证券研究报告| 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 27 日 招商证券丨总量的视野 电话会议纪要（20251026） 研究部/总量研究 【宏观】二十届四中全会公报解读；【策略】四中全会公报解读和十五五规划 展望；【固收】压缩利差交易结束了吗；【地产】房地产及产业链数据解读； 【银行】H 股银行如何进入港股通；【资配】最新 A 股风格配置及交易信号跟 踪；【ESG】公募基金绿色投资五年演进与展望 q 【宏观 张一平】二十届四中全会公报解读 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于 2025 年 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京举行。全会听取和讨论了习近平受中央政治局委托所作的工作报 告，审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划 的建议》。习近平就《建议（讨论稿）》向全会作了说明。 "十五五"时期的重要地位。公报指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义 现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，在基本实现社会主义现代化进程中具 有承前启后的重要地位。一方面，"十五五"时期我国发展环境面临深刻复杂 变化，不确定难预料因素增多。另一方面，"十五五"时期我国仍处于战略机 遇期，我国长期向好的支 ...

Group 1 - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) Weihai Branch is supporting the green transformation of Pulinhengshan (Shandong) Tire Co., Ltd., which is the only enterprise in Weihai selected for financial support in green low-carbon transformation [1] - The new non-road tire project is expected to save 5.3517 million kWh of electricity and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 3,430.44 tons annually, showcasing significant achievements in green transformation [1] - ABC Weihai Branch has approved a project credit of 600 million yuan for the company, with an initial disbursement of 52.34 million yuan to support equipment upgrades and green transformation [1] Group 2 - ABC Weihai Branch prioritizes green finance as one of its three main strategies, aiming for green loan growth to exceed overall loan growth [2] - As of September 2025, the green credit balance of ABC Weihai Branch is expected to reach 17.481 billion yuan, an increase of 3.924 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [2] - The bank plans to enhance cooperation with government entities and establish a green project information database to improve financing efficiency [2]

Core Viewpoint - The eighth International Academic Seminar on Accounting and Finance in Emerging Markets was held at Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, focusing on "Financial Innovation and Transformation in the Era of Artificial Intelligence" [1] Group 1: Conference Overview - The seminar was organized by the Accounting School of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu Modern Financial and Tax Governance Research Institute, and the Jiangsu Provincial Accounting Society's Accounting Education Professional Committee [1] - The event gathered domestic and international experts to discuss the integration of new technologies like big data and artificial intelligence with financial governance [1] Group 2: Key Insights from Speakers - The Vice President of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Yao Wenyun, highlighted the university's achievements in talent cultivation, discipline construction, scientific research, and faculty development, emphasizing the need for a new ecosystem of deep integration between finance and technology [3] - Yao stated that artificial intelligence is driving profound changes in data and algorithm usage, pushing accounting and finance beyond traditional boundaries towards strategic leadership and value creation [3] - Wu Lin, Secretary-General of the Jiangsu Provincial Accounting Society, noted that artificial intelligence is redefining the boundaries and value of accounting work, calling for innovative thinking to explore new paths for industry transformation [3] Group 3: Seminar Structure and Topics - The seminar featured 16 parallel forums covering topics such as AI-enabled financial development, sustainable development, new productivity, fintech, green finance, environmental finance, ESG, value creation, and corporate governance [4] - A total of 63 presenters from various universities shared their latest research findings, with experts providing objective and in-depth feedback on the presentations [4]

