出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 段明珠 头图 | 视觉中国 在2023年底全球经销商大会上，古井贡酒吹响"冲向300亿、奋进新征程"的号角，但那成了绝唱，后续再也不听不到300亿这个目标数字；2024年古井贡近些 年首次没有实现"精准"增长计划，且在年报中对2025年也仅给出一个模糊的"营业总收入较上年度实现稳健增长"的营收计划。 论业绩，古井贡酒算是当前白酒赛道除茅台外"最靓的仔"，2024年营收和净利分别同比增长16.41%、20.22%；25年Q1营收和净利增速仍保持双位数增长， 分别为10.38%和12.84%，占了行业第二和第一的位置。 而且，过去古井贡酒凭借国资背景其实在省内找不到真正的对手（老对手口子窖和迎驾贡酒都是民营企业），但新"禁酒令"实际上对地方"政商酒"会造成深 远影响。 但有业内人士认为，古井贡酒的高增还是通过给渠道压货完成，增长不够健康。这看起来有些道理，复盘古井贡过往的增长，其以"年份原浆"打开次高端市 场，坚持深度分销在徽酒里断层第一，虽然未能成功全国化，但在行业下行周期已表现很亮眼。 所以未来古井贡酒是增长还是下滑的核心在3点，首先是产品能不能打（品牌力）；如果相对较弱，是否 ...

Market Performance - The liquor concept index rose by 0.83%, ranking sixth among concept sectors, with 28 stocks increasing in value [1] - Notable gainers included Huangtai Liquor, which hit the daily limit, and other stocks like Yingjia Gongjiu, Jinzongzi Liquor, and Zhongrui Co., which rose by 7.19%, 5.67%, and 5.42% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 1.559 billion yuan, with 30 stocks receiving net inflows, and 6 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflow [2] - Leading the net inflow was Kweichow Moutai with 357 million yuan, followed by Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu with net inflows of 341 million yuan, 218 million yuan, and 205 million yuan respectively [2] Stock Performance - Stocks with the highest net inflow ratios included Huangtai Liquor at 30.18%, Luzhou Laojiao at 17.06%, and Yiyaton at 15.50% [3] - Kweichow Moutai had a slight increase of 0.19% with a turnover rate of 0.28% and a net inflow of 357.21 million yuan [4] - Other notable performers included Luzhou Laojiao with a 2.78% increase and a turnover rate of 1.20%, and Wuliangye with a 1.94% increase and a turnover rate of 0.76% [4] Decliners - The stocks with the largest declines included Liujin Technology, Ju Li Suo Ju, and *ST Yedao, which fell by 5.26%, 3.01%, and 2.68% respectively [1]

今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PET铜箔 | 2.09 | 可燃冰 | -4.14 | | 光刻胶 | 1.45 | 脑机接口 | -3.34 | | BC电池 | 1.13 | 短剧游戏 | -3.07 | | 钙钛矿电池 | 1.06 | 智谱AI | -3.06 | | 航运概念 | 1.02 | 快手概念 | -2.99 | | 白酒概念 | 0.83 | MLOps概念 | -2.97 | | 兵装重组概念 | 0.80 | 华为盘古 | -2.80 | | 先进封装 | 0.79 | 财税数字化 | -2.79 | | 石墨电极 | 0.65 | 云办公 | -2.66 | | 低辐射玻璃(Low-E) | 0.64 | 小红书概念 | -2.53 | 资金面上看，今日脑机接口概念板块获主力资金净流出5.46亿元，其中，23股获主力资金净流出，7股 主力资金净流出超3000万元，净流出资金居首的是汉威科技，今日主力资金净流出1.33亿元，净流出资 金居前的还有创新医疗、汤姆猫、诚 ...

需求端：开瓶率夯实消费地基 文/王芮 近期，随着"618"线上大促开启，部分电商平台飞天茅台展示价格出现松动，引发市场关注。然而，深 入线下渠道的核心腹地，却可见另一番景象：广州等多个地区的经销商与终端零售商反馈，2025年飞天 茅台成交价稳居2100元/瓶左右，部分市场零售价更普遍维持在2200元/瓶左右。一位烟酒店负责人直 言："客户认的就是这个品牌，需求一直很稳。" 线上补贴价迷雾之下，多位白酒行业分析人士点破实质——电商平台部分低价实为引流噱头，其背后 是"展示价+平台补贴"的复杂组合，商家实际到账金额仍能达2260元/瓶左右。这种非正常销售的低价既 不可持续，亦无法撼动茅台线下流通主力格局。白酒行业周期性淡季中的价格波动本是常态，而茅台作 为龙头，其一举一动被置于放大镜下审视，自然更易引发讨论波澜。 同样来自广州的经销商则表示，"目前最受市场欢迎的还是500ml的飞天酒，因为它是飞天中最经典的一 款产品，无论是收藏、投资、送礼等，它的属性是没有变的，目前我们飞天的库存不是很多。"一位贵 州经销商也表示："飞天茅台的开瓶率还是不错的。" 聚焦飞天茅台消费场景来看，宴请需求刚性持续，商务往来持续活跃，婚 ...

