Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, indicates that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the short term due to a weakening labor market and reduced inflation risks [1][2] Group 1: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - Williams notes an increase in downside risks to employment as the labor market cools, while upside risks to inflation have decreased [1][2] - The core inflation is on a downward trend, and there are no signs of second-round effects from tariffs impacting current inflation rates [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Current monetary policy is considered to have a certain degree of tightness, but its intensity has lessened compared to recent measures, suggesting potential adjustments to the federal funds rate target range [1] - Market expectations indicate a 40% probability of a rate cut at the December meeting, reflecting uncertainty among Federal Reserve officials regarding further cuts [2] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation Impact - Trade tariffs are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to the current inflation rate, but Williams does not foresee any significant second-round price effects from these tariffs [2] - The Consumer Price Index in the U.S. rose by 3% over the past year, raising concerns among officials about inflation management [2] Group 4: Long-term Inflation Goals - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to a 2% target while avoiding unnecessary risks to the labor market [2] - Williams anticipates that tariffs will continue to exert upward pressure on prices over the next year, but expects inflation to return to the 2% target by 2027 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the construction of a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system, emphasizing the need to narrow the interest rate corridor to enhance the effectiveness of the central bank's policy rates [1][10]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Framework - The central bank aims to strengthen the role of policy interest rates and narrow the width of the short-term interest rate corridor, facilitating the transmission from policy rates to market benchmark rates [1][10]. - The current interest rate corridor has a width of 240 basis points, which has led to instances where market benchmark rates significantly deviate from policy rates, weakening the guiding effect of the policy rates [9][10]. New Interest Rate Corridor - The proposed new corridor will have an upper limit set by the temporary overnight reverse repurchase rate and a lower limit set by the temporary overnight repurchase rate, with a reduced width of 70 basis points, a decrease of 135 basis points from the original corridor [2][10]. - The market benchmark rate may shift from DR007 to DR001, indicating a tighter control over short-term interest rates [2][12]. Implications of a Wider Corridor - A wider interest rate corridor has been criticized for allowing significant deviations of market rates from policy rates, which can lead to excessive leverage in the market [9][10]. - The corridor was established post-2015 to stabilize short-term market rates, but instances of DR007 falling below policy rates have raised concerns about its effectiveness [6][8]. Challenges in Adjusting the Corridor - Adjusting the corridor involves potential challenges, such as the impact on market expectations and the need to balance the upper and lower limits effectively [4][11]. - The central bank may face difficulties in incentivizing banks to lend to the real economy if the excess reserve rate is raised, as it could lead to a preference for holding funds at the central bank [11][12]. Future Developments - The central bank has indicated that narrowing the interest rate corridor is essential for clearer communication of monetary policy objectives and enhancing the guiding role of policy rates [10][12]. - The new corridor structure has already begun to take shape, with the market benchmark rate now fluctuating within the newly defined limits, indicating a more effective monetary policy transmission mechanism [12][14].

美联储最新公布的消息显示，决策者们在十二月是否继续降息的问题上存在明显分歧。这揭示了美联储内部对于未来货币政策路径的激烈争论，令市场对十 二月降息的预期大幅降温。 这种分歧源于美联储内部对经济形势判断的不同。部分官员关注到劳动力市场正在逐步降温，而另一些官员则更担心通胀持续高于百分之二目标水平的问 题。核心通胀率居高不下，住房服务通胀率的下降被商品通胀率的上升所抵消，使得决策者们在平衡双重使命时面临艰难抉择。 此前政府长达四十四天的停摆进一步加剧了决策难度。关键经济数据的缺失导致决策者在十月会议上"像在大雾中开车"，只能依赖零散的私人机构数据和企 业调研。尽管部分数据已陆续恢复发布，但信息不完整的困境仍可能影响十二月的政策决定。 除了利率政策，美联储还在十月会议上讨论了资产负债表相关议题。决策者们一致同意自十二月起停止缩减美债和抵押贷款支持证券持仓的行动，结束自二 零二二年六月开始的量化紧缩进程。这一决定获得了广泛支持。 随着十二月会议的临近，美联储如何平衡这些相互矛盾的压力将成为市场关注焦点。决策者们需要在支持经济与抑制通胀之间找到恰当平衡，而内部共识的 缺乏无疑使这一任务变得更加复杂。 市场对美联储政策前 ...

【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 | Millio ■控期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月21日 | | 黄金 ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡回落。推迟公布的9月非农就业人数增加11.9万超预期和前值，但失业率小幅上升0.1个百分 点至4.4%,周度初请失业金人数22.3万人低于预期维持低位,就业保持韧性。美联储官员们表态存在较大分 歧,12月维持利率不变可能性较高。美股大幅回调,警惕流动性风险。贵金属高位震荡,关注技术面的方向 性突破。 ★美联储 -- ①巴尔:对通胀仍处于3%水平表示担忧。需要支持劳动力市场,但需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in China remains unchanged for six consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40%, making it difficult for LPR to decrease [1] - The net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.42% at the end of Q3, unchanged from Q2 but down 10 basis points from the end of last year, indicating pressure on banks to lower LPR [1] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average for new personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Future monetary policy is expected to focus on precision, coordination, and balance, with an emphasis on optimizing the structure rather than the scale of monetary supply [2][3] - The PBOC aims to maintain a reasonable interest rate relationship to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and reduce speculative activities [3] - There is potential for new rounds of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the end of the year, which could lead to further decreases in LPR and stimulate domestic financing demand [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The economic growth in October continued the slowdown trend in the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments have been fully deployed by the end of October, which may effectively boost investment growth in the fourth quarter, and it is expected that the annual economic growth target of 5% can be achieved without worry [104]. - The overall fundamental data in October was weak, with indicators such as exports, social financing, and social retail showing varying degrees of decline. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery trend in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. In the short term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [105]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.51%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract rose 0.01%. The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while the open interest decreased [13][30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.51%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [16][22]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: From January to October this year, the national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. From January to October, the national fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the bank settlement and sales surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and the cross - border capital inflow increased. The new LPR remained stable for the sixth consecutive month, and there is still a possibility of a decline in the future. The yield of Japan's newly issued 10 - year treasury bonds reached a new high since June 2008. The Fed's decision - making on interest rate cuts in October was highly controversial. The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in September increased significantly, but the unemployment rate rose to a new high since October 2021 [33][34][35]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spread**: The spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year treasury yields narrowed, and the spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year treasury yields widened [41]. - **Main Contract Spread**: The spread between the 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts narrowed, and the spread between the 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened [50]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Near - Far Month Spread**: The inter - period spreads of the 10 - year, 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts all narrowed [54][61]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T treasury bond futures main contract increased slightly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight and 1 - week interest rates decreased, while 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.44%. The yields of treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 0.6bp and 0.9bp to 1.81% and 2.16% respectively [71]. - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The spreads between the 10 - year and 30 - year China - US treasury yields both narrowed slightly [78]. - **Central Bank Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 434 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.44% [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.203854 trillion yuan, and the total repayment was 1.263495 trillion yuan, with a net financing of - 59.641 billion yuan [87]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0875, with a cumulative depreciation of 50 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened [90]. - The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond decreased, and the VIX index increased significantly [96]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond in China increased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [101]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic**: In October, economic indicators such as social retail, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed a slowdown. Social financing and credit decreased slightly year - on - year, and the support of government bonds for social financing continued to weaken. The export growth rate turned negative. The 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments have been fully deployed, which may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved [104]. - **Overseas**: The US government shutdown ended, and a large amount of economic data will be released. The non - farm payrolls in September increased significantly, but the unemployment rate rose. The Fed's decision - making on interest rate cuts was controversial, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December decreased significantly [104].

