Core Viewpoint - The Swedish central bank is expected to implement three interest rate cuts this year due to a weakening economy influenced by trade war threats [1] Economic Outlook - Magnus Lindskog from Swedish Commercial Bank indicates that the central bank has hinted at potential rate cuts as trade tensions threaten economic recovery [1] - The central bank acknowledges uncertainty but assesses that increased tariffs will likely reduce demand in Europe, exerting downward pressure on inflation [1] Policy Implications - The bank anticipates that deteriorating sentiment in May will continue to reflect a weakening Swedish economy, prompting the central bank to ease its monetary policy despite inflation remaining above target [1]

美国高筑关税壁垒正引发多重经济危机。美联储理事24日警告称，美国总统特朗普引发的贸易战可能很快会导致失业率上升，不排除采取降息 措施应对。与此同时，物价上涨令美国民众债务压力加剧。在历经数周的虚张声势和不断升级局势后，美国总统特朗普似乎有点"扛不住了"， 他承认，对华征收145%的关税是"不可持续的"。而他的一系列动作，在《纽约时报》看来，则被嘲笑为一次又一次的"胆小鬼眨眼"。一些特 朗普政府官员私下表述称，他们承认未能准确预测中方反应，鉴于中国对美国的出口规模巨大，特朗普似乎原以为中国会是首批"请求（关 税）豁免"的国家之一。 特朗普（资料图） 皇家伦敦资产（Royal London Asset Management）高级经济学家梅勒妮·贝克（Melanie Baker）在研究报告中表示，仍预计美联储将于2025年实 施两次降息，但降息时间不会早于下半年。 她指出："我们预计美联储会等到下半年再开启降息。"届时经济将出现更明确的放缓迹象。当前衰退风险已有所上升，全球及美国国内增长前 景已然恶化。不过，鉴于互征关税的暂停以及美国总统特朗普对市场压力作出回应的迹象，贝克目前仍属于"经济放缓"阵营，而非"经济衰 ...

Group 1 - The long-term rebound of the euro is expected to squeeze profits and revenues for European companies, particularly exporters facing challenges from the strong euro and U.S. tariffs [1][4][5] - Major European companies such as SAP, Porsche, Heineken, and Schneider Electric have warned investors about the potential impact of the strong euro on their earnings [1][4][5] - The euro has appreciated over 9% against the dollar, reaching a three-year high, which raises concerns about further euro appreciation and its effects on European export competitiveness [1][4][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the strong euro could lead to a significant reduction in profit expectations for major European exporters, with HSBC lowering profit growth forecasts for the FTSE Europe Index companies to 2.9% [4][5] - SAP's CFO indicated that a 0.01 USD increase in the euro to dollar exchange rate could reduce the company's annual revenue by 30 million euros, highlighting the direct financial impact of currency fluctuations [5] - Heineken and Schneider Electric also reported potential profit reductions due to the strong euro, with estimates of 180 million euros and 1.25 billion euros respectively [5][6] Group 3 - The strong euro is seen as a double-edged sword for European trade, benefiting imports but posing challenges for exports, particularly in the context of the current international economic environment [2][4] - The euro's rise is partly attributed to the weakening of the dollar, as investors seek alternative safe-haven assets amid uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic policies [7] - The overall performance of European stocks has been negatively affected by the euro's strength, with key companies underperforming compared to the broader European market [6][7]

