Core Insights - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange signifies the emergence of new financial derivatives in China and serves as a beneficial supplement to the global platinum and palladium investment market [2][6] - The introduction of these contracts is expected to enhance China's influence in platinum group metal pricing and enrich the pricing system for these metals [2][8] Industry Implications - The listing addresses the lack of authoritative hedging channels in the domestic market, allowing companies to better manage price volatility risks associated with platinum and palladium [3][4] - The innovative inclusion of sponge form in the delivery range of contracts aligns with the actual usage habits of end-users, thereby enhancing the service of futures to the real economy [4][5] Market Dynamics - China is the largest consumer of platinum and palladium, accounting for over 30% of global demand, while domestic production is limited, leading to a heavy reliance on imports [5][8] - The global supply of platinum and palladium is primarily concentrated in South Africa and Russia, which together account for over 80% of platinum and 70% of palladium supply [5][6] Price Trends - Platinum prices have surged significantly in 2023, with New York Mercantile Exchange futures up approximately 80% and Shanghai Gold Exchange spot prices up over 92% year-to-date [7] - Future price forecasts suggest an upward trend, with expected annual increases of 10% to 15% due to persistent supply shortages and robust industrial demand [7][8] Future Outlook - The global platinum market is projected to see a narrowing supply gap by 2025, with expectations of a slight surplus by 2026, influenced by improved recovery supply and a decrease in demand primarily from the investment sector [8] - The listing of futures and options is anticipated to bolster the development of the precious metals industry in the Pearl River Delta region and nationwide [8]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to enhance risk management for the industry, improve market efficiency, and strengthen China's influence in the global platinum group metals market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 27, platinum and palladium futures were officially listed, with initial trading showing significant price increases of over 11%, before settling at 430.30 CNY/gram for platinum and 370.60 CNY/gram for palladium, representing gains of 6.25% and 1.53% respectively [2]. - The total trading volume for platinum futures reached 66,700 contracts with a turnover of 29.231 billion CNY, while palladium futures saw 34,200 contracts traded, totaling 13.049 billion CNY [2]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The introduction of platinum and palladium futures is seen as beneficial for upstream and downstream enterprises in the platinum group metals industry, aiding in risk management and stabilizing operations amid market volatility [3][4]. - The application of platinum and palladium in green development sectors is significant, with approximately 60% and 80% of their usage in automotive emissions control and renewable energy, respectively [3]. Group 3: Risk Management Tools - The futures and options products provide flexible and effective risk management tools for industry players, allowing them to hedge against price volatility and stabilize costs or profits [4][5]. - The launch is expected to attract interest from leading enterprises in the industry, with a gradual increase in participation from smaller companies and institutional investors as market awareness grows [4][5]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The successful listing of these futures is anticipated to improve liquidity in the physical platinum and palladium markets, reduce trading discrepancies, and establish a pricing benchmark in RMB [6][8]. - The futures market is expected to enhance the operational efficiency of small and medium-sized enterprises, promoting a more rational resource allocation and supporting the development of a professional and scalable industry [8].

Core Viewpoint - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to bring significant changes to the industry chain and create new opportunities for enterprises [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Platinum and palladium are crucial raw materials for green industries, particularly in automotive exhaust treatment, with approximately 60% of platinum and nearly 80% of palladium used in catalytic converters in China [3]. - The global supply of platinum and palladium is highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia, while China is the largest consumer, leading to a high dependency on imports [4]. - Price volatility of platinum and palladium has been significant due to geopolitical, climatic, and transportation factors, with expected international market prices fluctuating between $900 and $1,100 per ounce in 2024 [4]. Group 2: Risk Management and Opportunities - The introduction of futures and options is seen as a necessary "pressure stabilizer" for the industry, allowing enterprises to lock in procurement costs and sales prices, thereby smoothing the impact of price fluctuations on business cycles [4]. - Companies can utilize futures and options for hedging operations, effectively locking in future product sales prices or raw material procurement costs, which stabilizes operations and profits [4]. - The futures market will provide a pricing reference for spot transactions, reducing price discrepancies between trading parties and enhancing transaction efficiency [4]. Group 3: Impact on Pricing Power - The establishment of domestic derivatives contracts will create an authoritative price benchmark denominated in RMB, enhancing market transparency and giving enterprises greater bargaining power in international trade [5]. - With RMB-denominated futures prices, domestic companies can use these prices as a reference for pricing in international trade, thereby increasing China's pricing power in the global platinum group metals market [6]. - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options is expected to attract diverse participants, including industrial capital and individual investors, expanding the coverage of the futures market [6].

