美联储一如预期减息0.25厘，开启新一轮宽松进程。美联储虽小幅调升美国经济增长和通胀预期，但市场普遍预测未来3次议息会议仍有继续减息空间。美 联储减息搅动投资市场，全球资金面临大洗牌，近来各类资产总体呈现震荡态势。有专家分析称，随着美联储减息进程重启，风险资产短期或进入波动期， 部分全球资金有望从「美元资产」流向「非美元资产」，料部分投资者未来或借入低息美元，并将资金投入高息非美元资产，开展套利交易。建议投资者关 注全球股市、部分非美元货币、长久期高评级政府或公司债，及周期性大宗商品的投资机会。 ●香港文汇报记者 倪巍晨 上海报道 内地经济学家宋清辉指出，美联储减息进程重启，美元的利息回报将随之降低，持有美元的收益亦将减少。鉴于此，全球资金或从「美元资产」流向「非美 元资产」，包括利率相对较高的新兴市场，以及经济基本面较强的非美发达经济体。此外，部分国际投资者也可能借入低息美元，并将资金投入高息非美元 资产，开展套利交易。 专家料资金由美元资产流出 restly of the research and and on and on the many of the may be and 著名经济学家宋清辉指出，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that despite a more than 10% decline in the US dollar index in 2025, a sustained rebound is unlikely due to a slowing US economy and potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - As of August 29, the US dollar index has dropped 10.6% year-to-date, marking the largest half-year decline since the second half of 1991 and the worst start in over 50 years [1] - The decline in the dollar is attributed to a structural trend where global central banks are reducing their reliance on the dollar, which may weaken demand for alternative currencies in the long term [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - UBS expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a cumulative 100 basis points over the next 12 months starting in September, which could further weaken the dollar compared to other central banks that have already halted rate cuts [2] - Concerns over softening US economic and employment data may lead to market expectations for quicker and deeper rate cuts, contributing to a faster depreciation of the dollar [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - UBS advises investors to reduce, hedge, and diversify their dollar exposure, suggesting an increase in allocations to alternative currencies such as the euro, Norwegian krone, and Australian dollar to mitigate dollar risk [2] - It is recommended that investors reassess their strategic currency allocations to align with long-term goals, assets, liabilities, and future income [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against other currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound [1]. Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar depreciated by 0.31% against the Japanese yen, closing at 147.38 yen, with a trading range of 148.17 to 147.09 yen during the day [1]. - The euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar [1]. - The British pound increased by 0.56% against the US dollar [1]. - The US dollar fell by 0.25% against the Swiss franc [1]. - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar increased by 0.32% [1]. - The US dollar experienced a slight decline of 0.08% against the Canadian dollar [1]. - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.11% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone rose by 0.17% [1]. - The Danish krone increased by 0.26% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty appreciated by 0.28% [1].

Currency Movements - The euro depreciated by 3.14% against the US dollar, closing at 1.1418 on July 31, following a V-shaped trend from July 1-25, with a continuous decline from July 28-31 after a trade agreement between the US and Europe [1] - The British pound fell by 3.80% against the US dollar, closing at 1.3210, while the US dollar appreciated by 2.46% against the Swiss franc, closing at 0.8126 [2] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar declined by 2.33% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar fell by 3.40%, and the US dollar rose by 1.79% against the Canadian dollar [3] - The Swedish krona depreciated by 3.38% against the US dollar, the Norwegian krone fell by 2.50%, the Danish krone decreased by 3.17%, while the Polish zloty appreciated by 3.98% against the US dollar [3]

Core Points - The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, rising by 0.71% to 149.52 yen, with a trading range of 147.81 to 149.53 yen during the day [1] - The release of US GDP data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference led to two waves of upward movement in the market [1] - The euro and British pound both declined against the yen, with the euro down 0.52% and the pound down 0.13% [1] Currency Movements - The euro fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the British pound decreased by 0.84% against the dollar [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar dropped by 1.15% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar fell by 1.00% [1] - The US dollar appreciated against the Canadian dollar by 0.44% [1] Other Currency Trends - The Swedish krona declined by 1.47% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 1.18% [1] - The Danish krone fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the Polish zloty dropped by 1.14% [1]