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical demand and structural trends in the precious metals market are expected to resonate through 2026, with projected COMEX gold prices rising to $4,500 per ounce and COMEX silver prices to $55 per ounce, indicating further upward potential compared to current forward curves [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. tariff policy in 2025 disrupted the global macro environment, leading to a cumulative increase of over 50% in international gold prices and over 70% in silver prices, outperforming other major asset classes [2] - The strong performance of precious metals this year has been primarily driven by cyclical buying demand from European and American ETFs, with silver's price increase surpassing that of gold [2][3] - The return of cyclical buying demand to the European and American ETF markets has been a key factor in the further price breakthroughs of gold this year, contrasting with the previous three years where emerging market central banks were the marginal source of gold investment demand [3] Group 2: Investment Trends - The unique value of physical gold and the strategic resource attributes of silver are expected to be further highlighted in the new macro order, providing structural support for global central bank gold purchases and private sector physical investments [2][5] - The development of investment products such as futures, options, and gold ETFs has provided more investment avenues, but physical gold remains irreplaceable in asset allocation [5] Group 3: Risks and Opportunities - The potential for significant price corrections in gold is a growing concern, with historical triggers identified, although the likelihood of cyclical turning points occurring in 2026 is considered low [4] - The recent "short squeeze" in the silver market has led to the U.S. including silver in its critical minerals list, which may increase the risk of tariffs on silver and heighten trade disruption risks [6]

"在讨论货币政策的近期走向时， 与会者对 （货币政策）委员会（FOMC） 12月会议最有可能采取的政策决定表达了截然不同的看法 。 大 多数（Most）与会者认为，随着委员会逐步转向更为中性的政策立场，可能适合"进一步降息， "然而，其中一些（several）人暗示， 他们未必认为12月会议适合再降息25个基点。 一些（Several） 与会者评估 认为 ，如果在接下来的 两次会议之间，经济发展符合他们的预期， 可能较为适合12月"进一步降息 。" 许多（Many） 与会者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在今年剩 余时间内， 可能适合"维持利率不变 。 所有与会者一致认为，货币政策并非一成不变，而是会受到各种最新数据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡的影响。 媒体指出，在美联储会议纪要中常用的所谓计数术语中，"许多"（Many）一词代表的人数低于"多数或大多数"（most/majority）。因此， 以上表述显示，在上次FOMC会议中，反对12月再次降息的人仍是少数派。 无论如何，多人认为可能12月不应降息都体现了联储内部的鹰派倾向。 美联储10月29日会后公布的决议声明显示，FOMC决定连续第二次降息25个基点，但 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may consider tightening monetary policy, including potential interest rate hikes, to address the weakening yen and its impact on inflation [1][4]. - The BOJ has indicated that if it is confident that Japan's underlying inflation will stabilize above the 2% target, it will continue to raise interest rates [2][6]. - Japan's consumer prices rose by 3% year-on-year in October, exceeding the previous month's increase of 2.9%, marking the longest period of inflation above the BOJ's target since 1992 [2][3]. Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen is expected to increase import costs, which will subsequently affect domestic prices and consumer inflation rates [4][5]. - The BOJ's Governor, Ueda Kazuo, noted that the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation may have intensified, as companies are more actively raising prices and wages [5]. - Historical trends show that changes in the yen's exchange rate have been significant triggers for adjustments in BOJ policy, as seen in the rate hike following the yen's depreciation last July [6][8]. Group 3 - There is a growing consensus within the BOJ regarding the need for interest rate hikes, with two members of the policy committee already advocating for such measures during the October meeting [8]. - BOJ board member Koeda Junko suggested that she would support a rate hike if proposed by Governor Ueda at the upcoming policy meeting on December 19 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for Asian investors is cautious due to economic uncertainty and fluctuating market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is unclear, with increasing concerns about its impact on the market [1] - Discrepancies among Federal Open Market Committee members highlight the uncertainty in economic forecasts, with some advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others oppose any cuts [1] - Fed Chair Powell warned that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, contributing to market anxiety [1] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. equities have rebounded nearly 40% from their "liberation day" lows but have recently become more volatile [1] - Concerns are growing over high valuations, skepticism regarding AI spending, and issues related to AI infrastructure debt financing [1] - Factors such as a recent government shutdown, weakening private sector employment data, declining consumer confidence, and unclear Fed policy are deepening market worries [1] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Investment Strategy - Corporate earnings remain strong, and M&A activity is on the rise, supported by fiscal and monetary policy [2] - AI spending is identified as a key driver of economic growth, corporate earnings, and market performance, offsetting weaknesses in real estate, manufacturing, and the job market [2] - The company maintains a neutral stance on risk assets while closely monitoring economic sector disparities [2] Group 4: Stock Market Preferences - The company holds a neutral position on U.S. equities across market capitalizations, noting that while large caps may benefit from AI optimism, small caps present attractive valuations and could benefit from lower interest rates and increased M&A/IPO activity [2] - A higher allocation to Chinese stocks is maintained, with technology expected to be a key growth driver for China [2] - The company is underweight on U.S. long-term Treasuries due to potential upward pressure on yields from U.S. government financing needs [2]