文|新浪财经 罗宁 近日，著名投资人段永平在投资交流平台雪球上，以"大道无形我有型"的ID发文表示："由于某种原 因，我会有相当长的一段时间不再上雪球了，也许有一天我还会回来。" 尽管未明确"离开"二字，但字里行间透露出暂别之意。消息公布后迅速引发热议，网友留言"感恩遇 见"。 雪球创始人方三文（ID：不明真相的群众）留言称"也许三年九个月以后？"尽管段永平随后回复辟谣， 称并非因身体原因而暂时离开雪球，但其日常与网友交流投资心得的核心平台均在雪球，他选择在这一 时间点离开颇为微妙。 实际上，就在宣布离开的两天前，段永平在雪球陆续贴了5张交割单，公布自己的"实战记录"，分别卖 出英伟达、苹果、台积电、谷歌以及腾讯的认沽期权。 此话正好对应了两天后方三文的回复。截至发稿，段永平在雪球平台再无新动态，但今年以来段永平的 一些动作，或许也预示了他对社交平台的疲倦，新浪财经《长镜头》栏目在此梳理出一些重要事件，或 许能够揭示出段永平离开背后的更多故事。 "折腾的大年" 4月8日，段永平在美股暴跌后高调抄底，买入（或卖出看跌期权）苹果、英伟达、谷歌、台积电、腾 讯。通过计算得知，此次段永平的操作总共涉及资金约3.945 ...

以下文章来源于聪明投资者 ，作者聪明投资者 聪明投资者 . 聚焦优秀投资人和企业家，甄选高质量的内容，追求可累进的成长。更多内容可下载"聪明投资 者"APP，官网：www.cmtzz.cn 来源 | 聪明投资者 预计阅读时间：21分钟 " 运 气 ， 就 是 当 机 会 来 了 ， 你 刚 好 已 经 准 备 好 了 。 " 这是橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）在最近的《Money Ma》访谈中，引人 深思的一句话。 他并不回避运气在投资中的作用，甚至直言自己是"世界上最幸运的人"。但他强调，运气并不是毫 无缘由的，而是建立在持续准备的基础上。 霍华德回顾了自己的职业生涯：从1969年进入花旗银行，到意外被调入债券部门，再到最终创立橡 树资本，都是非常幸运的过程。 他认为，市场中的机会并不会主动降临到你身上，而是你要让自己站在正确的位置，做好准备，等 机会到来时能够抓住它。 "你不能预测未来，但你可以为不同的可能性做好准备。" 这就是他对投资的理解：市场是不可预测，而投资者可以通过纪律、研究和思维框架，为各种情境 构建一个稳健的投资策略。 霍华德多次强调，投资并不是寻找绝对确定性的 ...

