地方政府与城投企业债务风险 研究报告－广西篇 联合资信 公用评级四部 | 孙婧 陈帅 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 广西壮族自治区沿海沿江沿边，是中国西南地区最便捷的出海通道，是连接粤港澳与西部地 区的重要通道、"一带一路"有机衔接的重要门户、面向东盟开放合作的"桥头堡"、西部陆 海新通道核心枢纽，资源禀赋优势明显。2024 年，广西经济保持增长，进出口贸易是经济增 长主要驱动力，但 GDP 增速低于全国平均水平；地区生产总值、人均 GDP 及一般公共预算 收入在全国排名靠后，城镇化率较低。广西债务负担偏重，稳定增长的上级补助对综合财力 提供了有力支撑。 广西各地级市经济实力分化明显，南宁市经济发展水平、人口规模、城镇化率均处于领先地 位，柳州市、桂林市和玉林市紧随其后；2024 年，柳州市经济增长承压，GDP 增速落后于其 他地级市。产业结构方面，除百色市、北海市、崇左市和防城港市产业结构以第二产业为主 外，其他地级市产业结构均以第三产业为主，且第一产业普遍占比偏高。受房地产市场持续 低迷影响，大部分地市政府性基金收入出现不同程 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of October, the total social financing scale reached 437.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.83 trillion yuan [3] - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.13 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [3] Group 2: Loan and Interest Rate Trends - The balance of RMB loans reached 270.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and an increase of 14.97 trillion yuan in loans during the first ten months [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, approximately 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, while the average interest rate for new personal housing loans was also 3.1%, about 8 basis points lower year-on-year [3] Group 3: Trade and Economic Development - In the first ten months of the year, Shanghai's import and export volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%, with exports amounting to 1.6 trillion yuan, up by 10.5% [7] - The Shanghai Free Trade Zone has implemented 80 reform measures for institutional openness, with 77 measures being replicated nationwide or in other free trade zones [9] - ASEAN has maintained its position as China's largest trading partner for agricultural and food products for eight consecutive years, with bilateral trade reaching 513 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [9] Group 4: Infrastructure and Technological Advancements - China completed water conservancy construction investments of 1,009.47 billion yuan in the first ten months, implementing 46,000 various water conservancy projects [10] - The first phase of 6G technology testing has been completed, with over 300 key technology reserves formed, and 57 tests conducted in five major technical directions [10]

广义货币（M_2）和社会融资规模增速保持较高水平、贷款规模合理增长、信贷结构持续优化、贷 款利率保持低位……中国人民银行11月13日公布的10月份金融统计数据报告显示，适度宽松的货币政策 持续显效，货币金融条件相对宽松，我国经济高质量发展有着坚实支撑。 融资渠道日益多元 初步统计，今年10月末社会融资规模存量为437.72万亿元，同比增长8.5%；前10个月社会融资规模 增量累计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。 据市场人士测算，今年前10个月，政府债券累计发行规模约22万亿元，比去年同期多近4万亿元， 企业发债融资也高于去年同期。"国债和特殊再融资债券等政府债券发行进度较快、企业债券发行热度 较高，对社会融资规模增长形成重要支撑。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，今年超长期特别国债 发行规模从去年的1万亿元扩大至1.3万亿元，首发时间比去年提前约一个月，发行完毕时间也相应提 前，体现出财政政策对经济增长及需求拉动的支持，也带动了社会融资规模增长。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，加大政府债券发行规模，能够支持重大项目建设和国家重大 战略实施，助力扩大需求、支撑经济。同时，不少政府债券用于置换融 ...

伴随经济金融结构变迁，当前企业融资渠道已从过去更多依赖于银行贷款，转变为综合运用债券、股票 等更丰富的市场化融资方式。 11月13日，中国人民银行发布《2025年10月金融统计数据报告》，2025年前十个月社会融资规模增量累 计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加14.52万亿元，同 比少增1.16万亿元；企业债券净融资1.82万亿元，同比多1361亿元；政府债券净融资11.95万亿元，同比 多3.72万亿元。 可以看出，在今年以来的社会融资规模增量中，除贷款外的其他融资方式已经占比超过一半，政府债券 净融资占比已经接近四成。今年以来，国债、地方债和特殊再融资债券等政府债券发行进度较快、企业 债券发行热度较高，在对社融增长形成重要支撑的同时，也对扩内需、保民生、促发展发挥了积极作 用。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬告诉记者，社会融资规模的结构正在逐渐发生变化，单一的贷款指标， 已很难完整反映金融支持实体经济的全貌。特别是近两年，地方专项债置换融资平台贷款、中小银行改 革化险与中长期经济结构演变的趋势叠加，进一步阶段性下拉了贷款增长。因此，应更多关注社融、货 币供应 ...

