热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 美联储威廉姆斯表示，货币政策已为2026年做好充分准备。预计美国失业率将在2025年底降至4.5%。 劳动力市场风险已上升，而通胀风险已缓解。美联储的政策已从温紧缩转向中性。预计通胀率将在2026 年升至2.5%，2027年降至2%。预计会积极使用常备回购便利工具来管理流动性。美联储理事米兰重 申，美联储的政策立场对经济构成不必要的限制，认为剔除"幻影通胀"后，"潜在"的通胀水平已接近联 储的目标。地缘方面，德国、法国、英国、意大利、波兰、芬兰、挪威、瑞典、荷兰及欧盟机构领导人 发表联合声明称，将组建一支"多国部队"支持乌克兰。声明称"该部队将协助乌克兰重建武装力量、保 障乌克兰领空安全，并提升海上安全，相关行动也将包括在乌克兰境内展开的军事行动"。 贵金属套利跟踪： 期现价差：2025-12-15，国内溢价方面，昨日黄金国内溢价为-10.84元/克，白银国内溢价为-894.90元/千 克。金银比价：昨日上期所金银主力合约价格比约为66.46，较前一交易日变动-1.42%，外盘金银比价 为66.96，较上 ...

"美国政府停摆并不常见，因此当劳工统计局要完成规模如此庞大的非农就业报告统计工作时，总会存 在一定的不确定性。" 求职平台玻璃门（Glassdoor）首席经济学家丹尼尔・赵表示，"因此，我认为在 解读这份报告时应保持审慎，做好应对各种结果的准备。" 受美国史上持续时间最长的政府停摆事件余波影响，11 月非农就业报告的发布时间出现异常 —— 并非 惯例的每月第一个周五，而是推迟至 12 月中旬的一个周二。 为何会出现 "一个半" 就业报告？ 这场长达 43 天的联邦资金断供风波，恰逢美国企业和家庭面临关键经济节点的时刻，直接导致大量核 心经济数据的发布陷入停滞。 过去一个月，此前积压的经济数据正逐步解冻，而本周更是迎来集中发布潮：未来三天内，零售销售、 通胀以及就业市场的多份重磅报告将陆续出炉。 其中，非农就业报告与 11 月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告还带着一份 "假日惊喜"—— 两份报告都将附 带约半数的 10 月数据。 若非这一情况前所未有，倒真有点像节日季里常见的 "买一送一享五折" 促销活动。 市场预计，周二早间发布的非农就业报告将显示，11 月美国非农部门仅新增就业岗位 4 万个，失业率 将稳定在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors should reconsider their expectations regarding interest rate cuts, as further cuts may indicate a deteriorating economic situation rather than a positive development [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced its third interest rate cut of the year, interpreted as a measure to prevent a collapse in the labor market [2]. - Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, suggests that if the Fed continues to cut rates, it may signal underlying economic issues [2][3]. - The core inflation rate remains stubbornly at 2.8%, above the Fed's 2% target, while unemployment rates are rising, complicating the Fed's dual mandate [3][4]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Sahm emphasizes the potential vulnerabilities in the labor market, noting that the unemployment rate has risen for three consecutive months and hiring has slowed to levels that could increase unemployment [6]. - Initial jobless claims are considered a lagging indicator, meaning they often spike after a recession has begun, making them unreliable for predicting future labor market conditions [6][7]. Group 3: Future Policy Implications - There is a risk that the Fed may wait too long to act, which could lead to missed opportunities for timely intervention [7]. - Sahm anticipates that Powell will keep the possibility of further easing on the table but will stress that any additional cuts require strong justification [8]. - The upcoming employment report could significantly influence Powell's decisions, as premature announcements regarding rate cuts could put him in a difficult position [9].

