[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 债券研究报告 社融增速的几种读法 ---社融增速见底了吗？ 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 不同口径下的社融增速如何？ 全口径社融增速对债市指引意义下降，我们梳理了多口径的社融增速和 还原化债之前的实际情况： 目前剔除政府债的社融增速在 6%左右震荡，进一步剔除票据融资和未 贴现银行承兑汇票后的社融增速有小幅上升。企业核心信贷增速 2023 年开始单边下行，2025 年开始下行速度放缓，近几个月在 8%左右震荡； 如果考虑中长期产业债，实际上目前企业的核心社融增速已经有明显上 行。 化债对于社融增速有什么影响？ 央行已经在多个场合分析过化债对信贷、社融增速的影响：2024 年以来， 地方政府发行 4 万亿元特殊再融资债券，其中约六到七成用于偿还银行 贷款。截止 2025 年底人民币贷款还原地方化债影响后增长 7%左右。 化债影响还原后，实际上，2025 年信贷增速、剔除政府债的社融增速、 剔除政府债和票据的社融增速都经历了一个先上行、后下行的过程，尽 管目前仍在下行，但还原后显然不是一个单边下行的状态。如果用企业 核心社融（含产业债）进行还原，能够观察 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the national development bond (国开债) yield spread has lagged in its recovery compared to government bonds (国债), with the spread widening instead of narrowing during the recent market rebound [2][7][30] - The report highlights that the national development bond yield spread is currently at a historically high level, with mid to short-term spreads above the 70% historical percentile since 2021, and all maturities above the 80% percentile over the past one to three years [7][30] - The report identifies several reasons for the lag in recovery of the national development bond yield spread, including restrained buying sentiment from trading desks and strong demand for long-term government bonds from major banks, which has limited the recovery of the spread [3][11][30] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank's bond purchases have contributed to maintaining a higher yield spread between national development bonds and government bonds, particularly affecting short-term bonds [4][19][30] - It is observed that during the recent market rebound, funds have preferred to focus on credit spreads, such as those of tier-2 capital bonds, rather than national development bonds [19][30] - The report suggests that there may be opportunities for recovery in the national development bond yield spread, as it is currently at a high percentile, while credit spreads have compressed to lower levels, indicating potential for a shift in focus towards national development bonds [5][31]

Core Viewpoint - As of January 22, 2026, a total of 96 regions in China have disclosed the latest debt resolution dynamics, with 15 regions mentioning the complete clearance of hidden debts. The total issuance of local government bonds for debt resolution reached 227.849 billion yuan, including special refinancing and special new bonds for replacing hidden debts, with 215.961 billion yuan specifically for special refinancing [1][7]. Group 1: Debt Resolution Dynamics - Gansu Province reported the collection of contract performance funds amounting to 3.354 million yuan, contributing to debt resolution efforts [2]. - Jiangsu Province announced the complete clearance of government hidden debts [2]. - In Gansu Province, the state-owned enterprise reform has concluded, with 14 financing platforms exiting [2]. - Jiangsu Province's Nantong City received a refinancing bond quota of 7.13 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts [2]. - Sichuan Province's Ya'an City maintained a stable debt ratio below the risk warning line [2]. - In Qinghai Province, 33 non-platform enterprises resolved debts totaling 7.497 million yuan, with the average asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises dropping to 26.5% [2]. - Chongqing City reported the establishment of a special control mechanism, resolving hidden debts of 1.229 billion yuan and reducing financial debts by 2.342 billion yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia reported the complete clearance of government hidden debts, exiting the risk warning [2]. Group 2: Bond Issuance for Debt Resolution - The total scale of local government bond issuance for debt resolution reached 227.849 billion yuan, with 215.961 billion yuan allocated for special refinancing to replace hidden debts [6][7]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds in Zhejiang Province amounted to 56.4 billion yuan, while Sichuan Province issued 49.113 billion yuan [6]. - Shandong Province issued 25.609 billion yuan, and Anhui Province issued 24 billion yuan for similar purposes [6]. - The issuance of refinancing bonds in Liaoning Province reached 17 billion yuan, with a focus on replacing hidden debts [6].

