张尧浠：回落调整空间有限、金银仍是逢低看涨为主 上交易日周二(12月30日)：国际黄金先涨后回撤倒垂收平，其形态上，相对于回落低位则是止跌看涨信号，故此，操作上，可继续保持低多看涨为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4334.30美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4323.49美元，之后则保持回升反弹，一路延续到美盘初录得日内高点4404.18美元， 就此遇阻回落，并转一路回撤，最终收于4338.51美元，日振幅80.69美元，收涨4.21美元，涨幅0.097%。 影响上，日内受到支撑买盘，地缘局势升级，以及贵金属在经历踩踏式抛售后开始逢低入场收复失地，而持续反弹录得日内高点，但由于均线阻力压制， 再加上美盘公布数据集体利空，而再度打压金价持续回落，最终倒垂收线。 展望今日周三(12月31日)：国际黄金开盘继续受到支撑买盘，先行偏强运行，另外，凌晨美联储会议纪要：官员分歧严重，但多数支持进一步降息，也对 金价产生一定支撑。但美元指数昨日反弹收涨，今日走势也偏强反弹，则会限制金价多头。 日内将可关注美国至12月27日当周初请失业金人数(万人)，市场预期将利好金价，故此，综合来看，日内走势偏向震荡或者反弹的概率较大，操作 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/30 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2025/12/23 | 58.38 | 62.38 | 62.11 | - | 0.51 | -4.00 | 0.64 | 174.32 | 10.83 | 219.06 | 29.63 | | 2025/12/24 | 58.35 | 62.24 | 62.07 | - | 0.44 | -3.89 | 0.82 | 174.71 | 11.14 | 215.76 | 28.38 | | 2025/12/25 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ...

Group 1 - London gold is currently trading above $4,356.44, with a latest price of $4,365.55 per ounce, down 0.78%, having reached a high of $4,382.58 and a low of $4,322.53, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1][1] - The geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe are heightened due to Russia's accusations against Ukraine regarding an alleged assassination attempt on President Vladimir Putin, which has increased market anxiety and expectations of ongoing instability in the region [1] - U.S. President Trump expressed expectations that the next Federal Reserve Chair will maintain low interest rates, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve among investors and policymakers [2] Group 2 - The latest gold market analysis indicates that gold prices are experiencing a slight upward movement, crossing the 1-hour MA20 moving average, but without significant volume expansion, suggesting a phase of digesting previous gains [3] - Technical indicators such as MACD and KDJ are showing bullish signals, indicating a potential short-term recovery, although the daily bearish trend remains unchanged with significant resistance levels at $4,380 and $4,408 [3] - The current downward movement in gold prices appears to be forming a five-wave structure, with the ongoing mild rebound likely representing the fourth wave, potentially concluding near the $4,380 mark [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices fluctuated slightly, with the main contract EC2602 closing down 2.08% and the far - month contracts down between -1% and -1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rebounded by 153.44 points from last week, a 9.7% increase. On December 26, SCFI continued to rise, with a 6.7% increase to 1656.32 points. The freight rate of the European line of SCFI increased by 10.2% to 1690 US dollars/TEU, driving up the futures prices. The manufacturing PMI in China in November showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 47.9, indicating a pre - Christmas recovery in terminal transportation demand. Maersk announced an increase in the PSS for European lines from January 6, 2026. The expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea has improved, and the euro - zone economy continues to pick up. Overall, the improvement in the trade - war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are conducive to the recovery of futures prices, while the short - term impact of the geopolitical situation on freight rates is weakened. The freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1795.100, down 38.2; EC secondary main contract closing price: down 4.40. The spread of EC2602 - EC2604 is 634.90, down 18.10; the spread of EC2602 - EC2606 is 425.10, down 23.80. The EC contract basis is - 52.46, up 181.24. The main contract position of EC is 27855 hands, down 2582 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1742.64, up 153.44; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1301.41, up 339.31. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1656.32, up 103.40. Container ship capacity: up 0.21 (in ten thousand TEUs). CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1146.67, up 21.94; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1519.06, up 45.16. Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily): 1877.00, up 12.00; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1267.00, down 1.00. The average charter price of Panama - type ships is up 0.00; the average charter price of Cape - type ships is 22415.00, up 295.00 [1] Industry News - China will implement import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation tax rates on 935 commodities from January 1, 2026, and the total number of tariff items will increase to 8972. US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and both sides said the talks "made great progress". The minutes of the Bank of Japan's December policy meeting showed that many members believed that the real interest rate in Japan was still at a very low level, implying a continued interest - rate hike [1] Key Events to Watch - China's official manufacturing PMI for December on December 31 at 09:30; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 (in ten thousand) on December 31 at 21:30 [1]

Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The short - term fundamentals of the crude oil market are neutral, and the market continues to trade based on geopolitical situations. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. As supply remains in excess, short - selling positions can be entered at an appropriate time [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was $58.35, closing price was $56.93, with a high of $58.88, a low of $56.65, a decline of 2.43%, and a trading volume of 14.83 million lots. Brent's opening price was $61.9, closing price was $60.33, with a high of $62.26, a low of $60.16, a decline of 2.38%, and a trading volume of 16.06 million lots. SC's opening price was 441.5 yuan/barrel, closing price was 434.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 441.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 431.9 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.94%, and a trading volume of 7.32 million lots [6]. - **News**: US - Ukraine leaders met. Trump said significant progress was made in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, covering nearly 95% of key issues, and the situation was close to reaching an agreement. The key difference lies in the territorial issue. The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, directly affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. The supply of about 150,000 barrels per day to the US is expected to be unaffected [6]. - **Data**: Weekly data shows that crude oil inventories continued to decline, refinery crude oil input reached the highest level in the same period in 5 years, while refined oil performance was relatively weak, with continuous inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel, which is not conducive to maintaining high - level refinery operations. In the medium term, oversupply will continue to suppress oil prices, and there is a possibility of a new low [6]. 2. Industry News - Iranian President Pezeshkian warned the US and Israel not to launch new military attacks, or Iran will respond firmly. Trump said that the US is getting closer to reaching a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and there are one or two difficult issues in the negotiation. Ukraine may need a referendum or parliamentary approval for relevant plans [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][13][21][23]

021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 30 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（12月29日）大幅收跌，开盘价4538.33美元/盎司，最高价4550.19美元/盎司，最低价4300.58美 元/盎司，收盘价4325.22美元/盎司。 消息面： 全美不动产协会(NAR)周一表示，随着住房可负担性改善吸引买家，11月美国成屋签约销售意外飙升至近三年 来最高水平。NAR称，11月成屋签约销售环比增长3.3%，此前10月的数据也被上修至增长2.4%。接受机构调 查的经济学家此前预计该指标仅上升1.0%。成屋签约销售的同比增长为2.6%，升至自2023年2月以来的最高水 平。 地缘局势： 据俄新社，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫表示，西方必须接受乌克兰新的领土现实。西方所有人都明白，俄罗斯在乌克 兰掌握着战略主动权。很明显，随着乌克兰总统泽连斯基的任期已满，乌克兰必须举行选举，而美国支持这一 观点。乌克兰问题的解决，关键在于停止北约在乌克兰的驻军，并确保该国保持中立和不结盟地位。 俄外长：乌克兰试图袭击普京官邸，俄将进行报复但不打算退出和平谈判。 克里姆林宫：目前未讨论普京与泽连斯基通话的事宜。乌克兰应从其部队控制的顿巴斯地区撤出军队。预计普 京与特朗普的通话很快就会举行。 今日重 ...

影响上，受地缘局势以及市场传言特朗普可能在未来一周提名新的美联储主席，并预期继任者可能更倾 向于降息，再加上市场仍保持对美联储明年将降息的押注。基本面上，美债等替代类资产的吸引力持续 下降，整体市场信心尚未实现全面修复。以及突破阻力后的看涨买盘进入，白银市场的带动等等，共同 助力金价走强。 白银也更是当周收涨17.77%，年涨超170%，彻底疯狂！短期内贵金属将继续强势。 具体走势上，金价自周初微幅高开于4340.19美元/盎司，便先行收复缺口录得当周低点4337.62美元，随 即则反弹拉升，突破10月份高点，刷新新的历史高点，至此延续走强，保持上行模式，一直到周五时段 触及4549.60美元当周高点，最终有所回撤，收于4532.26美元，周振幅211.98美元，收涨192.07美元，涨 幅4.42%。 黄金市场上周：国际黄金强势反弹拉升，再度刷新历史高点，并持稳收阳，增强了多头动力的同时，还 暗示后市将有继续走强的预期和空间。 展望本周周一(12月29日)：国际黄金开盘短暂走强后转弱回落走低，受上周的看涨动力延续性推动，但 由于地缘局势的缓和而遇阻回撤；白银则高开1.2美金后强势走强一度触及83.88美元也 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-29原油早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2602： 1.基本面：特朗普和泽连斯基在联合新闻发布会上表示，美-乌安全协议已接近达成一致，但特朗普表 示，仍有一些涉及领土的"棘手问题"必须解决；位知情克里姆林宫的人士透露，俄方将要求对美乌拟 定的这份和平方案作出关键性修改，其中包括对乌克兰军方施加更多限制条款；伊拉克中央政府、库 尔德自治区政府及国际石油公司已同意将石油出口协议延长至明年3月31日；中性 2.基差：12月26日，阿曼原油现货价为62.75美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为61.55美元/桶，基差 11.7元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国 ...

影响上，受地缘局势以及市场传言特朗普可能在未来一周提名新的美联储主席，并预期继任者可能更倾向于降息，再加上市场仍保持对美联储明年将降息 的押注。基本面上，美债等替代类资产的吸引力持续下降，整体市场信心尚未实现全面修复。以及突破阻力后的看涨买盘进入，白银市场的带动等等，共 同助力金价走强。 张尧浠：黄金白银彻底疯狂、年尾预有调整仍是多头机会 黄金市场上周：国际黄金强势反弹拉升，再度刷新历史高点，并持稳收阳，增强了多头动力的同时，还暗示后市将有继续走强的预期和空间。 白银也更是当周收涨17.77%，年涨超170%，彻底疯狂！短期内贵金属将继续强势。 具体走势上，金价自周初微幅高开于4340.19美元/盎司，便先行收复缺口录得当周低点4337.62美元，随即则反弹拉升，突破10月份高点，刷新新的历史高 点，至此延续走强，保持上行模式，一直到周五时段触及4549.60美元当周高点，最终有所回撤，收于4532.26美元，周振幅211.98美元，收涨192.07美元， 涨幅4.42%。 展望本周周一(12月29日)：国际黄金开盘短暂走强后转弱回落走低，受上周的看涨动力延续性推动，但由于地缘局势的缓和而遇阻回撤；白银则高开 ...