华尔街正屏息以待北京时间今晚21:30公布的美国12月非农就业报告。市场迫切希望从本次数据中寻找未来政策路径的线索，尤其是关于就业市场 的"温和回升"是否足以支持美联储在1月暂停降息步伐。 目前的市场共识预期显示，12月非农就业新增人数预计为7万至7.5万人之间，较11月的6.4万人小幅回升。尽管新增就业人数不算强劲，但足以缓 解市场对经济急剧衰退的担忧。这种"温和回升"的局面，使得劳动力市场呈现出"招聘放缓，但未见裁员潮"的特征。 高盛Ronnie Walker团队在8日发布的报告中预测，新增就业人数为7万人，与市场共识一致。该行分析指出，大数据指标显示私营部门就业增长步 伐温和，且假日零售招聘向12月的转移可能带来约1.5万人的提振。然而，负面因素依然存在：联邦政府的持续招聘冻结预计将导致政府部门就业 人数减少5000人；此外，调查初期的寒冷天气和降雪可能对建筑及休闲酒店业造成约2万人的拖累。 摩根士丹利Michael T Gapen团队则在7日的报告中给出了略显乐观的7.5万人预测。该行经济学家认为，尽管招聘速度较去年有所放缓，但并未出 现裁员加速的迹象，目前的劳动力市场特征是"招聘缓慢，但无裁员"。此 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming November CPI report is anticipated to have limited impact on the stock market, with traders expecting a volatility of only 0.7% for the S&P 500 index, significantly lower than the 1% average seen in previous reports [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted towards labor market signals rather than minor fluctuations in inflation rates, indicating a potential for interest rate stability in the near future [3][4] - The reliability of the November CPI report is questioned due to the absence of October data, which may affect the overall assessment of inflation trends [3][4] Market Sentiment - Market participants are adopting a more indifferent stance towards the CPI data, suggesting that it may be deemed either unimportant or unreliable [3][4] - The sentiment is further influenced by the ongoing low employment growth and rising unemployment rates, which reflect a cooling labor market [4][5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in January, as policymakers are likely to wait for more comprehensive economic data before making decisions [3][4] - Some Fed officials continue to emphasize the importance of inflation, with concerns about tariffs impacting prices, while others focus on employment risks [4][5] Expectations for CPI Data - Analysts predict that the year-on-year CPI increase will remain around 3%, with any significant deviation potentially surprising traders [5][6] - The importance of CPI reports is diminishing as the Federal Reserve prepares for a leadership change, which may lead to a more aggressive stance on interest rate cuts [5][6] Seasonal Factors - Seasonal trends may also contribute to the muted expectations for the CPI data, as the stock market approaches a traditional bull market phase [7] - The S&P 500 index has recently experienced a decline, closing just 1.5% below its historical high, indicating a potential for upward movement [8]

近三年来，美国月度消费者价格报告一直是股票交易员极为关注的联邦数据。如今，投资者等待周四公 布的11月通胀报告时，大多带着一种无动于衷的情绪，而非以往的焦灼不安。 根据巴克莱银行汇编的数据，期权交易员押注标普500指数将在任一方向波动0.7%。这一幅度显著低于 截至9月份的12份报告所引发的1%平均实际波动幅度。 市场情绪转变有充分理由。美联储当前对劳动力市场疲软迹象的反应，比对通胀率的小幅变动更为敏 感。周二的数据显示就业市场依然低迷，为明年降息敞开了大门。 原定于12月10日发布、现推迟至周四的11月报告，其数据也比往常更"陈旧"，并且由于政府停摆导致调 查中断，可靠性可能低于正常水平。此外，10月份的CPI报告将不会发布。 巴克莱银行股票战术策略全球主管亚历山大阿尔特（300825）曼表示："市场已经在基于一种假设运 作，即这份报告要么是'无足轻重之事'，要么从数据收集角度看质量存疑，会被市场忽略。" 根据美国劳工统计局的说法，由于缺乏10月数据，这份CPI报告只能提供通胀的部分概况，无法进行整 体指数和核心指数的月度比较。 该报告不太可能改变美联储1月政策会议的结果。投资者预计央行将在那次会议上维持利 ...

