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Group 1 - The core point of the article is that coking coal futures have increased by over 4% in a single trading day, reaching a price of 1285 yuan per ton [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of policy-driven inventory replenishment expectations on the price of ethylene glycol, raising questions about the sustainability of this price increase [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - Recent policies have led to increased expectations for inventory replenishment, which is influencing the price dynamics of ethylene glycol [1] - The market anticipates that demand from end-users will rise in August, further affecting price trends [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The article raises concerns about how long the current price increase of ethylene glycol can be sustained amid changing market conditions [1]

Core Insights - The palm oil market has experienced a sudden downturn after three consecutive weeks of price increases, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 1 - The market anticipates a recovery in palm oil production in the third quarter, which is influencing current price trends [1] - July palm oil inventory levels are expected to rise, contributing to the market's bearish sentiment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The valuation shows that the marginal profit is gradually recovering, and the supply and demand of PP and PE are simultaneously contracting, with inventory accumulation. The demand side continues to be in a weak state. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices with a production history of over 20 years. Strategy-wise, there is an opportunity for PP to fluctuate on the short - side, and PE can be bought within a certain range [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to the repair of market demand expectations after the alleviation of macro - tense emotions. However, the OPEC+ production increase plan and Sino - US trade uncertainties pose upward resistance. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene's previous maintenance devices are gradually restarting, and its downstream price transmission is not smooth. The short - term trend of pure benzene fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. Styrene's supply - demand expectation is weak, but it is supported in the short - term by the domestic anti - involution sentiment, with limited upside [44]. Methanol Industry - Inland methanol prices fluctuate slightly. The supply side has high maintenance losses in July but there is a restart expectation. The demand side is restricted by the traditional off - season. The port side is expected to accumulate inventory from July to August. In the short - term, the cost is lifted by coal, and the 09 contract's fluctuation range moves up. It is advisable to buy the 01 contract at low prices [47]. Chlor - alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the short - term macro - disturbance is intense, and it is recommended to close previous long positions and wait and see. For PVC, the short - term trading logic is mainly dominated by macro - emotions, and it is recommended to wait and see [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. PTA may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Ethylene glycol is expected to run strongly in the short - term. Short - fiber has no obvious short - term driver. Bottle - chip supply - demand has an improvement expectation [71]. Urea Industry - The urea futures market is in a range - bound pattern. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak, resulting in a supply - exceeding - demand situation. The future price breakthrough depends on the substantial warming of the demand side [78]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 24 compared to July 23. For example, L2601's closing price rose from 7346 to 7436, with a 1.23% increase [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.99% to 50.3 tons, while PP enterprise inventory increased by 2.62% to 58.1 tons [2]. - **开工率**: PE device's starting rate increased by 0.97% to 79.0%, and PP device's starting rate decreased by 0.4% to 77.0% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On July 25, Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased compared to July 24. For example, Brent rose from 68.51 to 69.18 dollars per barrel, with a 0.98% increase [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The rise in oil prices is due to the alleviation of macro - tense emotions and the improvement of demand expectations, but there are still supply - side uncertainties [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products showed different trends. For example, the spot price of pure benzene decreased by 0.2% to 5980 yuan per ton [44]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 4.3% to 17.10 tons, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 8.8% to 15.07 tons [44]. - **开工率**: The Asian pure benzene starting rate increased by 0.7% to 77.4%, and the domestic pure benzene starting rate increased by 0.3% to 78.1% [44]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, methanol futures and spot prices increased compared to July 21. For example, MA2601's closing price rose from 2482 to 2550, with a 2.74% increase [47]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.55% to 33.983 tons, and methanol port inventory decreased by 8.15% to 72.6 tons [47]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise starting rate decreased by 1.01% to 70.37, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device starting rate increased by 0.56% to 75.96 [47]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of caustic soda and PVC - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2593.8 yuan per ton [50]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda industry starting rate increased by 1.3% to 86.3, and the PVC total starting rate decreased by 0.1% to 75.0 [50]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory increased by 13.8% to 21.3 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 3.7% to 36.8 tons [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of upstream and downstream products in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (September) rose from 68.51 to 69.18 dollars per barrel, with a 1.0% increase [71]. - **开工率**: The Asian PX starting rate remained unchanged at 73.6%, and the PTA starting rate remained unchanged at 79.7% [71]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of urea futures contracts increased compared to July 23. For example, the 01 contract's closing price rose from 1779 to 1796, with a 0.96% increase [75]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 4.10% to 85.88 tons, and the domestic urea port inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.30 tons [78]. - **开工率**: The urea production factory starting rate increased by 1.26% to 83.21 [78].

