Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has appreciated, breaking the 7.19 mark for the first time since November last year, driven by multiple factors including the US-China trade dialogue and strong consumption during the May Day holiday [1][2] - On May 2, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate saw a significant increase, with a single-day rise exceeding 600 basis points, and on May 5, it continued to rise, touching 7.18940 with an intraday increase of over 130 basis points [2] - Analysts attribute the RMB appreciation to several factors, including positive signals from the US regarding tariff negotiations, strong domestic consumption during the holiday, and increased foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds amid heightened global market volatility [2] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable with a solid foundation, fluctuating around a reasonable equilibrium level [3] - The domestic economic fundamentals have improved since late last year, with factors such as economic recovery, confidence boosting, risk mitigation, and technological empowerment contributing to the stability of the RMB [3] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to enhance market resilience and stabilize expectations while preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [3]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has shown strong performance against the USD, with significant appreciation driven by a softening stance from the US on tariff issues and positive economic indicators from China [1][4][6]. Exchange Rate Performance - On May 5, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate rose above 7.19, reaching a high of 7.189, marking the first time since November 2024 that it surpassed this level [1][3]. - During the "May Day" holiday, the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.9% against the USD [1][6]. - As of May 5, the offshore RMB was reported at 7.2036, with a daily increase of 0.11% [3]. Economic Indicators - In Q1, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with imports and exports totaling 10.3 trillion RMB, a 1.3% increase [6]. - The positive economic data has provided strong support for the RMB exchange rate [6]. Policy and Market Sentiment - Analysts attribute the recent strength of the offshore RMB to expectations of a more dovish US Federal Reserve and signals of easing tensions in the US-China trade war [4][8]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate and managing market expectations effectively [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the onshore RMB may experience a rebound following the "May Day" holiday, influenced by ongoing US-China trade negotiations and the USD's performance [8]. - The RMB is expected to exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation against the USD, with potential for smaller amplitude movements [8].

5月5日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率持续走强，盘中一度升破7.19关口，为2024年11月以来首次。 时隔半年，离岸人民币兑美元汇率终于站上7.20的关键心理关口，反映出市场对人民币汇率的乐观预 期。市场人士指出，对于"五一"假日期间人民币汇率的大幅升值，可以看作是一次市场预期调整带来的 补涨。 人民币强势回归，美方多次表态愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判 "五一"假日期间，人民币汇率持续走高是多因素综合作用的结果。5月2日，中国商务部新闻发言人表 示，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通过相关方面 多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。 内部方面，一季度中国经济和外贸在压力下展现出较强的韧性。数据显示，初步核算，一季度中国国内 生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.4%，比上年四季度环比增长1.2%。一季度，我国货物贸易进出口10.3万亿 元人民币，同比增长1.3%。其中，出口6.13万亿元，增长6.9%。一季度中国经济的亮眼表现，对人民币 汇率估值形成支撑。 在政策层面，近日央行副行长邹澜表示，下一阶段，中国人民银行将坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮 子货币进 ...

Core Insights - The relationship between the US interest rate hikes and the RMB exchange rate is complex and not straightforward, influenced by various economic factors and international politics [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to raise the federal funds rate acts as a significant shock to global financial markets, particularly affecting countries with close trade ties to China [1][2] Group 1: Impact of US Interest Rate Hikes - When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the cost of borrowing in USD increases, prompting investors to reassess their asset allocations [2] - A hypothetical scenario illustrates that if a company issues a $100 billion bond in China, with $50 billion purchased by US investors, the rising borrowing costs could lead to shifts in investment strategies [2] Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - If the RMB appreciates against the USD, Chinese investors may prefer holding USD assets for higher returns; conversely, if the RMB depreciates, they may shift towards RMB assets [4] - The RMB's fluctuations are primarily driven by market supply and demand, influenced by a basket of currencies, and not solely determined by US interest rate changes [4] - The ongoing trade relations between China and the US, particularly in the context of US protectionist policies, can exert pressure on the RMB exchange rate [4] Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - Despite potential depreciation, the strong economic foundation and growth potential of China provide a basis for RMB appreciation in the future [4] - As China's economy continues to grow steadily and reforms progress, the RMB exchange rate is expected to stabilize at a more reasonable level [4]

离岸人民币兑美元升破7.20关口，为去年11月以来首次，日内涨超100点。 ...

最新盘面消息：5月5日，人民币继续飙涨，A50指数期货拉升。 最新数据显示， 离岸人民币兑美元升穿7.20关口，为去年11月以来首次，日内涨超100点。 另外，台币也大涨。台币兑美元盘初升破30大关，报29.990，日内涨近3.5%，为2023年2月8日以来新高。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普最新表示，授权商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有在国外制作的进入美国的电影征收100%的关税。 消息发布后，美元指数快速走低。 富时中国A50指数期货直线拉升，最新报涨0.84%。 | 分时 | 5日 ▼ 5分钟 更多周期 ▼● 竞价 ▼ | 叠加▼ | 画线 | 显示▼ | 简约 | 隐藏 ▶▶ 23 | | A50期指当月连续 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | A50期指当月连续 分时 成交量 持仓量 | | | | | | | CN00Y | | | 000000 13264.0 | | | | | | 0 070/ 0.84% | | +111.0 13264.0 +0.84% | | | 13248.8 ...

