欧盟外交官：欧盟成员国支持对价值930亿欧元美国商品征收反制关税的可能性。 ...

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 央视新闻22日消息，美国对菲律宾的关税税率终于"尘埃落定"，菲律宾将被征收19%的关税，同时对美 国"零关税"开放市场。 对于亲自赶赴白宫会见美国总统特朗普的菲总统小马科斯而言，这样的结果难免尴尬，毕竟关税最终只 比原先降低了1%；而让菲律宾彻底坐不住了的是，同为美国在亚洲的盟友，日本也在同一天与美方达 成协议，还拿到了更低的关税税率15%。 "我们当初谈判真该更强硬些，"菲政治学者、菲律宾大学亚洲中心高级讲师理查德·海德利安（Richard Heydarian）悻悻然，嘟囔道，"日本拿到的优惠幅度要大得多。" 当地时间周四（24日），菲律宾驻美国大使罗穆亚尔德斯（Jose Manuel Romualdez）在华盛顿受访时表 示，菲方计划在8月1日正式生效前，继续争取将美对菲征收的关税从19%降至15%。 "关税仍有进一步优化的空间，"他在节目上说，"正如他（特朗普）今天早些时候宣布的，最低关税已 降至15%，因此我们都希望能将关税降到这一水平。" 罗穆亚尔德斯坚称，菲方相信"仍有时间"就此展开谈判，而且贸易协议的许多细节仍有待讨论。 菲律宾总统小马科斯（左）与罗慕尔德兹（右）。社交 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced plans to impose simple tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on most countries [2] - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance in China issued a notice for the implementation of a subsidy program for elderly care services, marking the first nationwide subsidy for elderly care [3] - The World Health Organization issued a warning about the resurgence of the chikungunya virus, which is spreading from the Indian Ocean region to Europe and Asia [5] Group 2 - The Chinese government clarified the tax policies for the Hainan Free Trade Port, establishing a "zero tariff" system to enhance trade liberalization [6] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that a new round of economic talks between China and the U.S. will take place in Sweden, focusing on mutual respect and cooperation [7] - A joint action plan was released by three departments in China to address illegal behaviors in vehicle transportation, aiming to enhance road safety [8] Group 3 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment emphasized that nuclear safety is crucial for the development of nuclear power, advocating for strict regulation [13] - The National Climate Center forecasted that 3 to 4 typhoons will impact China's coastal areas in late July and August [14] - The Chinese government announced the resumption of tourist visas for Chinese citizens to India after a five-year hiatus [15] Group 4 - A land auction in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, set a new record for the highest floor price at 65,242 yuan per square meter, surpassing the previous record [18] - A report highlighted that Jiangsu Province dominates the top 10 of the 2025 China County Economic Development rankings, with six counties listed [19] - The Kunming Housing Provident Fund Management Center announced adjustments to the standards for personal housing loan applications, easing criteria for first and second homes [20] Group 5 - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 500 points, driven by optimism regarding upcoming trade agreements [36][37] - A report indicated that the average interest rate for three-month fixed deposits in China has entered the "0 era," reflecting a downward trend in deposit rates [38] - Regulatory authorities warned consumers about the rise of "professional debtors" scams, urging caution against easy wealth traps [39]