Group 1 - The euro declined by 1.30% against the US dollar, closing at 1.1588 after a period of high volatility following a tariff agreement between the EU and the US [1] - The euro also fell against the British pound by 0.76%, against the Swiss franc by 0.24%, and against the Danish krone by 0.01%, while it rose against the Polish zloty by 0.36% [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.62% against the US dollar, while the US dollar appreciated by 1.07% against the Swiss franc [1] Group 2 - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell by 0.70% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar dropped by 0.86% [2] - The Swedish krona declined by 0.96% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 0.38% [2] - The Danish krone fell by 1.29% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty dropped by 1.65% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The currency market experienced fluctuations with the US dollar showing mixed performance against major currencies, particularly a decline against the Japanese yen and a rise against the euro and British pound [1] Currency Performance - The US dollar fell by 0.48% against the Japanese yen, closing at 146.67 yen, with a trading range of 147.95 to 146.31 yen during the day [1] - The euro remained stable against the yen, while the British pound decreased by 0.19% against the yen [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.50% against the US dollar, and the British pound increased by 0.30% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar declined by 0.72% against the Swiss franc [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian dollar rose by 0.45% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar increased by 0.56% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar fell by 0.57% against the Canadian dollar [1] Scandinavian Currencies - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.66% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krone increased by 0.81% [1] - The Danish krone rose by 0.52% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty increased by 0.32% against the US dollar [1]

Currency Exchange Rate Analysis - The exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD) is 7.1526, showing a slight appreciation compared to the previous day, which is favorable for families traveling to the US or sending children to study there [1] - The Euro (EUR) exchange rate stands at 8.3157, indicating a higher travel cost for those visiting European countries, suggesting travelers consider exchange promotions or using credit cards for transactions [1] - The Japanese Yen (JPY) is at 4.8134 for 100 JPY, presenting a good opportunity for purchasing Japanese goods, with local card usage and tax refunds being more economical than cash exchange [2] - The British Pound (GBP) is at 9.5948, increasing the cost for students studying in the UK, recommending a staggered exchange strategy to mitigate potential losses [2] - The Australian Dollar (AUD) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) are at 4.6733 and 5.2242 respectively, both showing slight depreciation, which is beneficial for students and travelers to Australia and Canada [2] Regional Currency Exchange Rates - The exchange rate for the Macanese Pataca (MOP) is 1.1309, and for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) it is 0.59275, providing reference points for travelers to Macau and Malaysia [5] - The South Korean Won (KRW) is at 193.31, indicating stability for those purchasing beauty products in South Korea [5] - The Swedish Krona (SEK) and Norwegian Krone (NOK) are at 1.3547 and 1.4286 respectively, suggesting travelers to Northern Europe should carefully calculate expenses and compare exchange options [5] Currency Exchange Tips - It is advisable to exchange currency in batches to spread the risk associated with exchange rate fluctuations [9] - Monitoring the bank's exchange rates and choosing banks with lower fees for currency exchange is recommended [9] - Using credit cards for overseas transactions may offer real-time exchange rates that could be more favorable than cash exchange [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against other currencies on July 8th, with specific focus on the dollar's strength against the Japanese yen and other currencies [1]. Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar rose by 0.34% against the Japanese yen, reaching 146.55 yen, with a trading range of 145.83 to 146.98 yen during the day [1]. - The euro appreciated by 0.16% against the US dollar, while the British pound decreased by 0.08% against the dollar [1]. - The Swiss franc saw a decline of 0.32% against the US dollar [1]. - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar increased by 0.60% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.07%, while the Canadian dollar fell by 0.14% against the US dollar [1]. - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.18% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone increased by 0.42% [1]. - The Danish krone rose by 0.15% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty appreciated by 0.31% against the US dollar [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Norwegian krone is expected to recover from its recent decline following an unexpected interest rate cut by the Norwegian central bank, according to UBS Global Wealth Management analysts [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The depreciation of the Norwegian krone is unlikely to persist as the market may reduce its bets on further interest rate cuts [1]. - Norway is less susceptible to the impact of U.S. tariffs compared to other countries, which may support the krone's recovery [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - If the euro/Norwegian krone exchange rate breaks above 12.1200 next month, UBS is inclined to sell euros [1].