Concept Performance - The PET copper foil concept saw a daily increase of 2.09%, while the combustible ice concept experienced a decline of 4.14% [1] - Other notable increases included photolithography at 1.45% and BC battery at 1.13%, while short drama games fell by 3.07% [1] Low-E Glass Concept - The Low-E glass concept had a net inflow of 0.45 billion yuan, with seven stocks receiving net inflows, led by Wanshun New Materials with 20.91 million yuan [1] - Key stocks in the Low-E glass concept included Wanshun New Materials, Hainan Development, and Qibin Group, with respective net inflows of 20.91 million yuan, 17.66 million yuan, and 13.23 million yuan [1] Stock Performance - As of June 20, the Low-E glass concept increased by 0.64%, ranking 10th among concept sectors, with Wanshun New Materials, Hainan Development, and Qibin Group leading the gains at 4.68%, 2.64%, and 1.62% respectively [3] - Decliners in the Low-E glass concept included XinSai Co., Sanxia New Materials, and AnCai High-Tech, with declines of 2.53%, 1.00%, and 0.22% respectively [3] Fund Flow Ratios - Fund inflow ratios were highest for Qibin Group, Wanshun New Materials, and Hainan Development, with net inflow rates of 11.05%, 7.29%, and 5.62% respectively [2][4] - Wanshun New Materials had a trading volume of 20.91 million yuan and a turnover rate of 7.81% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The perovskite battery concept has shown a positive performance with a 1.06% increase, ranking fourth among concept sectors, indicating growing investor interest and potential in this technology [1][2]. Market Performance - As of June 20, the perovskite battery sector saw 35 stocks rise, with notable performers including: - Keheng Co., Ltd. (科恒股份) reaching a 20% limit up - Saiwu Technology (赛伍技术) and GCL-Poly Energy (协鑫集成) also hitting the limit up - Jin Xin Nuo (金信诺) and Woge Optoelectronics (沃格光电) increasing by 6.43% and 4.18% respectively [1][2]. - The sector experienced a net inflow of 566 million yuan, with 31 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 30 million yuan in net inflow [2]. Key Stocks and Their Performance - The top stocks in the perovskite battery sector based on net inflow and performance include: - Keheng Co., Ltd. (科恒股份): 20% increase, 2.51 billion yuan net inflow - GCL-Poly Energy (协鑫集成): 9.91% increase, 2.50 billion yuan net inflow - Saiwu Technology (赛伍技术): 10.04% increase, 963.47 million yuan net inflow - Jin Xin Nuo (金信诺): 6.43% increase, 581.85 million yuan net inflow [3][4]. Sector Comparison - The perovskite battery sector's performance is compared to other sectors, with notable increases in: - PET Copper Foil: 2.09% - Lithography Glue: 1.45% - BC Battery: 1.13% - Conversely, sectors like Combustible Ice and Brain-Machine Interface saw declines of -4.14% and -3.34% respectively [2].

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 06 月 20 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250620 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为-0.07%，深证成指涨跌幅为-0.47%， 创业板指涨跌幅为-0.83%。 申万一级行业表现：交通运输、食品饮料、银行在行业涨跌幅榜居前； 国防军工、社会服务、机械设备在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，白酒、光刻胶、保险概念表现相对较好；营 销传播、操作系统、网红经济概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 今日关注 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 策略点评 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq ...

