事件概况 国务院新闻办公室于 2025 年 5月 7 日上午 9 时举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国 证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 事件点评 一是资金面迎利好： 1）发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜介绍，降准 0.5 个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿元，并降低 政策利率 0.1 个百分点； 2）证监会主席吴清在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，全力支持中央汇金公司发挥类平准基金作用； 3）优化两项支持资本市场货币政策工具，将 5000 亿元证券基金保险公司互换便利和 3000 亿元股票增持回购再 贷款两个工具的额度合并，总额度变为 8000 亿元。宽松的货币政策以及支持资本市场的政策工具为资本市场创 造了良好的流动性环境，体现了监管呵护资本市场的决心与信心，有利于市场情绪的提升。 二是改革端有深化： 国新办发布会上，吴清主席表示大力推动中长期资金入市，抓紧印发和落实《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方 案》、抓紧发布新修订的《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》。预计未来基金公司将从"重规模"向"重回报" 转变，与投资者利益绑定，更利于 ...

Group 1 - The Securities ETF Southern (512900) experienced a significant increase, rising over 3% and aiming for a third consecutive gain, with a trading volume of 26.8858 million yuan as of 10:01 AM on May 7 [1] - The latest scale of the Securities ETF Southern reached 6.569 billion yuan, marking a one-month high [2] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, along with a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates [2] Group 2 - In the first quarter, 50 listed securities firms reported a year-on-year net profit increase of 80%, with an adjusted net profit growth of 51% [3] - The expectation of continued capital market reforms and policies encouraging quality securities firms to strengthen through mergers and acquisitions suggests significant upward potential for the return on equity (ROE) and valuations in the securities industry [3] - The Securities ETF Southern closely tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, indicating its alignment with the performance of the securities sector [3]

一、证监会巡视收获大鱼！证监会副主席王建军涉嫌严重违纪违法，正接受审查调查。现在突然落马，短期看对A股没啥大影响，但从长远来看，绝对是好 事。这说明"村里"（证监会）是真重视股市，把那些"蛀牙"拔掉，行情才能更好嘛。 这一系列措施，其实都是围绕一个核心——保护投资者。证监会这是在给咱们打造一个健康、透明、公平的资本市场。这不仅能提升投资者的信心，更是为 中国资本市场的长期健康发展打下坚实基础。不过，咱们也不能太早高兴，这些改革措施能不能真正落地，还得看后续执行情况。 二、银行跌倒，小票吃饱。如果说有一类股下跌，股民非但没有伤心，甚至还有点那啥？没错儿，就是银行股。 指数虽然跌了，但小票这两天却发了笔"过节财"。个股有3400多家上涨，99家涨停，中位数涨了0.77%！市场赚钱效应还是挺不错的。 两市成交了1.16万亿，比昨天多了近1500亿。节前最后一个交易日，按理说资金应该撤了，结果反而更踊跃了。为啥？因为有大资金开始试盘了！ 撰稿、收集数据不易，觉得有帮助的朋友可以点击关注、分享♝、点赞，支持一下，谢谢！也可点击收藏，方便日后翻查。 5304家公司披露2024年年报，其中2546家公司实现归属于上市公司股 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·证券ⅡII 国泰海通（601211） 2025 年一季报点评：并表海通，各主营业务 增速可观，带动扣非净利润同比增长 61% 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 36,141 | 43,397 | 67,415 | 76,533 | 83,556 | | 同比（%） | 1.89% | 20.08% | 55.35% | 13.52% | 9.18% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,374 | 13,024 | 26,866 | 28,047 | 32,633 | | 同比（%） | -18.54% | 38.94% | 106.28% | 4.39% | 16.35% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.05 | 1.39 | 1.52 | 1.59 | 1.85 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 13.36 | 10.12 | 9.23 | 8.84 ...

