自4月以来，特朗普多次对中国输美商品进行加征关税，如今关税已加到245%，无疑是宣布终止与中国进行贸易。 但特朗普加征关税的行为，正如人民网近日的一组漫画阐述的观点一样，等于是搬起石头砸自己的脚。 库克称，受美国关税政策影响，预计苹果在第三财季（2025年3月30日至6月28日）将损失约9亿美元，这笔金额相当于65亿人民币。 这反映了苹果作为高度依赖中国供应链的美国企业，当前正面临的困境，更揭示了特朗普对华加征245%关税政策，也会对美国科技领军企业造成系统性的 冲击。 受关税政策，中国有很多企业受到了一定影响，但同时美国科技公司也受到了同等的影响，苹果便是其中之一。 苹果CEO库克在2025财年第二财季财报电话会议上的表态如同一记警钟，震撼了整个科技产业界。 苹果之所以会出现约65亿的巨额损失，主要是因为关税政策会导致美国市场的iPhone成本翻倍，受此影响下，苹果似乎也只有两条路可以走。 第一种是将关税成本全额转嫁给消费者，届时美国市场的iPhone可能面临翻倍涨幅，如此一来美国消费者购买iPhone的频次就会大幅降低。 另一种是苹果通过在全球市场涨价的方式，弥补美国关税造成的损失，但在其它国家和地区涨价 ...

保罗·沃尔克（资料图） 据每日经济新闻报道，隔夜美股三大指数延续反弹，纳指涨2.5%，标普500涨1.67%，道指涨1.07%。大型科技股全线走高，特斯拉涨5.37%，亚马逊、英伟 达分别涨超4%和3%，Meta、苹果涨幅均超2%。 市场情绪受特朗普缓和关税言论及撤回解雇鲍威尔表态提振，但盘中冲高回落反映政策疑虑仍存。IBM、德州仪器等财报后走势分化，市场等待苹果、亚 马逊等巨头业绩指引。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨2.93%，连续两日跑赢大盘。小鹏汽车涨7.34%，蔚来涨超4%。 美国劳工部公布的数据显示，上周初请失业金人数为22.2万人，略高于市场预期的22万人，显示就业市场依旧具备韧性。同时，美国3月耐用品订单环比增 长9.2%，创下近九个月来最大涨幅，但分析人士表示，部分增长可能源于企业提前应对贸易风险，未必代表终端需求回暖。商品市场方面，COMEX黄金 期货结算价上涨54.5美元，报每盎司3348.60美元，涨幅1.65%。国际原油价格温和走高，纽约WTI 6月合约收涨0.84%，报每桶62.79美元；伦敦布伦特6月合 约上涨0.65%，报每桶66.55美元。 美股交易（资料图） 特朗普关税令这场贸易冲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Plains City Leading Index (CCL) has shown a slight increase of 0.25% to 136.71 points, reflecting a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing trade tensions between China and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The CCL has risen for two consecutive weeks, totaling an increase of 0.26%, but the growth remains modest as the index has fluctuated around the 136-point level for five weeks [1] - Concerns over escalating trade conflicts have led to a cautious attitude among buyers, while sellers are optimistic about potential interest rate cuts, resulting in a stalemate in negotiations [1] - The market has seen a significant reduction in second-hand transactions due to the depletion of affordable listings, leading to price contention [1] Group 2: Price Index Performance - The CCL is currently 3.71 points or 2.71% above the second-quarter target of 133 points, remaining at an 8.5-year low [1] - The CCL has decreased by 0.68% in 2025, with specific declines noted in various categories: CCL Mass down 0.75%, CCL (small units) down 0.56%, and CCL (large units) down 1.21% [2] - The CCL Mass index stands at 137.09 points, having dropped 0.11% weekly and 0.84% over four weeks, while the CCL (small units) has stabilized after three weeks of decline [2]