美东时间 7 月 23 日周三，美股市场表现活跃，三大指数集体收涨。其中，道指上涨 1.14% ，纳 指上涨0.61% ，标普 500 指数上涨 0.78% ，市场整体呈现积极态势。 从板块和个股表现来看，热门科技股多数实现上涨。超微电脑涨幅超 3% ，英伟达、 AMD 涨幅均 超 2% ， Meta 、博通涨幅也超 1% 。 纳斯达克金龙中国指数同样收涨，涨幅为0.75% ，报 7896.94 点。热门中概股呈现分化走势，小 马智行初步收涨 7.7% ，文远知行涨5.2% ，腾讯涨4% ，拼多多涨 3% ，台积电涨2.3% ，阿里 涨 1.5% ，网易、百度、京东涨幅不到1% ；而小米则下跌 0.7% ，理想跌 1.4% ，蔚来跌 2.1% 。 更为引人关注的是，美国总统特朗普当日释放重磅信号："将对世界其他大部分国家征收 15% 至 50% 的简单关税。" 01 欧美关税协议传闻搅动市场 特朗普称将对多数国家征税 当天，有媒体援引知情人士消息称，美国和欧盟已接近达成一项贸易协议。根据该协议，美方将对 欧盟征收15% 的关税，这与美国本周同日本达成的贸易协议类似。欧盟方面可能同意这种对等关税 安排，以此避免 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is preparing a €100 billion (approximately $117 billion) "no-deal" plan in response to the potential 30% tariffs imposed by the United States on a wide range of EU exports if negotiations fail [1] Group 1 - The EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on U.S. products worth approximately €100 billion if U.S. President Trump follows through on his threat after August 1 [1] - The European Commission spokesperson indicated that the EU will merge the previously approved tariff list of €21 billion and an additional proposed list of €72 billion into a comprehensive plan [1] - U.S. export products, including Boeing aircraft, American-made cars, and bourbon whiskey, will face tariffs matching the 30% threat from Trump [1] Group 2 - The tariffs are expected to be ready for implementation next month, contingent on the failure of negotiations and the U.S. enforcing its tax measures after the August deadline [1] - A government official mentioned that Berlin is even willing to support the activation of the EU's "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI) in the absence of an agreement [1]

潮新闻客户端 记者 吴恩慧 调整了三个月的黄金，又有卷土重来的迹象？ 如何看待黄金重返3400美元/盎司？接下去，黄金是否会冲击新高？ 吴恩慧摄 黄金创一个多月新高 有大妈说一个月才赚400元 近段时间，黄金一直处于3100美元-3500美元之间的震荡。杭州多家黄金珠宝公司向记者透露，这两个月本来就是淡季，加上黄金处于区间震荡，因此交易 并不热闹，客户无论是买入还是卖出，都没有上半年活跃。 7月22日，现货黄金价格强势突破3400美元/盎司关口，盘中最高触及3433.49美元/盎司，创下6月16日以来新高，收盘上涨1.02%至3431.2美元/盎司。 7月23日，现货黄金继续保持高位震荡，截至当天15点发稿时，交投于3420美元/盎司上方。 今天，国内品牌金店黄金零售价格普遍上调，周大福、曼卡龙等金店零售价格站上1023元/克。 多重因素助力金价冲高 上金所再次提醒风险 如何看待这两天黄金重返3400美元/盎司？ 不过，黄金在这两天突破3400美元/盎司，也让一部分投资者萌生卖出变现的计划。 受访者供图 "没想到投资黄金还挺煎熬啊，拿了一个月，终于回本了。我还以为要成为站上山顶的大妈了。"今天一早，杭州70后 ...

【导读】A股冲击3600点，日股大涨 中国基金报记者泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今天的市场，大起大落，A股盘中突破了3600点，然而到了下午，高歌猛进的气势遭到打击，三大指数冲高回落！ 与此同时，日本股市大涨超过1400点，市场迎来贸易利好以及政坛震荡的消息。 一起看看发生了什么事情。 日股暴涨1400点 7月23日，日本股市大幅上涨。随着美国总统特朗普宣布与日本达成关税协议，买盘集中涌向汽车等出口相关板块。加上石破茂首相传出将辞职的 消息，市场对新政府的期待升温，东京证券交易所股价指数（TOPIX）收盘创下历史新高，日经225指数暴涨近1400点。 日本汽车制造商的股价大幅上涨。 本田股价上涨超过11%，丰田大涨近15%。日产上涨逾9%，马自达飙升超过17%，三菱汽车也上涨逾13%。 特朗普总统于22日宣布，美日已在贸易谈判中达成协议，美国将对日本进口商品征收15%的关税。受此消息影响，市场认为日本央行更容易启动加 息，债券大幅下跌，长期利率升至2008年以来的最高水平。与此同时，日元汇率跌至1美元兑147日元出头的水平。 爱泽证券投资顾问部的基金经理三井郁男指出，原本压制股价的参议院选举与关税不确定性已明朗化，" ...