Core Insights - Guizhou Province is facing significant local debt issues, with a total local government debt balance projected to reach 17,537.09 billion yuan by the end of 2024, and urban investment enterprise debt around 9,000 billion yuan, indicating a heavy debt burden compared to national averages [1][7][10] - The province has implemented a multi-faceted debt resolution strategy, supported by central government policies, which has led to a gradual reduction in urban investment enterprise debt and improved financing structures [2][20][43] Debt Characteristics - The local debt scale in Guizhou has been continuously increasing, with local government debt expected to reach 17,537.09 billion yuan and urban investment enterprise debt around 9,000 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [7][10] - There is a significant regional disparity in debt distribution, with urban investment enterprise debt concentrated in Guiyang and Zunyi, accounting for approximately 60% of the province's total [10][16] - Some cities are experiencing liquidity pressure, with cash assets insufficient to cover short-term debts, particularly in Zunyi and Guiyang [14][16] Debt Resolution Measures - Guizhou has limited self-resources for debt resolution but has received substantial support from central policies, forming a multi-dimensional debt resolution system [2][20] - Financial support includes loan extensions, interest rate reductions, and bond financing, with provincial banks providing over 1 trillion yuan in credit to issuing enterprises [2][30] - The province has issued special refinancing bonds and special new bonds, with cumulative issuance amounts ranking among the top in key provinces since 2024 [40][41] Debt Resolution Outcomes - The debt scale of issuing urban investment enterprises has been significantly reduced since the end of 2022, with a net repayment scale exceeding 350 billion yuan annually for 2023-2024 [2][44] - The concentration of repayment pressure has notably decreased, with the distribution of maturing bonds becoming more balanced [48] - Credit spreads for urban investment bonds have narrowed significantly, although they remain at a high level compared to other key provinces [50][53] Future Outlook - In the short term, liquidity risks are manageable under the current debt resolution policies, but repayment pressures for urban investment enterprises persist [3][20] - Long-term growth is expected in sectors such as liquor, mineral processing, digital economy, and new energy, which may help gradually resolve debt issues through economic development [3][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's plans for economic policy implementation in the upcoming year, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy Implementation - The government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the coming year [2]. - There is an expectation of a mild expansion in fiscal policy, reflected in an increase in fiscal deficit and government debt to support the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]. - The fiscal policy will likely follow the "debt replacement first, then investment" approach, with a coordinated issuance of various types of bonds [2][3]. Group 2: Bond Issuance Plans - Special refinancing bonds worth 2 trillion yuan will be issued in the first and second quarters to alleviate local government hidden debt pressures [3]. - The new special bond quota is expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, with approximately 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt clearance and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, accelerating in the second quarter [3]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds may increase to 1.8 trillion yuan, starting in the second quarter, to work in parallel with special bonds [3]. Group 3: Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for enhancing policy effectiveness, with ongoing collaboration between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China [3]. - The central bank is expected to maintain a reasonable liquidity environment to support the large-scale issuance of government bonds in the new year [3]. Group 4: VAT Law Implementation - The meeting approved the draft implementation regulations for the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law, emphasizing the need for effective legal support to ensure smooth implementation [4][5]. - The VAT Law, which is set to take effect on January 1, 2026, will maintain the current tax rate structure of 13%, 9%, and 6% [5].

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the need for all departments to implement the overall requirements and policy orientation for economic work in the coming year, accelerating the formulation of specific implementation plans [1][2] - The meeting highlights the importance of cross-departmental collaboration to form a joint effort in promoting development, ensuring a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The fiscal policy is expected to moderately expand, with an increase in fiscal deficit and government debt to provide sustainable financial support for the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3] Group 2 - In terms of debt replacement, 2 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds will be issued in the first and second quarters to alleviate local government hidden debt pressure [3] - The new quota for special bonds is expected to be 5 trillion yuan, with approximately 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt clearance and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, accelerating in the second quarter [3] - The issuance of ordinary government bonds will be slowed down to avoid concentrated supply shocks, ensuring balanced issuance of various bonds [3] Group 3 - The meeting approved the draft implementation regulations for the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law, emphasizing the need for effective implementation and legal guidance to protect taxpayer rights and create a fair competitive environment [4] - The VAT Law is set to take effect on January 1, 2026, maintaining the current tax system framework and overall tax burden levels [4][5] - The VAT rates will remain at three levels: 13%, 9%, and 6%, with zero tax rates applied in certain situations, ensuring stability in tax revenue [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent State Council meeting led by Premier Li Qiang, focusing on the implementation of economic policies for the upcoming year, emphasizing the need for effective coordination among government departments to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2][3]. Economic Policy Implementation - The meeting highlighted the commitment to a more proactive macroeconomic policy in the coming year, with an emphasis on an expansionary fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - It is expected that the fiscal policy will continue the "debt-for-investment" approach, with a focus on issuing special refinancing bonds and special bonds for project construction [4][5]. - The anticipated issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds will occur in the first two quarters to alleviate local government debt pressures [5]. Fiscal Measures - The new special bond quota is projected to be 5 trillion yuan, with approximately 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt clearance and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, which will accelerate in the second quarter [5]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds may increase to 1.8 trillion yuan, starting in the second quarter, to work in tandem with special bonds [5]. VAT Law Implementation - The meeting approved the draft implementation regulations for the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law, which is set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [6][7]. - The VAT rates will remain at 13%, 9%, and 6%, with a zero rate for certain conditions, ensuring stability in tax revenue and fiscal governance [7].

