Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2025) has shown strong resilience in China's macroeconomic performance despite facing complex internal and external challenges, with nominal GDP expected to exceed 140 trillion yuan by the end of this period, an increase of over 35 trillion yuan compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3][4][5] - During the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP experienced an average annual real growth rate of 5.5% and a nominal growth rate of 6.9%, with the nominal GDP growth rate projected to be around 4.5% for the entire year of 2025 [3][5][6] - The economic growth achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" have laid a solid material foundation for modernizing the economy and have provided strong support for stabilizing employment and improving people's livelihoods [4][5] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030) is crucial for achieving the strategic vision of reaching a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, with a minimum nominal GDP average growth rate requirement of 5% [9][10][14] - The core guiding principle for economic growth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to achieve a per capita GDP of 27,000 USD by 2035, reflecting a shift from focusing on total GDP growth to per capita income improvement [10][12][14] - To meet the 2035 target, the nominal GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" should ideally be around 6%, with a minimum requirement of 5%, depending on factors such as actual GDP growth, price levels, and exchange rate fluctuations [14][16][18] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" should consider setting clear economic growth targets to address demand insufficiency and promote supply-demand balance, which is essential for achieving full employment and improving living standards [19][20] - A comprehensive target system around nominal GDP growth should be established, including a core target of 5% nominal GDP growth and 4.8% real GDP growth, alongside specific goals for consumption and investment growth [21][22][23] - Policies should focus on expanding domestic demand, particularly through boosting consumption and stabilizing infrastructure investment, to ensure necessary growth rates are met [23][25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The Xilin Gol League Development and Reform Commission is actively seeking public and expert opinions for the preparation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" to ensure comprehensive and effective planning [1] Group 1: Planning and Development - The director of the Xilin Gol League Development and Reform Commission, Zhang Xuejun, reported on the preparation status of the "14th Five-Year Plan" outline to the leaders and members of the league's People's Congress on September 19 [1] - Specific suggestions were made regarding modernization in pastoral areas, new urbanization, and industrial development during the meeting [1] - The commission emphasizes a scientific, democratic, and lawful decision-making process while incorporating diverse opinions from the public and various sectors [1] Group 2: Focus Areas - Recommendations from committee members covered agriculture and animal husbandry, education, public welfare, infrastructure, and industrial development [1] - The commission aims to integrate fresh experiences from the public into the planning process, focusing on the systematic, holistic, and coordinated nature of goals and policy measures [1] - The goal is to achieve high-quality completion of the planning work for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]

Group 1 - The military industry is expected to see a clearer development direction in the next three to five years as the "14th Five-Year Plan" progresses, with a new round of order cycles anticipated to strengthen the industry's growth attributes [1] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities predicts that with personnel adjustments in the military and gradual implementation of related reforms, orders are expected to stabilize and rebound in 2025 due to accumulated and new demand [1] - The military industry is transitioning into a new cycle characterized by structural growth, moving from "volume and price increase" to "volume increase and price stability," and from "comprehensive growth" to "structural growth" [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the National Aerospace Index, which has a high military attribute with 97.96% of the Shenwan first-level military industry, making it the highest military content index in the market [2] - The ETF has a significant focus on aerospace equipment, with a weight of 65.4%, surpassing other military indices, providing investors with an efficient way to capture core military aerospace opportunities [2]

谈及"十五五"规划与中国发展前景，张燕生指出，"十五五"时期是中国迈向基本实现社会主义现代化目 标的关键阶段。面对国内外环境的深刻变化，中国将坚持以高质量发展为主题，通过科技创新引领、扩 大内需支撑、深化改革开放增强动力，持续优化经济结构、提升产业链韧性和安全水平。他鼓励台商台 企关注国家宏观战略导向，主动融入"十五五"规划布局，尤其是在绿色低碳、数字经济、健康养老、乡 村振兴等领域寻找合作切入点和成长空间。 交流互动环节，多位台商就"十五五"规划下的发展机遇、产业合作模式等进行提问，张燕生结合实际案 例进行解答。与会台商代表普遍表示，通过本次大讲堂，不仅加深了对大陆政策和产业趋势的理解，也 获得了可操作性强的投资参考和合作方向。 台企联大讲堂作为全国台湾同胞投资企业联谊会开展的重要品牌活动，已成功举办四期。本次大讲堂紧 扣第28届京台科技论坛主题，围绕发展新质生产力进行政策解读与实践指导，充分体现了京台科技论坛 作为两岸科技合作与交流平台的桥梁作用。未来，全国台企联将继续通过系列活动，推动更多台商与地 方产业深度融合，共同把握新质生产力发展机遇。 9月18日，以"发展新质生产力与台商机遇"为主题的台企联大讲 ...

