周三（11月26日）纽约尾盘，英镑兑美元涨0.53%，有望连续五个交易日反弹（期内累计涨幅大约 1.38%），报1.3242，北京时间20:12曾经跌至1.3125刷新日低。欧元兑美元涨0.23%，报1.1597；欧元兑 英镑跌0.30%，报0.87599，20:12一度冲高至0.88181。美元兑瑞郎跌0.42%，报0.8041。商品货币对中， 澳元兑美元涨0.78%，纽元兑美元涨1.32%——09:00出现一波短线拉升行情，美元兑加元跌0.41%。瑞 典克朗兑美元涨0.42%，挪威克朗兑美元涨0.31%，丹麦克朗兑美元涨0.22%。波兰兹罗提兑美元大致持 平，匈牙利福林兑美元涨0.32%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the movements of the Euro, British Pound, and other currencies against the US Dollar, indicating a mixed performance in the foreign exchange market on November 11. Currency Movements - The Euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US Dollar, reaching 1.1586, and stabilized around 1.1560 before a short-term surge at 21:21 [1] - The British Pound decreased by 0.06% against the US Dollar, trading at 1.3166, and experienced a sharp decline to a daily low of 1.3117 following the release of UK employment data at 15:00 [1] - The Euro gained 0.32% against the British Pound [1] Other Currency Pairs - The US Dollar depreciated by 0.59% against the Swiss Franc, settling at 0.8003, with a notable decline after 21:00 [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian Dollar fell by 0.11% against the US Dollar, while the New Zealand Dollar rose by 0.19% [1] - The US Dollar also saw a decrease of 0.07% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish Krona appreciated by 0.63% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krona increased by 0.79% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krona rose by 0.25% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty gained 0.38% against the US Dollar, while the Hungarian Forint saw a slight decline of 0.05% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and other currencies on November 10th, with notable movements in commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars [1] Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar rose by 0.39% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.02 yen, with a trading range of 153.36 to 154.25 yen throughout the day [1] - The euro increased by 0.36% against the Japanese yen, while the British pound rose by 0.56% against the same currency [1] - The euro dipped by 0.04% against the US dollar, whereas the British pound appreciated by 0.15% against the US dollar [1] - The Australian dollar gained 0.71% against the US dollar, trading at 0.6538, with a notable V-shaped movement observed [1] - The New Zealand dollar increased by 0.43% against the US dollar, while the Canadian dollar fell by 0.19% against the US dollar [1] - The Swedish krona rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krona increased by 0.43%, while the Danish krone slightly decreased by 0.03% [1] - The Polish zloty appreciated by 0.17% against the US dollar, and the Hungarian forint rose by 0.11% against the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced fluctuations against the Japanese yen, with notable movements following the release of employment data and the ISM non-manufacturing index, indicating market reactions to economic indicators [1] Currency Movements - The US dollar rose by 0.29% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.11 yen, after hitting a low of 152.96 yen earlier in the day [1] - Following the release of the US small non-farm employment data at 21:15, the dollar maintained a slight upward trend [1] - The dollar peaked at 154.36 yen after the ISM non-manufacturing index was released at 23:00 [1] Other Currency Pairs - The euro increased by 0.36% against the yen, reaching 177.08 yen [1] - The British pound rose by 0.50% against the yen, reaching 201.090 yen [1] - The euro gained 0.07% against the US dollar, while the British pound increased by 0.21% against the dollar [1] - The Swiss franc saw a slight decline of 0.01% against the dollar [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian dollar rose by 0.28% against the US dollar [1] - The New Zealand dollar increased by 0.36% against the US dollar [1] - The Canadian dollar saw a minor increase of 0.03% against the US dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.17% against the US dollar [1] - The Norwegian krone rose by 0.09% against the US dollar [1] - The Danish krone increased by 0.08% against the US dollar [1] - The Polish zloty gained 0.19% against the US dollar and 0.12% against the euro [1] - The Hungarian forint appreciated by 0.45% against the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly focusing on the performance of the Euro, British Pound, and various commodity currencies against the US Dollar on November 3rd. Currency Performance - The Euro declined by 0.17% against the US Dollar, closing at 1.1522 [1] - The British Pound fell by 0.08%, ending at 1.3142 against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar appreciated by 0.41% against the Swiss Franc, reaching 0.8079, with a peak of 0.8092 later in the day [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian Dollar decreased by 0.13% against the US Dollar [1] - The New Zealand Dollar dropped by 0.26% against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar rose by 0.30% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Other Currencies - The Swedish Krona increased by 0.09% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krona slightly decreased by 0.03% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krona fell by 0.11% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty declined by 0.12% against the US Dollar [1] - The Hungarian Forint appreciated by 0.06% against the US Dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts is expected to lead to a decrease in dollar interest returns, prompting a shift of global funds from dollar assets to non-dollar assets, particularly in emerging markets with relatively high interest rates and strong economic fundamentals in non-US developed economies [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates two more times this year, which may encourage investors to borrow low-interest dollars and invest in high-interest non-dollar assets [3]. - The Fed's recent 0.25% rate cut marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, with expectations of continued rate cuts in future meetings [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - With the Fed's rate cuts, there is an expectation of increased volatility in risk assets, leading to potential investment opportunities in global equities, certain non-dollar currencies, long-duration high-rated government or corporate bonds, and cyclical commodities [3]. - The reduction in interest rates is likely to boost bond prices, particularly long-term bonds, suggesting an increased allocation to long-duration bonds and high-rated government and corporate bonds [8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Asset Allocation - The current economic uncertainty may lead to heightened risk aversion in the market, with a focus on the implications of the Fed's actions on various asset classes [9]. - The dollar is expected to weaken against the euro and pound due to the Fed's faster rate cuts compared to other central banks, with a recommendation to focus on currencies like the euro, Australian dollar, and Norwegian krone [10].