Core Insights - The launch of platinum and palladium futures on November 27 at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange marks a significant breakthrough in China's precious metals derivatives system, providing domestic enterprises with independent risk management tools and reducing reliance on foreign futures instruments [1][2] - The introduction of these futures is expected to help establish a more comprehensive and authoritative domestic pricing system for platinum and palladium [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - Platinum and palladium are critical raw materials for the automotive, refining, and new energy industries, with their price fluctuations significantly affecting production costs for companies in these sectors [2] - Prior to the domestic futures launch, companies relied on NYMEX platinum and palladium futures for cross-border revenue swap transactions, indicating a need for more localized risk management solutions [2] Group 2: Company Initiatives - Nanhua Futures and its risk management subsidiary, Nanhua Capital, have actively responded to client needs, achieving the first off-exchange options transaction on the listing day of platinum futures [1] - The collaboration with a domestic high-tech enterprise specializing in advanced coating and functional materials demonstrates the effective use of financial derivatives to enhance product price competitiveness and operational efficiency [2] - Nanhua Futures and Nanhua Capital are committed to serving the real economy by providing comprehensive risk management services across the entire platinum and palladium industry chain, aiming to foster new productive forces in China's modernization efforts [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Agricultural Group Co., Ltd. plans to conduct hedging activities in 2026 to mitigate foreign exchange and commodity price volatility risks, with a maximum foreign exchange hedging limit of $440 million and a maximum margin for commodity futures of 761 million RMB [1][2] Business Overview: Focus on Risk Hedging to Lock in Operating Costs - The primary objective of the hedging activities is to avoid market risks in import-export operations and bulk commodity sales by stabilizing exchange rates and commodity prices [2] - The hedging business will cover two main areas: foreign exchange and commodity futures, with specific trading instruments closely related to the company's core operations [2] - The maximum trading limit for foreign exchange hedging is set at $440 million, while the margin for commodity futures and derivatives is capped at 761 million RMB, with funds sourced from the company's own capital [2] Risk Control: Multi-Dimensional System to Prevent Operational and Market Risks - The company emphasizes that the hedging activities are centered on "risk hedging," prohibiting speculative trading [3] - A specialized risk control system has been established to address potential risks associated with both foreign exchange and commodity futures hedging [4] Subsequent Arrangements: Authorization Mechanism to Ensure Efficiency - Following the approval of the hedging proposal, the company will seek authorization from the shareholders' meeting for the board of directors to further delegate authority to management for executing specific transactions within the approved limits [4] - The company anticipates that the hedging activities will help stabilize operational fluctuations and provide a safeguard for long-term sustainable development [4]

Core Insights - The gold jewelry market in China is experiencing a significant decline in demand, with a reported consumption of 278 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 25% year-on-year decrease [1] - Despite high international gold prices, retail companies in the gold jewelry sector are facing structural challenges, including a "store closure wave" and pressure on inventory management and profitability [1][4] - The pricing mechanism in the gold jewelry supply chain exposes retailers to risks due to price fluctuations, leading to a dual challenge of high prices reducing operational efficiency and suppressing consumer demand [2] Industry Performance - Major gold jewelry retailers, such as Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook, have reported significant store closures, with Chow Tai Fook closing 296 stores and Chow Sang Sang reducing 333 stores in the first nine months of the year [1] - The retail sector is under pressure from high costs and low consumer demand, impacting profitability and operational strategies [1][4] Risk Management Strategies - A "laddered" risk management solution has been designed for gold jewelry retailers, incorporating put option protection strategies and zero-cost collar strategies to mitigate price fluctuation risks [2][3] - The put option strategy offers a safety net for retailers against price declines while allowing them to benefit from price increases, although it comes with high premium costs [2][3] - The zero-cost collar strategy provides downside protection while capping upside potential, allowing retailers to manage their financial exposure effectively without initial costs [3] Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to remain in a long-term bullish trend due to factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and production cost support [2] - The industry is encouraged to explore market-based compensation mechanisms and innovative pricing models to adapt to the current economic environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to engage in commodity futures and foreign exchange hedging activities in 2026 to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations and significant exchange rate volatility on its operational costs and financial stability [1] Group 1 - The company aims to reduce the impact of raw material price volatility on its production and operational