国泰海通（601211） 2025 年一季报点评：并表海通，各主营业务 增速可观，带动扣非净利润同比增长 61% 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 36,141 | 43,397 | 67,415 | 76,533 | 83,556 | | 同比（%） | 1.89% | 20.08% | 55.35% | 13.52% | 9.18% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,374 | 13,024 | 26,866 | 28,047 | 32,633 | | 同比（%） | -18.54% | 38.94% | 106.28% | 4.39% | 16.35% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.05 | 1.39 | 1.52 | 1.59 | 1.85 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 13.36 | 10.12 | 9.23 | 8.84 | 7.60 | 证券研究报告·公司点评 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights stable growth across various business segments, with notable performance in investment net income [1] - The company achieved a significant increase in total revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 17.76 billion and net profit at 6.55 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 29.1% and 32.0% respectively [8] - The brokerage business saw a substantial increase in revenue due to a surge in trading volume, while investment income also experienced significant growth [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 60.068 billion, with a projected increase to 70.842 billion by 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.06% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 19.721 billion in 2023A to 25.669 billion in 2025E, indicating an 18.27% increase [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.73 for 2025E, with a P/E ratio of 15.58 [1] Business Segment Performance - Brokerage revenue increased by 36.2% year-on-year, contributing 20.5% to total revenue [8] - Investment banking revenue grew by 12.2%, with a significant increase in underwriting scale [8] - Asset management revenue rose by 8.7%, maintaining the company's leading position in the market [8] - Investment income saw a remarkable increase of 62.3% year-on-year, with adjusted net investment income up by 35.6% [8]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.31 billion yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year, with an EPS of 0.25 yuan and ROE of 1.9%, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The company's brokerage business revenue significantly increased to 1.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 49.0%, accounting for 42.5% of total operating revenue [1] Group 2: Market Activity - The average daily trading volume in the stock market reached 1.7031 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.3% [1] - The company's margin financing and securities lending balance was 100.1 billion yuan, up 24% from the beginning of the year, with a market share of 5.2% [1] Group 3: Investment Banking Performance - Investment banking revenue for Q1 2025 was 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.0% [2] - The company's equity underwriting scale was 3.51 billion yuan, down 57.5% year-on-year, ranking 8th in the industry [2] - The bond underwriting scale was 75.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, ranking 13th in the industry [2] Group 4: Asset Management and Investment Income - Asset management revenue rose to 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.9% [3] - The company's asset management scale was 282.2 billion yuan at the end of 2024, down 4.3% year-on-year [3] - Investment income for Q1 2025 was 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 12.3 billion, 13.1 billion, and 14.0 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 18%, 7%, and 7% respectively [3] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing capital market reforms and a gradual economic recovery, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a revenue of 4.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.31 billion yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year [7] - The brokerage business revenue surged by 49.0% year-on-year, accounting for 42.5% of total revenue, driven by increased market trading activity [7] - Investment banking revenue has declined, with a 112.0% year-on-year increase in total investment banking revenue, but a significant drop in equity underwriting [7] - Asset management revenue increased by 42.9% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in this segment [7] - The company's self-operated investment income decreased by 26.2% year-on-year due to a high base in the previous year [7] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 12.3 billion, 13.1 billion, and 14.0 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 7%, and 7% [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 19.82 billion, 20.89 billion, 23.38 billion, 24.51 billion, and 25.77 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 3.13%, 5.40%, 11.92%, 4.82%, and 5.15% [1] - The projected diluted EPS for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 0.94, 1.13, 1.41, 1.50, and 1.61 yuan per share [1] - The P/E ratios for the same years are projected to be 19.33, 16.08, 12.88, 12.08, and 11.30 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a revenue of 4.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.31 billion yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year [7] - The brokerage business revenue significantly increased by 49.0% year-on-year, accounting for 42.5% of total revenue, driven by a rise in market trading activity [7] - Investment banking revenue has declined, with a 112.0% year-on-year increase in total investment banking revenue, but a 57.5% decrease in equity underwriting scale [7] - Asset management revenue rose by 42.9% year-on-year, indicating a strong performance in this segment [7] - The company's self-operated investment income decreased by 26.2% year-on-year due to a high base in the previous year [7] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 12.3 billion, 13.1 billion, and 14.0 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 18%, 7%, and 7% respectively [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 19.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.13% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 8.76 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.57% year-on-year increase [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected at 0.94 yuan for 2023, with a P/E ratio of 19.33 [1] Business Segments - Brokerage business revenue is projected to reach 6.18 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 7.23 billion yuan in 2025 [17] - Investment banking revenue is expected to be 0.86 billion yuan in 2024, slightly decreasing in subsequent years [17] - Asset management revenue is forecasted to grow from 0.72 billion yuan in 2024 to 0.78 billion yuan in 2025 [17] Market Position - The company holds a market share of 5.2% in margin financing, with a total margin balance of 100.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 24% increase since the beginning of the year [7] - The company ranks 8th in the industry for equity underwriting and 13th for bond underwriting, indicating a competitive position despite recent declines [7]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 4 月 28 日 中长期资金入市深度报告 A 股的机构化转型与长期价值重塑 中长期资金入市提速，A 股市场结构优化加速演进。 相关研究报告 《市场更新：超预期经济数据的市场指引》 20250417 《一季度进出口数据点评》20250415 《3 月金融数据点评》20250414 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 中长期资金入市政策落地，A 股迎来结构性优化机遇。近年来，政策层 面不断强化中长期资金入市的力度，从 2019 年提出目标，到 2024 年新"国 九条"确立"长钱长投"体系，再到 2025 年中央金融办、中国证监会、财政 部、人力资源社会保障部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合印发的《关 于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施 ...