2025年6月4日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 欧元区5月制造业PMN初值49.4，预期49.3，前值49; 欧元区5月服务业PMW初值48.9，预期50.3，前值50.1。欧元区5月综合PMWI值49.5. 预期50.7. 前值50.4。欧元区5月Sentix投资者信心指数 -8.1，预期 -11.5，前值 -19.5。 5月财新中国制造业采购经理指数 (PMI) 录得48.3, 较4月下降2.1个百分点，2024年10月来首次跌至临界点以下。 美国5月Markit制造业PMW值52.3，创三个月新高，预期49.9，前值50.2; 服务业PMM初值52.3，创下两个月新高，预期51, 前值50.8; 综合PMI初值 52.1,预期50.3, 前值50.6。 中心 美法院裁定特政府越权，宏观情绪上或有提振，但现货市场挺价上仍 较为疲软,中美贸易战的缓和势必在90天会产生抢运的情况,需要 关注本次法院裁定后的最终结果。综上述,我们认为,一需要关注 90天现货运价区间，二是关税政策缓和下终端需求的反馈，三是裁 定的最终结果。 6月3日主力合约2508收盘2100.2，涨幅为0.76%，成交量8.64万 手,持仓量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided documents. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC futures contracts show different price movements and trading volumes. For example, EC2508 had a 9.31% increase in price with a trading volume of 131,155 and an open interest increase of 2,813 [2]. - The month - to - month spreads of EC futures contracts also vary. For instance, the EC2506 - 2508 spread was - 323.0, with a day - on - day change of - 146.5 and a week - on - week change of 50.9 [2]. Shipping Indexes - Multiple shipping indexes are reported with their update frequencies, release dates, and changes. The Télat index decreased by 1.44% compared to the previous period, while the FBX11 index increased by 2.57% [2]. Capacity Arrangement - In June 2025, the weekly average shipping capacity is 297,300 TEU, with weekly capacities of 290,000, 290,000, 310,000, and 290,000 TEU respectively [2]. Recent Quotes on the European Line - In June, the average price in the first half - month is around $2,500 (equivalent to 1,770 points in the converted price). The MSK opening price is $2,100, and the Shanghai - Rotterdam price has risen to $2,383 [3]. News - On May 29, a US federal court blocked Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff from taking effect, ruling that it was an overstep of power. The Trump administration can appeal this decision [4]. - On May 30, the US White House submitted an Israel - supported cease - fire proposal to Hamas, aiming for a 60 - day cease - fire in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office denied reaching a cease - fire agreement [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2506 closely follows the spot freight rate and fluctuates within a range. The EC2508 may experience wide - range fluctuations (1900 - 2400 points) due to the shipping companies' price hikes in late June and July and the subsequent freight rate decline after the peak season, and it is recommended to wait and see. The EC2510 may be anchored to the lowest price of the year, and there are medium - to - long - term opportunities to short at high prices. The strategy is to hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread and pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 2510 contract at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of EC2506, EC2508, and EC2510 were 1,808.0, 2,131.0, and 1,392.4 respectively, with daily increases of 1.07%, 6.34%, and 0.90%. The trading volumes were 12,398, 131,155, and 20,291, and the open interests were 12,716, 46,578, and 24,224, with changes of - 3,230, 2,813, and 1,075 respectively [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1,247.05, down 1.4% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,719.79, up 18.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was 1,317, up 14.1% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was 3,275, up 6.0% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight**: The freight rates for 40'GP and 20'GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam or Antwerp of different carriers in June and July ranged from $1,358 - $3,260 for 40'GP and $1,467 - $2,305 for 20'GP [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.33, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.19 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Market Sentiment**: The container shipping index was strong. CMA CGM's price increase announcements for late June and July, along with the US court's "halt" of tariffs, boosted market sentiment. The short - selling funds had previously shorted based on the under - expected rush of exports on the US route and the delivery logic [14]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In the 23rd week, the mainstream shipping companies' FAK freight rates were revised to the range of $2,200 - $2,600/FEU, with an average of around $2,500/FEU, equivalent to about 1,750 points on the SCFIS index. Maersk's opening rate in the 24th week was $2,100/FEU, a slight decrease of $100/FEU compared to the previous period. COSCO's Shanghai rate in the 24th week was $2,800/FEU, up $200/FEU. There are still expectations for OA Alliance to announce price increases in the second half of June, with the expected price range of $3,000 - $3,500/FEU, and CMA CGM's expected price increase for July is around $4,100 - $4,200/FEU [14]. - **Capacity**: In the second half of June, the average capacity changed little but was more evenly distributed. In July, the weekly average capacity remained around 300,000 TEU/week after adjustments. On the US route, the weekly average capacity in June increased by 20% compared to May, and new routes were opened [15][17]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) was 0, indicating a neutral trend [19].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) has seen a significant increase, with a rise of over 9% and reaching a peak of 2189 points, driven by COSCO's announcement of increased freight rates for 40-foot containers from $2500 to $2700, indicating a positive trend in the short term for the shipping market [1][2]. Group 1: Shipping Market Dynamics - The current shipping market is characterized by a divergence between the European and American lines, with the European line facing challenges such as low demand momentum and low loading rates, limiting the potential for freight rate increases [2]. - Several shipping companies have attempted to raise rates on both the American and European lines, but market skepticism regarding the effectiveness of these price increases has emerged, particularly after previous failed attempts [2]. - The key to the shipping market's expectations lies in the growth rhythm of traditional peak season cargo volumes and the coordination of cross-route capacity adjustments, with a focus on the loading rates in the European line and cargo conversion efficiency in the American line [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the stability of spot freight rates will determine the trajectory of the shipping index (European line) in the short term, with a need to maintain current levels to solidify peak season expectations [2]. - The shipping market is entering a critical verification phase, where the actual performance of freight rates in early June will be crucial for future trends [2]. - There is a cautious outlook on the American line's "rush shipping" scale, with some analysts not optimistic about its impact on the European line, as recent data indicates a decrease in weekly capacity for the Shanghai-Northern Europe route [2].

1. Report Overview - Report Title: "Container Shipping Index Daily Report" [1] - Date: May 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot prices changed little, and the index decline may be due to the cooling of the rush - shipping expectation on the US route. Shipping companies have a willingness to support prices in June. The Maersk's online large - container quote on the European route exceeded market expectations, while most other shipping companies' quotes remained stable. The US line trade data declined, but the export peak - season rush shipping may not be falsified due to the time - lag effect of the Sino - US trade friction easing on May 12. The June contract should follow the delivery logic, and if the price increase is verified, it may have a small upward space. The far - month 08 and 10 contracts are mainly affected by the expectation of the US route rush shipping, and their price centers may rise if the June price is strong [8]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Spot prices were stable, and the index decline was related to the US route. Shipping companies' price - support intention in June was obvious. The 6 - month contract was based on delivery logic, and the far - month contracts were influenced by the US route rush - shipping expectation [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - From May 19th to 23rd, the China export container shipping market improved, with most long - haul routes' freight rates rising. In April, the industrial added - value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year. On May 23rd, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose by 7.2%. In the European route, the eurozone's economic recovery faced challenges, but the freight rate increased by 14.1%. The Mediterranean route's freight rate rose by 11.8%. The North American route was supported by Sino - US cooperation, and the freight rates to the US West and East increased by 6.0% and 5.3% respectively. The SCFI index rose for three consecutive weeks. Shipping companies planned to increase freight rates on the US and European routes in June. The EU's new policy on personal direct - mail parcels may impact the European small - package market [9][10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) 3.3.1集运现货价格 (Container Shipping Spot Prices) - From May 19th to May 26th, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) decreased by 1.4%, while that for the US West route (basic ports) increased by 18.9% [12]. 3.3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 (Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Quotes) - Provided the trading data of EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 contracts on May 27th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume [6]. 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 (Shipping - related Data Charts) - Included charts of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping futures contracts, global container capacity, container ship orders, and shipping freight rates [13][16][17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The extension of US - EU tariffs to July has led to high - level oscillations in the overall market, in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and wait for correction opportunities [1]. - Tariffs have become a means in trade negotiations, adding significant uncertainties to future shipping trends. While the easing of the China - US trade war may boost the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity in 90 days, price wars among alliances cannot be avoided. Attention should be paid to the US - bound shipping capacity allocation within 90 days and the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies [3]. - In the short - term, due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts if participating. Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large, so a positive arbitrage structure is adopted for now. In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits on rallies, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on freight rate rebounds [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Indexes - **May 12th**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% from the previous period [2]. - **May 23rd**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 783.58 points, up 4.35% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1586.12 points, up 106.73 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1392.61 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 908.14 points, up 3.6% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Eurozone**: In May, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, a 33 - month high; in April, the preliminary service PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the comprehensive PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2]. - **China**: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [2]. - **US**: In April, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the preliminary service PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the preliminary comprehensive PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [3]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 23rd, the main contract 2508 closed at 2224.9, up 2.73%. The trading volume was 74,200 lots, and the open interest was 49,200 lots, with a reduction of 2478 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Market Analysis - The freight rates online in early June are relatively firm, which supports the market to some extent. However, due to the stable cargo volume in the spot market, the market may decline after the peak US - bound shipping season, suppressing the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the overall market fluctuates significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. For now, a positive arbitrage structure is adopted [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on freight rate rebounds [4]. 3.6 Contract Rules - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16%. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

月间升贴水 EC2506/2508 260% 120% 110% 210% 100% 110% 60% EC2508/2510 cav-nam - 2024 (绕行后) average(正常年份) — average(正常年份) — — 2024 (绕行后) EC2510/2512 EC2506/2510 120% 110% 200% 100% 150% 90% 80% 100% 70% 50% GO% 2024/12/31 2025/1/31 2025/2/28 2025/3/31 2025/4/30 2024/12/31 2025/1/31 2025/3/31 2025/4/30 2025/2/28 EC2506/2510 nna x-n in average(正常年份) nax-n1in EC2510/2512 - average(正常年份) = = 2024 (绕行后) 船司线上报价结构 (40GP) 船司线上报价结构(折盘面) 5月5日 -- 5月12日 --- 5月16日 --- 5月23日 -5月12日 -- 5月16日 ->- 5月23日 -5月5日 3700 7500 2300 3200 2 ...

2025年5月22日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 欧盟加征小包裹关税, MSK涨价不及预期,盘面宽幅震荡,符合日报预期,已建议冲高止盈,等待回调机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 5月12日 | 5月16日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1265.30点，较上期下跌2.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1014.55点，较上期上涨6.53% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1446.36点，较上期下跌0.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 750.91点，较上期下跌0.78% | | 5月16日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1813.08点，较上期上涨23.18% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1479.39点，较上期下跌134.22点 | 5月16日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1154USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.60% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1104.88点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

| | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/5/22 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导致 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 1677,2 | -2.82 | -411.9 | 28893 | | 25907 | 352 | | | EC2508 | | 2121.1 | -6.27 | -855.8 | 100512 | | 53036 | 1266 | | | EC2510 | | 1419.6 | -1.14 | -154.3 | 15589 | | 23921 | -166 | | | EC2512 | | 1573.6 | -1.90 | -308.3 | 1762 | | 4878 | -82 | | | EC2602 | | 1416.8 | -0.99 | -151.5 | 839 | | 2910 | -133 | | | EC2604 | | 1248.0 | -0. ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 21 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：集运欧线期货5月20日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,703.4 | 1,720.0 | 1,725.9 | 1,724.8 | 22.5 | 1.3 ...