1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has signs of escalation, and oil prices have rebounded significantly. However, under the expectation of weak supply and demand, there is also significant pressure for oil prices to continue rising. If there is no further positive news, oil prices may face a correction. PX supply has increased significantly recently, and the supply - demand margin has weakened, but it still has support in the short term. PTA's supply - demand margin has also weakened, but it has support at low levels. Ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the short term. Short - fiber has a situation of weak supply and demand, and bottle - chip's supply - demand is expected to improve in June [2]. - **Methanol Industry**: The supply of methanol is generally in a loose pattern, and the demand side has a situation where MTO has mostly increased its load but downstream profits have deteriorated. The price can be operated in the range of 2200 - 2350 [21]. - **Styrene Industry**: The price of pure benzene has risen slightly, and the supply of styrene has increased. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventories have decreased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the short - selling opportunities caused by the resonance of raw material ends in the medium term [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The supply of caustic soda has declined recently, and there is pressure on supply and demand in the short term. It is recommended to exit the 7 - 9 positive spread. PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a short - selling idea in the long term [71]. - **PE and PP Industry**: PE has a small increase in domestic supply and a decrease in imports, with limited supply pressure in June. PP has new capacity coming on - stream in June - July, and there is significant pressure on inventory accumulation [74]. - **Urea Industry**: The domestic urea market has a lackluster trading atmosphere, and the futures and spot prices continue to decline. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the adjustment of summer agricultural fertilizer preparation and export policies can improve the situation [82]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: Overnight crude oil prices oscillated and declined due to the fading of geopolitical risk premiums. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish approach, pay attention to the expansion opportunities of the monthly spread on the arbitrage side, and consider buying a straddle structure on the options side [86]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On June 12, Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.36 per barrel, down 0.6% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (July) was at $68.15 per barrel, up 0.2%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $585 per ton, up 2.3% [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6955 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; FDY150/96 price was 7210 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; DTY150/48 price was 8120 yuan per ton, up 0.3% [2]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX was at $818 per ton, up 0.7%; PX spot price (in RMB) was 6770 yuan per ton, down 0.5% [2]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price was 4855 yuan per ton, up 0.6%; TA futures 2509 was at 4620 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. - **MEG - related**: MEG port inventory was 63.4 million tons, up 2.1%; MEG to - port expectation was 12.8 million tons, up from 10.8 million tons [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate was 75.1%, up 3.1%; China PX operating rate was 87.0%, up 4.9%; PTA operating rate was 79.7%, up 4.0% [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price was 2353 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; MA2509 closing price was 2290 yuan per ton, up 0.35%; Taicang basis was 85 yuan per ton, up 6.92% [21]. - **Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.912%, up 2.33%; methanol port inventory was 65.2 million tons, up 12.22%; methanol social inventory was 103.1%, up 8.37% [21]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.14%, up 0.83%; downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 85.13%, up 0.72% [21]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.4 per barrel, down 0.6%; CFR Japan naphtha was at $585 per ton, up 2.3%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was at $780 per ton, unchanged [23]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene East China spot price was 7815 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; EB2507 was at 7353 yuan per ton, up 0.1%; EB basis was 462 yuan per ton, up 12.4% [24]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Styrene CFR China was at $910 per ton, up 0.2%; styrene import profit was 174.6 yuan per ton, up 34.3% [25]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operating rate was 77.2%, up 5.9%; styrene operating rate was 72.3%, up 0.4%; styrene integrated profit was 162.6 yuan per ton, down 61.2% [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2718.8 yuan per ton, unchanged; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4720 yuan per ton, unchanged [67]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda was at $410 per ton, unchanged; PVC CFR Southeast Asia was at $670 per ton, unchanged [67][68]. - **Supply - side Operating Rates and Profits**: Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.9%, up 0.8%; PVC total operating rate was 77.5%, up 3.8%; external - procurement calcium - carbide - based PVC profit was - 912 yuan per ton, up 13.3% [69]. - **Demand - side Operating Rates**: Alumina industry operating rate was 78.8%, up 0.7%; viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 80.6%, unchanged [70]. - **Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 23.3 million tons, up 11.9%; PVC upstream factory inventory was 39.8 million tons, up 3.5% [71]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price was 7086 yuan per ton, up 0.16%; PP2601 closing price was 6918 yuan per ton, up 0.14%; East China PP drawbench spot price was 7040 yuan per ton, unchanged [74]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate was 79.2%, up 2.27%; PP device operating rate was 78.6%, up 2.1% [74]. - **Inventories**: PE enterprise inventory was 50.9 million tons, down 1.74%; PP enterprise inventory was 58.1 million tons, down 3.93% [74]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: 01 contract was at 1635 yuan per ton, down 0.73%; 05 contract was at 1664 yuan per ton, down 1.25%; 09 contract was at 1646 yuan per ton, down 1.26% [77]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: 01 contract - 05 contract was - 29 yuan per ton, up 23.68%; UR - MA main contract was - 655 yuan per ton, down 3.15% [78]. - **Main Positions**: Long top 20 was 176769 lots, up 6.68%; short top 20 was 197913 lots, up 8.10%; long - short ratio was 0.89, down 1.32% [79]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) were at 900 yuan per ton, down 5.26%; synthetic ammonia (Shandong) was at 2239 yuan per ton, down 0.18% [80]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Shandong (small particles) was at 1740 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; FOB China: small particles were at $360 per ton, unchanged [81]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output was 20.68 million tons, up 1.00%; domestic urea weekly output was 141.32 million tons, down 1.82%; domestic urea factory inventory (weekly) was 117.71 million tons, up 13.69% [82]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent was at $69.36 per barrel, down 0.59%; WTI was at $68.79 per barrel, up 1.10%; Brent M1 - M3 was $1.69 per barrel, up 3.05% [86]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB was 215.90 cents per gallon, up 0.75%; NYM ULSD was 220.77 cents per gallon, up 0.87%; ICE Gasoil was $645 per ton, up 1.45% [86]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread was $21.89 per barrel, down 0.34%; European diesel crack spread was $20.55 per barrel, down 1.32% [86].