costs [1] - The company seeks to prevent adverse effects from significant exchange rate fluctuations on its operational results [1] - The initiative is intended to enhance the company's financial stability [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the bottom but driven by inventory at the top. It is expected that the finished steel products will fluctuate within a range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2900 - 3200, and that of hot-rolled coils between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel products and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the potential negative feedback risk caused by the decline in the profitability rate of steel enterprises [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The 01 contract monthly price range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.25% and a volatility percentile of 14.7%. For hot-rolled coils, it is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 9.34% and a volatility percentile of 3.80% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling steel prices, to prevent inventory - related losses, enterprises can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. For RB2601 and HC2601, the selling ratio is 30%, with recommended entry intervals of 3200 - 3250 and 3350 - 3400 respectively. Selling call options can reduce capital costs, and if steel prices rise, the spot selling price can be locked. For RB2601C3400, the selling ratio is 20%, with a recommended entry interval of 50 - 55 [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to orders, they can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. For RB2601 and HC2601, the buying ratio is 30%, with recommended entry intervals of 2950 - 3000 and 3100 - 3150 respectively. Selling put options can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs, and if rebar prices fall, the spot purchase price can be locked. For RB2601P2900, the selling ratio is 20%, with a recommended entry interval of 35 - 45 [3]. 3.3 Market Review - Today, the prices of finished steel products continued to rise slightly, showing a pattern of rising with decreasing positions. Recently, the shortage of medium - grade iron ore resources has led to a tight supply of deliverable resources, making iron ore relatively strong and driving up the prices of finished steel products. However, the upward movement of iron ore is constrained by the decline in hot metal production and high port inventories, which may affect the price increase of finished steel products [3]. 3.4 Core Logic - This week, both the supply and demand of steel increased, and the inventory continued to be slowly destocked. The supply - demand balance is gradually improving. Hot - rolled coils have started to be slowly destocked, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, with over - seasonal inventory accumulation. The plate end is still in a situation of high inventory and high production, and destocking may need to rely on production cuts. Plate exports remain high, supporting good export demand, but domestic demand is gradually weakening month - on - month. Hot metal production decreased month - on - month this week, and it is expected to continue the slow production - cut trend according to seasonal patterns and profit decline. This week, the profitability rate of steel enterprises continued to decline to 37.66%, and the risk of negative feedback is gradually increasing. In terms of cost, the arrival volume of iron ore last week decreased significantly month - on - month, and the port inventory accumulation slowed down and turned to destocking. However, with the recovery of iron ore shipments to a high level and the decline in hot metal production last week, it is expected that the port inventory of iron ore may turn back to the accumulation trend. Recently, the shortage of medium - grade iron ore resources has led to a tight supply of deliverable resources, making iron ore relatively strong, but it is constrained by hot metal production cuts and high port inventories at the top and supported by the expectation of winter storage replenishment at the bottom, resulting in a range - bound price. The previous negative factors for rebar are gradually being realized and cleared, but there is no obvious increase in downstream demand. Although blast furnace profits are in the red, profits are significantly improving during the slow destocking of steel, and the bottom support for steel prices is strong [4][5]. 3.5 Interpretation of Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.5.1 Bullish Factors - The inventory of iron ore ports continued to accumulate but at a slower pace, and it turned to destocking last week. The high valuation of iron ore has recently declined, and it is supported by the expectation of winter storage replenishment. The supply - demand balance of finished steel products is gradually improving. The decline in coking coal prices has benefited finished steel products, and the profits of finished steel products are slowly recovering [7]. 3.5.2 Bearish Factors - The basis of hot - rolled coils is gradually weakening. The steel market fails to meet expectations during the peak season, the profitability rate of steel mills has declined significantly, and the pressure of negative feedback is gradually increasing. The arrival volume of iron ore has returned to a high level, and the port inventory of iron ore may turn back to the accumulation trend. The plate end is still in a situation of high inventory and high production, with production at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, and there is no driving force on the consumption side. The inventory has accumulated over - seasonally and is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years [7]. 