12月15日，市场预期11月就业数据疲软，金价震荡走强，纽约金价强势突破4370美元关口，截至A股收 盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4378美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨1.37%，黄金股ETF(159562) 涨0.92%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)跌0.69%。 DWS Americas固收部门主管George Catrambone指出，对明年的走势而言，最重要的单一数据可能是周 二公布的就业数据，劳动力市场的走向将决定利率走势。从本周数据发布前疲软的劳动力指标来看，降 息幅度可能相当大。 消息面上，本周美国将公布一系列因美国政府停摆而延迟的关键数据，11月就业数据将于周二揭晓，市 场预期11月非农就业人口变动新增5万人，美联储官员估计失业率将在今年达到4.5%的峰值，随后在 2026年底回落至4.4%。近日，美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔指出，就业市场承压，就业岗位创造实际上可 能已转为负增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, with some dissent among members regarding the decision, while also announcing the restart of reserve management purchases [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's new interest rate is set at 3.75%, down from the previous 4.00% [2] - There were three dissenting votes during the meeting, with two members opposing the rate cut and one advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2] - The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates that 6 out of 19 officials do not support the rate cut, and the median path for 2026 remains unchanged [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 6 were reported at 236,000, higher than the expected 220,000 [2] - The U.S. trade deficit for September was revised to $59.3 billion, which is narrower than the expected $63.3 billion, marking the smallest deficit since June 2020 [2] - China's CPI for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, while the M2 money supply growth was reported at 8%, below the market expectation of 8.2% [2] Group 3: Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the Bank of England's interest rate decision on December 18, the European Central Bank's deposit rate announcement, and the U.S. November CPI and non-farm payroll data release on December 18 [3]

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宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 鹰派降息变鸽派，中期路径仍待就业数据 决定 ——2025 年 12 月 fomc 点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 13 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 12 月鹰派降息或在预期之内，未来货币政 | 2025-12-09 | | --- | --- | | ...

瑞典统计局12月12日发布新闻稿称，2025年11月，瑞典失业人数和失业率均有所上升，经季节调整和数 据平滑处理后，失业率为9.0%。这是本年迄今第三个月达到9%的年度高点。其中，15至24岁青年失业 人数为15.5万人，青年失业率为23.8%。 ...

