Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation in September is stable, and the driving force will continue to be positive for at least the next two weeks. The decline in October depends on shipping companies' suspension of voyages. In terms of valuation, the price in October is close to the annual low (1250 - 1300), with limited downside. The December contract will decline in the short - term following the driving force, but considering the peak season and long - term agreement negotiation season, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying at low prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts such as FC2510, EC2512, EC2602, etc., prices showed different degrees of change. For example, FC2510 had a - 1.32% change, and EC2512 had a - 1.86% change. The price differences between different contracts also changed, like the EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 378.2, with a 14.6 day - on - day change and a - 92.2 week - on - week change [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied. For instance, the trading volume of EC2510 was 51946, and the open interest was 25510 [1]. Spot Index Information - **Index Changes**: Indicators such as SCHIS, SCFI, CCFI, and NCFI all showed declines. SCHIS decreased by - 100.00% compared to the previous period, and SCFI dropped by - 11.21% [1]. Shipping Capacity Information - **Original Shipping Capacity**: In September and October, the weekly average shipping capacity was 29.6 and 30.9 million TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended voyages, it was 29.6 and 28.1 million TEU respectively. After the September 4th update, due to the suspension of voyages during the National Day holiday, the shipping capacity in week 40 and 41 decreased to 31 and 23.7 million TEU respectively, and the weekly average in October was 28.9 million TEU. After considering all TBN as suspended voyages, the shipping capacity in September and October was 29.6 and 26 million TEU respectively [1][2]. Price Quotation Information - **Recent Quotations**: Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for mid - September (week 37 - 38). In week 36, the shipping company's quotation was between 2120 - 2420, with an average of 2250 US dollars (1550 points). In week 37, the average quotation was 2100 US dollars (1450 points), and in week 38, it was 2000 US dollars (1370 points). On Wednesday, YML quoted 1800 US dollars for the second half of September and the first half of October [3]. News Information - **Military News**: On September 2, the Israeli military stated that its military operations in Gaza City had advanced to new areas. On September 4, Hamas reiterated its willingness to reach a comprehensive agreement in Gaza and release all Israeli hostages [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the market is in the process of bottom - building with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3]. - After the bullish sentiment is exhausted, combined with the continuous decline of spot freight rates and the repeated Middle - East situation, the market stops rising and starts to fall. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Data - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced a price of 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. - On September 3, the main contract 2510 closed at 1323.0, with a decline of 3.04%, a trading volume of 25,500 lots, and an open interest of 51,900 lots, a decrease of 2211 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected 50.7 [2]. - The eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7); the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - preferring investors are advised to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The US - China tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [3]. - The Israeli - Palestinian conflict situation: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Israeli army is preparing to attack Gaza City, and the Israeli army is conducting large - scale reserve recruitment [5]. - The daily limit and circuit breaker for contracts from 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - MSC announced the National Day suspension plan, and the market rebounded significantly yesterday, in line with the daily report's expectation. Due to large recent fluctuations, it's not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2] - Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, so it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Freight Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2] - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, improving for three consecutive months and reaching the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7; the August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] - The preliminary value of the US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7); the preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3] Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension continued, with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly declined [4] - On September 2, the main contract 2510 closed at 1340.7, up 3.62%, with a trading volume of 77,900 lots and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 1886 lots from the previous day [4] Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong. Risk - takers are advised to try going long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, don't hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try lightly [5] - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] Other Information - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5] - Geopolitical conflicts include the Houthi rebels' attack on an Israeli oil tanker in the Red Sea and explosions in multiple places in Syria [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.78% in the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of 109.1 billion yuan, despite a