欧盟贸易专员马罗什.谢夫乔维奇表示，欧盟可能考虑增加约565亿美元的美国商品进口，以缩小美国的 贸易逆差，降低美国加征关税的风险。谢夫乔维奇正在领导欧盟与美国特朗普政府的关税谈判。他说， 考虑到美国对欧盟的服务出口，美国与欧盟27国的贸易逆差为每年约565亿美元。他认为，可以通过增 加欧盟自美国的商品进口来消除这一差距，从而缓解贸易冲突。(智通财经) ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales for Q1 2025 were $1,730 million, essentially flat compared to Q1 2024, with organic sales down 1% and acquisitions contributing 1% [6][8] - Operating income increased by 2% to $455 million, with operating margins at 26.3%, up 60 basis points year-over-year [7][8] - EBITDA rose by 3% to $559 million, with EBITDA margins at 32.2% [7][8] - Free cash flow was $394 million, representing a conversion rate of 112% of net income, up 3% from the previous year [8][26] - Diluted earnings per share increased by 7% to $1.75, exceeding the guidance range [8][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Electronic Instruments Group (EIG)**: Sales were $1,140 million, down 1% year-over-year, with operating income slightly up to $354.1 million and operating margins at 31%, up 50 basis points [9] - **Electromechanical Group (EMG)**: Achieved record sales of $588.3 million, up 2% year-over-year, with operating income increasing by 7% to $128.7 million and operating margins at 21.9%, up 120 basis points [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Orders overall were up 8% in the quarter, with organic orders increasing by 3% [6][40] - The U.S. market showed positive growth, while international markets experienced modest declines, particularly in China, which was down about 10% [46][48] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest an additional $85 million in 2025 to support global and market expansion strategies, focusing on research, development, and engineering [11][28] - Strategic acquisitions remain the top priority for capital deployment, with a robust pipeline of candidates [15][72] - The company is committed to mitigating tariff impacts through various strategies, including localization of production and pricing initiatives [21][55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the uncertain economic environment, citing a strong start to the year and improving order patterns [16][22] - The company anticipates full-year sales to increase by low single digits compared to 2024, with diluted earnings per share expected to rise by 3% to 5% [21][22] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate for Q1 was 19%, consistent with the previous year, and capital expenditures for the year are expected to be approximately $155 million [24][25] - The company announced an 11% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.31 per share, marking the sixth consecutive year of significant annual increases [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on Paragon and Medical-related businesses - Management noted that Paragon has seen a notable inflection in orders, with overall orders in the medical segment up 25% in the quarter, indicating a recovery from previous destocking [36][38] Question: Order cadence and demand destruction - Overall orders were up 8%, with organic orders up 3%, indicating continued improvement without significant demand destruction [40][41] Question: Geographic performance and market conditions - Positive growth was observed in the U.S., while modest declines were noted in Europe and Asia, particularly a 10% decline in China [46][48] Question: Tariff impacts and mitigation strategies - The company estimates a $100 million annual tariff impact, with plans to offset this through various mitigation actions [52][55] Question: Margin trajectory for EMG and Paragon - Management expects upside in margins for Paragon in the second half of the year due to ongoing improvement plans and increased volume [67][68] Question: Capital allocation and M&A activity - The company remains active in its M&A pipeline, with a focus on strategic acquisitions despite market uncertainties [71][72]

欧元兑美元RSI指标读数为61.0019，处于中性偏强区域，但尚未达到超买水平(通常为70以上)，表明短 期内仍有上行空间。ATR指标显示当前波动率维持在相对较低的水平，进一步佐证了市场处于盘整阶段 的判断。从形态上看，价格近期在1.1270附近形成了一个可能的支撑区域，如果能够守住这一水平，汇 价可能会尝试向上突破1.1410阻力位。而下方支撑除了1.1270外，还有1.1020的强支撑位置，这与之前 的盘整高点相吻合。 欧元区经济在第一季度仅实现0.2%的微弱增长，复苏前景被搁置，风险偏向负面结果。 欧洲央行副行 长路易斯·德·金多斯表示，贸易相关的"异常不确定性"加剧了风险，出口商面临新障碍，商业投资可能 受到抑制，消费者也可能变得更加谨慎。 芬兰央行行长奥利·雷恩指出，欧洲央行此前列出的许多负面 风险已经显现，贸易冲突及其带来的巨大不确定性正在拖累经济增长。 尽管两人均未主张采取政策宽 松措施，但雷恩表示，如果通胀率预计将低于欧洲央行的目标，利率可能会下调。两人还提到，贸易冲 突可能会抑制价格并减缓通胀，通胀率已接近欧洲央行2%的目标。贸易壁垒已经降低了能源价格并推 高了欧元汇率，给价格带来下行压力。 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, with early gains followed by a decline, and continued to oscillate in the night session. The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to U.S. tariff policies, leading to persistent market concerns and a weakening dollar index, which briefly fell below 99 [1] - Supply and demand dynamics indicate limited impact from the Peru copper mine incident, with a tight supply situation persisting and lower smelting and processing fees. Domestic consumption is supported by seasonal demand, and inventory trends are declining, although medium-term demand expectations remain cautious due to recession fears affecting prices [1] - The price difference between COMEX and LME remains high, and while short-term tariff impacts are easing, medium-term uncertainties persist. With holidays approaching, market sentiment is cautious, and copper prices are expected to continue in a wide range of fluctuations [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices showed slight strength in the morning but retreated in the night session, resulting in narrow fluctuations. Market concerns over trade conflicts have diminished in the short term, but U.S.-China negotiations have not progressed smoothly, and tariff impacts continue [1] - The domestic policy environment has not provided unexpected increases, leading to market caution. The spot price of alumina remains stable, with expectations of production cuts, but overcapacity remains unchanged, and optimistic supply from ore persists, creating clear upward pressure [1] - Supply constraints for aluminum remain, with slow production growth. Short-term demand is supported by seasonal factors, and inventory is declining, but medium-term macroeconomic concerns persist. Overall, the overcapacity situation in alumina remains unchanged, and with costs potentially decreasing, upward price pressure continues, leading to cautious sentiment as holidays approach [1] Group 3: Nickel Market - The nickel market is experiencing range-bound fluctuations with high volatility risks. Supply-side factors include an extended rainy season in Indonesia, which supports nickel ore prices, while high nickel pig iron costs limit downward price potential. Intermediate product supply is ample, and refined nickel production capacity is expanding, resulting in high inventory levels [1] - On the demand side, the stainless steel peak season is coming to an end, putting pressure on terminal demand. Although there is a rebound in new energy demand, the weak market share of ternary products limits incremental demand for nickel [1] - Overall, the market faces a surplus situation, and cost pressures are rising due to Indonesian policy disturbances. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with supply-side factors being the primary short-term influence. The Indonesian PNBP policy will gradually manifest during the May Day period, leading to high volatility risks in nickel prices, and new orders are advised to be on hold for the time being [1]

