Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Chang-yong, indicated that four members of the monetary policy committee may consider interest rate cuts within the next three months, while two members expect the policy rate to remain unchanged during the same period [1] Group 1 - The possibility of interest rate cuts is being discussed among four members of the monetary policy committee [1] - Two members of the committee anticipate that the policy rate will stay the same over the next three months [1]

美联储内部对通胀持续性的担忧正在加剧，这可能让市场对年内降息的预期落空。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利最新发布的研报显示，美联储6月会议纪要显示官员们对通胀持续性的担忧加剧，多数参会者认为关税可能导致持续通胀 并带来预期失稳风险，这一表态比主席鲍威尔在6月记者会上的立场更为鹰派。摩根士丹利预测美联储今年不会降息，但2026年将降息175个基点。 关税担忧超预期 通胀风险仍是主要考量 今年6月，美联储利率决议仍然按兵不动后，鲍威尔在记者会上表示，关税对通胀的影响可能会更加顽固，预计未来数月将出现一定幅度的通胀压力上 升。关税的总体影响有多大、会持续多久、什么时候完全体现出来，都非常不确定。他对就业市场情况满意，表示"劳动力市场并没有在呼吁降息。" 在摩根士丹利看来，这一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的会议纪要更为"鹰派"，而支撑鹰派观点的最关键内容仍然是——通胀。"大多数参与者"仍然 认为关税可能导致通胀持续，并有破坏通胀预期稳定的风险。 会议纪要指出，在讨论通胀前景时，参与者注意到关税增加可能对价格造成上行压力。然而，这些影响的时机、规模和持续时间存在相当大的不确定性。 该投行估计，当前有效关税税率约为17 ...

晨会纪要 2025 年 7 月 10 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/10 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農あ | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 锌 | 多晶硅 | 燃油 | | | | 苹果 | 上证50股指期货 | 沥青 | | | | 红枣 | 中证500股指期货 | 氧化铝 | | | | 纯碱 | 工业硅 | 三十债 | | | | 锰硅 | 中证1000指数期货 | 橡胶 | | | | 塑料 | 沪深300股指期货 | 尿素 | | | | 硅铁 | 铝 | 稼校 | | | | 甲醇 | 棉花 | 玻璃 | | | | | 十债 | 焦炭 | | | | | 五债 | 焦煤 | | | | | 白糖 | 对二甲苯 | | | | | 棉纱 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 10 日 铜：库存增加，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,400 | -1.53% | 78330 | -0.09% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,660 | -0.05% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 162,594 | 101,331 | 193,999 | -13,383 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 38,198 | 18,122 | 280,000 | 2,552 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 21,336 | 2,227 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 107,125 | 4,625 | 35.71% | -0.49% | | | | | 昨日 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, but further progress remains uncertain, impacting corporate earnings and capital inflow [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,892 points, down 1.06% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.76% [6] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation [5][8] - China's June CPI unexpectedly rose by 0.1%, ending four months of deflation, while PPI fell by 3.6%, the largest drop in two years [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission estimates China's economy could reach 140 trillion yuan this year, emphasizing the importance of innovation in economic growth [9] Corporate News - New World Development is reportedly seeking to sell its K11 properties in Hangzhou and Shenzhen, aiming to attract investment from private firms [10] - Longfor Group's debt restructuring plan has been approved by creditors, allowing for adjustments in repayment arrangements [11] - BYD has achieved significant advancements in smart parking technology, promising comprehensive safety coverage for users [10] Sector Focus - Macau's June gaming revenue exceeded expectations, indicating a strong recovery as the summer peak season approaches [7] - The online music sector faces intensified competition, prompting a potential shift of funds towards more visible tech stocks [7] - The global PC shipment volume increased by 6.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with Lenovo leading the market share at 24.8% [9]

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Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea will maintain its stance on interest rate cuts to alleviate the downward risks facing economic growth, with expectations of gradual recovery in consumption due to improved economic confidence and the implementation of supplementary budgets [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea is adjusting the timing and pace of future interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3500 points before retreating, indicating a generally stable market trend [1] - The VIX index calculated from the SSE 50 and CSI 300 ETF options has not shown a significant upward spike, suggesting a lower risk of sharp market fluctuations in the future [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive at 0.10% year-on-year, with a core CPI of 0.70%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.10% month-on-month [3] - The rise in CPI is attributed to seasonal weather effects, with vegetable prices increasing and a notable recovery in international oil prices impacting domestic energy prices [3] - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with beef prices rising by 2.7% after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5% [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - Due to ongoing pressures on CPI and PPI from consumer confidence and international trade risks, there is potential for a 10 basis point interest rate cut by the central bank in Q4, lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.3% [4] - This could create more space in the bond market, with investors advised to focus on government bond ETFs [4] Group 4: International Economic Developments - The recent signing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. has expanded the deficit, with implications for various sectors, including traditional energy, manufacturing, and real estate, which may benefit from tax advantages [4] - The impact on A-shares remains unclear, but potential fiscal expansion in the U.S. could enhance demand for Chinese exports, particularly capital goods and equipment [4]

说到美联储，最新的会议纪要显示，多数官员认为今年适度降息是合适的，但他们也强调要保持耐心。这意味着降息可能会来，但不会太快。市场现在 对7月底的会议充满期待，要是真降息了，对股市和债市都是个利好。不过，特朗普一直在施压美联储，说利率高了3个点，让美国多花了3600亿美元。 这也给美联储的决策增加了不少压力。 美股方面，标普结束了两连跌，英伟达更是风光无限，市值一度突破4万亿美元，成为全球首家达到这个里程碑的公司。这背后是AI行业的持续火爆，微 软、Meta这些大客户对AI的投入越来越大。不过，英伟达的股价也不是一帆风顺，年初还因为各种因素跌到了86美元，现在又涨回来了近90%。这说明 只要行业趋势不变，优质公司的长期价值还是很值得期待的。 各位老铁，我是帮主郑重，一位在财经江湖摸爬滚打了20年的老记者，现在转型做中长线投资。今天咱们来聊聊隔夜的全球市场大事件，看看这些消息 背后藏着哪些投资机会。 先给大家划个重点，特朗普又搞事情了，这次把矛头对准了巴西。他宣布从8月1日起对所有巴西产品征收50%的关税，这可比4月份的10%高出不少。巴 西那边反应很激烈，副总统直接说这是不公平的，总统卢拉更是放话要对等反击。要 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京7月10日电 美债收益率周三（9日）多数走低，此前多数美联储官员暗示预计即将降息。最新公布的会议纪要凸显了美联储 官员公开讲话中已经很明显的分歧，而美国总统特朗普正在对众多产品和贸易伙伴提高进口税的不可预测举措，则加大了官员们对美国 经济将如何回应的分歧。 据美国财政部数据，截至当天收盘，2年期美债收益率下跌4BPs至3.86%；10年期美债收益率下跌8BPs至4.34%，30年期美债收益率下跌 7BPs至4.87%。2年期与10年期美债收益率利差周三收窄至48BPs。 关税方面，特朗普周二表示，他将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税。他在社交媒体上发布的信件显示，关税税率从20%到40% 不等，将于8月1日生效。 这将是特朗普在第二任期内第四次全面征收关税。目前，大多数进口汽车和汽车零部件面临25%的关税，而进口钢铁和铝都面临50%的 关税。 当地时间周三下午公布的美联储6月会议纪要显示，尽管政策制定者一致投票决定暂时维持利率不变，但在未来政策应如何推进的问题 上，分歧也越来越大。 一方面，一些人认为通货膨胀已经足够温和，有理由降息；另一方面，一些成员更担心关税可能会推高消费 ...