slight decline of 3.39% in Q2 [8] - The growth in container shipping volume and profitability from port operations supported the company's performance [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.56 yuan per share for the mid-term, reflecting a dividend payout ratio of approximately 50%, which is a 7.69% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [8] - The company is expected to maintain stable profits in the future due to a solid industry structure and its dividend attributes [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023: 175.448 billion yuan, 2024: 233.859 billion yuan, 2025E: 192.372 billion yuan, 2026E: 180.483 billion yuan, 2027E: 191.742 billion yuan [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: 2023: 23.86 billion yuan, 2024: 49.1 billion yuan, 2025E: 25.525 billion yuan, 2026E: 19.036 billion yuan, 2027E: 20.09 billion yuan [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be: 2023: 1.54 yuan, 2024: 3.17 yuan, 2025E: 1.65 yuan, 2026E: 1.23 yuan, 2027E: 1.30 yuan [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be: 2023: 12.17%, 2024: 20.92%, 2025E: 10.32%, 2026E: 7.41%, 2027E: 7.52% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first half of September (week36 - 37). The average quote for week36 is $2,270 (equivalent to 1,600 points on the futures market), and for week37 it's $2,125 (1,450 points). There are price adjustments among different shipping alliances. The overall situation in September has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the downward trend will continue for at least two more weeks. The decline in October depends on shipping companies' suspension of voyages. The price of the October contract is close to the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downside. The December contract may decline in the short - term but presents opportunities to go long at low prices as it is in the peak season and long - term contract negotiation period [2][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1,291.4, up 2.41%, with a benchmark of 482.2, a trading volume of 29,155, an open interest of 52,271, and a decrease of 989 in open interest [2][16] - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1,640.9, up 5.00%, with a benchmark of 132.7, a trading volume of 11,198, an open interest of 16,495, and a decrease of 828 in open interest [2][16] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1,461.3, up 3.78%, with a benchmark of 312.3, a trading volume of 1,540, an open interest of 4,846, and a change of 1 - 7 in open interest [2][16] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1,241.8, up 3.11%, with a benchmark of 531.8, a trading volume of 1,721, an open interest of 7,069, and a decrease of 67 in open interest [2][16] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1,428.5, up 3.81%, with a benchmark of 345.1, a trading volume of 174, an open interest of 890, and an increase of 23 in open interest [2][16] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 349.5, with a daily decrease of 47.8 and a weekly decrease of 24.5 [2][16] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 179.6, with a daily increase of 25.0 and a weekly increase of 5.0 [2][16] Spot Indexes - SCFI (European route): As of September 1, 2025, it was 1,773.6, down 10.88% from the previous period and 8.71% from the same period last year [2][16] - CCFI: As of August 29, 2025, it was 1,685.8, down 4.09% from the previous period and 1.83% from the same period last year [2][16] - NCFI: As of August 29, 2025, it was 929.56, down 14.25% from the previous period and 8.83% from the same period last year [2][16] Recent European Route Quotations - Week36: The latest quotes from shipping companies range from $2,120 - 2,420, with an average of $2,250 (1,550 points). PA Alliance quotes are between $2,200 - 2,300, MSK was initially $2,100 and then rose to $2,200, and OA Alliance quotes are between $2,300 - 2,400 [3][17] - Week37: The latest average quote is $2,100 (1,450 points). MSK's quote was initially $1,900 and then rose to $1,950, PA Alliance quotes are between $2,100 - 2,150, and OA Alliance quotes are between $2,100 - 2,300 [3][17] Fundamental Information - The weekly average shipping capacity in September and October is 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended voyages, it becomes 296,000 and 281,000 TEU [2][16] News - On September 1, US media reported that the US plans to rebuild Gaza and control the region for at least 10 years [4][18] - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces claimed to have attacked an oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. The Israeli military launched an air strike on Sana'a on August 28, and on August 31, Houthi leader Abdul - Malik al - Houthi said they would launch retaliation and escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel [4][18]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on September 2, 2025 [2] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - For the EC2510 contract, the previous closing price was 1291.4, with a 2.41% increase, a basis of 482.2, a trading volume of 29155, an open interest of 52271, and a change in open interest of -989 [2] - For the EC2512 contract, the previous closing price was 1640.9, with a 5.00% increase, a basis of 132.7, a trading volume of 11198, an open interest of 16495, and a change in open interest of -823 [2] - For the EC2602 contract, the previous closing price was 1461.3, with a 3.78% increase, a basis of 312.3, a trading volume of 1540, an open interest of 4846, and a change in open interest of 157 [2] - For the EC2604 contract, the previous closing price was 1241.8, with a 3.11% increase, a basis of 531.8, a trading volume of 1721, an open interest of 7069, and a change in open interest of -67 [2] - For the EC2606 contract, the previous closing price was 1428.5, with a 3.81% increase, a basis of 345.1, a trading volume of 174, an open interest of 890, and