2025年7月22日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1460，下调（人民币升值）62点； 欧元/人民币报8.3601，上调373点； 港元/人民币报0.91034，下调9.1点； 英镑/人民币报9.6449，上调427点； 澳元/人民币报4.6654，上调59点； 加元/人民币报5.2282，上调130点； 100日元/人民币报4.8514，上调259点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.9124，下调525点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.2680，上调86点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59165，下调6.6点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.9580，上调270点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5868，上调151点。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.80% to close at 98.64, with a weekly high of 98.95 [1] - USD/CNY rose by 0.10% to 7.1776, while USD/CNH increased by 0.11% to 7.1802 [1] - The Chinese Yuan showed mixed performance against other currencies, with notable declines against EUR, JPY, and AUD [1] Group 2: Economic Data Focus - Key economic data releases include the US Leading Economic Index for June, expected to decline from -0.1% to -0.2% [2] - The Eurozone's manufacturing and services PMI for July are anticipated to improve, while the US manufacturing PMI is expected to drop from 52.9 to 52.5 [2][4] - The US durable goods orders for June are forecasted to decrease significantly by 10.5% after a previous increase of 16.4% [2] Group 3: Central Bank Decisions - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming meeting, with market focus on President Lagarde's comments regarding future monetary policy [3][11] - The market anticipates that the ECB will continue to reference inflation and tariff policies in its future decisions, which could impact the Euro's value [3][11] Group 4: Currency Trends - The USD/CNY is expected to remain stable around 7.18, influenced by the performance of the US Dollar Index [9][10] - The Euro is projected to face downward pressure if the ECB signals potential rate cuts, especially with upcoming PMI data expected to show improvement [11] - The Japanese Yen is under pressure due to inflation data and impending tariffs from the US, with the USD/JPY reaching a high of 149.18 [15]

短短半年之间，人民币发生巨变——从"对美元从快要跌破7.4"到"一度升至7.16"，从"华尔街投行一 致悲观预测的7.6"到如今的"7.0不是梦"。究竟什么变了？未来汇率的潜在客观走势如何？ 本文来自微信公众号： 秦朔朋友圈 （ID：qspyq2015） ，作者：Irene Zhou，题图来自：AI生成 6月开始，随着中美谈判缓和，人民币就开启了一轮对美元的升值行情，这也和亚洲货币升值潮同 步，毕竟今年以来美元指数贬值幅度达到10%。 高盛也在7月初高调表示——预计美元/离岸人民币未来三个月将缓慢下探至7.1，年底前降至7.0。一 时间，"保7争6"的预测不绝于耳。 事实上，不确定性依然存在，中国出口情况、美联储降息节奏等将成为主导因素。 美元反击、欧元故事又讲不下去 了 上半年，欧元一度对美元大涨近14%，美国政策的反复和关税大棒的折腾也加剧了这种行情，带有情 绪的欧洲投资者甩卖美元资产，持有大量美元敞口的亚洲出口商开始紧急结汇，加速了美元的贬值。 由于欧元在美元指数中的占比高达近60%，这也导致美元指数节节败退，此前最低跌至96，累计贬值 幅度一度超10%。然而，近期"强欧元"的故事有点讲不下去了。 在特 ...

7月19日，在岸人民币对美元夜盘收盘报7.1758，较上一交易日夜盘收涨51个基点；离岸人民币对美元 报7.1813元，较上一交易日纽约尾盘涨31点。 7月18日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1498，下调37.00点。 近期，人民币中间价不断释放稳定信号。多家外资行交易员和策略师表示，面对8月1日"对等"关税的不 确定性，人民币中间价的逆周期因子已经非常小，但仍存在接近200个点的调节幅度，显示了中国央行 一定的呵护意愿。但即期交易顺应了近期强美元的逻辑，下半年人民币汇率将继续受到美元指数走势的 影响。 年中，重磅发布会接踵而至。7月14日、15日，国务院新闻办举行两场新闻发布会，邀请中国人民银行 副行长邹澜、国家统计局副局长盛来运，分别介绍上半年货币信贷政策执行及金融统计数据情况、上半 年国民经济运行情况。邹澜在会上表示，当前，美元走势仍然有不确定性，但中国国内基本面持续向 好，人民币汇率保持双向浮动、基本稳定具有坚实的基础。【此前报道：】 邹澜提出，各方面对美联储的货币政策变化非常关注，近期美国经济增速有所放缓，但物价水平仍然高 于美联储的目标水平，关税政策进一步增加了美国通胀走势的不确定性，影响美联储降息 ...