Report Overview - The report is a strategy weekly report dated September 22, 2025, covering multiple investment varieties including options, stocks, and various commodities [1]. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - For options, trend investors should focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors should go long on volatility when the index rises and short on it when the index falls [2]. - For stocks, after continuous adjustment, there may be a repair expectation in the short - term, and the intensity of capital inflow is crucial. The index needs to break through the high point of 3899 with volume to turn strong [3]. - For aluminum, although the price is under pressure at high levels, there may still be upward momentum during the interest - rate cut cycle, and a逢 - low long strategy is recommended [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the high iron - water output supports the price in the short - term, but the upward space is limited [3]. - For other commodities, different varieties have different trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions [3][4]. Summary by Category Options - In the stock index options market, the trading volume of IO, MO, and HO options has increased, and the September positions have reached new highs. The implied volatility first rises and then falls, and the exercise prices of the maximum positions of call and put options have changed. The September contract expiration settlement prices of IO and HO have reached new highs, and the exercise rates of IO and MO have different trends [2]. Stocks - A - share trading volume exceeded 2.3 trillion on September 19, with the ChiNext Index having 7 consecutive weekly positive lines. The US stocks reached new highs due to factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and good corporate earnings data. Energy metal and other sectors rose, while education and other sectors showed abnormal movements [3]. Commodities - **Aluminum**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. The supply of the aluminum market has increased slightly, and the demand has recovered. The inventory pressure has been relieved, and the price may still have upward momentum [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily output of raw coal and clean coal has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. The market is concerned about production cuts due to the Inner Mongolia over - production inspection. The trading atmosphere has improved, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be firm in the short - term, but the upward space is limited [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output of the urea industry has increased, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is accumulating, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The rebar inventory has decreased, and the supply - demand structure has improved. The hot - rolled coil inventory has increased slightly. The steel price is expected to be firm in the short - term and fluctuate upward [4]. - **Eggs**: The spot egg price has reached the peak and then declined. The supply pressure is increasing, and the futures price may continue to be weak [4]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs has continued to decline, hitting a new low this year. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price of the main 11 - contract may continue to decline [4].

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve with the return of funds after the National Day holiday and rising policy expectations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" from the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session [1][3] - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.30% and the CSI 300 Index down 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index rose by 1.14% and 2.34% respectively [1] - The trading volume increased, with an average daily turnover of approximately 2.52 trillion yuan, peaking at 3.17 trillion yuan on Thursday before dropping to 2.35 trillion yuan on Friday [1] Group 2 - The convertible bond market is experiencing a downward adjustment, with the China Convertible Bond Index down 1.55% and the convertible bond equal-weight index down 1.29% [2] - The median price of convertible bonds fell from 132.30 yuan to 129.51 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate shrank to 23.77% [2] - The market is expected to remain in a volatile state for the remainder of September, with potential risk aversion as the National Day holiday approaches [2] Group 3 - In October, the convertible bond market is anticipated to receive support and repair opportunities, with a focus on stocks with solid fundamentals and compressed conversion premiums, particularly in technology growth and cyclical sectors [3] - The market's overall tight supply-demand balance is likely to continue supporting convertible bond valuations [3]

Group 1 - A500ETF Jia Shi has a recent trading turnover of 0.44% with a transaction volume of 54.5 million yuan, and an average daily transaction of 2.29 billion yuan over the past year [2] - The latest scale of A500ETF Jia Shi reached 11.56 billion yuan, with a net value increase of 16.04% over the past six months [2] - Since its inception, A500ETF Jia Shi has achieved a maximum monthly return of 11.71%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being four months and a maximum increase of 22.93% [2] Group 2 - CITIC Construction Investment believes that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the focus will shift to "Fifteen Five" initiatives, which include anti-involution, service consumption, boosting domestic demand, and industrial upgrades [3] - The market sentiment remains high without significant signs of topping or retreating, although individual stocks and sectors exhibit considerable volatility [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 index include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, China Ping An, and others, collectively accounting for 19.11% of the index [3] Group 3 - The top ten stocks by weight in the CSI A500 index show varied performance, with Kweichow Moutai declining by 0.97% and CATL increasing by 0.04% [5] - Investors without stock accounts can access the A500ETF Jia Shi linked fund (022454) to invest in the top 500 A-shares [5]

