Economic Indicators - July 2025 domestic CPI is expected to be approximately 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rate remaining at 0.1%[3] - July PPI is projected to be around 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase to -3.3%[3] - Industrial added value is expected to slightly decline to 6.3% year-on-year in July[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods are anticipated to rise to 5.0% year-on-year in July[3] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to decrease slightly to 2.5% year-on-year cumulative[3] - Exports in dollar terms are expected to continue a slight increase to around 6.0% year-on-year[3] Financial Metrics - Trade surplus for July is projected at $1,002 million, down from $1,148 million[4] - Monthly credit increment is expected to be 2,900 million yuan, significantly lower than the previous 22,400 million yuan[4] - Total social financing monthly increment is forecasted at 16,000 million yuan, down from 41,993 million yuan[4] - M2 year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain stable at 8.3%[4]

Core Insights - In the first half of this year, Xianshan achieved a total retail sales of social consumer goods amounting to 13.957 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, the highest performance since 2020 [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - Xianshan's retail sales growth is the highest in the city, reflecting strong consumer demand and effective economic strategies [1] - The region aims to meet its economic development targets, including a 5% growth in total retail sales of social consumer goods [5] Group 2: Business Initiatives - The "old for new" consumption promotion campaign has been launched, focusing on appliances, digital products, and home improvement, which has significantly boosted sales [5] - Xianshan has innovated a new marketing model that integrates online and offline sales, exemplified by the opening of JD Wuxing's store in a physical mall [5] Group 3: Support for Key Enterprises - The local government is closely monitoring the operations of key enterprises like Sinopec and JD Wuxing, encouraging diverse promotional activities to benefit consumers [7] - There is an emphasis on compliance and regulation in the fuel distribution sector to ensure fair practices [7] Group 4: Commercial Development - Xianshan is supporting the development of large commercial complexes and unique product offerings to attract consumers [9] - Initiatives combining tourism and commerce are being promoted, alongside the development of modern agricultural and industrial integration projects [9] Group 5: Statistical Improvement - The local government is enhancing the quality of statistical data through training and support for newly registered enterprises [11] - Efforts are being made to ensure accurate reporting from existing businesses, particularly in the hospitality and catering sectors [11]

Group 1: Economic Growth - In Q2, China's actual GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with a target of around 5% for the full year, indicating manageable pressure to meet this goal[3] - The GDP deflator index fell to -1.2% in Q2, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of negative growth, suggesting ongoing price pressures[9] - The contribution of consumption to GDP growth in Q2 was 2.7 percentage points, making it the primary driver of economic expansion[10] Group 2: Industrial Performance - In June, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 5.5%[15] - The export delivery value of large-scale industrial enterprises rose by 4% in June, a 3.4 percentage point increase from the previous value[15] - Key sectors such as automotive manufacturing and electronic equipment manufacturing saw year-on-year growth rates of 11.4% and 11.0%, respectively[15] Group 3: Investment Trends - From January to June, fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points, with significant declines in manufacturing and infrastructure investment[21] - Manufacturing investment growth decreased to 7.5%, while infrastructure investment fell to 8.9%, with real estate investment declining by 11.5%[21] - Water management sector investment growth dropped significantly, down 11.2 percentage points to 15.4% year-on-year[25] Group 4: Consumer Spending - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[29] - Restaurant revenue in June recorded a year-on-year increase of only 0.9%, a drop of 5 percentage points from the previous value[29] - The retail sales of household appliances and communication equipment fell by 20.6% and 19.1%, respectively, indicating weakening consumer demand[29] Group 5: Risk Factors - Potential risks include changes in the external environment and the possibility that the "old-for-new" policy may not meet expectations[34]

Economic Overview - The GDP of Zibo reached 256.89 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% and a nominal increase of 18.74 billion yuan, representing a nominal growth rate of 7.87%, which is higher than the provincial average [1] - The primary industry added value was 8.24 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the secondary industry added value was 118.49 billion yuan, growing by 5.1%; and the tertiary industry added value was 130.16 billion yuan, growing by 6.2% [1] Agricultural Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery reached 14.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - The production of vegetables was 978,000 tons, growing by 3%, and the production of melons and fruits was 66,000 tons, growing by 3.3% [1] Industrial Sector - The added value of above-scale industries grew by 7.6% year-on-year, with 29 out of 38 major industries achieving positive growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 76.3% [2] - The top 10 industries by total added value saw "eight increases and two decreases," contributing a total of 6.2 percentage points to the city's growth [2] - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.1%, and the "four strong" industries saw an added value growth of 8.5% [2] Service Sector - From January to May, the above-scale service industry achieved operating income of 23.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the first quarter [2] - Among the ten categories of industries, eight saw growth, with transportation, warehousing, and postal services, information transmission, software and information technology services, and leasing and business services growing by 10.9%, 6.4%, and 6.2% respectively [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in the first half of the year decreased by 1.3%, while industrial investment increased by 29.7%, with industrial technological transformation investment growing by 20.8% [2] - Private investment grew by 21.0%, accounting for 65.3% of total investment, an increase of 12 percentage points year-on-year [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 83.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [3] - The retail sales of above-limit units reached 29.62 billion yuan, growing by 12.3%, with 15 out of 22 categories showing positive growth, and 9 categories achieving double-digit growth [3] - Notable growth in retail sales included grain and oil, food, tobacco and alcohol, sports and entertainment products, and communication equipment, with increases of 24.1%, 22.1%, 91.8%, and 50.2% respectively [3]

Core Insights - Shenzhen's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 494.868 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] Consumption Breakdown - Retail sales of goods increased by 3.6%, while catering revenue grew by 1.7% [1] - Basic living goods showed strong growth, with retail sales of daily necessities and grain and food categories increasing by 10.7% and 9.1% respectively [1] Policy Impact - The "old for new" consumption policy continued to show effectiveness, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, and communication equipment increasing by 55.7%, 32.9%, and 6.0% respectively [1] E-commerce Growth - Online retail sales continued to grow, with retail sales through the internet for above-limit units increasing by 19.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou's consumer market shows resilience in the first half of the year, driven by policy support and new business models, achieving a retail sales total of 561.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, which is 2.4 percentage points higher than the first quarter [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - Retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 7.1%, while communication equipment saw a rise of 15.0% [1] - Home appliances and audio-visual equipment experienced a significant growth of 27.6%, and furniture sales surged by 3.3 times due to strong demand in subsidized categories [1] - Sports and entertainment goods grew by 33.0%, and cultural and office supplies increased by 50.7%, with electronic publications and audio-visual products doubling in sales [1] Group 2: Online Shopping Trends - Online retail sales of physical goods in the wholesale and retail sector rose by 16.4%, while accommodation and catering businesses saw a 10.9% increase in revenue through public networks [1] Group 3: Quality Goods Sales - Sales of quality goods such as gold, silver, jewelry, and cosmetics remained stable, with retail sales increasing by 16.3% and 3.7% respectively [1]

Group 1: Current Characteristics of Social Retail Growth - Social group consumption is slowly recovering, but resident consumption remains dominant, with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to 2.5% for social group consumption in Q2 2025[5] - The gap in growth rates between resident and social group consumption has narrowed from 4.2 percentage points to 2.5 percentage points in the first half of the year[5] - Social retail growth is primarily driven by commodity consumption, with commodity retail growth rising from 4.6% to 5.1% in Q2 2025, while catering retail has declined[7] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Policy Impact - Consumer sentiment is recovering, supported by stable employment, with the urban unemployment rate decreasing from 5.2% to 5.0% in Q2 2025[11] - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a positive impact on consumer willingness across various categories[12] - The remaining central funds for the "old-for-new" policy in the second half of the year are estimated to generate 1.4 trillion yuan in sales, comparable to last year's 1.3 trillion yuan[18] Group 3: Outlook and Risks - The growth rate of social retail may slow in the second half of the year, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the resilience of resident consumption against stricter regulations on social group dining[17] - The central government's funding for the "old-for-new" policy is expected to be distributed evenly, with 1,620 billion yuan allocated in the first half and 1,380 billion yuan planned for the second half[17] - Risks include slow recovery of consumer confidence and potential delays in policy implementation[24]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, Jilin Province's GDP reached 682.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - The industrial sector showed steady progress, with the added value of above-scale industries growing by 7.8%, surpassing the national average by 1.4 percentage points [1] Agricultural Sector - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors saw an overall growth, with an added value of 37.48 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Specific growth rates for major agricultural products included 7.0% for crops, 10.2% for forestry, 3.6% for animal husbandry, and 9.6% for fisheries [1] Industrial Sector - The equipment manufacturing industry experienced a significant increase, with an added value growth of 19.5%, accounting for 10.9% of the province's above-scale industrial output [2] - Key industries such as information technology, pharmaceuticals, and electricity production achieved double-digit growth rates of 21.5%, 16.8%, and 10.3% respectively [1] Service Sector - The service sector's added value grew by 5.6%, contributing 63.8% to the province's GDP, with a contribution rate increase of 11.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sectors saw a growth of 7.2%, while scientific research and technical services grew by 13.0% [2] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.0%, with the second industry investment rising by 8.8% and the third industry by 1.9% [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 211.72 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with significant increases in furniture and home appliances retail sales [3]