a change in open interest of 23 [2] Group 3: Month - Spread Information - The EC2510 - 2512 month - spread was -349.5, with a day - on - day change of -47.8 and a week - on - week change of -24.5 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 month - spread was 179.6, with a day - on - day change of 25.0 and a week - on - week change of 5.0 [2] Group 4: Spot Index Information - The SCHIS SCFI (European Line) index was 1773.6 points on September 1, 2025, down 10.88% from the previous period, and the previous decline was 8.71% [2] - The SCFI (European Line) was 1481 dollars/TEU on September 1, 2025, down 11.21% from the previous period, and the previous decline was 8.35% [2] - The CCFI was 1685.8 points on August 29, 2025, down 4.09% from the previous period, and the previous decline was 1.83% [2] - The NCFI was 929.56 points on August 29, 2025, down 14.25% from the previous period, and the previous decline was 8.83% [2] Group 5: Weekly Outlook - Currently, downstream customers are booking cabins for the first half of September (week 36 - 37). The average quote for week 36 is 2270 dollars (equivalent to 1600 points on the disk), and for week 37 is 2125 dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk) [2] - In September, the overall shipping capacity has been adjusted downward. The FAL3 of the OA Alliance will add a blank sailing in week 37. The FE3 of PA&MSC will add blank sailings in weeks 39 and 41 respectively, and the FE4 will add a blank sailing in week 41 [2] - The average weekly shipping capacity in September and October is 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as blank sailings, it will be 296,000 and 281,000 TEU [2] - The market pattern in September is loose, and the upward momentum will continue for at least the next two weeks. The decline in October depends on the shipping companies' blank - sailing behavior. In terms of valuation, the price of the 10 - contract is close to the annual low (1250 - 1300), with limited downside. The 12 - contract may decline in the short - term but is in the peak season and long - term contract negotiation season, so opportunities to go long on dips can be considered [2] Group 6: Recent European Line Quote Information - For week 36, the latest quotes from shipping companies range from 2120 to 2420 dollars, with an average of 2250 dollars (1550 points). The PA Alliance quotes 2200 - 2300 dollars, MSK quotes 2100 dollars (later rising to 2200 dollars), and the OA Alliance quotes 2300 - 2400 dollars [3] - For week 37, the latest average quote is 2100 dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk). MSK quotes 1900 dollars (later rising to 1950 dollars), the PA Alliance quotes 2100 - 2150 dollars, and the OA Alliance quotes 2100 - 2300 dollars [3] Group 7: Related News - On September 1, US media disclosed the US plan to rebuild Gaza, aiming to control the region for at least 10 years [4] - On September 1, the Yemeni Houthi rebels said they attacked the "ScarletRay" oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. The Israeli Defense Forces launched an air strike on Sanaa on August 28. On August 31, Houthi leader Abdul Malik Houthi said they would retaliate and escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel [4] Group 8: Note - The XSI - C index is released with a three - day delay [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened higher, moved up, and then fluctuated. By the close, the prices of all EC contracts had rebounded. The ruling by the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal brought positive macro - sentiment, leading to a recovery in futures prices. However, the current container shipping market is in the off - season, with relatively insufficient demand support, and the spot cabin quotes on the European line are still on a downward trend. For the future, it is more likely that EC will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the risk of some contracts falling from high levels [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents EC Risk Management Strategy Advice - For those with existing cabin positions but full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to lock in profits [1]. - For those who want to book cabins according to order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or the approaching peak season, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1150 - 1250 to determine booking costs in advance [1]. Market Data - **EC Contract Positions and Trading Volume**: In the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 433 to 27,805, short positions increased by 583 to 30,516, and trading volume increased by 4,936 to 32,358 (bilateral) [1]. - **EC Basis Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 482.20, down 30.40 from the previous day and 150.00 from the previous week; other contracts also showed different degrees of decline [4]. - **EC Prices and Spreads**: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1291.4, up 2.41% from the previous day and down 4.90% from the previous week; different contract spreads also changed [4]. - **Global Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route decreased by 10.88% to 1773.6; the SCFIS US - West route decreased by 5.87% to 1041.38; the SCFI European route decreased by 11.21% to 1481; the SCFI US - West route increased by 16.97% to 1923; other indices also had corresponding changes [8]. Shipping Company Quotes - **Maersk**: On September 11, the total quote for 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $1165, up $5 from the previous period; the total quote for 40GP was $1950, up $10 from the previous period [6]. - **MSC**: In early September, the total quote for 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $1280, down $126 from the previous period; the total quote for 40GP was $2140, down $212 from the previous period [6]. - **Herbert**: In early September, the average total quote for 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $1185, down $75 from the previous period; the average total quote for 40GP was $1935, down $150 from the previous period [7]. - **ONE**: In early September, the total quote for 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $2004, up $330 from the previous week; the total quote for 40GP was $2643, up $500 from the previous week [7]. Port and Ship - related Data - **Global Major Port Waiting Times**: On August 31, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.439 days, down 0.012 from the previous day; Shanghai Port was 1.340 days, down 0.341; other ports also had corresponding changes [15]. - **Ship Speeds and Waiting Ships in Suez Canal**: On August 31, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.826 knots, down 0.044 from the previous day; the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor was 17, down 2 from the previous day [23]. Market News - **Positive News**: The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal, which brought positive macro - sentiment [1][2]. - **Negative News**: Some shipping schedules of Mediterranean Shipping and Herbert on the European line in early September continued to lower their quotes, and the SCFIS European route accelerated its decline [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is challenging, so it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The overall supply - demand situation has no significant change. The freight rates on European routes continue to decline, the market is not optimistic about the subsequent freight rate trends, and the market remains under pressure [4]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Rate Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than 50.9 in July, improving for three consecutive months and reaching the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in August was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [2]. - The value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7); the preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3]. Market Situation - The SCFI maintains a downward trend, the market is under pressure and volatile, and it's not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [1]. - As of August 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1261.0, down 2.15%, with a trading volume of 25,200 lots and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 988 lots from the previous day [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - takers are recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - loss [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [5]. - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Other Information - The US - China tariff extension continues, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiation. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4]. - On August 29, the Israeli Defense Forces continued operations in the Middle East, including a "major strike" on strategic targets of the Yemeni Houthi rebels [6]. - On August 26, the US Department of Commerce made an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China, with a preliminary ruling unified duty rate of 83.64% (the margin after offsetting subsidies was adjusted to 73.10%). The anti - dumping final ruling is expected to be combined with the counter - subsidy final ruling on November 12, 2025 [6]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating weakly", and the trading strategy is "unilateral: oscillating weakly; arbitrage: 10 - 12 reverse spread rolling operation" [3] Core View of the Report - The freight rate of the container shipping index has been continuously falling and is approaching the cost line. Spot freight rates are bearish, with the September FAK freight rate center in the market at 2000 - 2200. Political and economic factors are neutral, and the container ship order book has reached 10 million TEU. The supply of shipping capacity is neutral, and the demand is also neutral. The OCEAN's September freight rate reduction rhythm has accelerated, which may put pressure on MSK to reduce prices to attract cargo. In the short term, the freight rate may fall below 1300, and the price of the 12 - contract is likely to show an oscillatingly weak operating trend [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The September prices of GEMINI, OA, PA, and MSC have all decreased, with the market FAK freight rate center in September at 2000 - 2200 [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Neutral. There are events such as the threat of revenge from the Yemeni Houthi armed forces, the extension of the exclusion list measures in the US - China trade investigation, the EU's proposed tariff on US goods, the container ship order book reaching 10 million TEU, and the US government's plan to expand national security tariffs [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The subsequent shipping capacity deployment shows different levels in different months, and there is a transfer of ships from the US line to the European line in September [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, and the OA alliance's loading rate has a relatively large decline, resulting in a relatively large price reduction recently [3] - **Summary and Strategy**: The OCEAN's freight rate reduction may put pressure on MSK. In the short term, the freight rate may fall below 1300, and the 12 - contract price is likely to be oscillatingly weak. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillating weakness and 10 - 12 reverse spread rolling operation [3] Part Two: Price - **Spot Market**: The demand recovery is slow, the supply is high, a new alliance has been established, and the price is falling in the off - season [5] Part Two: Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on container ship order volumes in different loading capacities and time periods [15] - **Delivery Volume**: Data on container ship delivery volumes in different loading capacities and time periods are presented [18][20] - **Future Delivery**: Information on future container ship deliveries in different loading capacities, time periods, and quarterly seasonality is provided [24][26][27] - **Shipbreaking Price**: Data on shipbreaking prices of container ships in different loading capacities and new - building prices, including indices and prices in different loading capacities, are shown [31][33] - **Second - hand Ship Price**: Information on second - hand container ship prices, including indices and prices of ships with different loading capacities and ages, is presented [37][39][41] - **Existing Capacity**: Data on the existing capacity of container ships, including total capacity, capacity in different loading capacities, the proportion of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofit ratios, average age, and shipbreaking average age, are provided [46][49][53] Part Three: Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule**: Data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, as well as the capacity deployments of different alliances and shipping companies, are presented [60][61][63] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: Information on container ships with installed, being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, as well as average speed and idle capacity, is provided [71][72][79]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core factors affecting the EC price trend this week are the weak demand in the off - season and the continuous decline of the spot cabin quotes for European routes in early September by major shipping companies, which has led to a decrease in the valuation of futures prices [2]. - The short - term futures price valuation is still relatively weak, but the ruling by the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump are illegal brings some positive macro - sentiment, and there is a relatively high possibility of a slight short - term rebound in the futures price [7]. - If the cease - fire agreement in Gaza is reached again or other geopolitical risks in the Middle East suddenly decrease, leading to the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, the freight rates for European routes will significantly decline. Also, the off - season demand may further weaken in the following months, and the support from demand during peak seasons like December may be relatively weak [8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Factors - The EC price is highly positively correlated with the spot cabin quotes for European routes. Currently, the market is in the off - season, with a significant decline in booking demand and weakened support for European route freight rates [2]. - In the short - term, the futures price may slightly rebound due to positive macro - sentiment, while in the long - term, if the Red Sea resumes shipping and the off - season demand weakens, the European route freight rates will decline [7][8]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in the middle of a downward trend. The short - term support level for the main contract is in the range of 1200 - 1250, and the pressure level is in the range of 1310 - 1360 [15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Considering the off - season and weak demand, one can choose to sell for hedging at high positions, with the recommended entry range being 1350 - 1400 [15]. - **Spot - Futures (Basis) Strategy**: Traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [15]. - **Arbitrage (Inter - period) Strategy**: It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [15]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions**: For companies with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits when they are worried about falling freight rates. For companies concerned about rising freight rates, they can buy container shipping index futures to determine booking costs in advance [14]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Comprehensive Freight Index**: The FBX comprehensive route index decreased by 3.46% week - on - week, the CICFI increased by 1.32%, the SCFI increased by 2.1%, the NCFI increased by 6.02%, the CCFI decreased by 1.58%, the CFFI decreased by 4.99%, the SCFIS for European routes decreased by 8.71%, the SCFIS for the US West Coast route decreased by 5.87%, the SCFI for European routes decreased by 11.21%, the SCFI for the US West Coast route increased by 16.97%, and the SCFI for the US East Coast route increased by 9.68% [16]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's global tariff measures were illegal. China's Ministry of Commerce is actively promoting Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Hamas has expressed its willingness to reach a cease - fire agreement, but Israel's Prime Minister has refused [27]. - **Negative Information**: Trump is trying to break the negotiation deadlock between Israel and Hamas. The spot cabin quotes for European routes in early September by major shipping companies continue to decline, and the SCFI for European routes is accelerating its decline [28][29]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The release of China's official manufacturing PMI for August and the final manufacturing PMI values for August in Europe and the US at the beginning of September [29]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation * Basis Structure - The European route of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) continued to decline, with the decline rate increasing to 8.71%. The basis between the main contract EC2510 and the spot market narrowed compared to the previous week. Traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [29]. * Monthly Spread Structure - The spreads of the inter - period contract combinations for European routes in container shipping (EC2510 - 2512, EC2510 - 2602, EC2512 - 2602) have converged. Traders can stay on the sidelines for now [31].