美国期权市场正迈向连续第六年交易量创新高，但业内部分知名机构愈发担忧，该市场过度依赖少数银行为最大做市商提供交易担保的模式暗藏隐 患。 所有美国上市期权交易均需通过期权清算公司（The Options Clearing Corp.，简称OCC）完成——这家中央对手方在交易繁忙时段日均处理逾7000万 份合约。交易由OCC成员提交至清算所，这些成员负责协助交易清算，并在客户破产时承担担保人责任。 该领域的头部集中度极高。在数十家成员机构中，2025年第二季度前五大机构贡献了OCC违约基金近半数资金。市场参与者指出，美国银行、高盛 集团和荷兰银行是三大主导机构，承接了做市商的大部分持仓——几乎每笔期权交易都需做市商作为对手方。如此庞大的交易量集中于少数机构， 意味着一旦其中一家陷入危机，可能引发大范围损失。 今年期权交易量飙升 美国银行和高盛均拒绝置评，荷兰银行未立即回应置评请求。 仅有少数清算经纪商能够进行期货和期权之间的交叉保证金交易——通过相关工具的反向持仓相互抵消，可降低所需保证金规模。例如，交易员若 持有标普500迷你期货多头，同时持有标普500指数期权空头，其净风险敞口将相应缩减。 "仅有少数成员机构 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国期权市场交易量有望连续第六年创下历史新高，与此同时，业内一些知名机构 对市场过度依赖少数银行来为最大的做市商交易提供担保感到日益不安。 更紧迫的风险在于，随着OCC 10月日均成交量同比激增52%，这些银行可能难以支撑上市衍生品市场 的爆发式增长。这导致做市商"自行清算"的趋势上升——即做市商直接成为清算所会员，但鉴于做市商 的资本充足率低于银行，这种模式本身也暗藏风险。 美国银行和高盛均拒绝置评，荷兰银行未立即回应置评请求。 目前仅有少数清算经纪商能够进行期货与期权间的跨保证金操作——即通过相关工具中相反的头寸相互 抵消，从而降低所需的保证金总额。例如，若交易者做多标普500 E迷你期货，同时做空标普500指数期 权，其净风险头寸便会降低。 所有在美国上市的期权交易均需通过期权清算公司(OCC)进行结算。这家中央对手方在繁忙时段每日处 理的合约量超过7000万笔。交易由其会员提交至OCC——这些会员不仅协助交易进入清算所，还在客 户破产时充当担保人。 但目前，清算业务呈现明显的头部集中格局。在数十家会员机构中，2025年第二季度排名前五的机构贡 献了OCC违约基金近半数资金。市场参与 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that multiple technical indicators show the market is in a dangerous zone, with calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December. However, some positive factors are emerging, suggesting that concerns over economic growth may be overstated and liquidity conditions could improve [1][3]. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Despite the S&P 500 index only being a few percentage points off its historical highs, market trading sentiment has plummeted. Goldman Sachs' chief trader noted that a recent 100 basis point rebound was viewed as one of the "most failed" rebounds in recent years, with trading floor atmosphere resembling that of a market crash [3]. - Various technical indicators from Goldman Sachs show the market is in a precarious state: liquidity is drying up as volatility rises, the S&P 500's Gamma value has turned negative, and defensive sector rotation is intensifying, signaling panic [3][7]. Fund Flows and Sector Rotation - The U.S. stock market has seen buying pressure for three consecutive weeks, but investors are shifting their allocations towards defensive sectors, particularly healthcare and durable goods, while selling off "unprofitable" sectors [4]. - Analysis of institutional holdings shows that hedge funds and mutual funds are consistently overweight in healthcare while being underweight in information technology, a rare consensus [6]. Systematic Selling Pressure - The S&P 500 index has recently breached short-term thresholds, indicating that systematic selling pressure is just beginning. If the market remains flat for a week, it could lead to $50 billion in selling pressure, and $62 billion if flat for a month [6]. - Goldman Sachs' futures strategy team suggests that the current situation is akin to "the first half of the first inning, with two outs but the bases loaded," indicating that selling pressure is likely to escalate [6]. Volatility and Derivatives Market - Multiple stock volatility indicators have issued warnings, with the "volatility stress" index reaching 9.5 out of 10. Top-tier liquidity has evaporated, and implied volatility surged following Nvidia's earnings report [9]. - The average daily trading volume of S&P 500 options has reached $3.5 trillion, surpassing the total market value of the Russell 2000 index, indicating heightened market activity [10]. Emerging Positive Factors - Despite the prevailing market gloom, Goldman Sachs identifies several potential positive factors: concerns over economic growth may be exaggerated, clarity in Federal Reserve policy, improving liquidity support, and the potential for AI productivity gains extending beyond the tech sector [12]. - The Atlanta Fed's latest GDP forecast for Q3 stands at 4.1%, a notably high figure, especially given the classic head-and-shoulders pattern in cyclical/defensive sector ratios [12]. - The liquidity situation may improve as recent pressures have prompted the Federal Reserve to consider resuming bond purchases to expand its balance sheet [12]. AI Productivity and Risk Appetite - The AI productivity theme has gained traction in client discussions, with the potential for companies to enhance productivity and generate more earnings, which could benefit non-tech sectors within the S&P 500 [13]. - Many clients view high-beta assets like Bitcoin as risk appetite indicators, suggesting that a recovery in Bitcoin's performance could signal a market rebound by year-end [13].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index options volatility is on the rise, indicating increasing market pressure after a month of turbulence, with the index ending a three-week streak of gains [1] Group 1: Market Volatility - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) surged above 20, reflecting heightened market stress [1] - The S&P 500 index's recent pullback reversed a trend of record highs, with simultaneous increases in spot prices and volatility [1] - Factors contributing to increased market volatility include significant fluctuations in individual stock earnings reports and a lack of U.S. government economic data [1][3] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly aware of market fragility, with minimal factors causing significant declines in the S&P 500 index [1] - There is a notable trend of investors buying call options while hedging against downside risks, indicating a dual approach to market participation [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. government shutdowns and congressional gridlock is also contributing to market volatility [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The VIX index remains elevated compared to the same period last year, driven by a combination of rising spot prices and increasing volatility [3] - Analysts suggest that heightened asset price volatility is a clear sign