#行情 焦煤、硅铁、锰硅期货午后陆续涨停。 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core View - The natural rubber price may fluctuate strongly due to the armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The synthetic rubber price may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improved macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data Natural Rubber Futures - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 15245, up 240 from the previous day; the trading volume was 522391 lots; the open interest was 210844 lots; the registered warrant volume was 186680, down 20 from the previous day; the natural rubber basis was - 270, down 240 from the previous day [1]. - Regarding the daily price differences of standard rubber SCRWF in different regions compared to Shanghai, the Tianjin - Shanghai difference was - 125 (unchanged), the Shandong - Shanghai difference was - 200 (unchanged), and the Yunnan - Shanghai difference was - 325 (unchanged) [1]. - For the natural rubber monthly spread, the near - month minus the first - continuous contract was - 90, down 20 from the previous day; the first - continuous minus the second - continuous contract was 15, up 5 from the previous day; the first - continuous minus the third - continuous contract was - 10, down 35 from the previous day [1]. Synthetic Rubber Futures - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 12285, up 410 from the previous day; the trading volume was 148642 lots; the open interest was 48828 lots; the registered warrant volume was 9840 (unchanged); the synthetic rubber basis was - 535, down 343.33 from the previous day [1]. - The North - South difference of cis - butadiene rubber in the synthetic rubber basis: the South China - East China difference was - 75, up 25 from the previous day; another difference was - 25, down 60 from the previous day [1]. - For the synthetic rubber monthly spread, the first - continuous minus the second - continuous contract was 40, up 20 from the previous day; the first - continuous minus the third - continuous contract was 40, up 20 from the previous day [1]. 2. Supply Side - In the natural rubber main producing areas, Thailand and Vietnam will have stable weather and less precipitation in the next few days, while Indonesia will have more precipitation. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Yunnan and other places [1]. - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.43%, up 3.21% from last week; the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from last week [1]. - As of July 24, the daily after - tax profit of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion polymerization method was - 168.14 yuan/ton, up 110.62 yuan/ton from the previous day; the daily after - tax profit of China's SBS solution polymerization was 150.44 yuan/ton, down 53.1 yuan/ton from the previous day; the after - tax profit of cis - butadiene rubber solution polymerization process was - 787.61 yuan/ton, up 88.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3. Inventory Side - As of July 18, 2025, the weekly total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 212.92 thousand tons, down 0.67 thousand tons from last week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 1.37 million tons, down 0.12 million tons from last week; the bonded area inventory was 9.19 million tons, down 0.07 million tons from last week [1]. - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 12796 tons, up 150 tons from last week [1]. 4. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the increasing period, and the main producing areas at home and abroad have fully started tapping. As of July 24, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 55.3 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 15600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction of crude oil is not prominent, and the oil price volatility has returned to shock. The price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased. As of July 24, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 90887.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 23, the weekly port inventory of Chinese butadiene was 15.7 thousand tons, down 4.3 thousand tons from last week [1]. 5. Demand Side - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.00%, down 0.08% from last week; the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 76.58%, down 0.12% from last week [1]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the national automobile market retail sales were 2.804 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The passenger car sales in June were 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month. The truck sales in June were 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month, and the tire supporting demand has increased [1].