自从特朗普上任以来，美联储主席鲍威尔就已经成了特朗普主要抨击对象，可以说是啥时候想起来，啥时候都会抨击！ 对此，特朗普还给鲍威尔起了多个称谓，比如最好听的一个"太迟先生"，其余称谓要比这个难听太多了！ 而这一切的主要因素，就是特朗普多次施压鲍威尔降息，然而鲍威尔一直因为关税为通胀带来不确定性，同时就业劳动力市场依然强劲，始终没有降息。 鲍威尔还曾公开表示，美联储不降息的主要原因就是美国总统特朗普的关税政策，最终又把这个锅甩给了特朗普。 特朗普频繁施压也看不到降息的希望，就将降息转变为换个美联储主席！ 7月19日，据知情人士透露，美国财政部长贝森特近日私下向总统特朗普建议：不应试图解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。这一举动发生在特朗普对鲍威尔"加码逼 宫"的关键时刻，凸显了白宫内部在美联储问题上的深刻分歧。 特朗普政府找到了一个全新的、极具画面感的武器，来攻击鲍威尔——美联储总部的翻修工程。 白宫预算办主任沃特公开炮轰，称这项耗资近25亿美元的工程是"招摇的大修"，指责其包含VIP餐厅等奢华设施，成本远超同类项目。这顶帽子扣下来，足 以煽动起民众对"官僚浪费"的怒火。 共和党议员卢娜更是直接捅到了司法部，举报鲍威尔在国会听 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing turbulence due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates, with significant implications for various sectors and companies [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Dallas Fed President Logan emphasized that interest rates must remain restrictive for at least 6-12 months, dampening market expectations for rate cuts [3]. - The June CPI data showed an overall inflation rate of 2.7% and core inflation at 2.9%, which is still above the Fed's 2% target, supporting Logan's firm position [3]. - Following Logan's speech, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 5% for the first time since June, indicating rising borrowing costs [3]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - President Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve, calling for a 3% rate cut, arguing it could save the government $1 trillion annually [5]. - The selection process for Powell's successor has begun, with indications that Trump's senior economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, is a leading candidate, which could signal a shift in Fed policy [6]. Group 3: Trade War Implications - Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods from the EU and Mexico, escalating trade tensions and increasing geopolitical risks [6]. - The market's reaction to these tariffs has been mixed, with gold prices supported as a safe haven, while the strengthening dollar has put pressure on gold prices [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Nvidia's stock rose 4% after the U.S. government approved its export of AI accelerators to China, reflecting a significant shift in U.S.-China tech policy [7]. - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 0.1%, with concerns over rising U.S. Treasury yields affecting market sentiment across Asia [8].

要想理解特朗普为何只会"骂而不解雇"，必须先看清他所面对的几重困境。 特朗普对鲍威尔的反感由来已久，几乎成为公开的秘密。他不止一次骂鲍威尔是"笨蛋""白痴"，甚至在会议中嘲讽说"跟他讲话简直像跟一把椅子对话"。 尤其最近美联储总部斥资25亿美元进行大规模翻修的项目，被特朗普抓住不放，他直言这"或许足以成为开除鲍威尔的理由"。如果换作他公司里的高管， 恐怕早已被迫离职。 特朗普嘴上严厉指责美联储主席鲍威尔"做得很糟糕""没尽责"，却始终没有真正动手罢免他。这种看似矛盾的行为，表面上是特朗普对鲍威尔个人的不 满，实则背后牵扯着复杂的权力博弈、政治算计和经济现实之间的微妙平衡。 但美联储主席并非普通员工。美国法律对美联储的独立性设有严格保护机制，主席任期为四年，总统无权随意开除，除非有"合法且充分的理由"，比如违 法或渎职。 虽然美联储翻新大楼的开销巨大，但美联储方面给出的解释合情合理：清除石棉、处理污染土壤、提升安全标准，这些额外成本并非挥霍浪费。更重要的 是，美联储用的是自有资金，而非政府财政拨款。特朗普若想强行给翻修费扣上"正当理由"的帽子，法律上根本站不住脚。 就连共和党内部也有人提醒特朗普别轻易出手。众议 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump claims that the Federal Reserve is stifling the real estate market and asserts that a 1% interest rate level is appropriate [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights concerns regarding the impact of Federal Reserve policies on the real estate sector [1] - The assertion of a 1% interest rate level suggests a preference for lower borrowing costs to stimulate the housing market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official Daly believes that the current interest rate policy is in a good state [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Interest Rate Policy - Daly's statement indicates confidence in the effectiveness of the current interest rate policy [1]