3.6 Price Data 3.6.1 Futures Prices - On November 25, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3106, up 17 from the previous day and 16 from the previous week; the closing price of the rebar 05 contract was 3125, up 7 from the previous day and down 14 from the previous week; the closing price of the rebar 10 contract was 3172, up 5 from the previous day and down 8 from the previous week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3309, up 14 from the previous day and 23 from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 05 contract was 3299, up 7 from the previous day and 4 from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 10 contract was 3307, up 7 from the previous day and down 7 from the previous week [8]. 3.6.2 Spot Prices - On November 25, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3296, up 13 from the previous day and 17 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3250, up 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Beijing was 3230, unchanged from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Hangzhou was 3290, up 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3220, up 10 from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3300, up 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3330, up 20 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Shenyang was 3220, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [8]. 3.6.3 Overseas Data of Hot - Rolled Coils - On November 25, 2025, the FOB export price of hot - rolled coils in China was 450, up 5 from November 18; the FOB export price in Japan was 490, down 5; the FOB export price in India was 485, down 5; the FOB export price in Turkey was 520, down 20; the FOB export price in the CIS was 455, down 15. The CFR import price of hot - rolled coils in Southeast Asia was 462, up 4; the CFR import price in the Middle East was 490, down 5; the CFR import price in the EU was 580, down 5; the CFR import price in India was 490, down 5 [9]. 3.6.4 Month - to - Month Spreads - On November 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 month - to - month spread of rebar was - 19, up 10 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week; the 05 - 10 month - to - month spread was - 47, up 2 from the previous day and down 6 from the previous week; the 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was 66, down 12 from the previous day and 24 from the previous week. The 01 - 05 month - to - month spread of hot - rolled coils was 10, up 19 from the previous day and 19 from the previous week; the 05 - 10 month - to - month spread was - 8, up 11 from the previous day and 11 from the previous week; the 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was - 2, down 7 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week [9]. 3.6.5 Rebar - Coil Spreads - On November 25, 2025, the 01 rebar - coil spread was 203, down 3 from the previous day and 7 from the previous week; the 05 rebar - coil spread was 174, unchanged from the previous day and up 18 from the previous week; the 10 rebar - coil spread was 135, up 2 from the previous day and 1 from the previous week. The spot rebar - coil spread in Shanghai was 50, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the spot rebar - coil spread in Beijing was 120, up 20 from the previous day and the previous week; the spot rebar - coil spread in Shenyang was 30, down 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain a long - position mindset, monitor price movements at previous high levels (take profit if there is a sharp rally), and set stop - profit points. For options, hold out - of - the - money short put options with a light position and manage risks (rolling operations are possible). For calendar spreads, stay on the sidelines [4]. - Supply: Yichun's lithium mines are less likely to stop production. The Zhenkouli - Jianxiawo mine in Jiangxi is unlikely to resume production this year, eliminating supply concerns. Overall, supply is expected to increase steadily as expected. Also, new warehouse receipts registration volume may be a concern due to high demand and large open interest [5]. - Demand: Energy storage cell production is full, with independent energy storage contributing significant growth. New energy vehicles are in the peak production and sales season, and demand is expected to remain high in Q4 2025. Lithium prices are supported by strong demand, but supply growth may increase price volatility [5]. - Hedging: Lithium salt producers should conduct low - proportion short hedging, and downstream enterprises can conduct medium - proportion long hedging based on orders to lock in procurement costs [5]. - Basis: Hold cash - and - carry arbitrage portfolios with a light position and manage risks [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of November 13, battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3950 yuan week - on - week to 84350 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3800 yuan to 82000 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 500 yuan to 76180 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2350 yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 8170 yuan/ton [9]. - As of November 13, the closing price of the lithium carbonate 2601 contract increased by 5540 yuan (+6.73%) week - on - week to 87840 yuan/ton, and the weighted open interest increased by 128,300 lots to 1,037,300 lots [9]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Lithium Ore Production and Import - In October 2025, the output of Chinese sample lithium spodumene was 7350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 550 tons (+8%); the total output of Chinese lithium mica was 12,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450 tons (-3%) [12]. - In September 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports reached 711,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%, equivalent to about 67,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Imports from Australia were 347,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 64.1%; imports from Nigeria were about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%; imports from Zimbabwe were 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% [12]. - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total shipment of Mysteel's Australian lithium concentrate to China was 76,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27,000 tons. The weekly average shipment to China was 68,000 tons, and the global shipment that week was 76,000 tons [12]. 