Core Insights - Zhang Jiansheng, a fund manager at Baodao Fund, has shifted his investment strategy towards Hong Kong stocks, increasing their representation in his portfolio from 3 to over 50% by Q2 2024, indicating a positive outlook on the market [1] - His investment philosophy emphasizes a bottom-up stock selection framework, focusing on competitive barriers, industry dynamics, and valuation metrics [1][2] - Zhang's approach to valuation is unique, prioritizing the implied return over a five-year horizon rather than traditional price-to-earnings ratios, which he believes provides a more rational assessment of a company's worth [2] Stock Selection Criteria - Competitive barriers are deemed essential; companies lacking these barriers, regardless of growth rates, are not considered for heavy investment [1][3] - Industry supply-demand dynamics are critical for risk management, with Zhang highlighting the domestic innovative drug sector as an example of improving investment value due to favorable conditions [2] - Cash flow value is prioritized over market sentiment, as demonstrated by a past missed opportunity in telecom operators due to an overemphasis on short-term negatives [2][3] Focus Areas and Market Trends - Zhang identifies three key sectors for investment: 3D stacking technology, cloud computing, and edge AI, anticipating significant growth driven by technological advancements [3] - The changing pricing logic in the Hong Kong stock market, influenced by increasing southbound capital, presents new opportunities for bottom-up stock selection [3] - Despite the rise in the Hang Seng Tech Index, many quality assets in the Hong Kong market remain undervalued, suggesting potential for future appreciation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of independent research and long-term investment strategies in fund selection, highlighting four noteworthy equity funds that may provide valuable insights for investors [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - E Fund Contrarian Investment Mixed Fund primarily invests in A-shares and has a flexible allocation to Hong Kong stocks, utilizing a GARP strategy to identify stocks with stable growth potential [2]. - Zhongtai Kaiyang Value Select Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund employs a bottom-up stock selection approach, focusing on quality growth while considering valuation [5]. - Invesco Great Wall Growth Star Equity Fund, managed with a growth investment strategy, combines industry research with bottom-up stock analysis to identify growth stock opportunities [8]. - Hongde Honghua Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund emphasizes fundamental research, focusing on long-term growth and quality of stocks while controlling portfolio volatility [13]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - E Fund's manager, Yang Jiawen, has 13 years of experience and a strong track record in A-share investment, employing a contrarian approach to identify undervalued stocks [3]. - Zhongtai Kaiyang's manager, Tian Yu, has 13 years of experience and emphasizes deep fundamental research, maintaining a concentrated portfolio of around 20 stocks [6]. - Invesco Great Wall's manager, Zhou Hanying, has extensive overseas investment experience and has shown potential in A-share investments, focusing on stable and high-growth companies [9]. - Hongde Honghua's manager, Qin Yi, has 7 years of experience and emphasizes a growth-oriented strategy, analyzing companies' competitive advantages and market conditions [15]. Group 3: Fund Performance and Characteristics - E Fund Contrarian Investment Mixed Fund has a scale of 958 million and is classified as low risk, showing high cumulative returns since its management began [4][5]. - Zhongtai Kaiyang Value Select Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund has a scale of 1.751 billion and is classified as high risk, with moderate returns since its inception [7]. - Invesco Great Wall Growth Star Equity Fund has a scale of 2.61 billion, classified as low risk, and has demonstrated high returns since management began [12]. - Hongde Honghua Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund has a scale of 427 million, classified as medium risk, and has shown high returns since its management began [16].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of being prepared to seize opportunities when they arise, as luck plays a significant role in investment success [1][81]. - Howard Marks reflects on his career journey, highlighting that his unexpected transitions, such as moving from the stock department to the bond department, were pivotal moments that shaped his investment approach [11][84]. - The article discusses the unpredictability of markets and the necessity for investors to develop robust strategies that account for various potential scenarios rather than seeking absolute certainty [2][46]. Group 2 - Marks shares insights from Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, stressing the importance of focusing on a few critical factors rather than trying to know everything [3][96]. - The discussion includes the challenges of determining when to sell investments, with Marks noting that the real difficulty lies in maintaining conviction during periods of underperformance [15][22]. - The article highlights the cyclical nature of markets, driven by human emotions such as greed and fear, which create opportunities for astute investors [30][32]. Group 3 - Marks emphasizes the need for "intellectual humility," advocating for an acknowledgment of uncertainty in investment decisions and the importance of being open to differing viewpoints [34][42]. - The article critiques the notion of a "silver bullet" investment strategy, particularly in the context of private equity, suggesting that past successes may not be replicable in changing market conditions [49][60]. - Marks identifies three key factors for successful investing: the ability to interpret information at a higher level, understanding qualitative factors, and having foresight about future developments [63][71]. Group 4 - The article discusses the significant fiscal challenges facing the U.S., particularly the persistent budget deficits and the implications for future economic stability [98][104]. - Marks expresses skepticism about the sustainability of America's exceptionalism in the global economic landscape, suggesting that while the U.S. has advantages, the likelihood of maintaining its leading position is uncertain [76][80]. - The discussion concludes with advice for young professionals entering the finance industry, emphasizing the importance of pursuing a fulfilling career rather than merely chasing financial gain [114].

来 源 | 聪 明 投 资 者 作 者 ｜IN 咖 预 计 阅 读 时 间：1 6 分 钟 许久没有露面的传奇投资人安东尼·波顿（Anthony Bolton）最近参加了一个对谈节目。 这位被贴 上"英国彼得·林奇"、"逆向大师"种种标签的投资大师，对当下有明确的判断："我今天的看法是， 我们处于中国新一轮牛市的初期阶段。"，"真正关键的是：市场已经对前景作出什么样的定价了， 不是前景本身。" 今年75岁的安东尼·波顿， 1979年加入富达（Fidelity），并迅速成为其传奇的投资经理之一。 他 的投资哲学强调耐心与坚持，尤其在市场情绪高涨时，波顿能够保持冷静，识别出被过度追捧或忽 视的资产。 他经历过多次重大市场危机如1987年股灾、2000年互联网泡沫破裂、2001年"9·11"事件……但 仍保持了稳定的高回报，展现了其逆向投资策略的韧性。波顿的成功秘诀在于他对企业基本面的深 入研究和对市场信息的独特理解，他甚至不讳言，自己相对基本面"更痴迷于解读投票器——通过 股东变动、内部交易等捕捉市场情绪"。 这次对话中，他讲到很多实操上的内容。 有意思的是，他讲到"特别喜欢非对称回报的投资机会"， 这点跟霍华德 ...