Nationalization Strategy - The nationalization strategy of Gujinggongjiu is a necessary choice for long-term development and an important way to achieve scale expansion and performance growth, with a current national coverage rate exceeding 70%, and a provincial structure ratio of 6:4 [1] - The company aims to develop its nationalization strategy from "horizontal" to "vertical," with core markets outside the province becoming another engine for rapid growth [1] - By building a number of large provincial markets and customers outside the province, Gujinggongjiu is expected to further increase sales scale and market share in these areas [1] "Baijiu+" Strategy - The "Baijiu+" strategy is forward-looking and innovative, helping the company to expand its business boundaries and meet diverse consumer needs, including the integration of Baijiu with traditional Chinese medicine, low-alcohol products, and the food industry [1] - Transitioning products into commodities, upgrading commodities to bestsellers, and evolving star products into perennial favorites presents significant challenges [1] Growth Opportunities - The company will continue to optimize its product structure, using Gu20 as a strategic pivot to capture the sub-high-end consumer group while expanding market share for popular products like Gu8, Gu5, and other traditional offerings [1] - The growth of sub-high-end products significantly enhances the company's overall profitability and meets consumer demand for high-quality Baijiu [2] Expansion in Health Sector - Gujinggongjiu is accelerating its entry into the health sector with the "Baijiu + Health" strategy, launching innovative products like herbal-flavored whiskey, which may help the company secure a position in the health beverage market [2] - New beverage offerings from Anhui Gujing Health Technology Co., such as 100% coconut water and herbal fermented drinks, provide new business growth points for the company [2] Innovative Consumer Experiences - The company is creating new consumer experiences by integrating brand and culture through innovative consumption scenarios, which better meet the needs of younger consumers and enhance brand loyalty [3] Mergers and Acquisitions - Gujinggongjiu's acquisition of Hubei Huanghelou Liquor Co. demonstrates strong execution in resource integration and strategic expansion, providing potential for achieving a revenue target of 30 billion [3]

Industry Dynamics - In the first five months, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 278.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [4] - In May, China's beer export volume increased by 52.9% year-on-year, totaling 78.41 million liters, while the export value rose by 59.6% to 406.94 million yuan [4] - During the "618" shopping festival, Meituan's flash purchase platform reported a more than tenfold increase in white liquor sales compared to the same period last year [5] - The 2025 Sichuan International Wine Expo opened, featuring over 100 renowned wine companies from more than 10 countries [5] - Three companies, including Wuliangye, Shede, and Budweiser, were selected as advanced intelligent factories in Sichuan for 2025 [5] - Chengdu's ecological environment bureau issued "15 measures" to support the high-quality development of the liquor industry [6] Company Dynamics - Kweichow Moutai won the "Investor Relations Management Tianma Award" for its outstanding practices and shareholder returns [7] - Wuliangye issued a consumer notice clarifying that it has never sold a product called "Light Bottle Eighth Generation Wuliangye," which violates food safety laws [7] - Wuliangye's new smart packaging project is expected to enter trial production by the end of this year, with an estimated annual sales of over 3 billion yuan [8] - Jian Nan Chun's second phase of the Grand Tang National Liquor Ecological Park began production, adding 30,000 tons of quality raw liquor capacity and creating 3,000 jobs [9] - Zhujiang Beer announced a leadership change, with Huang Wensheng appointed as the new chairman [9] - Zhangyu Cabernet N188 won the highest award at the Decanter World Wine Awards, marking a significant achievement for Chinese wine [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the consumer sector, particularly the liquor industry, is experiencing a potential "double bottom" in valuation and performance by 2025, following a prolonged adjustment period [4][9]. - The Consumer ETF (159928) has shown resilience, with a recent increase of nearly 1% and a trading volume exceeding 200 million yuan, leading the sector with a total scale of over 12.1 billion yuan [1][10]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the Consumer ETF are predominantly performing well, with notable gains from Shanxi Fenjiu (over 3%) and Luzhou Laojiao (over 2%) [3]. Group 2 - The liquor industry has underperformed over the past five years, with a decline of 9% in the first half of 2025, lagging behind the overall A-share index by 15 percentage points [4][5]. - The current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the liquor industry stands at 18 times, below the overall A-share average of 19 times, indicating a pessimistic market outlook for future earnings [4][6]. - Historical comparisons suggest that the current adjustment period may mirror the 2012-2014 phase, where significant policy changes impacted the industry, leading to a similar decline in performance [5][6]. Group 3 - The dividend yield for the liquor sector has increased, making it more attractive compared to government bond yields, suggesting a potential valuation bottom may have been reached [7][9]. - The food and beverage sector is transitioning from high growth to reasonable growth, with expected revenue growth for listed companies in 2025 projected to remain in single digits [10]. - Emerging markets within the food and beverage sector, such as prepared foods, baking, health products, and tea beverages, are indicative of a broader trend towards consumer upgrading and entertainment [10].