多重因素推动油价上涨，后续走势如何？ 金十期货6月10日讯，近期，地缘冲突加剧推动市场风险偏好回升，过去一周国际油价涨逾6%。 1. 银河期货：本轮中美高层会议可能释放积极信号，一旦中美贸易摩擦缓和，宏观风险偏好将得到提 升，利多油价。随着需求旺季来临，投资者需持续关注原油去库幅度以及下游油品的消费表现。只有需 求端的强预期兑现，才能支持油价持续上行。 2. 申银万国期货：后市投资者需重点关注三大因素：一是美伊谈判和俄乌谈判的最新进展；二是 OPEC+增产节奏；三是美国关税政策，若全球贸易摩擦缓和，原油需求有望增加30万桶/日以上。短期 季节性需求增长将继续支撑油价，但随着OPEC+产能逐步释放，长期油价走势偏空。 3. 海通期货：原油市场供需两端呈现高弹性特征，当前处于原油消费旺季，北美供应量下降缓解了 OPEC+增产带来的压力，宏观和地缘因素则推动油价反弹。但这些支撑油价走强的因素多为短期利 多，地缘政治和宏观经济形势仍存在较大的不确定性。鉴于当前处于原油消费旺季，短期内油价大幅下 跌的可能性较小，大概率维持区间震荡走势。 ...

新华财经纽约6月6日电（记者刘亚南）美国5月非农就业数据和提振市场人气，国际油价在隔夜市场小 幅走弱，6日早盘明显上涨，午间窄幅盘整，收盘时国际油价均明显上涨。 美国劳工部6日早间公布的数据显示，今年5月美国失业率维持在4.2%不变，非农业部门新增就业岗位 为13.9万，低于前一个月向下修订后的14.7万，但高于市场共识预计的12.9万。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.21美元，收于每桶64.58美元，涨幅 为1.91%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.13美元，收于每桶66.47美元，涨幅为1.73%。 市场分析师弗拉基米尔·泽尔诺夫当日早些时候表示，美国公布强劲就业数据后，油价将测试新的高 点。 惠誉解决方案旗下研究机构BMI分析师表示，美国可能增加对委内瑞拉制裁以限制其原油出口以及以色 列可能打击伊朗基础设施给油价带来额外的上涨风险。 BMI分析师说，不过，石油需求的走弱和产油国整体增加供应将在未来几个季度给油价带来下行压力。 汇丰银行分析人士表示，欧佩克+将在今年8月和9月分别把日均原油供应量再提高41万桶和27.4万桶， 10月至12月每月上调幅度预计回到常规 ...