在特朗普贸易战和美元基本面削弱的双重打击下， 亚洲投资者正在大规模"逃离"世界储备货币 ——美元 ， "卖出美国，买入亚洲"的投资主题愈发强烈，资金大规模回流亚洲 ，推动亚洲货币 出现历史性反弹、股市也随之上涨。 台币两天暴涨10%，港元测试联系汇率的强势兑换保证水平，新加坡元飙升至近十年最高水平， 人民币在岸汇率周二大涨近600点，升至去年11月以来最高，韩元、马来西亚林吉特等也纷纷上 涨。亚洲债市和股市也随之受益，股市中以内需型企业的股票尤为突出。 5月7日， 著名经济学家Stephen Jen警告称， 亚洲出口商和投资者多年来可能积累了"极其庞 大"的美元储备 。 随着美国主导的贸易战不断加剧，一些亚洲投资者可能会将大量资金汇回， 美 元可能面临2.5万亿美元的"雪崩式"抛压。 1 9 9 8 年 的 " 镜 像 版 本 " 这 一 次 " 亚 洲 不 要 美 元 " 了 ？ 自20世纪末的亚洲金融危机以来， 亚洲经济体长期深陷"美元陷阱"。 1997-1998年亚洲金融危机期间的资本外流，导致亚洲多个国家货币暴跌。此后，亚洲地区加强 了美元储备的积累。 目前，亚洲最大的美元储备来自中国、韩国和新加坡， ...

Group 1 - The United States is currently limited to using economic methods such as trade wars and tariffs to confront China due to complex considerations and various influencing factors [2] - The U.S. economy exhibits structural vulnerabilities, with consumer spending accounting for approximately 30% of global household final consumption, leading to a high dependency on imports [2] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has decreased from 17% in 1991 to 10.2% in 2023, indicating a hollowing out of domestic manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The political environment in the U.S. is characterized by high levels of partisanship and polarization, with figures like Trump leveraging a tough stance on China to gain electoral support [3] - This strategy diverts public attention from domestic issues, focusing blame on China and consolidating political backing, particularly in regions like the Rust Belt [3] Group 3 - From the perspective of international law and order, the U.S. recognizes that direct military confrontation would violate international laws and norms [4] - Trade disputes and tariff adjustments provide a framework within international rules, allowing the U.S. to express dissatisfaction and exert influence without resorting to military action [4] Group 4 - The U.S. military strategy is complex, with a global network of alliances and strategic positioning, maintaining a dominant military presence [5] - Direct military confrontation could provoke a strong response from China, leading to significant casualties and economic losses, as well as potential global economic repercussions [5]

外国投资者正转向澳大利亚，选择这个常被忽视的市场作为贸易战的避风港，因为它拥有廉价的货币和 有韧性的经济。 虽然很难量化到底有多少资本流向澳大利亚，因为澳大利亚证券交易所不发布及时的资金流数据，但这 已体现在股票登记数据中。 自美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布"解放日"关税以来，澳大利亚S&P/ASX00指数是发达国家市场基准中表 现最好的指数之一，上涨3.1%，仅次于德国DAX指数。如果考虑同期的美元下跌，以美元计算的涨幅 是该数字的两倍多。 资金流入澳大利亚之际，全球资产配置者正在寻找美国股票的替代品，并显示出一种相对不寻常的对以 国内市场为主导的公司的追捧，而不是离岸买家历来青睐的全球矿业公司。 目前尚不清楚外国投资者具体购买了哪些非金融类股票，但不受关税影响的澳大利亚超市Coles今年迄 今上涨18%，澳大利亚电信公司Telstra上涨14%。 瑞银悉尼分公司负责澳大利亚和新西兰股票的董事总经理Clinton Wong表示："我们看到……全球基金 经理正在增持澳大利亚股票。" 他拒绝量化资金流或详细描述买家，但表示可能的原因是澳大利亚是一个庞大且流动性好的市场，受美 国10%关税的影响相对较低。 他说："我 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that despite a significant rebound in the stock market since April, driven by optimistic corporate earnings and strong macroeconomic data, there is skepticism regarding the sustainability of this optimism due to ongoing trade tensions and the lack of a concrete trade agreement [1][2][3] - The S&P 500 index has risen 13% since its low of 4982 points on April 8, indicating a strong market performance, but experts warn that investors may be overly optimistic about the resolution of trade issues [1] - Analysts from BCA Research and Goldman Sachs express concerns that the market's current pricing reflects an overly favorable outlook on economic growth, with expectations of growth exceeding 1% this year, which contrasts with more cautious predictions [3] Group 2 - The articles highlight that President Trump has indicated progress in trade negotiations, yet no formal agreements have been reached, and he has emphasized the lack of urgency in signing any deals [3][4] - Trump's upcoming press conference is anticipated to announce a significant trade agreement with a major country, potentially the UK, marking the first agreement since the imposition of high tariffs on multiple countries [4] - The discussions around trade agreements involve various proposals from the U.S.'s top trading partners, with indications that a deal could be reached soon, although the specifics remain unclear [3][4]