Group 1 - The US-China trade tensions are ongoing, with the US threatening to delist Chinese companies from US stock exchanges, which could harm the US capital market more than China in the long run [1] - The current state of the A-share market shows that the ChiNext index needs to rise approximately 6% to recover from recent losses, indicating a challenging environment for growth without strong leading stocks [3] - The offshore RMB has seen a significant rebound, with a single-day increase of over 700 points, driven by improved expectations for US-China trade negotiations and increased foreign investment in Chinese assets [5] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve decides to implement monetary easing, it could lead to a short-term upward movement in major indices, but the likelihood of replicating past market rallies is considered low due to diminishing policy effects [7] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on May 6-7 is a critical point for market expectations regarding interest rate changes, which could influence market movements significantly [7]

每经记者 陈植 每经编辑 马子卿 上述香港银行外汇交易员指出，外汇市场目前密切关注央行降准降息的具体时间，多数境外投资机构认为，这既有助于中国经济基本面稳健发展，也有助于 人民币汇率在均衡合理水准继续保持平稳波动。 人民币汇率收复4月初以来所有跌幅 在4月初美国出台所谓"对等关税"政策后，境内人民币汇率一度跌至年内低点7.3515；离岸人民币月内一度跌破7.42关口。上述香港银行外汇交易员告诉记 者："当时，外汇市场担心美国所谓'对等关税'会影响我国外贸增长趋势，相应增加人民币空头头寸，进行沽空套利。" 但是，多数海外投机资本的沽空人民币力度相当克制，他们主要采取按日借入离岸人民币头寸抛售沽空的做法，且借入离岸人民币头寸的资金杠杆倍数不超 过2倍，处于相对较低的水准。究其原因，是他们担心一旦人民币汇率出现过度下跌，我国相关部门将很快采取新一轮稳汇率举措，令其沽空人民币套利策 略面临较大的风险。 截至4月30日20时30分，在岸人民币对美元汇率徘徊在7.267附近；此外，离岸人民币近两日最高升破7.26关口至7.25699，截至4月30日20时30分，报价为 7.2686。这意味着人民币汇率基本收复4月初以来所 ...

导读 2025年4月22日，由中国人民大学深圳研究院（社会科学高等研究院（深圳））主办，中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）、中国人民大学深圳金融高 等研究院共同承办的"人大深圳社科沙龙"（第49期）暨"大金融思想沙龙"（总第252期）在线上成功举行，本次会议的主题为： "全球经济变局下的人民 币汇率观察"。 IMI研究员、中国人民大学财政金融学院副教授陆利平发表主题报告， 中国人民大学经济学院原党委常务副书记兼副院长王晋斌，国家发展和改革委员会 宏观经济研究院研究员曲凤杰，北京航空航天大学经济管理学院金融学教授谭小芬，华创证券研究所副所长、首席宏观分析师张瑜等嘉宾出席会议并参与 研讨。本次沙龙由 中国人民大学财政金融学院教授张顺明主持。 主题报告 沙龙第一环节，由 IMI研究员、中国人民大学财政金融学院副教授陆利平发表主题报告，提出三方面观点，一是近期全球经济格局面临重大变化，美国对 华关税政策对中国出口和经济增长带来不确定性，人民币汇率承压。美元指数持续走弱及美国经济衰退预期持续作用于汇率。二是贸易摩擦是影响汇率走 势的重要因素，本轮摩擦中人民币短期贬值后迅速反弹，波动性明显增强。三是人民币汇率同时面临多 ...

100日元 5.0872人民币 100港元 92.813人民币 100英镑 968.67人民币 100澳元 461.77人民币 100新西兰元 429.96人民币 100新加坡元 552.19人民币 100瑞士法郎 876.4人民币 100加元 522.98人民币 100人民币 111.03澳门元 100人民币 59.837马来西亚林吉特 100人民币 1128.33俄罗斯卢布 100人民币 256.88南非兰特 100人民币 19747韩元 100人民币 50.795阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币 51.875沙特里亚尔 100人民币 4911.05匈牙利福林 100人民币 51.867波兰兹罗提 100人民币 90.79丹麦克朗 100人民币 133.26瑞典克朗 100人民币 143.49挪威克朗 100人民币 532.563土耳其里拉 100人民币 270.84墨西哥比索 100人民币 461.39泰铢（完） 4月30日人民币汇率中间价如下： 新华社北京4月30日电 中国外汇交易中心4月30日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰 ...