1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price in a callback trend [16] - US Dollar: Short - term oscillation [20] - Chinese Stock Index Futures: Long - position balanced allocation for each index [23] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term high - level shock adjustment, with a bullish view considering profit support [27] - Treasury Bond Futures: Recently, the bond market is slightly bullish with limited upside, and long - positions should consider rhythm and odds [29] - Sugar: Chinese sugar market to oscillate, strict control on syrup and powder imports and reduced Q4 imports [34] - Steel: Adopt an oscillating approach to steel prices [41] - Live Pigs: Short - sell 03 contract after a sharp rebound, and keep an eye on long - positions in far - month contracts [44] - Red Dates: Wait and see, focus on price negotiation and acquisition progress in production areas [47] - Oils: If no major negative news, consider long - positions; wait for market sentiment to stabilize if negative [48] - Corn Starch: Band - trading [51] - Corn: 01 contract to oscillate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the long - term; be cautious about far - month contracts [53] - Thermal Coal: Price to remain strong in the short - term, watch policy changes after breaking through $800 [55] - Iron Ore: Downside space limited, consider negotiation and coking coal valuation [56] - Coking Coal/Coke: Short - term oscillation, watch for risks from declining hot metal production [57] - Copper: Oscillation, consider buying on dips [60] - Polysilicon: If the contract price corrects to par or discount to spot, consider long - positions; beware of options risks this weekend [63] - Industrial Silicon: Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [65] - Lead: Short - term strength, be cautious about chasing long; positive spread arbitrage available; be cautious in external trading [69] - Zinc: Speculative long - positions take profit on rallies; observe positive spread arbitrage opportunities; wait and see for external trading [74] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term wide - range oscillation; consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [79] - Nickel: Wait and see for speculative single - side trading; bet on valuation recovery after risk release [81] - Crude Oil: Price to oscillate [85] - Asphalt: Short - term weak oscillation [87] - Methanol: Holders of short - positions add short after the rebound ends; conservative investors take profit [89] - Pulp: Limited upside space [90] - Urea: Oscillation due to sentiment support [92] - Caustic Soda: Short - term weak oscillation [94] - Soda Ash: Downside space depends on coal price and new capacity; bearish in the medium - term [95] - Float Glass: Wait and see due to intense market game [97] - Container Freight Rates: Short - sell after the rally [99] 2. Core Views of the Report - The US ADP employment data in October exceeded expectations, indicating a short - term recovery in the labor market, but the economic downward pressure persists, and the US dollar maintains an oscillating trend [2][19] - In the context of a global stock market correction, the A - share market showed unexpected resilience, and the stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level [3][22] - The prices of steel, copper, and other commodities are affected by factors such as macro - expectations, fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends [5][6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, both better than expected [14][15] - Gold prices rebounded slightly, and the market is waiting for the end of the US government shutdown. Gold is expected to consolidate and approach the 60 - day moving average [15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump blamed the government shutdown for the Democratic victory in local elections [17] - The US Supreme Court questioned the legality of Trump's tariff policy [18] - The ADP employment data exceeded expectations, but the economic downward pressure continues, and the US dollar maintains an oscillating trend [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China will firmly promote high - level opening - up [21] - The A - share market showed resilience, and the stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level [22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, and the ISM services PMI reached a new high [25][26] - The US economic data remained resilient, and the stock market's risk appetite recovered [26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 65.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan [28] - The bond market's upward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate. Long - positions should consider rhythm and odds [29] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's 2025/26 sugar production season has started, and Brazil's sugar production estimate has been raised [30][31] - The expected high - yield of the two major producers has increased concerns about global supply surplus, which is negative for the market [34] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail sales of passenger cars in October increased year - on - year and month - on - month [35] - Steel prices continued to be weak, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in November - December [40] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The project of Wens Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary passed the environmental assessment, and Dabeinong signed a regulatory agreement [42][43] - The short - term spot market is bullish, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [43] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The acquisition of red dates in Xinjiang is progressing, and the futures price declined [45][46] - The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [47] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 12.31% month - on - month [48] - The market expects inventory accumulation in October. Pay attention to actual data and November's high - frequency supply - demand data [48] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机率 of corn starch enterprises increased, and the inventory slightly rose [49][51] - The inventory pressure is expected to be acceptable in January, and enterprises may maintain profitability [51] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn is generally stable, with some regional differences [51] - Substitute supply is expected to increase, and the 01 contract may oscillate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the long - term [52][53] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The international thermal coal price was strong on November 5, and the domestic price has risen recently [54][55] - The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and watch policy changes after breaking through $800 [55] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The demand for concrete weakened slightly, and iron ore prices oscillated weakly [56] - The downside space is limited, considering negotiation and coking coal valuation [56] 3.2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in Linfen Anze was strong [57] - The short - term market is tight, but the hot metal production has peaked, and it may oscillate [57] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's Codelco's copper production in the first nine months increased by 2.1% year - on - year [58] - The short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and copper prices are expected to oscillate [60] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The number of photovoltaic component project bids decreased last week, and the price of polysilicon was under pressure [61][62] - November is a critical point of policy and fundamental game. Consider long - positions on dips if the contract price corrects [63] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan decreased, and the inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November [64] - Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [65] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the domestic lead price trended upward [69] - The short - term supply is slowly recovering, and pay attention to delivery risks; consider short - selling at high levels in the long - term [69] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc showed a premium, and the domestic zinc production is expected to decline in November - December [73] - Zinc prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and need demand improvement for further rise [73] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Hainan Mining's lithium concentrate has been shipped, and EVE Energy signed a cooperation agreement [75][76] - The short - term price may oscillate widely, and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [79] 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Minmetals' acquisition of a nickel business entered the second - stage review [80] - The short - term price may be under pressure, and bet on valuation recovery after risk release [81] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Kazakhstan's oil field production decreased due to maintenance, and the EIA crude oil inventory increased [82][84] - Oil prices are expected to oscillate [85] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt decreased [86] - The asphalt price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [87] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The Chinese methanol port inventory increased slightly [88] - The rebound does not indicate a fundamental reversal. Holders of short - positions add short after the rebound ends [89] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price was stable, and the futures price rose [90] - The upward space of the pulp price is limited [90] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased, and the price oscillated upward due to export quota rumors [91] - The urea price may oscillate due to sentiment support [92] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased locally, and the inventory decreased [93][94] - The caustic soda price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [94] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price in Shahe oscillated, and the demand may be affected in the short - term [95] - The soda ash price may decline in the medium - term, and the short - term downside space depends on coal price and new capacity [95] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in Shahe increased slightly, and the market game is intense [96][97] - It is recommended to wait and see due to intense market game [97] 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Shipping companies adjusted European - route freight rates [98] - The container freight rate may rise in the short - term, and consider short - selling after the rally [99]

Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government has entered its longest shutdown in history, lasting 36 days, disrupting normal operations due to funding exhaustion [1] - The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has run out of funds, affecting approximately 42 million people, or one-eighth of the U.S. population, most of whom are below the poverty line [1] - Food assistance sites are experiencing increased demand, with long lines forming as people either have not received benefits or are concerned about future payments [2] Group 2: Heating Assistance - A program designed to subsidize heating costs for low-income families, costing $4.1 billion, may face delays in fund distribution due to the shutdown, impacting around 5.9 million households [3] - Experts warn that if the shutdown continues, thousands may face life-threatening cold conditions as winter approaches [3] Group 3: Aviation Safety - The U.S. Transportation Secretary has warned that if the shutdown extends for another week, air traffic may face significant disruptions, including potential airspace closures due to staff shortages [4] - Since the shutdown began, thousands of air traffic controllers and security personnel have been working without pay, leading to widespread flight delays and cancellations, affecting over 3.2 million travelers [5] Group 4: Military Pay - The federal government has managed to secure funds for military pay for two pay periods since the shutdown began, totaling $5.3 billion from various sources [6] - The next military pay date is set for November 15, and if the shutdown persists, military personnel may not receive their salaries [8] Group 5: Federal Employees - Approximately 750,000 federal employees have been placed on temporary leave or are working without pay due to the shutdown [9] - If the situation continues until December 1, the federal government could accumulate unpaid wages totaling $21 billion [9]