国际博弈持续升级。欧盟贸易委员谢夫乔维奇发出最后通牒，若关税谈判破裂，将于8日公布针对美国 的新一轮反制清单。当前欧盟对美商品关税覆盖面已达70%，若进一步扩大至97%，将引发更大规模贸 易战。值得注意的是，美国4月对欧盟首轮反制关税已暂缓至7月实施，但双方谈判仍陷僵局。 美国加征关税政策正引发连锁经济震荡，从港口到工厂、从企业到消费者，多领域遭受直接冲击。洛杉 矶港作为全美最繁忙的货物枢纽，本周业务量同比锐减35%，20%预定货轮被迫取消，码头工人面临工 作量腰斩的困境。卡车司机日均运输量从4-5个集装箱骤降至2-3个，港口配套的咖啡馆客流量断崖式下 跌，店主直言"80%顾客是港口工作者，现在连早餐时段都门可罗雀"。 这场由关税引发的经济震荡正在重塑商业生态。企业被迫在涨价保利润与维持市场份额间艰难抉择，消 费者面临物价上涨与商品短缺双重压力，港口工人则成为政策博弈的直接牺牲品。当总统声称"关税让 美国富有"时，洛杉矶港咖啡店主发出灵魂拷问："就业机会在哪里？我们只看到工作岗位在消失。"这 种政策目标与现实后果的割裂，正成为美国经济面临的最严峻考验。 玩具行业成为重灾区。美国市场80%进口玩具依赖中国制造， ...

"春节过后，集装箱航运市场进入货运淡季，现货运价持续走低。尽管各大航运公司多次尝试上调运费，但均未能 成功。目前，现货价格仍在低位徘徊。市场预期从之前对旺季的期待，逐渐转为对当前疲软态势的关注。这种转 变进而导致集运指数期货价格持续低迷。"银河期货航运及创新团队负责人贾瑞林接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表 示。 与此同时，一德期货分析师车美超向记者指出，美国复杂多变的关税政策引发全球贸易衰退预期，贸易流通受阻 直接冲击海运市场，致使美国航运路线热度急剧下降。为应对这一局面，船司调整航线布局，将部分运力转移至 欧洲航线，进一步加剧了欧洲航线运力供给过剩的状况。此外，自3月起，相较于去年同期，现货运价对应的集运 盘面估值偏高。在市场现实表现不佳的交易逻辑下，空头情绪集中宣泄，推动集运指数估值持续下调。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 叶青 北京报道 5月8日，受头部航运公司下调运费价格影响，早盘集运指数（欧线）期货（下称"集运指数期货"）价格再度下 跌，现货市场持续疲软，对EC2506期价形成持续压制，期货价格一路下探至1234元。业内人士指出，若运费价格 持续走低，将触及成本线。数据显示 ...

Group 1 - Trump's recent statements reflect a "superior" attitude towards China and other countries, claiming he is "not just managing America, but the world" [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary echoed Trump's views, blaming China for the trade imbalance, stating that China's exports to the U.S. are five times greater than the reverse, and calling for China to ease tensions [3] - China's response highlighted that the trade war was initiated by the U.S., warning that there are no winners in a trade war and urging for dialogue based on equality and respect [3] Group 2 - The trade war has significantly impacted American farmers, with losses exceeding $20 billion due to reduced exports to China, as China diversifies its imports from other countries [5] - Trump's administration has faced increasing criticism from the public, including former supporters, with 52% of voters believing he has overstepped his authority [5] - The perception of Trump's governance as a threat to the system of checks and balances has led to growing dissent within the Republican Party [5] Group 3 - Trump's belief in "managing the world" is increasingly being rejected by the American public, with historical patterns suggesting that countries acting with hegemony will eventually decline [7]