2.2 Lithium Ore Price and Inventory - As of November 13, the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 125 dollars week - on - week to 1050 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) increased by 195 yuan to 2280 yuan/ton. As of November 7, the available inventory of lithium ore was 100,000 tons (82,000 tons in the previous period, increasing for three consecutive weeks) [15]. - As of November 13, the cash cost of producing lithium carbonate from imported lithium spodumene was 84,065 yuan/ton, with a production loss of 907 yuan/ton; the cash cost of producing lithium carbonate from imported lithium mica was 87,365 yuan/ton, and the loss from imported mica production was 6361 yuan/ton. The loss from producing lithium carbonate from imported raw materials deepened [15]. 2.3 Lithium Mine Project Progress - On November 6, 2025, the Natural Resources Department of Jiangxi Province released the "Public Notice of the Assessment Report on the Mining Right Transfer Income of the Zhenkouli - Jianxiawo Mine (Utilized but Unpaid Resources) in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province". It is estimated that the probability of resuming production this year is low, and concerns about its resumption are weakened in the short term [15]. 2.4 Lithium Carbonate Production - According to SMM statistics, the weekly output of lithium carbonate in the week of November 13 was 21,545 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11 tons. Among them, the output from spodumene decreased by 220 tons to 12,904 tons (accounting for 60%), the output from mica decreased by 70 tons to 2941 tons (accounting for 14%), the output from salt lakes increased by 236 tons to 3555 tons (accounting for 17%), and the output from recycled materials increased by 65 tons to 2145 tons (accounting for 10%) [21]. - In October 2025, the monthly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 55%. The cumulative output from January to October was 780,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39%. It is expected that the output of domestic lithium carbonate in November can still maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [21]. 2.5 Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide Import and Export - According to Chilean customs data, in October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56%; the amount exported to China was 16,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% and a month - on - month increase of 46%. From January to October 2025, Chile exported a total of 189,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%, and the amount exported to China was 137,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [27]. - According to customs data, in September 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3%, mainly affected by previous concentrated arrivals and domestic inventory digestion rhythms. Among them, 10,800 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 55.2%, and 6948 tons were imported from Argentina, accounting for 35.5% [27]. - According to SMM statistics, in October 2025, the output of lithium hydroxide was 29,220 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Among them, the smelting output was 24,950 tons, and the causticizing output was 4270 tons. It is expected that the overall output of lithium hydroxide in November will have a slight upward trend, with a roughly flat year - on - year performance [28]. - According to customs data, China's lithium hydroxide imports in September 2025 were 1473 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.3%, mainly due to the moderate recovery of high - nickel ternary material demand; exports were 6526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [28]. 3. Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 New Energy Vehicle Market - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20%, and a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and 6.9% respectively. From January to October, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively [33]. - In 2025, from January to October, the sales of new energy heavy - duty trucks in China exceeded 119,600, a year - on - year increase of 198%. In September 2025, 392,000 new energy vehicles were sold in Europe, a year - on - year increase of 33% and a month - on - month increase of 62%, with a market penetration rate of 31.7% [33]. - In October 2025, new energy vehicle exports were 256,000, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 100%. From January to October, the cumulative exports were 1.983 million, a year - on - year increase of 87.4% [33]. - As of November 13, 17 mainstream automobile brands have launched purchase tax subsidy plans, which will ease the cliff - like decline in vehicle sales across the year to some extent [33]. 3.2 Energy Storage Market - Domestic energy storage cell supply is growing steadily, and demand from diversified investment entities is increasing. Overseas energy storage orders are also growing due to tariff relief and favorable policies [36]. - The "New Energy Storage Large - scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025 - 2027)" sets a goal of reaching an installed capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving direct investment of about 250 billion yuan [36]. - Australia, the UK and other countries have introduced policies to support the development of energy storage, ensuring sufficient energy storage orders [36]. 