美国联邦政府5日进入"停摆"第36天，打破先前35天的纪录，成为美国历史上持续时间最长的政府"停摆"。联邦政府机构因资金耗尽无法正常运 转，负面影响持续扩散。这次史上最长"停摆"，对美国民生、社会造成了哪些伤害？ 美国联邦食品救济项目"补充营养援助计划"10月31日耗尽资金。该项目覆盖约4200万人，约占全美总人口的八分之一，大多数人收入低于贫困 线。 在联邦法官介入后，美国农业部3日表示，将动用应急资金维持本月一半救济金的发放，但一些州或需要数周甚至数月才能恢复发放。 然而，美国总统特朗普4日在社交媒体上发文称，这些数千万低收入民众急需的救济金"只有在激进左翼民主党人给政府开门之后才能发放"。白宫 新闻秘书莱维特随后表示，联邦政府会依照法院裁决发放救济金。 近日，美国多地的食品救济站和免费食物发放处前排起长队，前来领取食物的人明显多于以往。他们要么没有收到食品救济金，要么担心这笔钱 未来会停发。还有一些人担心，救济金发放延迟会影响本月下旬的感恩节。 冬季采暖 随着气温持续下降，美国多个州发出警告，由于"停摆"，一项用于补贴低收入家庭取暖费用的福利项目资金恐将延迟发放。 美联社报道说，这个耗资41亿美元的"低 ...

新华社华盛顿11月5日电（记者杨伶 熊茂伶）美国政府"停摆"5日进入创纪录的第36天。交通部长达菲 表示，如果"停摆"持续，交通部将从7日开始削减全美40座繁忙机场10%的运输量，以降低国家空域风 险。 达菲当天在首都华盛顿一场新闻发布会上宣布这一举措。他说，这40座机场的压力正与日俱增，交通部 不能坐等安全问题出现。他将于当天晚些时候与一些航空运营商高层会面，商讨如何安全实施运力削减 举措。 据航班追踪网站数据，4日美国境内以及进出美国的航班延误近4300架次，其中151架次取消。达菲4日 表示，情况可能会恶化，因为政府"停摆"短期内没有结束迹象，空管员一直领不到工资。他警告说，随 着11月下旬感恩节假期临近，将出现航班大规模延误甚至取消，届时，出于安全考虑，美国交通部可能 不得不关闭部分空域，因为"根本无法控制局面"。 美国各大航空运营商、航空业界工会和旅游业界一直敦促国会两党就联邦政府临时拨款法案达成协议， 以结束政府"停摆"。本周早些时候，美国旅游协会致信国会领导人说，担心如果政府"停摆"持续到假日 旅游旺季，情况可能变得更糟。 责编：张荣耀、卢思宇 "在我从事航空交通工作的35年经历中，之前从未遇到 ...

今晚美股三大指数低开高走，特朗普又出来"画K线"了。 一起看看发生了什么事情。 特朗普改口 11月5日晚间，美股三大指数上涨。道指接近 平盘，以科技股为主的纳指盘中拉升，涨约0.7%，标普指数涨约0.4%。 消息面上，特朗普在与共和党参议员共进早餐时发表了讲话，指出政府停摆正在对股市产生负面影响。 他说，"我们必须尽快重新开放政府，立即行动。我们经济正处于历史最热的时期，这（政府停摆）也对股市产生了一些影响。但截至上周五，股市在过 去九个月中已创下多次新高，而且还会再创新高。这只是个开始，一旦美国目前正在建设的各类工厂开始投产，情况将更加不同。我们从未见过这样的繁 荣，这是一个大好机遇。" 此外，民主党轻松击败了弗吉尼亚和新泽西的共和党州长候选人，而民主社会主义者佐赫兰·曼达尼则击败了获得特朗普背书的安德鲁·科莫，成为纽约市 下一任市长。此结果显示选民对特朗普治下经济的不安，这可能为民主党在2026年中期选举中重新夺回国会控制权铺路。 特朗普将民主党在选举中的全面胜利归咎于政府停摆，并向共和党施压，要求废除参议院的"冗长辩论"（阻挠议事）规则，以便重开联邦机构并通过对邮 寄投票的新一轮限制措施。 特朗普称：" ...