中国人民银行11月13日发布的10月金融数据显示，广义货币(M2)和社会融资规模同比增速均保持在较 高水平，持续为经济回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境；贷款规模保持合理增长，信贷结构持续优化。 专家表示，未来央行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把握好力度和节奏，保持对实体经济较强支持 力度。 政府债券带动社融增长 贷款结构持续优化 10月金融总量保持合理增长，为实体经济提供有力有效的金融支撑。从物价角度看，支持性货币政策促 进物价回升的效果将持续显现。 社融方面，10月末社会融资规模存量为437.72万亿元，同比增长8.5%；前10个月社会融资规模增量累计 为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。 "国债和特殊再融资债券等政府债券发行进度较快、企业债券发行热度较高，均对社会融资规模增长形 成重要支撑。"专家分析称。 据市场人士测算，今年1-10月，政府债券累计发行规模约22万亿元，比去年同期多近4万亿元，企业发 债融资也高于去年同期。"2025年超长期特别国债发行规模从去年的1万亿元扩大至1.3万亿元，首发时 间比去年提前约一个月，发行完毕时间也相应提前，体现出财政对经济增长及需求拉动的支持，也带动 了社 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in October, both the broad money supply (M2) and the social financing scale maintained a high year-on-year growth rate, creating a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [1] Group 1: Social Financing - As of the end of October, the total social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%. The cumulative increase in the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The issuance of government bonds, including special refinancing bonds, has accelerated, significantly supporting the growth of social financing. In the first ten months of this year, the cumulative issuance of government bonds was approximately 22 trillion yuan, nearly 4 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The M2 balance at the end of October was 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, growing by 6.2% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Loan Structure - The balance of RMB loans at the end of October was 270.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%. In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan [3] - The structure of loans is continuously optimizing, with inclusive small and micro loans at 35.77 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector at 14.97 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was 3.1%, approximately 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, while the average interest rate for new personal housing loans was also 3.1%, about 8 basis points lower year-on-year [3] Group 3: Price Recovery - The financial total in October maintained reasonable growth, providing strong financial support for the real economy. Supportive monetary policy is expected to continue promoting price recovery [4] - The growth rates of social financing scale and M2 have consistently remained above 8%, exceeding the nominal GDP growth rate by about 4 percentage points [4] - The effects of previous monetary policy adjustments are expected to continue to manifest, with the need for ongoing implementation of moderately loose monetary policy to maintain strong support for the real economy [5]

21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 伴随经济金融结构变迁，当前企业融资渠道已从过去更多依赖于银行贷款， 转变为综合运用债券、股票等更丰富的市场化融资方式。 11月13日，中国人民银行发布《2025年10月金融统计数据报告》，2025年前十个月社会融资规模增量累 计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加14.52万亿元，同 比少增1.16万亿元；企业债券净融资1.82万亿元，同比多1361亿元；政府债券净融资11.95万亿元，同比 多3.72万亿元。 可以看出，在今年以来的社会融资规模增量中，除贷款外的其他融资方式已经占比超过一半，政府债券 净融资占比已经接近四成。今年以来，国债、地方债和特殊再融资债券等政府债券发行进度较快、企业 债券发行热度较高，在对社融增长形成重要支撑的同时，也对扩内需、保民生、促发展发挥了积极作 用。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬告诉记者，社会融资规模的结构正在逐渐发生变化，单一的贷款指标， 已很难完整反映金融支持实体经济的全貌。特别是近两年，地方专项债置换融资平台贷款、中小银行改 革化险与中长期经济结构演变的趋势叠加，进一步阶段性下拉了贷款增长。因此， ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth, with a focus on precision and efficiency in implementation [1][2][8]. Fiscal Policy Support for Economic Development - The necessity for enhanced fiscal policy support during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, particularly to maintain an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 4.5% to achieve long-term strategic goals by 2035 [2][3]. - The fiscal policy aims to address challenges such as population decline, economic restructuring, and external pressures by increasing spending and optimizing expenditure [2][3]. Investment in Key Areas - Significant investment is required in critical sectors such as modern industrial systems, technological self-reliance, and green transformation, which necessitates substantial public investment led by fiscal policy [3][4]. - Fiscal funding is essential to fill investment gaps and leverage private capital through risk-sharing mechanisms [3]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, requiring fiscal measures to enhance consumer confidence and investment willingness [4][5]. - Fiscal policy will focus on optimizing spending and improving social security to stabilize expectations and promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4]. Promoting Social Equity - The plan aims to advance common prosperity through fiscal measures that address income distribution and enhance social welfare systems [5][6]. - Fiscal policy will play a crucial role in reducing disparities and ensuring equitable resource allocation [5]. Addressing Uncertainties - The fiscal policy must maintain necessary spending levels to counteract increasing uncertainties and risks, including economic downturns and external shocks [6][7]. - A proactive fiscal approach is essential to provide a stable foundation for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. Focus Areas for Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain a proactive stance, with an expected deficit rate of 3.8% to 4.0%, potentially rising to over 4.2% during significant shocks [8][9]. - Annual issuance of long-term special bonds is projected at around 1.5 trillion yuan, targeting key areas such as technological innovation and social welfare [9][10]. Deepening Fiscal and Tax Reforms - The plan includes reforms to enhance fiscal sustainability and clarify the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [10][11]. - Measures will be taken to improve local tax systems and reduce reliance on land finance, while also addressing local government debt issues [10][11]. Managing Local Government Debt - The strategy outlines a phased approach to resolving existing local government debt, with an annual issuance of special bonds estimated between 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan [11]. - Efforts will focus on categorizing and managing debt risks while enhancing local fiscal capabilities [11].