3.3 Lithium Battery Production - According to SMM statistics, in October 2025, China's lithium battery output was 192.9 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8%. Among them, the output of power cells increased by 11% to 125 GWh, the output of energy storage cells increased by 3% to 54 GWh, and the output of consumer and other cells increased by 3% to 14 GWh [43]. - From November 7, 2025, to November 10, 2026, the implementation of 6 export control measures related to strategic fields such as rare earths, lithium batteries, and super - hard materials will be suspended [43]. - According to大东时代智库, in November 2025, the production of power + energy storage batteries in Chinese battery factories was 193 GWh; the production of lithium battery A was 71.4 GWh, the production of lithium battery B was 31.4 GWh, and the production of lithium battery C was 14.9 GWh. The production of consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market was about 16 GWh. The production of power + energy storage + consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market in November 2025 was 209 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 64.6% [47]. 3.4 Lithium Battery Material Market - Lithium iron phosphate: In October 2025, the output of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 51%. It is expected that the production in November will increase by 8% month - on - month to 425,898 tons [49]. - Ternary materials: In October 2025, the output of ternary materials was 84,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% and a year - on - year increase of 43%. It is expected that the market demand will continue to improve in November, and the production plan will continue to rise slightly, with a month - on - month increase of 1.37% and a year - on - year increase of 39.76% [49]. - According to SMM statistics, in October 2025, China's electrolyte output increased by 4.8% month - on - month to 207,580 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 1.655 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.3% [50]. - According to SMM research, in October 2025, China's lithium hexafluorophosphate output increased by 14% month - on - month to 25,420 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 200,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.4% [50]. 4. Inventory Analysis - As of November 13, the lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3481 tons week - on - week to 120,500 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory decreased by 2445 tons to 28,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 3236 tons to 48,800 tons, and the inventory of other sectors such as traders increased by 2200 tons to 43,400 tons [54]. - As of November 13, the warehouse receipt volume was 26,420 tons, a week - on - week increase of 176 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 2384 tons. New warehouse receipts registration volume may be a concern due to high demand and the forced cancellation of non - compliant warehouse receipts at the end of November [54]. 5. Basis Analysis - The holding cost for 1 - month is about 1838 yuan/ton, and for 2 - month is about 2460 yuan/ton. Hold cash - and - carry arbitrage portfolios and manage risks [56]. 6. Spread Analysis - The 11 - 12 spread showed a reverse - arbitrage trend approaching the November delivery month. Pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunity of the 03 - 04 spread approaching the March delivery month [58].

Core Insights - The introduction of platinum and palladium futures and options on the Guangxi Futures Exchange meets the urgent demand for risk management tools in the industry, marking an expansion of the exchange's new energy metal sector [1][5] Price Volatility - Platinum and palladium prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with annual price volatility exceeding 20% over the past five years. For instance, platinum prices dropped to a five-year low of 154.04 yuan per gram in early 2020, followed by a recovery to an average of 228.97 yuan per gram in 2024 [2] - Palladium prices also showed high volatility, peaking at 761 yuan per gram in early 2022 and averaging 260.49 yuan per gram in 2024. The price fluctuations for palladium from 2020 to 2024 were 51.77%, 83.73%, 77.39%, 87.40%, and 40.79% respectively [2] Supply Chain Challenges - Global supply constraints, particularly due to issues in South Africa's electricity supply and mining safety incidents, have led to a tight supply of platinum and palladium despite price declines. This has increased the urgency for domestic enterprises to adopt more mature market mechanisms for price stabilization [3] Risk Management Needs - Companies like Jinchuan Group, which produce platinum and palladium, face significant operational impacts due to price volatility and lack of effective risk management tools. The absence of authoritative pricing mechanisms complicates their ability to make informed operational decisions [4] - The introduction of futures contracts is expected to provide transparent and fair pricing, filling the gap in risk management tools for the industry [5] Market Impact - The listing of platinum and palladium futures is anticipated to enhance price discovery and hedging capabilities, allowing Chinese enterprises to engage in transactions in RMB and attract international market participants [5][6] - The futures market is expected to improve the operational efficiency of enterprises by allowing them to manage price risks more effectively, thus stabilizing the domestic industrial chain [6] Industry Preparedness - Market participants are preparing for the launch of platinum and palladium futures by familiarizing themselves with contract rules and risk management mechanisms. This includes outreach efforts to educate industry players on the benefits of these new financial instruments [7][8]