BMI（惠誉子公司）分析师在本周五的一份报告中指出："美国可能增加对委内瑞拉的制裁以限制原油 出口，以及以色列可能对伊朗基础设施发动袭击的潜在风险，都增加了油价上行的风险。" 但BMI分析师也指出，石油需求减弱以及欧佩克+和非欧佩克产油国增产，都将在未来几个季度增加油 价下行压力。 全球最大石油出口国沙特阿拉伯已将七月份对亚洲的原油价格下调至近两个月来的低点。此前，欧佩克 +同意在七月将产量提高41.1万桶/日，此次降价幅度小于市场预期。 沙特曾力推更大的增产幅度，这是其夺回市场份额并规范欧佩克+成员国（包括石油输出国组织及其盟 友俄罗斯）中超额生产国的整体策略的一部分。 包括Kim Fustier在内的汇丰银行分析师表示："根据我们的估计，随着夏季石油需求上升并在七月至八 月达到峰值，与欧佩克+的增产相匹配，市场在第二季度和第三季度将达到平衡。此后，欧佩克+加速 增产应会使市场在2025年第四季度出现比此前预测更大的盈余。" 汇丰研究称，欧佩克+预计将在下次会议上同意8月和9月两次大幅增产。预计在此期间，欧佩克+将分 别将日产量提高4.1万桶和27.4万桶。该行分析师表示："我们新的预期是，假设从10月到1 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI | 主力 | 63.36 | 62.74 | 63.96 | 62.17 | -1.06 | 30.22 | | Brent | 主力 | 65.52 | 64.91 | 65.95 | 64.27 | -1.10 | 37.63 | | SC | 主力（元/桶） | 466.7 | 463.7 | 469.8 | 460.5 | -0.83 | 13.50 | 数据来源：wind,建信期货研究发展部 ...

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 05 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： 二、沙特希望继续增产 据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月继续加速石油 增产，因为沙特更加重视夺回失去的市场份额。知情人士称，沙特欧 佩克+中占据越来越大的主导地位，希望该组织在 8 月和可能的 9 月 至少增加 41.1 万桶/日的产量。 三、关注伊核协议 据纽约时报报道，特朗普政府正提议达成一项协议，允许伊朗继 续进行低浓度铀浓缩活动，同时美国和其他国家将制定更详细的计 划，以阻止伊朗发展核武器，同时允许其获得用于新核电站的核燃料。 伊朗官员表示，将在几天后做出回应。 四、后市展望 关注沙特希望继续增产及伊核协议，油价当前位置震荡。后期随 着石油季节性旺季到来，油价存在一定向上动力，不过上升空间不大， 上方压力来自于 OPEC+增产决心。远期来看，由于供应端维持增长趋 势，而需求受制于经济复苏前景低迷以及新能源的替代，油价仍有下 挫空间。 Z0017388 沙特希望继续扩大增产，油价受挫 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格下滑 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated. OPEC+ is discussing a large - scale production increase in July without a final decision. The fifth round of US - Iran negotiations ended without a conclusive result. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased this week, while US commercial crude oil seasonally increased, with absolute inventory lower than the annual average and slight increases in gasoline and diesel inventories. In the short term, refinery profits are in high - level fluctuation, refinery operations have risen as expected, leading indicators of US production have declined, the US - Iran negotiation is deadlocked, and the US continues to impose sanctions on Iran and Russia, so oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward. In the medium - to - long term, crude oil remains bearish due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From May 21 to May 27, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated, with a decrease in the latest data; BRENT prices decreased by $0.65; OMAN prices decreased by $0.73; domestic gasoline prices increased by $30.00; Japanese naphtha - BRT increased by $5.65; Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by $1.65; the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange FU decreased by 65 points; and the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange BU decreased by 10 points [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Trump warned Netanyahu not to take actions that could jeopardize the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the negotiations fail. - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister said that OPEC+ has not discussed a 410,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in July. The G7 and the EU's plan to tighten the Russian oil price cap to $50 per barrel is unacceptable. - Goldman Sachs predicts that non - OPEC shale oil production (excluding Russia) may accelerate to 1 million barrels per day in the next two years, and new natural gas projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar may increase OPEC's LNG production to an average of 200,000 barrels per day per year [5]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending May 16, US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 843,000 barrels to 400.5 million barrels, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels to 443 million barrels. US domestic crude oil production increased by 500 barrels per day to 1.3392 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 138,000 barrels per day to 350,700 barrels per day. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, with an increase in both gasoline and diesel from major refineries and a decrease from local refineries. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, while that of local refineries decreased [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term neutral for oil prices, medium - term bearish allocation [3] Core View - As the OPEC meeting approaches, the market is concerned about whether OPEC will announce further production increases in July. However, since OPEC announced accelerated production increases in April, Saudi Arabia's export volume has not increased, and it is urgent to clarify whether OPEC or Saudi Arabia has actually increased production [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 64 cents to $60.89 per barrel, a decline of 1.04%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell 65 cents to $64.09 per barrel, a decline of 1.0%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.85% at 454 yuan per barrel [1] - Data released by the US Department of Commerce on the 27th showed that the preliminary value of the month - on - month change in US durable goods orders in April plunged 6.3%, with an expected value of - 7.8% and the previous value revised from 9.20% to 7.50%. Affected by the sharp decline in commercial aircraft orders, US durable goods orders in April declined more than expected, and core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and military hardware) fell 1.3%, the largest decline since last