在美联储对抗通胀与限制失业的两难抉择中，后者在周三的会议上占据了上风。如果劳动力市场的疲软 通过就业数据的明显高估而变得更加明显，这一方在进入2026年时可能仍将保持优势。 短期来看，对就业状况的担忧促使联邦公开市场委员会以9比3的投票结果，决定将央行的关键利率下调 25个基点。展望未来，有迹象表明，如果劳动力市场持续疲软，政策制定者将更倾向于进一步降息。 美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上多次提到，近几个月就业增长很可能已经是负数，这 种状况将为实施更宽松的货币政策提供理由。 "劳动力市场逐渐降温的趋势仍在继续，"鲍威尔说。"家庭和企业的调查都显示劳动力的供给和需求在 下降。所以，我认为可以说劳动力市场继续在逐步降温，只是比我们预期的略微慢一点。" 问题的关键在于美国劳工统计局每月对企业在开业和关闭时如何影响劳动力市场进行的估算。这个被称 为"出生-死亡模型"的估算，是在推测因开业而增加的就业岗位和因关闭而减少的岗位。 "在一个就业创造为负值的世界里，我认为我们需要非常仔细地关注这一情况，并确保我们的政策不会 压制就业创造，"鲍威尔说。 随着美联储进入2026年，在支持劳动力市场与控制通胀之间取得 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The Fed ended 2025 with continued interest rate cuts, totaling 75 basis points for the year. The policy focus shifted from concerns about inflation rebound to addressing employment downward pressure. The threshold for restarting rate cuts in 2026 is expected to increase, depending more on the pace of employment slowdown and the effectiveness of alleviating commodity inflation related to tariffs. [5][30] - The Fed's restart of RMP is expected to ease the previous liquidity tightening situation. However, internal disagreements among officials have intensified, and with key events such as the Fed chairmanship change and mid - term elections in 2026, the stability of monetary policy has decreased. It is expected that the Fed will maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude in the first half of 2026, and changes in the second half may depend on the new chairman's policy orientation and the economic outlook due to fiscal expansion. [5][30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Decision and Market Reaction - On the early morning of December 11, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5% - 3.75%, and the reserve balance rate and discount rate to 3.65% and 3.75% respectively. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, a cumulative 75 basis points, reducing the federal funds target rate from 4.5% to 3.75%. [4][7] - After the interest rate decision was announced, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 4.18%. The three major U.S. stock indexes rose, and the U.S. dollar index briefly rose above 99 points. During the press conference, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield turned downward, the U.S. stock rally continued to expand, the U.S. dollar index returned to around 98.5, COMEX gold first fell then rose, and crude oil prices declined. [8] 2. Interest Rate Statement - Focused on labor market pressure, policy outlook, and Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). The description of the unemployment rate was changed to "the unemployment rate has risen as of September". The statement added the expression "the extent and timing" for future interest rate adjustments, last seen in December 2024, which may imply a higher threshold for future rate cuts. It also added that the committee believes the reserve balance has fallen to an adequate level and will buy short - term U.S. Treasuries as needed to maintain a continuous and adequate supply of reserves. [4][12][16] 3. Economic Forecast - GDP growth forecasts for the next four years were raised, while the unemployment rate forecast for the following year and inflation forecasts for this and next year were slightly lowered. The December dot - plot predicts one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, with the median remaining the same as in September. However, there is a high degree of dispersion among the 19 Fed officials providing forecasts, indicating significant disagreements on the subsequent rate - cut magnitude and increasing policy uncertainty. [18][19] 4. Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) - Core Purpose: To increase the bank system's reserve scale by purchasing short - term Treasuries and other assets, addressing the recent surge in funding prices. Since 2023, the scale of the overnight reverse repurchase tool ONRRP has dropped significantly to near zero, and the bank reserve scale has returned to the 2020 level. The Fed's long - term balance sheet reduction and the U.S. government shutdown have also drained short - term liquidity, with the SOFR remaining persistently higher than the EFFR since September 2025, with the spread reaching a maximum of 36 basis points. [2][20][22] - Bond - buying Operation: Starting from December 12, it plans to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills over the next 30 days. The subsequent purchase amount will be adjusted according to the reserve supply outlook and seasonal fluctuations. According to Powell, the neutral monthly purchase level may be between $20 billion and $25 billion. [2][22] - Historical Operation: The last time the Fed carried out RMP was in 2019. In mid - September 2019, the SOFR was nearly 300 basis points higher than the EFFR. The Fed announced the launch of RMP on October 11, 2019, buying Treasury bills at a rate of $60 billion per month to maintain the reserve level at or above that of early September 2019. [2][22] - Comparison with QE: Unlike QE, which lowers long - term interest rates by buying long - term Treasuries and then reduces borrowing costs, RMP aims to replenish the bank system's reserves by buying short - term Treasuries, ensuring an adequate reserve scale without indicating a change in the monetary policy stance. [3][23] 5. Labor Market - Both labor supply and demand are slowing down, and employment data may overestimate the actual situation. From June to September 2025, the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 4.4%. Since April, the average monthly non - farm employment increase was about 40,000, but after adjustment, it may actually have decreased by about 20,000 per month. The continuous and gradual cooling of the labor market might be the main reason for the continued rate cuts. [5][24] 6. Inflation - Non - tariff factors have made positive progress, and inflation caused by tariff factors may peak in the first quarter of 2026. It is maintained that the impact of tariffs on inflation is one - time rather than continuous. In September, the U.S. core CPI year - on - year decreased from 3.1% in August to 3.0%, and the month - on - month growth rate dropped from 0.3% to 0.2%. Among sub - items, prices of tariff - sensitive goods such as clothing, furniture, and entertainment products increased month - on - month to varying degrees, while the housing rent in core services decreased, indicating a continued decline in service inflation, but the spill - over effect of commodity inflation caused by tariffs still exists. [5][27]