期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 20 日 铝：考验 21000 关口 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | | | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | 20910 | -65 | -70 | 190 | 465 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | 20925 | ー | - | ー | - | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | 2779 | -18 | 33 | 157 | 194 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | 129236 | 63433 | -50642 | 25770 | -23174 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | | 230208 | 92804 | 35910 | 16261 | -30341 | | 电解铝 LM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the futures trends of various black - series commodities, indicating that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations; logs will fluctuate repeatedly. The cost provides bottom support for silicon iron and manganese silicon, while the expectations for coke and coking coal are volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 771.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.32%); the position increased by 9,848 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) dropped by 4.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) rose by 1.0 yuan/ton, etc. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [5]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,037 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%); the trading volume was 854,671 hands, and the position decreased by 35,070 hands. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,204 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.16%); the trading volume was 487,804 hands, and the position increased by 16,084 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed accordingly [8]. - **News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 16, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 2.24 million tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.45 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 6.36 million tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 18.59 million tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 6.29 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 18.46 million tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 73.74 million tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 24.58 million tons, and the total increased by 139.96 million tons. In early October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.32 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.032 million tons, a 7.5% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.75 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.875 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month; 19.61 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.961 million tons, an 8.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month. In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a 3.3% decrease month - on - month, and imported 500,000 tons of steel, a 10.4% increase month - on - month [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [10] Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Trend**: Cost provides bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][12] - **Fundamentals**: For silicon iron 2511, the closing price was 5,458 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; for silicon iron 2601, it was 5,430 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2511, the closing price was 5,716 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton; for manganese silicon 2601, it was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [12]. - **News**: On October 17, the prices of different grades of silicon iron and silicon manganese in various regions were reported. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of silicon manganese showed different changes. An Inner Mongolia silicon iron plant carried out maintenance on two furnaces, with one recently restarted and the other expected to restart around the 25th. Steel mills such as Jinshenglan and Hegang had price adjustments and procurement volume changes for silicon iron and silicon manganese. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in ports decreased [12][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][17][18] - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2601, the previous day's closing price was 1,179 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton (-0.5%); for coke J2601, it was 1,676 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton (0.2%). Spot prices and various spreads also changed [18]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [19] Logs - **Trend**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][20] - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [22]

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Methanol - The price may continue to fluctuate under the game of supply and demand. Focus on the stability of overseas device operation, the customs - clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and actual arrival performance. Pay attention to the port destocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas - limiting expectations [1]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - The inventory pressure after the holiday is still significant. The supply pressure is prominent in the medium - and long - term, and the demand lacks highlights. The upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Caustic Soda - There is demand support in the medium - and long - term, but it is weak in the short term. It was previously recommended to be bearish, and now the short positions can be temporarily closed as the market stabilizes [8]. PVC - The short - term disk may continue to be under pressure. Although the supply pressure has slightly eased and exports have recovered, the demand in the peak season is weak. Pay attention to cost support and downstream demand performance [8]. PX - The supply and demand are expected to be weak in the fourth quarter. It will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and mainly conduct reverse spreads on the monthly spread [9]. PTA - The short - term drive is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see TA, pay attention to the support around 4500, and conduct rolling reverse spreads on TA1 - 5 [9]. Ethylene Glycol - It is expected to accumulate inventory in October, and the supply - demand structure is weak in the far - month. It is recommended to short EG01 on rallies, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse spreads on EG1 - 5 [9]. Short Fibers - The absolute price is still under pressure in the short term, but it is relatively strong compared to raw materials due to low inventory. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and widen the processing margin at a low level [9]. Bottle Chips - It is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel. PR follows the cost end, and the processing margin improves in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and the main contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [9]. Pure Benzene - The overall supply and demand in October are expected to be loose, and the price drive is weak. BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices [10]. Styrene - The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is still under pressure in the short term. EB11 should be treated as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Catalog Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices rose slightly on October 16. The basis and regional spreads changed. The spot prices in some regions decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, the port inventory decreased by 3.36%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.61% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.86%, the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 5.33%. Some downstream operating rates changed, with the MTO device operating rate increasing by 4.63% [1]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - **Price and Spread**: L2601, PP2601 and other futures prices rose slightly. The basis and price differences between contracts changed [5]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased significantly, and the trade - related inventory of PP also increased [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.6% [5]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot changed slightly. The export profit of PVC increased [8]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased, but the external - purchase calcium - carbide PVC profit decreased [8]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some decreasing [8]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory inventory and social inventory increased [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed, and the cash flows also changed [9]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: The PX price and related spreads changed, with the PX basis decreasing significantly [9]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA price and basis changed, and the processing margin decreased [9]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: The MEG price and basis changed, and the inventory increased [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as crude oil and pure benzene changed, and the spreads also changed [10]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The styrene price and related spreads changed, and the cash flow improved [10]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene port inventories decreased [10]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream industries changed, with some decreasing [10].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on synthetic rubber, released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute on October 17, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Market Quotes Summary Futures Market - The closing price of BR2511.SHF was 10,895 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan or 2.20% [3] - The settlement price was 11,005 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 1.85% [3] - The trading volume was 18,411 lots, with a 0.00% change, and the position was 76,904 lots, up 27.63% [3] Spot Market - Sinopec Chemical Sales' high - cis butadiene rubber price decreased by 300 yuan/ton this cycle, and PetroChina's main sales companies' price decreased by 500 yuan/ton [3] - As of October 16, 2025, Sinopec Chemical Sales' BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,200 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's main sales companies' BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [3] Price Differences - The month - to - month spread between the second and first contracts was 25 yuan/ton, up 150.00% [3] - The spread between BR and RU was 5.88% [3] - The spread between BR and NR was 11.94% [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Trends - The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to decline and then rebounded rapidly this cycle. The spot price ranged from 10,600 to 11,400 yuan/ton [3] - At the end of the cycle, under the influence of factors such as increased domestic maintenance losses in October - December and the US interest rate cut, the futures and spot prices of butadiene rubber rebounded rapidly [3] Supply and Demand - The external sales resources of raw materials were sufficient this cycle, but the spot negotiation focus gradually stopped falling, and the weak cost situation of butadiene rubber was slightly alleviated [3] - Due to the successive maintenance of butadiene rubber plants of Qilu Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical, Sinopec's short - and medium - term circulation resources are expected to decrease significantly [3] - There is marginal production profit in private butadiene rubber, leading to an increase in supply, and the price of private resources in the spot market has been lower than that of the two major oil companies [3] - Downstream procurement continued to suppress prices, causing the spot negotiation focus to decline continuously [3] Group 4: Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: The BR market is expected to consolidate [3] - Arbitrage: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2511 | 2,818 | -1.05 | -27,338 | -8,589 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,175 | -1.06 | -4,568 | 2,790 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 差 价 | 鸡蛋11-12价差 | | -159 | | -164 | | | 鸡蛋11-1价差 | | -357 | | -349 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.80 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.53 | | 2.42 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.80 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.00 | | 2.93 | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Both short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are supported by trading volume and are in a low - level oscillation with limited downside space [1]. - The trend strength of short - fiber and bottle - chip on the reporting day's daytime session of the main contract futures price fluctuation is neutral, with a value of 0 [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: - Futures prices of short - fiber 2511, 2512, and 2601 increased by 44, 42, and 24 respectively compared to the previous day. PF11 - 12 increased by 2, PF12 - 01 increased by 18, and the main contract basis decreased by 42. - The main contract's open interest increased by 156,786 to 276,286, and the trading volume increased by 140,234 to 187,340. The production - sales ratio increased by 33% to 79%. The spot price in East China remained unchanged at 6,305 [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: - Futures prices of bottle - chip 2511, 2512, and 2601 increased by 34, 36, and 44 respectively compared to the previous day. PR11 - 12 decreased by 2, PR12 - 01 decreased by 8, and the main contract basis decreased by 16. - The main contract's open interest increased by 11,316 to 35,207, and the trading volume increased by 19,029 to 42,764. The spot price in East China increased by 20 to 5,650, and in South China increased by 30 to 5,680 [1]. Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Futures prices oscillated upwards. Some trade discounts were reduced, and many traders held back sales due to low inventory. Factory quotes remained stable, and sales improved with an average production - sales ratio of 79% by 3:00 pm. Downstream pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn quotes remained stable, but sales were average [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: Upstream raw material futures prices rose, and some polyester bottle - chip factories raised prices by 20 - 50 yuan. Market trading was fair, and some factories raised quotes after increased trading volume in the afternoon. Orders from October to December were mainly traded at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some trade prices slightly lower at 5,560 - 5,590 yuan/ton ex - factory and slightly higher at 5,730 - 5,750 yuan/ton ex - factory [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the increase in futures prices for both coke and coking coal, with coke futures rising by 2.27% to 1686 RMB/ton and coking coal futures increasing by 2.28% to 1188 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - The rise in coke futures indicates a strengthening demand in the steel production sector, as coke is a key ingredient in the steel-making process [1] - The increase in coking coal prices suggests potential supply constraints or increased demand, which could impact the overall cost structure for companies in the steel and coal industries [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Fuel oil had a slight rebound in the night session, but the short - term weakness persists. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil in the short term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has narrowed again [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For FU2511, the closing price was 2,739 yuan/ton, down 0.40%, and the settlement price was 2,725 yuan/ton, down 1.38%. - For FU2512, the closing price was 2,697 yuan/ton, down 1.38%, and the settlement price was 2,685 yuan/ton, down 1.76%. - For LU2511, the closing price was 3,140 yuan/ton, down 1.60%, and the settlement price was 3,141 yuan/ton, down 1.97%. - For LU2512, the closing price was 3,155 yuan/ton, down 1.97%, and the settlement price was 3,158 yuan/ton, down 1.80% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of FU2511 was 2,003 lots, a decrease of 2,486 lots, and the open interest was 12,454 lots, an increase of 212 lots. - The trading volume of FU2512 was 9,775 lots, a decrease of 1,369 lots, and the open interest was 12,463 lots, a decrease of 409 lots. - The trading volume of LU2511 was 8,510 lots, an increase of 934 lots, and the open interest was 13,398 lots, a decrease of 2,971 lots. - The trading volume of LU2512 was 87,532 lots, an increase of 11,093 lots, and the open interest was 65,740 lots, an increase of 1,470 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts for fuel oil were 45,800, with no change, and for low - sulfur fuel oil were 13,080, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Singapore FOB, the price of high - sulfur fuel oil (3.5%S) was 368.6 dollars/ton, up 1.46%, and low - sulfur fuel oil (0.5%S) was 432.1 dollars/ton, down 0.06%. - In Singapore Bunker, high - sulfur was 380.0 dollars/ton, up 1.33%, and low - sulfur was 446.0 dollars/ton, up 0.45%. Similar price changes were shown in other regions such as Fujeirah, Zhoushan, Shanghai, Tokyo, and South Korea [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The FU11 - 12 spread was 42 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 40 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 2 yuan/ton. - The LU11 - 12 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was - 17 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 2 yuan/ton. - The LU11 - FU11 spread was 401 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 416 yuan/ton, with a difference of 15 yuan/ton. - The FU2510 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) spread decreased by 48.8 yuan/ton, the LU2510 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) spread decreased by 49.1 yuan/ton, and the Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) spread decreased by 5.6 dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being [- 2,2] where - 2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report views the urea market as oscillating, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative. The current supply - demand situation in the domestic market remains loose, and the recent market trend is still downward [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces, and natural gas on October 14, 2025, remained unchanged from the previous day at $465.00, $920.00, and $3680.00 respectively [1] Price - On October 14, 2025, prices in regions like Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Shandong, and Shanxi increased by $30.00, $10.00, $10.00, $30.00, and $10.00 respectively compared to the previous day. The FOB prices in China and the Middle East, as well as CFR prices in Southeast Asia and Brazil, remained unchanged [1] Inventory - On October 14, 2025, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory remained unchanged at 144.39, 41.50, and 4050.00 respectively [1] Supply - On October 14, 2025, the 5 - day output, overall开工率, coal - based开工率, and gas - based开工率 remained unchanged. The 5 - day output was 199400.00, the overall开工率 was 85.24, the coal - based开工率 was 89.41, and the gas - based开工率 was 73.39 [1] Demand - On October 14, 2025, the开工 rates of compound fertilizer, melamine, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at 25.50, 65.47, and 34.49 respectively [1] Profit - On October 14, 2025, the profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and natural gas remained unchanged at - 327.00, 142.00, and - 225.00 respectively. The price of compound fertilizer decreased by $50.00 to $2050.00 [1] Related Products - On October 14, 2025, the prices of melamine and compound fertilizer remained unchanged at $5050.00 and $2450.00 respectively. The price of methanol increased by $10.00 to $2170.00 [1] Futures - On October 14, 2025, the settlement price decreased by $3.00 to $1602.00, the basis increased by $33.00 to - 57.00, the price change rate decreased by 0.44 to - 0.19, the trading volume decreased by 49382.00 to 614111.00, the open interest decreased by 4162.00 to 321992.00, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 347.00 to 6570.00 [1]

#行情 现货黄金突破4200美元/盎司，涨幅1.4%。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#行情 纽约黄金期货突破4200美元/盎司。 ...