We've also, as of midnight, entered day 36 of the government shutdown, a new milestone on the dysfunction of Washington, D. C. , with the longest shutdown on record.Has there been any movement to reopen the government. Well, we have gotten perhaps a glimmer of hope. We heard from Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who said that a potential off ramp seems to be coming together.But importantly, this is very fragile and it doesn't seem like the conversations have extended to the leadership level yet. But our u ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown is pushing financial markets towards a dangerous edge, with signs of potential progress in negotiations between the two parties in Congress [1][3] - The shutdown has reached its 36th day, breaking the previous record and causing significant economic impacts, including a projected GDP decline of 1-2 percentage points for Q4 [2][3] Market Impact - The shutdown has led to a liquidity crisis comparable to multiple interest rate hikes, with major sell-offs in risk assets, particularly in the tech and semiconductor sectors [1][4] - The Treasury's General Account (TGA) balance has surged from approximately $300 billion to over $1 trillion, indicating a withdrawal of over $700 billion from the market [4] Political Developments - Senate Majority Leader John Thune proposed a potential solution that combines a short-term funding bill with a vote on extending ACA subsidies, seen as a key step to break the deadlock [3][5] - Some Republican senators express optimism about reaching an agreement this week, particularly after local elections, which may pressure Democrats to soften their stance [6][5] Internal Party Dynamics - There are visible divisions within the Democratic Party regarding the approach to the shutdown, with moderate members considering a compromise that would reopen the government in exchange for future votes on ACA subsidies [7][8] - Progressive Democrats are opposed to this compromise, viewing it as a betrayal of working families, highlighting the internal conflict that could hinder negotiations [8]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its longest duration in history, entering its 36th day, surpassing the previous record of 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019 [2][4] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the shutdown continues for six weeks, the economic loss will rise to $11 billion, with a projected decline in the annual GDP growth rate of 1 to 2 percentage points for the fourth quarter [2][6] Economic Impact - The shutdown is expected to result in a $7 billion loss to the economy if it lasts four weeks, escalating to $11 billion at six weeks, and potentially reaching $14 billion if it extends to eight weeks [6] - The aviation sector is experiencing significant disruptions, with thousands of flights delayed, affecting over 3.2 million travelers since the shutdown began [7] Public Services and Welfare - Approximately 1.3 million air traffic controllers and 50,000 airport security personnel are working without pay, leading to staffing shortages and increased flight delays [7][8] - The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has ceased issuing benefits since November 1, impacting 42 million Americans, many of whom live below the poverty line [8][10] - The Affordable Care Act's enrollment for the new year has started, but due to the lack of agreement on government subsidies, insurance premiums are expected to rise significantly, with an estimated increase of $1,000 per enrollee annually without government support [8] Small Business Impact - The shutdown is also affecting small businesses, with approximately 320 small enterprises unable to access about $170 million in government-backed loans daily [11]

据凤凰卫视报道，11月4日，美国联邦政府停摆进入第35天，追平历史最长纪录，政治对抗加剧。特朗 普威胁取消参议院阻挠议事机制，引发对权力制衡遭削弱的担忧。与此同时，食品福利削减、联邦雇员 无薪、机场延误等问题不断叠加，民众普遍将责任指向共和党与白宫，"总统根本不听国会的意见，所 以现在国会说什么其实都无关紧要"。越来越多美国民众表示，他们对政府停摆感到厌倦和愤怒，认为 政治对抗正在伤害普通家庭，把基本公共服务当成谈判筹码。（凤凰卫视王骐、王添翼 华盛顿报道） ...

SHMET 网讯：民主党于周二在弗吉尼亚州和新泽西州的州长选举中获胜，重新夺回了政治势头。初步迹象表明，选民对特朗普第二任期内经济状况的 不安，可能为民主党在明年赢得国会控制权开辟道路。 阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格（Abigail Spanberger）在弗吉尼亚州州长竞选中轻松获胜，以及米基·谢里尔（Mikie Sherrill）在新泽西州的胜利，共同构成了民主党 自特朗普重返白宫以来最重要的选举胜利。 与此同时，在纽约市，自称民主社会主义者的佐赫兰·马姆达尼（Zohran Mamdani）预计将当选市长。 所有主要竞选活动的提前投票率都很高，尤其是在纽约市，该市投票率预计将达到数十年来的最高水平。 就民主党自身而言，在一年前被特朗普和共和党击败后，他们仍在试图寻找出路。尽管候选人的竞选纲领大多集中在经济和生活成本等相同议题上，但 这些选举也暴露了党内的意识形态裂痕。 斯潘伯格和谢里尔被视为中左翼民主党人。但在纽约市，选民选择了马姆达尼，他在通往胜利的道路上曾欣然与商界巨头交锋。与此同时，加州州长加 文·纽森（Gavin Newsom）则将其政治前途——包括可能入主白宫的竞选——押注于推动一项投票倡议，旨在重新划分 ...