October [1] - Goldman Sachs: In the next two years, the oil production growth of shale oil projects in non - OPEC countries except Russia may accelerate to 1 million barrels per day. New natural gas projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar may increase OPEC's liquefied natural gas production to an average of 200,000 barrels per day per year in the next two years. Lower oil prices in 2025 - 2026 (i.e., a short - term surplus) may lead to an earlier and lower peak in US shale oil production [1] - Iran set the price of light crude oil sold to the Asian market in June at a premium of $1.80 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [1] - Trump warned Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in a phone call not to take any actions that could endanger the negotiations between the US and Iran on a new nuclear deal. Israel has been preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities quickly if the US - Iran nuclear negotiations fail in the next few weeks. Netanyahu may order an attack without Trump's approval, but Trump emphasized that "other options" are also being considered and hopes to try diplomatic solutions first [1] Strategy - Short - term neutral for oil prices, medium - term bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: OPEC significantly increases production, macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: Supply tightening of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]

所以，尽管我看到的所有头条新闻都非常悲观，尤其是彭博社的新闻极其看跌。所有人都在 谈论油价会跌到40或50美元。但说实话，如果OPEC能像现在这样从纸面角度增加供应而不 淹没实物市场，那么几个月后我们讨论的可能是80多美元的油价，而不是头条新闻中持续不 断的看跌叙事。 OPEC正试图遏制短期和长期资本支出。他们在关税不确定时这么做很聪明。面对实际紧张 的市场，他们吓退了部分资本支出。如果全球经济不迅速陷入严重衰退，我们仍处于供应不 足的市场。 当大家在谈论油价会跌到40或50美元时，Bison Interests首席投资官却坚定看多：认为今年油价可能触及 100美元。 他表示，许多增产看起来更像是"纸面桶数"，而非真实的实际供应，石油市场依然非常紧张。 此前汇丰预测继5月和6月各增产41.1万桶/日后，OPEC+很可能在7月再度宣布类似的大规模增产。对 此，媒体对油价的预测十分悲观。 另有媒体分析称，OPEC+正在启动一场最为激进的增产计划，矛头直指美国页岩油行业的生存底线 ——每桶60美元。 他在采访中的部分讲话如下： 嗯，所有这些事情中最奇怪的是，当你查看实际的卫星石油供应数据时，似乎目前OPEC的 石油 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are under pressure from multiple factors, including potential supply increases and limited geopolitical premiums, despite seasonal demand expectations for refined oil products [1] Industry Summary - Geopolitical premiums are providing some support, but potential supply increases are suppressing oil prices [1] - The third accelerated production increase by OPEC+ may impact the market [1] - Trade tensions are expected to lead to long-term demand suppression [1] Company Summary - U.S. oil production stands at 13.392 million barrels per day, with a month-on-month change of 0.04% and a year-on-year change of 2.23% [1] - U.S. net crude oil imports are at 2.582 million barrels per day, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.45% and a year-on-year increase of 33.57% [1] - U.S. refinery throughput is 16.49 million barrels per day, with a month-on-month change of 0.54% and a year-on-year change of 0.05% [1] - U.S. refinery utilization rate is at 90.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 1.0 percentage points [1] - China's major refinery utilization rate is 73.26%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 3.0 percentage points [1] - Shandong independent refineries have a utilization rate of 46.09%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.2 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 9.0 percentage points [1] Inventory Summary - U.S. total oil inventory (excluding SPR) is 1.223 billion barrels, compared to 1.218 billion barrels the previous week, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.19% [1] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventory is 444.3 million barrels, compared to 442 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.42% [1] - U.S. gasoline inventory is 226 million barrels, compared to 225 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.57% [1] - U.S. distillate inventory is 104 million barrels, unchanged from the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.80% [1] - European crude oil inventory is 56.794 million barrels, compared to 55.133 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.60% [1] - European refined oil inventory is 5.18 million barrels, compared to 5.265 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.07% [1] - Global floating storage is 88.198 million barrels, compared to 83.761 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 48.08% [1] Price Spread Summary - The crack spread in the U.S. Gulf Coast is $21.61 per barrel, down from $22.91 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 14.84% [1] - The Brent transatlantic crack spread is $26.26 per barrel, down from $26.56 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 21.53% [1] - The Middle East crack spread is $13.71 per barrel, up from $12.52 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 10.11% [1] - The Southeast Asia crack spread is $12.40 per barrel, up from $11.76 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 34.99% [1] Price Differential Summary - The WTI 1-6 month spread is $1.69 per barrel, down from $1.95 per barrel the previous week [1] - The Brent 1-6 month spread is $1.37 per barrel, up from $1.27 per barrel the previous week [1] - The Brent-WTI spread is $3.24 per barrel, down from $3.38 per barrel the previous week [1] - The EFS is $1.79 per barrel, up from $1.54 per barrel the previous week [1] - The SC-BRENT spread is -$1.07 per barrel, down from -$0.70 per barrel the previous week [1]