青侨阳光医药投资 - 月度思考 如果用典型的市场风格分类标准去衡量，青侨基金应该属于偏左侧逆向的长线成长风格。在多数情况下，青侨 基金首先寻求的是在左侧去逆向布局尚未得到市场广泛关注的非主流标的，或者已经得到关注但投资人依然半 信半疑的非共识标的。 青侨基金最核心的投资策略，就是寻找和投资"现在市场不认但未来不得不认"的生物医药资产。 辨别"现在市 场不认"很容易，难的是如何辨别"未来不得不认"。 下面是我们对这个问题的一些思考。 1 未来不得不认的背后， 要么是内生价值的爆发成长， 要么是市场定价的严重低估。 资本定价模型是当代资产管理的核心底座，它的核心思想是预期收益与潜在风险之间的正相关关系，预期收益 越高的资产往往潜在风险也越大，用公式表示就是"某资产的预期收益率=无风险利率+该资产承担额外风险的 收益率补偿"。这很合直觉，对大类资产的历史回报也有很好的解释力，比如过去10多年，国内股票基金的潜 在风险最大，但长期年化收益率也最高 （10%-15%)；债券基金的潜在风险明显更低，但年化收益率也会更低 (比如5%-6%)；货币基金的潜在风险是最低的，对应的年化收益率也最低(比如2%-3%)。 但这只对长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and misconceptions surrounding value investing, highlighting how it has become a form of self-deception for many investors. It emphasizes the gap between ideal long-term investment strategies and the harsh realities faced by investors in the market. Misconceptions about Value Investing - The concept of "pseudo long-termism" suggests that value investing is not about holding onto stocks indefinitely but requires dynamic decision-making based on market valuations [5] - Investors often lack the courage to counter market trends, leading to hesitation in making reverse investment decisions when faced with undervalued stocks [6] - The psychological trap of sunk costs causes investors to hold onto losing stocks out of fear of admitting failure, rather than making rational decisions [6] - The illusion of risk diversification can mislead investors into believing that holding numerous stocks reduces risk, while in reality, they may be concentrated in similar sectors [7] - Many investors chase short-term gains, neglecting the time required for value to materialize, which can lead to poor investment choices [8] Investment Strategies and Philosophies - The article introduces investment philosophies such as "waiting for the wind" rather than "chasing the wind," advocating for patience and strategic buying during undervaluation periods [10] - Emphasizes the importance of deep understanding and trust in investment targets to overcome the common issue of not being able to hold onto stocks [11] - Discusses a balanced approach between maintaining core positions in deep value stocks and being flexible to capitalize on short-term opportunities [12] - Establishing clear valuation standards is crucial for controlling drawdowns and maintaining investment discipline [13] Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The volatility in the A-share market is seen as a source of arbitrage opportunities, as price fluctuations around value can benefit value investors [20] - The core of company analysis should focus on understanding the essence of competitive advantages, ensuring that analysis does not deviate from fundamental factors [21]

聪明投资者将这篇珍贵的对话精译出来分享给大家。Enjoy it～ 编者按 许久没有露面的传奇投资人安东尼·波顿（Anthony Bolton）最近被挪威银行投资管理公司CEO尼古拉·坦 根（Nicolai Tangen）请进了最新一期的播客节目。 这位被贴上"欧洲股神"、"英国彼得·林奇"、"逆向大师"种种标签的投资大师，真是一点都不含糊，很敢 下判断："放眼全球，几乎所有市场都处于历史高位，唯独中国在低谷徘徊——这本身就是最典型的逆向 机会。""（你会做什么？）很简单：减持美国资产。""我今天的看法是，我们处于中国新一轮牛市的初期 阶段。""真正关键的是：市场已经对前景作出什么样的定价，不是前景本身。" 今年75岁的安东尼·波顿，1979年加入富达（Fidelity），并迅速成为其传奇的投资经理之一。曾管理 Special Situations Fund 约28年，获得年化超20%的回报率。他的投资哲学强调耐心与坚持，尤其在市场情 绪高涨时，波顿能够保持冷静，识别出被过度追捧或忽视的资产。波顿经历了多次重大市场危机如1987 年股灾、2000年互联网泡沫破裂、2001年"9·11"事件……但仍保持了稳定的高 ...