Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange on November 6 is 639,940 kilograms, with a decrease of 16,230 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 11,297 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 11,443 yuan per kilogram, a low of 11,255 yuan per kilogram, and closed at 11,427 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 1.99% [1] Group 2 - The ISM services index for October expanded as expected, rising from 50 in September to 52.4, indicating improved business activity [2] - The "prices paid" sub-index of the ISM services index reached its highest level since October 2022 at 70, suggesting rising inflation [2] - ADP reported that private sector hiring exceeded expectations, indicating a strong job market, although initial market reactions were negative due to risk aversion limiting silver price increases [2][3]

最近，10月份ISM服务业指数如预期般扩张，超出预期。尽管如此，"已支付价格"分项指数显示，通胀 正在上升，该指数升至2022年10月以来的最高水平。 美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布，10月份服务业的商业活动有所改善。ISM服务业采购经理人指数从9 月份的50升至52.4，超出预期。从PMI分项指数来看，实际支付物价指数达到了2022年10月以来的最高 水平70，表明物价正在攀升。 今日周四(11月6日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于11337一线上方，今日开盘于11297元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报11368元/千克，上涨1.46%，最高触及11388元/千克，最低下探11255元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 与此同时，美联储的官员们已经越界，比如美联储理事Stephen Miran，他为ADP数据欢呼，但暗示利率 应该更低。芝加哥联邦储备银行Austan Goolsbee周一表示，通胀压力依然存在，而美联储理事Lisa Cook 表示，就业市场显示出脆弱的迹象。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 在该数据公布之前，ADP披露，私营企业招聘的人数超过预期，表明就业市场 ...

Group 1 - US stock market experienced a decline followed by a sharp recovery, with all indices turning positive by the time of reporting [1] - Individual stocks showed mixed performance, with Supermicro down over 5%, while storage stocks like Seagate and SanDisk saw gains of nearly 7% and over 6% respectively [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also rebounded, with notable increases in Chinese stocks such as Canadian Solar up over 13% and So-Young up over 7% [3] Group 2 - Gold prices surged, with spot gold increasing by over 1.1% at the time of reporting [5] - President Trump emphasized the need to reopen the government quickly, stating that the economy is in a historically strong period and that the government shutdown has impacted the stock market [7] - The US federal government shutdown reached a record length of 36 days as of November 5 [7] Group 3 - Recent ADP data indicated a rebound in the US job market, with October employment numbers increasing by 42,000, the largest gain since July 2025, surpassing expectations [7] - The ADP report suggests that while there is a rebound in employment, the overall hiring numbers remain modest compared to earlier in the year [7] - This ADP data may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on potential interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell indicating strong divisions within the committee regarding a December rate cut [8]

来源：中国金融信息网 因美国政府"停摆"导致官方数据延迟，ADP就业报告成为焦点。数据显示，美国10月ADP就业人数新增 4.2万人，预期2.8万人，前值由-3.2万人修正至-2.9万人。 目前美联储政策制定者面临劳动力市场担忧与通胀风险上升的两难局面，若在ADP数据之后的系列数据 继续有助于缓解就业担忧，将支持美元走强。 ADP报告显示，就业增长从此前两个月的疲软状态中反弹，但反弹的范围并不广泛。教育和医疗保健、 贸易、运输和公用事业引领了增长。在专业商业服务、信息、休闲和酒店业，雇主连续第三个月裁员。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson称，自去年7月以来，私人雇主在10月首次增加了就业岗位，但与今 年早些时候的报告相比，招聘人数并不多。与此同时，一年多来，薪酬增长基本持平，表明供需变化是 平衡的。 编辑：王晓伟 数据公布后，美元小幅上涨。推动美元指数上行的动力源于美联储政策前景的谨慎转向。上周美联储主 席鲍威尔明确指出，12月再次降息的可能性远未确定，且强调在官方数据发布恢复前，政策制定者需维 持"观望"态度。超预期的ADP就业报告继续支撑投资者对年内再次降息的预期降温。 当前美元指数的波动 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. job market shows signs of stabilization after two months of decline, but overall labor demand continues to slow, and wage growth remains stagnant, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's decision on potential rate cuts in December [1][6]. Employment Data - In October, ADP reported an increase of 42,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the expected 30,000 and reversing the previous month's revised loss of 32,000 jobs [1][4]. - The job growth in October reflects a cautious hiring trend among businesses, with 32,000 jobs added in the service sector and 9,000 in the goods-producing sector [4][6]. Wage Growth - Wage growth has remained stable over the past year, indicating a new balance in the labor market supply and demand, alleviating previous post-pandemic tensions [6]. Corporate Layoffs - Major companies like Amazon, Starbucks, and Target have announced significant layoffs, raising concerns about the employment outlook despite initial claims for unemployment benefits remaining low [3][6]. Federal Reserve Policy - Following two consecutive rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted a very slow cooling of the labor market, indicating uncertainty regarding further rate cuts in December [6]. - The moderate employment data provides mixed signals for the Fed, as it alleviates fears of rapid deterioration while highlighting the need for careful consideration of economic trends due to slowing demand and stagnant wage growth [6].