of a potential bubble, reminiscent of the early 2000s tech bubble [3][4] - The actual volatility of the S&P 500 index has more than doubled in the past month, reaching its highest level since June [5] Group 4: Earnings Season Impact - During the early earnings season, individual stock volatility exceeded that of the broader market index, with the Cboe S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index hitting historical highs [7] - As the earnings season progresses, the trend of rising individual stock volatility may continue to narrow due to a decrease in news surrounding individual stocks [7]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index options are heavily concentrated around the 7000 strike price, indicating cautious sentiment among market participants regarding further upward movement before year-end, despite a potential 19% increase by 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - Wall Street remains generally bullish on U.S. stocks, but there are valid reasons for caution, including comments from Fed Chair Powell about the uncertainty of a third rate cut [4]. - Concerns over the latest earnings from tech giants have raised doubts about spending in the artificial intelligence sector [4]. - Signs of economic slowdown and cracks in the high-risk credit market have led to questions about the health of U.S. consumers [4][6]. Group 2: Psychological Factors - The concentration of options at the 7000 strike price can be explained by investor behavior, as traders often gravitate towards round numbers, which naturally attract more trading activity [5]. - The 7000 strike price is viewed as a significant psychological level, drawing attention from traders [5][6]. Group 3: Market Structure - The complex structure of the options market contributes to the concentration of positions at the 7000 strike price, with about half of the open contracts potentially linked to a strategy known as "box spread" [7]. - The presence of large institutional players, referred to as "whales," who are heavily involved in selling call options, also affects the market structure and leads to unusual concentration at specific strike prices [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - In light of limited upward potential for the index, some market participants suggest focusing on individual stocks rather than the broader market [8]. - For investors who missed out on gains in the AI sector, individual stock options may be a more effective tool than betting on broader indices [8].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index is expected to face limited upward movement, with a potential increase of only 2.5% to reach the psychological level of 7000 points by the end of the year, despite a strong performance in the U.S. stock market since the beginning of 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Investor sentiment remains bullish, with hedge funds and institutional investors betting on the S&P 500 index breaking the 7000-point mark by year-end, driven by positive signs in U.S.-China trade, expectations of interest rate cuts, and improved earnings forecasts related to AI [1][2]. - The options market shows a concentration of bets around the 7000-point level, indicating a significant psychological milestone for the index, which could suggest a 19% increase for the entire year of 2025 [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - Despite the overall bullish outlook, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of the economic growth, with signs of a slowdown and cracks in high-risk assets within the credit market, raising questions about consumer health and credit support [5][6]. - The performance of the S&P 500 index has been heavily reliant on a few tech giants, known as the "Magnificent Seven," which account for approximately 35% of the index's weight. A downturn in any of these stocks could lead to a concerning "quasi-bear market" atmosphere [6][7]. Group 3: Options Market Dynamics - The popularity of the 7000-point strike price is attributed to its psychological appeal among investors, with many opting for options trading near large round numbers due to their perceived "magnetic attraction" [8][9]. - The complexity of the derivatives market, including strategies like box spreads and whale trades, contributes to the concentration of open interest at the 7000-point level, indicating a mix of bullish and cautious strategies among institutional investors [8][9].

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has shown strong performance this year, but the derivatives market suggests limited momentum ahead [1] - The S&P 500 index options are concentrated around the 7000-point mark for December, indicating a potential 19% increase by 2025 [1] - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of the market rally, particularly due to economic slowdown signs and the concentration of gains among a few stocks [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,822.34 points, leaving only a 2.5% gap to reach the 7000-point psychological level [1] - Despite overall optimism on Wall Street, there are cautious sentiments due to various economic indicators [1] Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a third interest rate cut is not yet determined, contributing to market caution [1] - Signs of economic slowdown are emerging, raising questions about the health of U.S. consumers [1] Stock Concentration - A significant portion of the S&P 500's gains has come from a small number of stocks, which raises concerns about market stability if these stocks weaken [1] - Some strategists have begun to lower their optimistic forecasts following Powell's recent comments, despite the typically strong performance in the last two months of the year [1] Investor Behavior - Investors often concentrate their positions near psychological levels, such as the 7000-point mark, which is seen as a popular strike price [1]