问题其实问错了。因为不只是 资产价格跟所谓"宏观经济下⾏压⼒加⼤"的判断存在背离，在宏观数据内部、宏观与部 分中观⾏业数据之间，都存在⽐较明显的背离现象。 本⽂重新审视了三季度以来我国主要宏观指标的表现，⼀个初步的印象是：三季度以 来，尽管部分宏观指标较⼆季度有⼀定回落，但相当⼀部分指标仍在延续改善的趋势，⾄ 少没有出现明显恶化。在所有主要宏观指标中，投资的表现⾮常异常，现阶段不宜⽤投资 回落作为判断三季度我国经济明显走弱的证据。因此，如果暂时搁置对投资的关 ...

Core Viewpoint - In November, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3.8% and rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1% [2][46] Group 1: Export Strength in Midstream - The export growth rate rebounded significantly in November, with a 7 percentage point increase compared to the previous month, influenced by base effects and resilient demand [4][13] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders showed a substantial recovery across all industries, indicating improved export demand [4][14] - The overall growth momentum has marginally recovered to seasonal averages, with a three-month moving average of 1.1% in November, slightly below the historical average of 1.4% [4][14] Group 2: Category Analysis - Exports are strong in electromechanical products, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.9% from January to November, contributing 87% to the overall export growth [8][20] - The "three main electromechanical products" (cars, ships, integrated circuits) have seen export growth rates exceeding 15% [8][21] - Labor-intensive products, in contrast, showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -4.3% from January to November, negatively impacting overall export growth [8][20] Group 3: Regional Analysis - Exports to emerging markets are strong, while exports to the US are weak, with a year-on-year decline of -28.8% in November [29][56] - The share of exports to the US has decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 11.3%, while ASEAN's share increased by 1.1 percentage points to 17.5% [30][63] - If US import demand stabilizes, China's exports to the US may rebound significantly due to low base effects [30][31] Group 4: Future Export Resilience - In December, the elevated base may lead to a 2-3 percentage point adjustment pressure on year-on-year readings [4][37] - Leading indicators suggest a stable external demand environment, with the electronic supply chain likely to continue supporting growth [4][37] - The cumulative effects of monetary easing are expected to maintain a stable external demand environment, supporting strong resilience in electromechanical exports [4][38]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of China's export and import data, particularly in the context of the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and the global economic environment. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Strong Export Performance**: In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, driven by a low base from the previous year and a recovery in external demand. [2][3] 2. **Resilience in Global Electronics Cycle**: The export growth is supported by a robust global electronics cycle, with integrated circuit exports maintaining a growth rate of around 30%. [3] 3. **Demand from Emerging Economies**: Strong demand from emerging economies such as India, Latin America, and ASEAN has been a significant driver of export growth. [3] 4. **Improvement in China-Europe Trade**: Continuous improvement in China-Europe bilateral trade since Q2, alongside a mild recovery in the Eurozone economy, has created demand opportunities for Chinese consumer goods. [3] 5. **Pressure Relief for Foreign Trade Enterprises**: Recent increases in PPI and the appreciation of the RMB have alleviated the pressure on foreign trade enterprises to exchange price for volume, although uncertainties from U.S.-China trade tensions remain. [3][4] Trade Tensions and Future Outlook 1. **Impact of U.S.-China Trade Tensions**: The intensification of U.S.-China trade tensions may affect future foreign trade dynamics, with the U.S. expanding its export control list and imposing tariffs. [4][6] 2. **Limited Effectiveness of Tariffs**: Despite the planned increase in tariffs ranging from 10% to 100%, the actual impact of these measures has been limited, and it is unrealistic to exclude China from the global supply chain through tariffs. [4][6] 3. **Short-term and Long-term Perspectives**: In the short term, trade tensions may escalate, but long-term exclusion of China from global supply chains is deemed impractical. [6][7] Import Signals 1. **Strong Demand for Precious Metals**: There is strong demand for precious metals from Hong Kong, accounting for approximately 80% of imports. [5] 2. **Rapid Growth in Resource Imports**: Imports of metal minerals and energy products from resource-rich countries like Russia, Africa, and Latin America have seen rapid growth. [5] 3. **Weakness in Domestic Demand**: Imports related to domestic demand, such as machine tools, computer equipment, and cosmetics, remain low, indicating ongoing pressure on domestic consumption. [5] Additional Considerations 1. **Monitoring Future Developments**: Close attention is needed on the outcomes of the APEC meeting, U.S.-China summit discussions, and the implementation of U.S. tariff adjustments on October 1. [7]