8月美国总统特朗普突然抛出消息，说要把美联储理事莉萨·库克赶下台，说她搞了房贷作弊。这一下子 把原本就不安分的美联储又推到风口浪尖。可总统能轻轻松松解雇一名理事？没那么简单。 库克其实是拜登任命的独立理事，本来可以干到2038年，而特朗普这么做，大家都明白他心里盘算着什 么。 他希望美联储放松利率，政策上能听他的，这样他的人将来在里面说话有分量，利率怎么调也由他把 控。 文案|编辑：凤梨 库克的一举一动成了市场和媒体眼里的风向标。她要是真被换下去，后果不只是职位问题，更关系到美 联储还能不能和政治分开，关系着美国老百姓兜里的钱会不会因为政治而被折腾。 处在风暴中心的库克并没有对外讲自己被"解雇"这事，而是直接聊起美国的经济现状。她提到美国的就 业市场已经开始吃紧了，很多黑人失业率又涨了，她盯着这些数据不放。 但说到通胀，她又非常坚定地表示，现在利率够用了，再乱调反而打乱局面。她这一番话不是一头倒向 哪一边，是在给美联储里分歧越来越大的两拨人打个"平手"。 有些人急着降息，觉得物价上涨是短期现象，不降息就怕就业糟糕到底；而另一些人铁了心要抗住，坚 持生活成本高得让人喘不过气，绝不能轻易放水。 库克没就这样认了， ...

格隆汇11月5日丨美国10月"小非农"ADP就业人数将于今晚21:15公布。官方数据连续缺席之际，该数据 已成为市场稀缺的风向标。若就业市场如预期好转，美联储12月降息前景恐再添疑云。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

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Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Signals - Federal Reserve officials, including Stephen Miran and Lisa Cook, indicate a potential for further interest rate cuts, with Miran suggesting a 50 basis point reduction if economic data aligns with expectations [1][2][3] - Cook supports the recent 25 basis point cut and expresses willingness to consider further reductions, emphasizing a data-dependent approach to future policy decisions [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 48.7, below expectations and indicating continued contraction in factory activity for the eighth consecutive month, with 12 manufacturing sectors showing decline [8][9] - The prices paid index dropped to 58, the lowest level since the implementation of tariffs, suggesting easing inflationary pressures [9] Group 3: Stock Market Reactions - Amazon's stock surged nearly 6% after announcing a $38 billion deal with OpenAI for computing power, marking a significant milestone in its cloud computing strategy [11] - Despite the S&P 500 closing slightly up, over 400 stocks declined during the trading session, indicating a divergence in market performance [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently hesitant to lower interest rates due to persistent inflation and a resilient economy, despite market expectations for a rate cut in early 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Obstacles to Rate Cuts - The primary barrier to rate cuts is that inflation has not been fully tamed, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) significantly down from its peak of 9%, but recent data has repeatedly exceeded expectations, indicating a plateau in the decline [2]. - Core inflation, excluding energy and food, remains sticky, with high housing service costs and service sector inflation supported by wage growth, compelling the Fed to exercise patience [2][3]. - The strong job market and economic growth reduce the urgency for the Fed to cut rates, as the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth is steady, supporting consumer spending and contributing to inflation [2]. Group 2: Drivers for Future Rate Cuts - Despite the challenges, rate cuts are likely on the Fed's policy path, albeit delayed, as maintaining high rates carries its own risks [4]. - The lagging effects of restrictive interest rates may suppress business investment and consumer credit, potentially leading to unnecessary economic downturns or a hard landing in the job market [4]. - The Fed aims to balance its dual mandate of controlling inflation and preventing a spike in unemployment, necessitating a gradual approach to rate cuts once inflation is under control [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The likelihood of rate cuts in 2023 remains, but the timing and magnitude have been significantly adjusted [6]. - Market expectations for the timing of rate cuts have shifted from early predictions of March or June to September or later, with the focus now on whether any cuts will occur this year [6]. - The anticipated number of rate cuts has decreased from 6-7 to 1-2, with the Fed indicating that any rate reduction will be gradual and data-dependent [6]. - Political pressures in the election year of 2024 may complicate the Fed's decision-making process, despite its efforts to maintain independence [6].