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that despite a more than 10% decline in the US dollar index in 2025, a sustained rebound is unlikely due to a slowing US economy and potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - As of August 29, the US dollar index has dropped 10.6% year-to-date, marking the largest half-year decline since the second half of 1991 and the worst start in over 50 years [1] - The decline in the dollar is attributed to a structural trend where global central banks are reducing their reliance on the dollar, which may weaken demand for alternative currencies in the long term [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - UBS expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a cumulative 100 basis points over the next 12 months starting in September, which could further weaken the dollar compared to other central banks that have already halted rate cuts [2] - Concerns over softening US economic and employment data may lead to market expectations for quicker and deeper rate cuts, contributing to a faster depreciation of the dollar [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - UBS advises investors to reduce, hedge, and diversify their dollar exposure, suggesting an increase in allocations to alternative currencies such as the euro, Norwegian krone, and Australian dollar to mitigate dollar risk [2] - It is recommended that investors reassess their strategic currency allocations to align with long-term goals, assets, liabilities, and future income [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against other currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound [1]. Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar depreciated by 0.31% against the Japanese yen, closing at 147.38 yen, with a trading range of 148.17 to 147.09 yen during the day [1]. - The euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar [1]. - The British pound increased by 0.56% against the US dollar [1]. - The US dollar fell by 0.25% against the Swiss franc [1]. - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar increased by 0.32% [1]. - The US dollar experienced a slight decline of 0.08% against the Canadian dollar [1]. - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.11% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone rose by 0.17% [1]. - The Danish krone increased by 0.26% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty appreciated by 0.28% [1].

Currency Movements - The euro depreciated by 3.14% against the US dollar, closing at 1.1418 on July 31, following a V-shaped trend from July 1-25, with a continuous decline from July 28-31 after a trade agreement between the US and Europe [1] - The British pound fell by 3.80% against the US dollar, closing at 1.3210, while the US dollar appreciated by 2.46% against the Swiss franc, closing at 0.8126 [2] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar declined by 2.33% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar fell by 3.40%, and the US dollar rose by 1.79% against the Canadian dollar [3] - The Swedish krona depreciated by 3.38% against the US dollar, the Norwegian krone fell by 2.50%, the Danish krone decreased by 3.17%, while the Polish zloty appreciated by 3.98% against the US dollar [3]

Core Points - The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, rising by 0.71% to 149.52 yen, with a trading range of 147.81 to 149.53 yen during the day [1] - The release of US GDP data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference led to two waves of upward movement in the market [1] - The euro and British pound both declined against the yen, with the euro down 0.52% and the pound down 0.13% [1] Currency Movements - The euro fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the British pound decreased by 0.84% against the dollar [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar dropped by 1.15% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar fell by 1.00% [1] - The US dollar appreciated against the Canadian dollar by 0.44% [1] Other Currency Trends - The Swedish krona declined by 1.47% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 1.18% [1] - The Danish krone fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the Polish zloty dropped by 1.14% [1]