智通财经APP获悉，据报道，不断升级的中美贸易冲突正开始对美国经济产生更广泛的影响，集装箱港 口运营商和航空货运公司报告称，来自中国的货物大幅减少。 物流公司注意到，自美国对中国进口商品征收145%的关税以来，运往美国的集装箱运输量急剧下降。 洛杉矶港是中国商品在美国的主要入境点，该港预测，从5月4日开始的一周，预计到港集装箱数量将比 去年同期下降33%。航空货运公司也发现订单量大幅下降。 集装箱跟踪平台Vizion的数据显示，截至4月中旬，从中国到美国的标准20英尺集装箱预订量同比下降 了45%。 航运巨头赫伯罗特报告称，其从中国出发的出境订单约有30%被取消。 订单放缓显然影响了港口活动。Sea-Intelligence 的分析师报告称，"空船"（即取消从中国出发的预定船 只）数量激增。据报道，从5月5日开始的四周内，亚洲-北美航线的集装箱预订量减少了约40万个，与 关税宣布前的计划相比下降了25%。 国际商会（ICC）主席John Denton表示，这种中断反映出企业正在推迟决策，等待华盛顿和北京是否会 就降低关税进行谈判的明确消息。在美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布对等关税之后，国际商会对60多个国家 的成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech by the Deputy General Manager of Xingzheng Global Fund, Xie Zhiyu, emphasizes a positive outlook on the market despite facing numerous challenges and risks ahead, indicating a matured approach to investment strategies [2][8]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Economic Challenges - The current economic environment is marked by significant volatility, with the company adopting a more mature mindset in response to external pressures, moving from constant worry to a more measured approach [2][3]. - The trade conflict today is notably different from that of 2018, with potential tariffs reaching as high as 125%, indicating a shift towards the highest tariff levels since 1900 [3][4]. - The U.S. economy is experiencing structural changes, including a declining manufacturing sector and increasing wealth disparity, which are contributing to a high level of national debt [6][7]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Strategies - The company believes that despite the challenges, there are potential long-term benefits, including a controlled increase in government debt and a stabilization in the real estate market, which could positively impact the economy [8][10]. - There is a growing emphasis on technology and innovation, with increased R&D investment as a percentage of GDP, which is expected to drive future growth [10][13]. - The equity market is evolving to provide more sustainable investment products, particularly in technology sectors, which are seen as having higher risk and return potential [11][12]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The company anticipates that the A-share and Hong Kong markets will become more internationalized, attracting larger capital inflows due to their appealing valuation levels [12][14]. - There is a strong belief in the importance of dividend-paying stocks, which are expected to provide stable returns and contribute to market revaluation [14]. - The company remains optimistic about sectors with ongoing breakthroughs, such as semiconductors, which are expected to play a significant role in global competition [14].

新加坡央行警告称，持续的全球贸易战可能对经济增长和通胀构成更大风险，首轮关税已预计影响到 60%的该国对美出口。新加坡金管局周一在宏观经济评估报告中指出，经济增长前景已转为"更加谨 慎"，美国关税上调可能压缩出口商利润率、削减生产并抑制国内收入。该机构强调，贸易政策走向仍 存在"显著不确定性"。"贸易冲突若长期持续，可能对经济增长构成进一步下行风险，进而影响通 胀，"报告称。"相反，贸易紧张局势可能随时间推移缓和，这可能提振信心和出口活动。"（彭博） ...