Core Insights - The significant increase in net financing of government bonds reflects a proactive approach to counterbalance the contraction of private sector credit, thereby stabilizing macroeconomic conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Government Bond Financing - The net financing of government bonds reached 13.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year-on-year, effectively filling the gap left by the contraction in private sector credit [1][2] - This financing supports the growth of social financing stock and directs funds towards critical areas such as technological innovation and social welfare through the multiplier effect of fiscal spending [2] Group 2: Debt Management - A significant portion of the government bond financing is utilized for "debt replacement" and "debt resolution," optimizing the structure of existing debts rather than solely funding new projects [3] - The strategy of replacing high-interest, opaque hidden debts with lower-interest, longer-term government bonds alleviates the financial burden on local governments, allowing them to refocus on economic development [3] Group 3: Asset Allocation Pressure - The expansion of government bond issuance addresses the asset allocation pressures faced by financial institutions, which have been struggling with a scarcity of quality assets amid declining market interest rates [4] - Increased supply of government bonds meets the asset allocation needs of banks and insurance companies, enhancing their asset structure and providing liquidity support from the central bank [4] Group 4: Long-term Economic Implications - The substantial growth in government bond financing serves as a robust response to short-term economic growth pressures while addressing long-term structural risks [4] - By effectively utilizing the expanded government credit, there is potential for significant returns in driving high-quality economic development in the future [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new features of local government bonds include scale expansion, longer terms, and declining interest rates. The position of special bonds in local government bonds is becoming increasingly prominent. The issuance scale of local government bonds is restricted by the issuance quota, and the issuance rhythm is evolving towards a more balanced distribution. There are three stages of debt resolution: non - government bond replacement, implicit debt resolution, and expansion of the replacement scope. The investor structure of local government bonds is dominated by commercial banks, and the market is relatively concentrated. Currently, there may be room for the spread of local government bonds to compress, and attention should be paid to 3Y, 20Y, and 30Y local government bonds as well as "flying" bonds [2]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. New Features of Local Government Bonds: Scale Expansion, Longer Terms, and Declining Interest Rates - Since 2015, local government bonds have become the only legal borrowing channel for local governments. In 2025 (January - September), the issuance scale was 8.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.85 trillion yuan; the average issuance interest rate was 1.93%, a year - on - year decrease of 44bp; the weighted average issuance term was 15.63 years, a year - on - year increase of 2.46 years [7]. - Special bonds are becoming more prominent. From 2015 to 2024, the issuance scale of general bonds was between 1.7 trillion and 3.6 trillion yuan, and its proportion in local government bonds decreased from 74.6% to 21.1%. The issuance scale of special bonds increased from 0.97 trillion yuan to 7.7 trillion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 25.84%, and its proportion increased from 25.4% to 78.9% [13]. - The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds has significantly lengthened, from 10.3 years in 2019 to 15.6 years in 2025 (as of September 30). The proportion of local government bonds with a term of over 20 years has increased from 20.12% in 2021 to 31.95% in 2024 [18]. - In 2025 (January - September), the funds of new local government bonds were mainly invested in traditional infrastructure and land development, such as municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, land reserve, etc. [22] 2. Factors Affecting the Issuance Scale and Implementation Effect of Local Government Bonds 2.1 Issuance Scale Constrained by Quotas and Rhythm Evolving towards Balance - The issuance scale of local government bonds is restricted by the issuance quota. It is estimated that the early - batch quota for 2026 is about 3.12 trillion yuan. The issuance rhythm has shifted from being concentrated in the second and third quarters to a more balanced distribution throughout the year [36]. 2.2 Market Impact of Local Government Bond Supply Regulated by Institutional Demand and Supporting Policies - The impact of local government bond supply on the market is affected by the allocation demand of financial institutions. Commercial banks are the main holders of local government bonds, and their allocation willingness is affected by asset returns, regulatory requirements, market sentiment, and the "asset shortage" situation [39]. - The central bank's supporting liquidity policies can alleviate the impact of supply shocks. When local government bonds are issued on a large scale, the central bank can use policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and medium - term lending facilities to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system [40]. 