Core Viewpoint - The central government has introduced a comprehensive debt reduction initiative, "6+4+2," aimed at resolving 12 trillion yuan of hidden local government debt over five years, with a focus on ensuring that debt management supports economic development rather than hindering it [1][9]. Debt Reduction Measures - The National People's Congress has approved significant debt reduction measures, including increasing the local government special debt limit by 6 trillion yuan for debt replacement, allocating 800 billion yuan annually for five years from new local government bonds specifically for debt reduction, and ensuring that 2 trillion yuan of hidden debt due after 2029 is repaid as per original contracts [2][4]. Impact on Local Government Debt - Following the implementation of the "6+4+2" policy, local hidden debt has significantly decreased from 14.3 trillion yuan at the end of the previous year to 10.5 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, marking a 27% reduction [4]. - As of September 28, 2025, nearly 3.2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds and new special bonds have been issued for debt reduction, exceeding the initial target of 2.8 trillion yuan [4][5]. Investment Efficiency Concerns - Some local governments have experienced a decline in investment efficiency during the debt reduction process, leading to economic contraction. The issuance of new special bonds for project construction has slowed, resulting in a decrease in funds available for infrastructure projects [6][7]. - For instance, from January to August this year, approximately 1.94 trillion yuan in new special bond funds were allocated to infrastructure projects, a reduction of nearly 200 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [6]. Structural Challenges - Analysts highlight structural contradictions in the debt reduction process, such as a scarcity of quality projects and declining investment returns, which hinder local governments from effectively utilizing available funds [7][8]. - The cautious approach of local governments, driven by stringent regulations and accountability measures, has led to delays in project approvals and a reluctance to initiate new projects, further exacerbating the issue of underutilized funds [8]. Long-term Strategies - To achieve sustainable local debt management, a shift from short-term crisis management to long-term structural reforms is necessary. This includes enhancing the fiscal system, clarifying responsibilities between central and local governments, and establishing a transparent municipal bond issuance mechanism [11][12]. - Emphasizing economic development over mere debt reduction is crucial for maintaining fiscal sustainability, with a focus on investing in high-return sectors such as technology innovation and green energy [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported significant growth in credit and social financing in the first three quarters, indicating strong financial support for the real economy, with a notable shift towards direct financing channels [1][2][4]. Group 1: Credit and Social Financing - In the first three quarters, new RMB loans increased by approximately 14.75 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of about 1.29 trillion yuan in September [4]. - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan by the end of September, growing by 8.7% year-on-year, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [2]. - Direct financing has become a significant contributor to social financing, with government bonds net financing reaching about 11.46 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2: Monetary Supply and Loan Structure - By the end of September, M2 grew by 8.4% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 7.2%, indicating a recovery in corporate and consumer demand [3]. - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to 1.2%, reflecting improved business activity and a rebound in personal consumption [3]. - The proportion of RMB loans in the total social financing increment fell to 48.3%, with over half of the new social financing coming from diverse channels such as government and corporate bonds [2]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Key industries like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintained strong growth, driving corporate financing demand [5]. - The implementation of personal consumption loan subsidies and adjustments in housing purchase policies in major cities have led to a recovery in personal loan demand, particularly in the real estate sector [6][7]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans remained low at around 3.1%, which is significantly lower than the previous year [7]. Group 4: Non-Bank Deposits and Market Dynamics - In the first three quarters, RMB deposits increased by 22.71 trillion yuan, with non-bank financial institution deposits growing faster than household deposits [8]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to a reallocation of assets by residents in response to changing return rates, rather than a direct correlation with stock market fluctuations [8].