Demand - External demand is expected to perform better than internal demand, with August exports projected to decline by 5.1% due to high base effects and tariff impacts, but the pressure is manageable due to improved external demand and market share gains[1][12] - Domestic consumption and manufacturing investment are expected to weaken, with retail sales projected to grow by only 4.4% year-on-year in August, influenced by limited use of subsidy funds[1][24] Supply - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August, indicating sustained production activity, particularly in export-oriented sectors[3][42] - Industrial output is expected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year in August, supported by resilient indicators in the export chain, such as a 3.8 percentage point increase in high furnace operation rates[4][51] Inflation - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show limited year-on-year improvement of -2.9% in August, despite rising commodity prices, due to low capacity utilization in mid and downstream sectors[5][64] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to decline by 0.4% year-on-year in August, driven by weak food prices and a high youth unemployment rate affecting rental prices[6][68]

Group 1: Demand - External demand is expected to be better than internal demand in the short term, with August exports projected to maintain resilience at 5.1% despite potential pressures from "transshipment tariffs" and "reciprocal tariffs" [2][11][100] - Internal demand shows signs of weakness, primarily due to limited use of subsidy funds, with retail sales expected to grow by only 4.4% in August [2][26][100] - Service consumption and investment are performing relatively well, driven by high travel activity and increased private investment in the service sector, with overall investment growth expected to remain stable at 1.6% [3][11][100] Group 2: Supply - Production remains robust, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.4% in August, indicating continued production activity despite some constraints from "anti-involution" policies [4][43][100] - Industries with high external demand dependency, such as textiles and specialized equipment, are experiencing higher production indices, while sectors like agriculture and automotive are lagging [4][50][100] - Industrial output is projected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year in August, supported by strong performance in the export chain [5][55][100] Group 3: Inflation - Expectations of supply contraction and rising commodity prices are likely to support a rebound in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with a projected improvement in PPI year-on-year [6][64][100] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to decline further due to weak food prices and low downstream PPI, with an anticipated drop of 0.4% year-on-year in August [8][80][100] Group 4: Outlook - The economic outlook for August centers around the resilience of external demand and the weakness of internal demand, with a projected nominal GDP growth of 3.6% and real GDP growth of 4.8% [9][91][100]

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production increased slightly, while glass production rates improved, indicating a mixed performance in industrial production[2] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate showed a marginal adjustment, reflecting ongoing challenges in the construction materials sector[2] - Steel and building materials production and apparent demand saw a month-on-month increase, suggesting a recovery in construction activity[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 0.3% year-on-year as of August 29, with a notable improvement from a -9.4% decline earlier in the month[2] - The four-week rolling index for second-hand home listing prices decreased by 0.44% as of August 18, indicating ongoing price pressures in the housing market[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 152.4 million yuan per day, up 32.2% year-on-year, reflecting strong consumer interest in entertainment[2] - Retail sales of home appliances grew by 4.7% year-on-year as of August 22, showing a recovery in consumer spending[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries increased by 12.9% year-on-year, although it showed a slight decline from previous weeks[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 4.7% year-on-year as of August 24, indicating resilience in external trade[2] - Container throughput at ports rose by 5.9% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in shipping activities[2] - South Korea's exports grew by 7.6% year-on-year in the first 20 days of August, indicating a positive trend in regional trade[2] Price Trends - The South China industrial product index fell by 0.4%, while the black raw materials and non-ferrous metals indices rose by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, indicating mixed price movements in commodities[2] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 0.9%, while spot prices fell by 0.3%, reflecting ongoing volatility in the steel market[2]

Core Insights - China's foreign trade maintained a stable growth trend in the first four months of the year, with a total import and export value of 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4][9] - In April, the total value of goods trade reached 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports at 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, and imports at 1.57 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.8% [3][9] Trade Performance - Exports in April exceeded market expectations, driven by factors such as "export grabbing" in markets outside the U.S., resilient external demand, and the timing of tariff policies [5][10] - The export growth rate in April was 8.1% in dollar terms, despite a significant decline in exports to the U.S. by 21.0%, which pulled down the overall export growth by approximately 3 percentage points [5][10] Key Trade Partners - ASEAN and the EU emerged as China's largest and second-largest trading partners, with exports to ASEAN growing by 12.6% and to the EU by 6.1%, both significantly higher than the overall foreign trade growth rate [9][10] - In April, exports to ASEAN surged by 20.8%, which helped offset the decline in exports to the U.S. [10] Sector Performance - Labor-intensive products showed low growth, with a combined monthly year-on-year change of -0.8%, while exports of general machinery and equipment, ships, and integrated circuits saw significant increases of 17.0%, 36.1%, and 20.2% respectively [6][9] Private Sector Contribution - The share of private enterprises in foreign trade continued to rise, accounting for 56.9% of total trade value in the first four months, with exports from private enterprises growing by 8.1% [10]