Core Insights - Tianjin Rural Commercial Bank has partnered with Tianjin TEDA Industrial Development Group's Tianjin Economic Development Energy Technology Co., Ltd. to provide 750 million yuan financing for a comprehensive energy project in Tianjin Economic Development Zone, highlighting the bank's commitment to activating regional resources and promoting green low-carbon transformation [1][2] Financing and Project Details - The financing represents an innovative attempt in green financial products, aimed at revitalizing existing resources and supporting regional energy structure optimization [2] - The project will focus on three major initiatives: distributed photovoltaic systems, new energy charging piles, and the intelligent transformation of a heat source plant, with an expected annual carbon reduction of approximately 69,800 tons and an annual electricity generation exceeding 69 million kWh [1][2] Impact on Local Economy - The project is expected to provide stable, low-carbon, and efficient energy solutions for local enterprises, potentially saving around 6.5 million yuan in electricity costs annually [1] - In addition, Tianjin Rural Commercial Bank has provided a total of 1.54 billion yuan in special credit to support the renovation and operational enhancement of six underutilized apartment assets in the Tianjin Economic Development Zone [2] Community and Asset Revitalization - The transformation of idle assets into vibrant living spaces has been achieved through a comprehensive asset management system, enhancing the living experience and community engagement [3] - The project has achieved a 100% occupancy rate within 90 days of operation, leading the growth rate among brand apartments in Binhai New Area, with over 24,000 housing units in reserve and more than 2,700 units in market operation [3] Future Directions - Tianjin Rural Commercial Bank plans to continue expanding its financial support in green energy and resource revitalization, aiming to provide more financial assistance for the city's green low-carbon development [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) projects in China, indicating a significant increase in planned capacity and the need for export to manage production levels [3][5][6]. Industry Overview - Since the beginning of 2025, 47 new SAF projects have been planned, surpassing the total number of publicly announced projects before 2024, leading to a total planned capacity of over 13.28 million tons per year [3][6]. - As of September 2025, the SAF project startup rate exceeds 25%, with a built capacity of 1.156 million tons per year [4][9]. - China has four factories with SAF export licenses, totaling approximately 1.2 million tons of SAF export quotas [5][18]. Project Development - The SAF industry in China is characterized by a "supply-first, demand-abroad" model, indicating that while production capacity is expanding, domestic demand needs to be stimulated [5]. - There are currently 16 ongoing projects and 10 completed projects, with a startup rate exceeding 25% [9][12]. - The SAF projects are primarily concentrated in provinces such as Jiangsu, Hebei, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, and Shandong, with significant progress in several other provinces [12]. Technological and Economic Factors - The HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) route remains dominant due to its maturity and the established collection chain for used cooking oil (UCO) in China, despite rising UCO prices impacting production costs [15]. - New technologies are being explored, with successful tests of the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis SAF project and contracts signed for Honeywell's MTJ technology, indicating a diversification of technological approaches [15]. Policy and Support - The SAF sector has seen increased policy support, including the inclusion of the entire SAF supply chain in the 2025 Green Finance Support Project Directory, allowing companies to apply for low-cost green loans [18]. - Significant investments and standards have been introduced, such as the first SAF-specific policy in Chengdu and the release of industry standards for quantifying SAF's carbon footprint [18]. - The export sector has also seen advancements, with the issuance of a second batch of SAF export licenses, increasing the number of licensed factories to four [18]. Company Quotas - The following companies have received SAF export quotas: - Lianyungang Jiaao New Energy Co., Ltd.: 372,400 tons [19] - Yigao Environmental Energy Technology (Zhangjiagang) Co., Ltd.: 260,000-300,000 tons [19] - Shandong Haike Chemical Co., Ltd.: 370,000 tons [19] - Shandong Sanju Bioenergy Co., Ltd.: 158,000 tons [19]

经国务院批准，2025金融街论坛年会将于10月27日至30日在北京金融街举行，主题为"创新、变革、重 塑下的全球金融发展"。 金融监管总局将举办2025金融监管总局国际咨询委员会会议、中欧保险创新论坛、"安全开发应用人工 智能助力数字金融高质量发展"论坛。 中国证监会将举办中国证监会国际顾委会会议，中国证监会科技司将承办资本市场金融科技论坛。此 外，北京证券交易所将承办一场平行论坛。 国家外汇局将主办专场活动暨闭幕式，闭幕式主题为"全球变局下的国际经贸韧性合作"。 | 2025年10月27日 | | --- | | 16:00 · 17:30 · 开幕式 (闭门会) | | 9 北京会融街服斯汀大酒店 | | 2025年10月28日 | | 09:30 · 我局下的国际金融治理与合作 | | 9 北京金融街威斯汀大酒店 | | 14:00 - 17:00 · 国家金融监管总局2025国际咨询委员会会议 (闭门会) | | 9 北京金融街威斯汀大酒店 | | 09:00 · 12:00 · 金融法治论坛 在法治轨道上推进金融发展的创新、变革和重塑 | | 9 北京金融街頭思卡尔顿酒店 | | 14:00 - 1 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures on October 27, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Nickel: Nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is limited downside potential, but it lacks upward drivers [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: It shows a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the results of China - US consultations [2][7] - Industrial silicon: With the reduction of warehouse receipts, the bottom is relatively well - supported [2][10] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy implementation information [2][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Tracking** - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,150, with a change of 770 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 145,203, a change of 51,282 from T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,810, a change of 45 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 186,892, a change of - 6,500 from T - 1 [4] - Other related data such as prices of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, and nickel bean premium are provided. For the industrial chain, data on high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, and nickel plate import profit are presented. For stainless - steel related products, prices of 304/2B coils and 304/No.1 coils are also given [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT WedaBav Nickel mine due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [4] - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [5] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for not providing claim and refund guarantees [5][6] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the procedures for the preparation, submission, and approval of mining business activity work plans and budgets [6] - US President Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [6] - **Trend Intensity** - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [6] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Tracking** - For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 78,920, a change of - 460 from T - 1, with a trading volume of 103,581, a change of 764 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 79,520, a change of - 420 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 613,476, a change of 122,556 from T - 1 [7] - Other data including warehouse receipt volume, basis, raw material prices (such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica), and lithium salt product prices (such as battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate) are provided [7] - **Macro and Industry News** - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,821 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [8] - Australian lithium mining company Pilbara Minerals reported its Q3 2025 operating results. The lithium spodumene concentrate production was 224,800 tons, a 1.7% increase quarter - on - quarter. The sales price of lithium spodumene sc6 was 841 US dollars, a 19% increase quarter - on - quarter [9] - **Trend Intensity** - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Tracking** - For industrial silicon, the Si2601 closing price was 8,920 yuan/ton, a change of 215 from T - 1. The trading volume was 187,264 hands, a change of 14,918 from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2601 closing price was 52,305 yuan/ton, a change of 1,545 from T - 1 [11] - Other data such as basis, price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost for both industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided. For example, the industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.9 million tons, a decrease compared to previous data [11] - **Macro and Industry News** - The National Development and Reform Commission introduced that China has reduced the market access negative list items from 328 to 106 after 4 revisions, and cleared more than 4,200 policy measures hindering factor flow [11][13] - The "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" put forward measures to break market barriers [13] - **Trend Intensity** - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [13]