3. Three Stages of Debt Resolution 3.1 Types of Local Government Bonds for Debt Resolution - There have been three types of local government bonds for debt resolution in history, and two types are still being issued. Replacement bonds (issued from 2015 - 2019) were used to replace non - government bond - form local government stock debts; special refinancing bonds (initially issued in 2020) are used to repay local government stock implicit debts; new local government special bonds have been used for debt resolution since 2024, with 80 billion yuan allocated annually for five consecutive years [43]. 3.2 Three Stages of Debt Resolution - Replacement of non - government bonds (2015 - 2018): Through the issuance of replacement bonds, most of the non - government bond - form debts such as loans and corporate bonds were converted into legal debts, laying the foundation for the local bond management system [46]. - Resolution of implicit debts (since 2017): After the concept of "implicit debt" was proposed in 2017, relevant policies were issued to start the process of implicit debt resolution. Special refinancing bonds have been used to resolve implicit debts, and some regions have achieved zero implicit debts [47]. - Expansion of the replacement scope: The replacement scope of replacement bonds has expanded to areas outside of implicit debts, such as repaying government - owed enterprise accounts and dealing with government - owed payments in PPP contracts [49]. 4. Investor Structure of Local Government Bonds As of the end of August 2025, investors in the inter - bank bond market held 50.77 trillion yuan of local government bonds, accounting for 95.78%. Among them, commercial banks held 37.68 trillion yuan, accounting for 71.08% [52]. 5. Investment Recommendations 5.1 Compression Opportunities for Current Local Government Bond Spreads - The implementation of debt - resolution policies and the improvement of liquidity have increased the possibility of local government bond spread compression. Currently, the spreads of 3Y, 20Y, and 30Y local government bonds are at relatively high historical levels, and there may be room for compression [56][59]. 5.2 Attention to "Flying" Bonds - "Flying" bonds refer to bonds with unexpectedly high issuance interest rates. The spreads of "flying" bonds generally show a narrowing trend after issuance. In 2025 (as of the third quarter), there were 27 local government bonds with a spread of 30BP or more, mostly with a term of 15 years and mainly new special bonds [66][67].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Province is actively advancing local debt resolution through various methods, achieving phased results, including a significant reduction in platform numbers and some regions reaching dual clearance of debts [1][5]. Group 1: Debt Management in Zhejiang Province - Zhejiang Province is utilizing strategies such as securing higher-level funding, issuing special refinancing bonds, and controlling project investments to enhance debt management and has seen initial success [2]. - In 2024, Zhejiang secured 69.764 billion yuan in special long-term bonds and 327.9 billion yuan in new special bonds, with 290.1 billion yuan allocated for project construction, accounting for 9.1% of the national total [2]. - The provincial government is gradually implementing plans for replacing hidden debts, with a total debt limit of 244.2 billion yuan set for 2024, distributed over three years [2]. Group 2: Investment Control Measures - Several cities in Zhejiang, including Jiaxing and Taizhou, have publicly committed to controlling project investments to manage new debt risks [3]. - The focus is on prioritizing essential projects while re-evaluating non-urgent projects to reduce future funding pressures [3]. - New project approvals are being scrutinized, with a strong emphasis on avoiding non-essential projects and ensuring alignment with fiscal budgets [3]. Group 3: Financial Indicators of Urban Investment Enterprises - The debt scale of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang continues to grow, but the growth rate has slowed, with long-term debt remaining predominant [23]. - As of June 2025, the debt growth rate decreased from 22.55% in 2023 to 8.53% [23]. - The financing structure has improved, with bank loans becoming the primary source of financing, accounting for nearly 70% of total financing by June 2025 [26]. Group 4: Cash Flow and Receivables - Urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang have maintained a net inflow of cash from financing activities, with significant inflows reported in cities like Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Jiaxing [16][20]. - However, the growth rate of accounts receivable has been increasing, indicating ongoing challenges in cash collection [12][15]. - The cash income ratio for urban investment enterprises has shown positive performance, reflecting better cash collection from certain business segments despite overall project settlement delays [14]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - Zhejiang Province faces significant regional disparities in debt management, with some areas continuing to experience increased accounts receivable and cash flow pressures [5][34]. - The investment growth rate is slowing, particularly in infrastructure projects, which, combined with cash collection challenges, indicates that the internal debt repayment capacity of urban investment enterprises has not improved substantially [34]. - As a major economic province, Zhejiang must balance the hard task of debt resolution with the new requirements for high-quality development, necessitating a comprehensive approach to enhance operational efficiency and risk resilience in urban investment enterprises [34].