Market Performance - Global indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading with a gain of 5.09% [1] - The A-share market experienced a downward trend, particularly in the banking and non-bank financial sectors, which saw declines of 4.21% and 3.66% respectively [2][3] - The overall equity market in China faced volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.30% [2] Industry Performance - The coal industry led the weekly gains with a rise of 3.5%, followed closely by electric power equipment at 3.1% and electronics at 3.0% [3] - Conversely, the banking sector faced significant losses, declining by 4.2%, while non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals also saw declines of 3.7% and 4.0% respectively [3] - Year-to-date performance highlights include the electronics sector up 44.3% and electric power equipment up 32.0% [3] Investment Strategies - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to create investment opportunities, with significant trading activity anticipated around key announcements [5][6] - Historical data suggests that the market tends to react positively during the trading periods surrounding the release of the "Five-Year Plan" documents, with an average increase of 7.02% [6] Sector Highlights - The robotics sector is gaining traction, driven by expectations of recovering T-chain orders and recent positive developments from key industry players [4] - The banking sector has been under pressure due to a shift in market sentiment and capital flow towards higher-risk sectors, leading to a notable decline in stock prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a critical period for China's financial cycle and economic transformation, shifting from reliance on real estate and traditional infrastructure to a new economic development model focused on innovation, green development, coordination, openness, and sharing [2][4]. Economic Transformation - The economic development model is transitioning to rely more on new economies, with a notable decline in housing prices and a slowdown in credit growth, leading to increased downward pressure on economic growth [2][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen most major indicators completed ahead of schedule, including GDP growth and labor productivity [6][9]. Innovation and Technology - R&D investment has significantly increased, with total R&D expenditure reaching 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, up 1.2 trillion yuan from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [10]. - The complexity of China's economy has risen, with advancements in key technologies such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [12][21]. Green Development - China has made significant strides in green development, with forest coverage exceeding 25% and a notable reduction in PM2.5 levels [21][22]. - The energy structure is rapidly transforming, with non-fossil energy consumption expected to reach around 20% by 2025 [22]. Regional and Urban-Rural Coordination - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes balanced development between urban and rural areas, with significant improvements in agricultural infrastructure and rural self-development capabilities [27][28]. - Urbanization rates have increased, with the urbanization rate reaching 67% by 2024, ahead of the planned target [28][45]. High-Level Opening Up - China's exports showed resilience, with total exports reaching 3.58 trillion USD in 2024, an increase of nearly 1 trillion USD from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [30][34]. - The negative list for foreign investment has been continuously reduced, with all restrictions in the manufacturing sector eliminated [38][40]. Shared Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes people's well-being, with a focus on reducing income and public service disparities [43][44]. - The average disposable income per capita increased from 32,200 yuan in 2020 to 41,300 yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 5.8% [44][46].

Group 1: Government Policies and Regulations - The State Council meeting emphasized the implementation of domestic product standards in government procurement as a significant measure to improve the procurement system and ensure fair competition for all business entities [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced the optimization of price difference control "anchor points" for the 11th batch of centralized procurement, moving away from simply selecting the lowest bid to ensure fair pricing [1] Group 2: Industry Development Plans - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is preparing the "14th Five-Year" new battery industry development plan to prevent low-level repeated construction and strengthen industrial planning [2] - The report from China Galaxy Securities highlights four investment opportunities in the construction industry during the "14th Five-Year" period, focusing on urban renewal and infrastructure demand driven by global industrial transfer [8] Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported stable net inflows in goods trade and overall net foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds, indicating a balanced foreign exchange market [3] - Zhongyuan Securities noted that domestic manufacturers are making significant advancements in computing power chips, with companies like Alibaba and Huawei leading the market, suggesting a positive outlook for China's AI and computing industry [9]