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures market is boosted by policies, with expectations of industry capacity - reduction. Spot transactions are average, and prices in Shandong and Guangdong have decreased. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory in most enterprises due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. Short - term macro disturbances increase trading risks, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait and see [2][4]. - The PVC futures market is also boosted by policies, with expectations of industry capacity - reduction. The spot market has light transactions and little price fluctuation. It is in a slack season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. Short - term trading is more influenced by macro - sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Methanol - In the inland market, methanol prices fluctuate slightly. Supply may increase as the maintenance losses in July are high but there are expectations of resumption. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens, Iranian device production returns, and imports are expected to be 1.25 million tons in July and slightly decline in August. There may be inventory accumulation from July to August due to the combination of import recovery and olefin maintenance [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Although some PX devices have load fluctuations, and terminal demand feedback is negative, PX supply is still expected to be tight, and PXN has some support. The short - term PX09 is expected to operate in the range of 6,600 - 6,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [10]. - PTA: The current PTA load is around 80% with new device launch expectations, and terminal demand is weak. Considering the tight PX supply and the strong domestic commodity market sentiment, the TA09 - TA01 spread can be rolled in a reverse way, and the PTA processing fee around 250 yuan/ton can be used for short - selling attempts [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: Multiple coal - based ethylene glycol devices stopped unexpectedly in mid - July, leading to lower - than - expected supply increase and reduced import expectations. Short - term port inventory is expected to remain low, and the short - term EG2509 - P - 4300 put option seller can hold the position [10]. - Short - fiber: Although short - fiber factories plan to cut production in July, the overall supply and demand are weak in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [10]. - Bottle - chip: July is the peak season for soft - drink consumption, and there are expectations of improved demand. However, considering the high historical supply level, attention should be paid to whether the device production cuts increase and the downstream follow - up situation [10]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly, mainly due to macro - pressure. The approaching US trade negotiation deadline on August 1st has not alleviated the macro - tension, and the threat of a 30% tariff may suppress oil demand. Although there are expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventory, trade tariff uncertainties are the core contradiction. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band - trading strategy, with support levels at [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [498, 505] for SC. Options can be used to capture volatility opportunities [13][14]. Urea - The core driver of the urea futures market comes from macro - policies. Policies to optimize the industrial structure and eliminate backward production capacity are considered beneficial to the urea industry. Export data shows weakness, and the market focuses on new policy support. The futures price stimulates the spot trading atmosphere, and the basis is expected to be repaired. In the short term, there is no significant reduction in demand and capacity. In the long term, the transformation of coal - based urea capacity structure may be promoted. Attention should be paid to export quota implementation, trading volume recovery, and market expectations [15]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - In terms of valuation, the marginal profit is gradually recovering, and both PE and PP have supply - demand contraction and inventory accumulation, with weak demand. PP maintenance has reached its peak, PE maintenance first increases and then decreases, and there are few import offers. Demand is expected to pick up seasonally at the end of July. Strategically, the market sentiment is warm, PP is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see for short positions, while PE can be bought in the range [20]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July. Although there is news of production cuts from some devices, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene, and import expectations are high with high port inventory. Short - term pure benzene may be boosted by the strong domestic commodity market, but the rebound space is limited. The main contract BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [25]. - Styrene: The styrene industry has high - level operation with maintained profits. The basis of near - month contracts weakens, and the profits of some downstream industries are slightly repaired. The supply - demand situation is marginally improved but still weak in expectation, and port inventory continues to increase. Short - term styrene is boosted by the market, but the increase is limited due to weak supply - demand expectations and high valuation. The EB09 is expected to operate in the range of 7,100 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7,500 yuan/ton and short - selling opportunities. The EB - BZ spread can be shorted at high levels [25]. 3. Summaries by Catalog PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: Shandong 50% caustic soda price decreased by 2.2% from July 21st to July 22nd; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased by 0.8%. Some futures contracts such as SH2509 and V2509 also had significant price increases [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.3% from July 11th to July 18th, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1% [2]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry's operating rate increased by 1.0%, and the viscose staple fiber industry's operating rate increased by 8.7% from July 11th to July 18th. The PVC downstream product operating rate showed mixed trends [3][4]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased, and the total social inventory increased [4]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: MA2601 and MA2509 prices increased by 2.18% and 1.91% respectively from July 21st to July 22nd. The basis and regional spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 1.28%, and port inventory increased by 9.92% [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94%, and some downstream operating rates such as MTBE increased, while others like formaldehyde decreased [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and prices of other upstream products such as CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China MX also had different degrees of decline [10]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX price increased by 0.1%, and PX basis, spreads, and processing fees changed [10]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA spot price decreased by 0.2%, and futures prices increased slightly. PTA processing fees decreased [10]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG spot price increased by 0.4%, and futures prices also increased. MEG basis and spreads changed [10]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: Brent oil price decreased by 0.90%, and WTI oil price increased by 0.52% on July 23rd compared to July 22nd. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 also changed [13]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.28%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 2.12%. Refined oil spreads also had different changes [13]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The synthetic ammonia price in Shandong increased by 1.54%, and some urea spot prices in different regions increased slightly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and factory inventory decreased, while port inventory increased [17]. - **Market Sentiment**: The futures market is affected by policies, and the spot market trading atmosphere is stimulated [17]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices increased, and spot prices of华东PP拉丝 and华北LLDPE膜料 also increased [20]. - **Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates increased slightly, and some downstream operating rates changed [20]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased [20]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and CFR Japan naphtha price decreased by 1.2% [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The CFR China pure benzene price increased by 0.5%, and the pure benzene basis and import profit changed [24]. - **Styrene**: The styrene East China spot price decreased by 0.8%, and styrene basis, spreads, and cash - flow changed [24]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [25].

