市场利多因素支撑，沪铜、伦铜价格小幅走高！未来需关注……点击阅读。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Insights - The entire industry is experiencing losses, leading to increased expectations for policy support, which may indicate a potential bottoming out of prices for polysilicon and industrial silicon [1] Group 1 - The current market conditions suggest that short sellers may need to reconsider their positions as the outlook for polysilicon and industrial silicon prices appears to be stabilizing [1]

2025 年 7 月 2 日 硅铁：板块情绪影响，偏弱震荡 锰硅：板块情绪影响，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2508 | 5280 | -72 | 6,944 | 22,179 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5270 | -74 | 201,387 | 209,470 | | | 锰硅2508 | 5616 | -22 | 11,254 | 14,126 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5624 | -18 | 201,673 | 383,561 | | 项 目 | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 ...

期货热点追踪 玻璃再度增仓跌破1000元！高供应遇上深加工订单下降，减产也救不了？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in palm oil futures continues, raising questions about whether prices can maintain support levels amid expectations of increased production [1] Group 1 - Palm oil futures are experiencing a downward trend, with market participants closely monitoring price support levels [1] - There is an anticipation of increased production, which is contributing to the bearish sentiment in the market [1]

| Million | > 國授期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月30日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉冲高回落，国内棉花成交一般，基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱成交依旧偏清谈。下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,下游订 单仍然不佳,下游需求偏弱或限制郑棉的高度。截至6月15号,棉花商业库存为312.69万吨,较5月底减少33.18万吨,消化仍然 良好，棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。国内5月进口4万吨，创近10年新低，同比降22万吨，环比降2万吨。进口 ...

相关链接 不必对棕榈油二连跌感到担忧？机构认为，在销区低库存与印尼B40支撑下，下半年将有所起色！棕榈 油价格中枢预计在……点击了解。 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, the near - term fundamental improvement in the producing areas is limited, and a reverse spread strategy can be considered [1]. - For soybean oil, attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Volumes** - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase, and (night session) was 8,324 yuan/ton with a - 0.62% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 210,910 hands to 442,785 hands, and open interest decreased by 4,500 hands to 450,508 hands [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,002 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase, and (night session) was 7,982 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 95,869 hands to 270,622 hands, and open interest decreased by 5,507 hands to 564,645 hands [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,466 yuan/ton with a - 0.17% decrease, and (night session) was 9,452 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 86,818 hands to 214,216 hands, and open interest decreased by 8,794 hands to 319,403 hands [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,012 ringgit/ton with a 1.19% increase [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 52.62 cents/pound with a - 0.44% decrease [1]. - **Spot Prices** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price was 8,500 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,240 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,520 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: Spot price was 1,005 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [1]. - **Basis and Spreads** - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 124 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 238 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 1,090 yuan/ton, down from 1,122 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 374 yuan/ton, down from - 360 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, down from 0 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 44 yuan/ton, down from 62 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 70 yuan/ton, down from 78 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In Argentina, the soybean and corn harvesting progress has reached 98.3% and 55.3% respectively, and the expected yields are 50.3 million tons and 49 million tons [2]. - Due to the planned tariff increase, Argentine exporters have exported 6.1 million tons of soybeans and their derivatives since June, a 22% surge compared to the five - year average. The soybean export tariff will rise from 26% to 33% in July, and the tariffs for soybean oil and soybean meal will increase from 24.5% to 31% [5]. - Strategie Grains has raised the forecast for the 2025/26 EU rapeseed production to 19.2 million tons, a 600,000 - ton increase from last month's forecast and a 14% increase compared to 2024/25. The sunflower seed production forecast has been lowered by 300,000 tons to 10.1 million tons but is still 19% higher than 2024/25. The soybean production forecast remains at 3 million tons, 4% lower than last year [5]. - As of the week ending June 24, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Alberta was 57.7%. In Manitoba, rapeseed crops are at various growth stages. In 2025, Canadian farmers planted 21.5 million acres of rapeseed, a 2.5% decrease from the previous year. In Saskatchewan, the planted area decreased by 0.5%, in Alberta by 2.8%, and in Manitoba by 9.2% [6]. - As of the week ending June 22, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 10.3% to 117,900 tons. From August 1, 2024, to June 22, 2025, exports reached 8.9319 million tons, a 52.7% increase compared to the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 1.2816 million tons [7]. - In May 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 831,193 tons, a 9.59% month - on - month decrease; rapeseed oil production was 353,218 tons, a 9.5% decrease; rapeseed meal production was 490,043 tons, a 9.76% decrease. The soybean crushing volume was 158,387 tons, a 7.97% increase; soybean oil production was 29,379 tons, a 6.64% increase; soybean meal production was 121,417 tons, a 4.66% increase [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view on both [8].

期货热点追踪 安检+环保限产！焦煤供应缺口扩大，但为何涨得这么"克制"？ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: After the cease - fire between Iran and Israel this week, oil prices quickly gave back the geopolitical premium and returned to a volatile state. The upstream cost support collapsed, and the PTA futures market followed suit. However, in terms of supply - demand structure, PTA itself did not accumulate inventory. It is expected that the PTA spot price will continue to fluctuate and adjust following the cost side in the short term, with the spot basis fluctuating within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the polyester load reduction in July [5]. - MEG: At the beginning of this week, the ethylene glycol port inventory will still show a certain decline. However, there will be a concentrated arrival of foreign - owned vessels at the beginning of July, and the subsequent visible inventory will gradually increase. The domestic and foreign supply will gradually recover, and the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation in the third quarter, with an overall increase of around 200,000 tons. The on - site spot liquidity will continue to be released. In addition, the polyester sales have been weak recently, and the terminal load has declined. The subsequent industrial chain contradictions will gradually be transmitted upwards. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will be mainly adjusted weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, there were transactions for mid - to - late July at 09 + 250 - 257, with the price negotiation range around 5,000 - 5,045. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 255. The 3.6 - million - ton unit of Yisheng New Materials reduced its load last week, and by Friday, the PTA load dropped to 77.7% [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 5,025, and the basis of the 09 contract is 247, with the futures price at a discount, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net long position increased, which is bullish [6]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market trading was weak. The domestic and foreign price centers of ethylene glycol declined weakly. The recent mainstream negotiation price for foreign vessels was around 506 - 511 US dollars/ton, and the domestic trading negotiation range was 4,323 - 4,370 yuan/ton [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,340, and the basis of the 09 contract is 69, with the futures price at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 504,700 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons compared to the previous period, which is bullish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position increased, which is bearish [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand situation and inventory changes of PTA over the years [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol total operating rate, production, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of ethylene glycol [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers on June 26 and 27, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data of futures contracts [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester products from 2021 to 2025 through charts, including factory inventory days and port inventory [41][43]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: It presents the operating rate data of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 through charts, reflecting the production status of the polyester industry chain [52][54][56][58]. - **Profit Data**: It includes the profit data of PTA processing, MEG production in different ways, and polyester fiber production from 2022 to 2025, helping to analyze the profitability of the industry [60][63][65]