智通财经7月18日电，在岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1766，较上一交易日上涨30点。 ...

Currency Exchange Rate Analysis - The exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD) is 7.1526, showing a slight appreciation compared to the previous day, which is favorable for families traveling to the US or sending children to study there [1] - The Euro (EUR) exchange rate stands at 8.3157, indicating a higher travel cost for those visiting European countries, suggesting travelers consider exchange promotions or using credit cards for transactions [1] - The Japanese Yen (JPY) is at 4.8134 for 100 JPY, presenting a good opportunity for purchasing Japanese goods, with local card usage and tax refunds being more economical than cash exchange [2] - The British Pound (GBP) is at 9.5948, increasing the cost for students studying in the UK, recommending a staggered exchange strategy to mitigate potential losses [2] - The Australian Dollar (AUD) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) are at 4.6733 and 5.2242 respectively, both showing slight depreciation, which is beneficial for students and travelers to Australia and Canada [2] Regional Currency Exchange Rates - The exchange rate for the Macanese Pataca (MOP) is 1.1309, and for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) it is 0.59275, providing reference points for travelers to Macau and Malaysia [5] - The South Korean Won (KRW) is at 193.31, indicating stability for those purchasing beauty products in South Korea [5] - The Swedish Krona (SEK) and Norwegian Krone (NOK) are at 1.3547 and 1.4286 respectively, suggesting travelers to Northern Europe should carefully calculate expenses and compare exchange options [5] Currency Exchange Tips - It is advisable to exchange currency in batches to spread the risk associated with exchange rate fluctuations [9] - Monitoring the bank's exchange rates and choosing banks with lower fees for currency exchange is recommended [9] - Using credit cards for overseas transactions may offer real-time exchange rates that could be more favorable than cash exchange [9]

2025年7月18日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1498，上调（人民币贬值）37点； 欧元/人民币报8.3151，下调56点； 港元/人民币报0.91092，上调5.7点； 英镑/人民币报9.6149，上调196点； 澳元/人民币报4.6527，下调131点； 加元/人民币报5.2104，下调170点； 100日元/人民币报4.8262，下调144点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.8817，下调240点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.2582，上调57点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59327，上调1.3点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.9175，下调139点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5692，下调110点。 ...

Monetary Policy Overview - In the first half of the year, China's monetary policy can be divided into two phases, with a cautious approach in Q1 due to exchange rate depreciation pressures and strong market expectations [1] - In April, the focus shifted to "stabilizing growth" as the primary goal of monetary policy, leading to a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates in May [1][2] - The expectation for the second half of the year is that monetary policy will continue to emphasize "stabilizing growth," with potential for further easing measures [1][2] Economic Indicators - The growth rate of social financing increased to 8.9% year-on-year, supported by government bond financing, but may face challenges in the second half due to a potential slowdown in new government debt issuance [3] - The total scale of government bonds for the year is projected at 13.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.9 billion yuan compared to 2024 [3] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The overall trend for the US dollar is expected to remain weak, influenced by concerns over US economic recession and the long-term trend of de-dollarization in global markets [3][4] - A weaker dollar is anticipated to provide effective support for the Chinese yuan, with expectations of a slight appreciation to around 7 to 7.1 [4]

Group 1 - The onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) closed at 7.1809 against the US dollar at 03:00 Beijing time, reflecting a decline of 38 points compared to the previous night’s close [1] - The trading volume for the yuan was reported at 34.010 billion USD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1796, marking a decrease of 20 points from the previous trading day [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Currency Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, closing at 7.1796 [1] - This represents a decline of 20 points compared to the previous trading day [1]