美联储理事库格勒：鉴于失业率低和关税带来的建房价格压力，将利率政策利率保持稳定"一段时间"是 合适的。 ...

据知情人士向媒体透露，特朗普总统任内任职时间最长的经济顾问之一凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）， 目前是明年接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的最热门人选。 哈塞特现任白宫国家经济委员会主任，是特朗普任内任职时间最长的经济顾问之一，他和凯文·沃什 （Kevin Warsh）是美联储主席接班人的两位主要候选人。媒体称，财政部长贝森特也参与甄选，并提 供建议，如果其他人表现不理想，贝森特本人也有可能得到这份工作。此外，美联储理事Christopher Waller则被视为"黑马"候选人。 特朗普周三也对媒体表示，他正在考虑任命哈塞特接替鲍威尔。他还将鲍威尔继续留任一事归咎于前总 统拜登。鲍威尔最初是特朗普在其第一任期内提名的，而拜登随后又将其重新提名。 特朗普不断指责鲍威尔把利率维持得太高，并表示会选择一位支持降息的美联储主席，引发市场对美联 储将丧失独立性的担忧。哈塞特也附和了特朗普对美联储的批评。他在本月接受媒体采访时提到，美联 储是一个独立机构，但他说，美联储在去年总统大选前降息，然后又以关税引发的通胀风险为由最近保 持利率不变，因此值得受到总统批评。 华盛顿智库Beacon Policy Advisers ...

Group 1 - Silver prices rebounded on July 16, reaching a high of $38.04 per ounce, driven by heightened market concerns over U.S. President Trump's escalating tariff policies and increased risk aversion [1] - The U.S. June CPI data showed a 0.3% month-on-month increase, the largest in five months, with core CPI rising to 2.9% year-on-year, raising concerns about tariffs pushing inflation higher and potentially extending the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy [2] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. PPI data, which will serve as a leading indicator for inflation trends and directly impact the future movement of gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Silver is experiencing an upward trend, with the day's highest price at $38.04, and the market is looking at resistance levels between $39.22 and $39.32, while support levels are between $36.52 and $36.62 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) anticipates that the Bank of Canada will maintain its interest rates during the upcoming policy decision on July 30, following the June inflation report and strong employment data [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Inflation and Interest Rates - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report suggests that the Bank of Canada is likely to keep interest rates unchanged [1] - The strong employment data further supports the expectation of a stable interest rate policy [1] Trade Relations - By the fall, Bank of Canada officials may have a clearer understanding of the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] - The White House has set an August 1 deadline for Canada to negotiate an agreement to resolve the current trade disputes [1]

Market Overview - On July 15, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance at 3527 points and closing at 3505.00 points, down 0.42%[3][8] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,744.56 points, up 0.56%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.73%[8][9] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 16,353 billion yuan, above the three-year average daily trading volume[4][14] Sector Performance - Internet services, computer equipment, automotive, and communication equipment sectors performed well, while electricity, coal, mining, and photovoltaic equipment sectors lagged[4][8] - Over 70% of stocks in the two markets declined, with significant inflows into internet services, gaming, software development, and automotive sectors[8][10] Valuation and Economic Indicators - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.46 times and 39.17 times, respectively, indicating a mid-level valuation over the past three years[4][14] - June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%[4][14] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on stocks with strong mid-year performance and reasonable valuations[4][14] - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in internet services, software development, automotive, and communication equipment sectors[4][14] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances[5]