Economic Overview - The GDP of Huizhou reached 291.006 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% at constant prices [2] - The primary industry added value was 13.262 billion yuan, growing by 4.1%; the secondary industry added value was 153.687 billion yuan, growing by 7.7%; and the tertiary industry added value was 124.057 billion yuan, growing by 2.3% [2] Agricultural Sector - Agricultural production showed stable growth, with the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery at 23.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [2] - Key agricultural products saw stable production, with vegetable and edible fungus output increasing by 4.0%, fruit output by 10.1%, and tea output by 7.3% [2] - Pork and poultry production declined, with pork output at 57,200 tons (down 5.5%) and poultry output at 41,800 tons (down 4.4%) [2] Industrial Sector - Industrial production experienced rapid growth, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 11.2% [3] - The electronics industry grew by 15.7%, while the petrochemical, energy, and new materials sectors grew by 5.4% [3] - Advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing added value increased by 11.2% and 15.3%, respectively, accounting for 61.8% and 42.5% of the total industrial added value [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 17.9% in the first half of the year, with manufacturing down 9.3% and real estate development down 26.9% [3] - Investment in cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors surged by 87.8%, while information transmission and software services grew by 11% [3] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 103.865 billion yuan, growing by 5.5% [4] - Urban retail sales increased by 5.7%, while rural retail sales grew by 4.7% [4] - Online retail sales surged by 49.0%, indicating strong potential in e-commerce [4] Foreign Trade - The total import and export volume reached 197.988 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [4] - Exports totaled 111.109 billion yuan (up 6.8%), while imports reached 86.879 billion yuan (up 6.9%) [4] Fiscal and Financial Sector - The general public budget revenue was 25.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [5] - The balance of financial institutions' deposits was 981.079 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% [5] - The consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.7%, indicating stable consumer prices [5] Income Trends - Per capita disposable income reached 26,731 yuan, growing by 4.8% [5] - Urban residents' per capita disposable income was 30,042 yuan (up 4.4%), while rural residents' was 17,503 yuan (up 6.2%) [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the content [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Tuesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were slightly higher, but they declined in the morning and accelerated the decline in the afternoon, closing at a low level. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts (TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509) fell by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [1] - The short - term interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Tuesday was lower than the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.36% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (1.49% the previous day) [1] - The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds on Tuesday were higher than the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.26 BP, 1.38 BP, 1.33 BP, and 2.20 BP respectively [1] - In June, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment was lower than expected and lower than that in May. The year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected. However, export growth and industrial added value exceeded expectations [1] - Recently, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in the second half of the year faces challenges, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand [1] - The progress of the U.S. tariff negotiation postponed to August 1 is an important factor affecting the global financial market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on July 18 that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies will be introduced, which short - term increased market risk preference [1] - The stock index may adjust at any time after a short - term rapid increase, and the treasury bond futures main contract prices may rebound after a continuous significant decline. Short - term long - term treasury bond futures contracts may fluctuate widely, and short - term contracts may remain stable [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were slightly higher, with a decline in the morning and an accelerated decline in the afternoon. The 30 - year (TL2509), 10 - year (T2509), 5 - year (TF2509), and 2 - year (TS2509) treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [1] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing [1] - Capital market: The short - term interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Tuesday was lower than the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.36% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (1.49% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds on Tuesday were higher than the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.26 BP, 1.38 BP, 1.33 BP, and 2.20 BP respectively [1] Market Logic - In June, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment was lower than expected and lower than that in May. The year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected. However, export growth and industrial added value exceeded expectations [1] - Recently, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in the second half of the year faces challenges, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand [1] - The progress of the U.S. tariff negotiation postponed to August 1 is an important factor affecting the global financial market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on July 18 that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies will be introduced, which short - term increased market risk preference [1] - The stock index may adjust at any time after a short - term rapid increase, and the treasury bond futures main contract prices may rebound after a continuous significant decline. Short - term long - term treasury bond futures contracts may fluctuate widely, and short - term contracts may remain stable [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]