证券研究报告·行业点评报告·机械设备 ◼ 中美贸易获 90 天窗口期，后续仍有谈判空间 此前，中国出口美国商品关税为145%，包括20%芬太尼关税（2025 年 2 月 1 日第 14195 号行政令加征 10%以及 3 月 3 日修改该行政 令至 20%）+34%对等关税（根据 4 月 2 日第 14257 号行政令） +50%对等关税（根据 4 月 8 日第 14259 号行政令）+41%对等关 税（根据 4 月 9 日第 14266 号行政令）。此次合约落地后，90 天 内中国出口往美国的产品关税为 30%（20%芬太尼+10%对等）， 90 天后提升至 54%。中美协议为企业产品出口、海外产能储备等 提供了缓冲期，为盈利水平较为突出的企业提供了保留美国市场 份额的机遇。 ◼ 建议关注盈利水平高、关税承受能力强、估值回落的高机龙头 浙江鼎力 在保证较好盈利基础上，我们预估浙江鼎力国内产能对美新增关 税承受能力约 60%（总体承受能力约 100%，即 24%双反关税 +25%301 关税+20%"芬太尼"关税+34%对等关税），且关税全部 落地稳定后，公司差异化产品有一定顺价能力。本次中美关税政 策调整， ...

Radiant Logistics (RLGT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call May 12, 2025 04:30 PM ET Speaker0 Greetings, and welcome to the Radiant Logistics Third Quarter Fiscal Year twenty twenty five Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are on a listen only mode and a question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note, this conference is being recorded. This afternoon, Bon Crane, Radiant Logistics' Founder and Chief Executive Officer and Radiant's Chief Financial Officer, Todd McCumber, will provid ...

Core Points - The US and China have agreed to significantly reduce tariffs, with the US lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% [1] - A 90-day tariff suspension has been established, signaling a potential stabilization in US-China trade relations [2][8] - The recent tariff changes are seen as a major benefit for export companies, although concerns remain about the sustainability of this easing [2] Tariff Changes - The US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will lower tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [1] - The agreement includes a 90-day suspension of tariffs, which is viewed as a positive development for exporters [2][8] Impact on Exporters - Many export companies have faced significant order cancellations and disruptions due to previous tariff increases, with some reporting a drop in order volumes by half [4] - The cancellation of the $800 tariff exemption has further complicated logistics for cross-border e-commerce, leading to a shift in strategies among exporters [6][10] - Exporters are now racing to utilize the 90-day window to ship goods to the US and stock local warehouses [10] Market Adaptation - The recent tariff crisis has prompted many Chinese exporters to diversify their markets beyond the US, with increased focus on regions like the Middle East and Europe [11][12] - The volatility in trade relations has led to a shift in business strategies, emphasizing the need for adaptability in uncertain environments [14]

消息公布后，截至发稿，Five Below股价飙升17.3%，Yeti大涨13.2%，SharkNinja涨幅达8.4%，耐克也 上涨6.6%。 智通财经APP获悉，中美宣布关税暂停90天的联合声明发布后，杰富瑞(Jefferies)随即发布了消费板块投 资建议。分析师兰德尔·科尼克(Randal Konik)指出，投资者长期持有Five Below(FIVE.US)、耐克 (NKE.US)、SharkNinja(SN.US)和野营装备品牌Yeti Holdings(YETI.US)的股票有望获利。 科尼克在报告中写道："尽管这些品牌均面临不同程度的对华关税压力，但凭借庞大的企业规模，它们 能够有效缓冲冲击。在为期90天的关税暂停期内，随着贸易谈判推进，企业管理层或将迎来显著的成本 下降——此前多数企业都已按照145%的关税税率制定经营计划。" 此番市场热潮源于中美达成协议，双方同意暂时取消大部分互征关税，这标志着全球两大经济体之间的 贸易紧张局势显著缓和。根据协议，美国将在5月14日前把中国商品关税从145%临时下调至30%，中国 也会将美国进口商品关税从125%降至10% 。 中美双方还表示将继续就经贸政 ...

Group 1 - The recent consensus on trade tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to significantly lower tariffs within the next 90 days, leading to a recovery in China's appliance exports to the U.S. [2][3] - The current tariff on most home appliance products exported from China to the U.S. is 55%, which includes a combination of previous tariffs and new ones. This is a substantial decrease compared to the previous month [2][3]. - Companies are advised to maximize their exports during this 90-day window while preparing for potential future uncertainties in trade relations [2][4]. Group 2 - U.S. customers are beginning to respond positively to the tariff changes, with companies like Xinbao and Zhongshan Letu Electric preparing to resume shipments to the U.S. market [3]. - The reduction in tariffs is seen as a short-term benefit for trade between China and the U.S., allowing companies to communicate and expedite shipments to American clients [3][4]. - Despite the positive outlook, companies are encouraged to remain flexible and prepare for potential fluctuations in the trade environment after the 90-day period [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in U.S. retail giants like Walmart, which have resumed orders from Chinese suppliers while agreeing to bear the additional tariff costs, indicating a change in strategy amidst ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1][5]. Group 1: Retail Industry Dynamics - Walmart and other U.S. retailers have resumed orders from Chinese suppliers after a brief pause, with the commitment to absorb new tariff costs, which were previously expected to be passed on to Chinese suppliers [1][3]. - The shift in U.S. retail strategy follows a meeting between retail representatives and President Trump, contrasting with their earlier attempts to transfer tariff burdens to Chinese suppliers [1][4]. - U.S. retail inventory levels are nearing critical thresholds, prompting retailers to act to avoid stock shortages and price increases that have led to consumer panic buying [3][4]. Group 2: Economic and Political Context - Retailers are anticipating a potential easing of tariff policies, driven by the upcoming midterm elections and the political pressure of rising inflation on the White House [4][8]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has revealed that there is no current negotiation on tariffs between the U.S. and China, contradicting claims of ongoing discussions [7][8]. - The actions of U.S. retailers reflect a recognition of the limitations of unilateral trade policies, as they seek to stabilize supply chains and consumer prices amidst political uncertainty [10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The resumption of orders from Walmart signifies a vote of confidence in the Chinese supply chain, suggesting that even major retailers are aware of the unsustainable nature of prolonged trade tensions [10]. - The article highlights the importance of market forces over political rhetoric, indicating that the need for Chinese goods will challenge any political barriers imposed by tariffs [10].

*纳斯达克中国金龙指数小幅下跌。 周五美股窄幅波动，投资者等待周末重磅贸易谈判的结果。截至收盘，道指跌119.07点，跌幅0.29%， 报41249.38点，纳指微涨不到0.01%，报17928.92点，标普500指数跌0.07%，报5659.91点。道指周跌 0.16%，纳指周跌0.27%，标普500指数周跌0.47%。 市场概述 周四，市场对英国和美国之间达成的贸易协议表示欢迎，这是自美国总统特朗普宣布暂停关税90天以来 的首份协议。 据媒体援引消息人士的话称，印度已提出将与美国的关税差距从现在的近13%削减到不到4%，以换取 特朗普的关税豁免。 需求预期升温，国际油价反弹超1.5%。 *三大股指窄幅震荡，纳指平盘； *美联储巴尔：贸易关税可能推高通胀和失业率； 美联储理事巴尔表示，在预期的经济放缓中，美国政府的贸易关税可能会提高通货膨胀率和失业率。 中长期美债收益率窄幅波动，与利率预期关联密切的2年期美债跌1.2个基点至4.88%，基准10年期美债 平盘。市场定价显示，美联储有望在7月重启降息。 个股方面，特斯拉收涨4.7%，报道称，4月特斯拉在英国的销量被多家中国汽车制造商超越。 明星科技股涨跌互现， ...

据了解，日前，外交部发言人宣布：应瑞士政府邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于 5月9日至12日访问瑞士，与瑞士领导人及有关方面举行会谈。访瑞期间，何立峰副总理作为中美经贸中 方牵头人，将与美方牵头人美国财政部长贝森特举行会谈。 外交部发言人林剑在5月7日的例行记者会上表示，美方近期不断表示希望同中方进行谈判。这次的会谈 是应美方请求举行的。中方坚决反对美国滥施关税，这一立场没有任何变化。同时，我们也多次说过， 中方对对话持开放态度，但任何对话都必须建立在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上。任何形式的施压胁迫对 中国都是行不通的。中方将坚定维护自身正当利益，维护国际公平正义。 商务部新闻发言人何亚东5月8日在回应中美经贸高层会谈相关问题时表示，中方坚决反对美国滥施关税 的立场是一贯的，美方想要通过谈判解决问题，就要正视单边关税措施给自身和世界带来的严重负面影 响，正视国际经贸规则、公平正义和各界理性声音，拿出谈的诚意，要在纠正错误做法、取消单边加征 关税等问题上做好准备，拿出行动，与中方相向而行，通过平等协商解决双方关切。如果说一套做一 套，甚至企图以谈为幌子，继续搞胁迫、讹诈，中方绝不会答应，更不会牺牲原 ...

Supply Side - The April USDA report did not adjust the supply from major producing countries, reducing supply pressure for U.S. soybeans [1] - Brazil and Argentina's soybean production expectations remain unchanged, with limited adjustment space for South American yields [1] - U.S. soybean planting has begun with favorable weather conditions, leading to a fast planting pace and potential for high yields, although later weather variability poses risks [1] Demand Side - April saw strong soybean meal transactions due to increased future soybean arrivals, leading to low channel inventories as downstream and traders delayed purchases [1] - Delays in soybean customs clearance in April resulted in tight soybean meal supply, driven by timing mismatches and essential demand [1] - Overall feed demand remains stable, with an increase in hog and egg-laying hen inventories, and significant year-on-year growth in feed production from January to March [1] Market Outlook - The spot basis for soybeans fluctuated significantly in April, with a sharp price drop expected after the May Day holiday as soybean customs clearance completes and oil mill operating rates recover [1] - Futures contracts are trading at discounts to spot prices, indicating increased supply expectations, which may limit the upside for soybean meal in the short term [1] - The market is advised to monitor U.S.-China trade negotiations, new season soybean planting, and the May USDA report for balance sheet forecasts [1] Strategy - For cash traders, the basis is expected to weaken in May [1] - For futures speculators, a narrow trading range is anticipated in the short term, with a bearish outlook for the July contract, neutral for the September contract, and cautious bullishness for the November and January contracts [1] - Key variables to watch include the May USDA report, U.S.-China negotiation developments, and new season soybean planting [1]

2018年5月3日，中美双方开启第一轮贸易谈判；七年后的今天过去了，双方再次进行贸易谈判接触，有哪些不同？ 自俄乌冲突以来，世界秩序已经被改变，特朗普抱怨北约过分依赖美国，而新冠病毒的出现，也一定程度上重塑全球化，我国的制造业，则变得比七年前更 强大。 明白了这些变与不变，我们才能够更好分析这场两个大国之间的贸易谈判。 这次会谈的细节已经流出，我国将于5月9日至12日访问瑞士；美方的代表则是财长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔，他们也将前往瑞士。 和七年前最大的不同之处就在于，这一次双方的关税税率都非常高；2018年特朗普对我国价值2000亿美元的商品加征25%的关税，这一次则高达145%。 5月7日，距离特朗普宣布对等关税超过一个月。 世界上两个最大的经济体，终于要开始进行实质性接触了，对双方而言，这都是一件好事。但和七年前相比，这一次双方谈判有什么不同？ 有一些事实，在过去的七年时间里仍然没有改变，而这些事实，它有可能改变谈判走向。 还有一些变化，也有可能改变谈判走向。 但不可否认的是，这一次会谈显然是个好兆头，美方有意和我们进行谈判，对彼此来说，都算是赢家。 但这也很可能只是一个漫长而曲折过程的开始，客观上，双边 ...