Group 1 - The core issue of the visit is to address the impending 20% tariffs on Philippine exports to the US, which has raised significant concerns domestically [1][3] - The proposed tariff increase from 17% to 20% has led to a decline in the Philippine stock market, indicating widespread anxiety among investors [1] - The Philippines has a trade surplus of approximately $5 billion with the US, making it a critical market for Philippine exports [1] Group 2 - Defense cooperation is another key topic during the visit, with discussions held at the Pentagon, but the US has indicated it does not seek confrontation with China, which complicates the Philippines' strategic positioning [3][5] - The Philippines has increased military cooperation with the US, including the establishment of four new military bases, but the US's stance suggests limited support in potential conflicts [3][5] - Recent actions by the Philippines in the South China Sea have not yielded tangible benefits, contrasting with previous cooperation with China that resulted in increased investments and agricultural exports [5] Group 3 - The Philippines is facing internal political pressures, with recent election results showing a divided Senate, which may challenge President Marcos's governance [8] - The Philippines is attempting to attract Chinese tourists and students while struggling to ensure their safety, creating a contradictory stance that undermines credibility [8] - The upcoming meeting between Marcos and Trump is critical, as the outcome will significantly impact the Philippines' economic direction and regional stability [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The futures market was boosted by relevant policies, and there are expectations for industry capacity reduction. The caustic soda spot market had average transactions, with prices in Shandong and Guangdong decreasing. Low - concentration caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The PVC spot market had light transactions, and the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions in caustic soda and temporarily observe for PVC [6]. Methanol - Inland prices fluctuated slightly. Supply had high maintenance losses in July but there are expectations of resumption. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season. At the port, the basis strengthened, overseas Iranian device production returned, and there will be inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to observe the market [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is less affected, but demand support is weak. PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, while ethylene glycol supply - demand is expected to improve in the short term. Short - fiber supply and demand are both weak, and bottle - chip supply - demand has improvement expectations but is still affected by high supply and inventory. Different strategies are recommended for each product [11]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to macro - pressure. The approaching US trade negotiation deadline and the lack of progress in negotiations have suppressed demand expectations. Although there are expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventory, trade tariff uncertainty is the core contradiction. It is recommended to adopt short - term band strategies [16]. Urea - The core driver of the urea futures market comes from macro - policies. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [24][25]. Polyolefins - The marginal profit of PP and PE is gradually recovering, and supply and demand are both contracting, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. At the end of July, demand is expected to pick up seasonally. It is recommended to be short - biased on PP and buy within the range for PE [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve slightly, but its own driving force is limited due to high import expectations and port inventory. Short - term pure benzene may be boosted but with limited rebound space. The supply - demand of styrene is marginally repaired but still weak, and its increase is limited. Different strategies are recommended for each [31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.2%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.8%. Futures prices generally rose, and basis and spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Supply**: From July 11 to July 18, the caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.3%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 2.0% [4]. - **Demand**: From July 11 to July 18, the alumina industry's operating rate increased by 1.0%, and the viscose staple fiber industry's operating rate increased by 8.7%. The operating rate of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased [5][6]. - **Inventory**: From July 10 to July 17, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the upstream factory inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory increased [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, and the basis and spreads changed. Regional spot prices also had different changes [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 1.28%, and the port and social inventories increased [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94%, and some downstream operating rates changed, such as the MTBE operating rate increasing by 3.46% [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha changed slightly. PX, PTA, and other prices and spreads also had corresponding adjustments [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of Asian and Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all had different degrees of change, and the comprehensive operating rate of polyester decreased by 0.5% [11]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 3.6% from July 14 to July 21 [11]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 23, compared with July 22, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.90%, WTI increased by 0.52%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 also changed [16]. - **Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil had different changes, and the spreads also changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of urea contracts generally increased, and spot prices in different regions also had small increases [19][23]. - **Supply and Demand**: From July 17 to July 18, the domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.25%, and the factory inventory decreased by 7.46% from July 11 to July 18 [24]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of L2601 and PP2601 increased, and spot prices of PP and LLDPE also increased. Spreads and basis changed significantly [29]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the inventory of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of pure benzene and styrene and their spreads changed [31]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries also had different degrees of change [31].