Core Insights - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will be held in Beijing from October 27 to 30, focusing on "Global Financial Development under Innovation, Transformation, and Restructuring" [1] Agenda Summary October 28, 2025 - International financial governance and cooperation discussions will take place, emphasizing the changing global landscape [1] - A closed-door meeting of the National Financial Regulatory Administration's International Advisory Committee will occur [1] - Various forums will address topics such as financial law, investment cooperation between China and the UAE, and the integration of finance with technology and innovation [1] October 29, 2025 - Sessions will focus on high-quality development in financial and tax technology services, and the dual empowerment of finance and technology for industrial growth [2] - A closed-door meeting will discuss the transformation of financial ecosystems in the age of artificial intelligence [2] - The agenda includes discussions on green finance and the Belt and Road Initiative [2] October 30, 2025 - The forum will conclude with discussions on Hong Kong-Beijing financial cooperation and resilience in international economic and trade relations [3] - A closed-door meeting will be held by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote high-quality development in capital markets [3] - Various sessions will focus on energy transition, green development, and the legal frameworks supporting new financial services [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported an ongoing optimization in the allocation of credit resources, enhancing the ability to serve the real economy effectively [1][2] - The number of technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) receiving loans has increased to 275,400, with a loan approval rate of 50.3%, marking a 2.8 percentage point increase from the same period in 2024 [1][2] - The loan balance for technology-based SMEs reached 3.56 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, significantly outpacing the average loan growth rate by 15.8 percentage points [1][2] Technology-Based SMEs - The loan approval rate for technology-based SMEs has shown consistent growth for three consecutive quarters, indicating improved access to financing [1][2] - The total loan balance for high-tech enterprises reached 18.84 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, slightly above the overall loan growth rate [2] Financial Support Mechanisms - Financial institutions are innovating products and optimizing risk assessment models to better cater to the financing characteristics of technology enterprises, transitioning from merely providing funds to ensuring quality and precision in financial services [3] Inclusive Finance - As of the end of the third quarter, the balance of inclusive micro loans reached 36.09 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.2%, surpassing the overall loan growth rate by 5.6 percentage points [4] - The balance of operational loans for farmers with a single credit limit below 5 million yuan reached 9.92 trillion yuan, demonstrating the financial sector's ongoing support for rural revitalization [4] Green Finance - The balance of green loans reached 43.51 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date growth of 17.5%, indicating a strong momentum in financing for green projects [5] - Specific allocations for green upgrades in infrastructure, low-carbon energy transitions, and ecological protection have seen significant increases, reflecting a strategic focus on sustainable development [5] Consumer Loans - Household consumption loans, excluding personal housing loans, reached 21.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, indicating a gradual release of consumer potential and supporting stable domestic demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27 to 30 in Beijing, focusing on "Global Financial Development under Innovation, Transformation, and Restructuring" [1]. Agenda Summary October 28, 2025 - International financial governance and cooperation under changing circumstances [4] - National Financial Regulatory Administration's 2025 International Advisory Committee Meeting (closed-door) [4] - Financial rule of law forum promoting innovation and transformation in financial development [4] - China-Arab Investment Cooperation Forum focusing on bilateral investment and financial market integration [4] - Entrepreneurs' meeting on deepening global collaboration between finance and technology innovation [4] - China-Europe Financial Investment Forum addressing global challenges [4] - China-Europe Insurance Innovation Forum exploring new energy and intelligent trends [4] - Financial risk prevention and collaborative governance in the digital era [4] - New services and breakthroughs empowering high-quality development of the private economy [4] - Financial technology conference opening ceremony (closed-door) [4] - Data-driven initiatives for public welfare (closed-door) [4] - ESG upgrades driven by technology in the financial sector [4] - Talent forum and related conferences [4] - Investment and financing matchmaking event [4] - Beijing Stock Exchange ecosystem thematic activities [4] October 29, 2025 - Financial empowerment for high-quality development of the technology service industry [5] - Dual empowerment of finance and technology for industrial development [5] - Building a new ecosystem for cross-border investment cooperation [5] - Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs) meeting on financial ecological transformation in the AI era (closed-door) [5] - Promoting high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative [5] - Restructuring global finance through openness and innovation [5] - Green finance development supporting carbon neutrality goals [5] - Financial innovation and services in the context of technological advancements [5] - AI applications in digital finance (closed-door) [5] - Roadshows for AI and digital transformation [5] October 30, 2025 - Beijing-Hong Kong Financial Cooperation Forum exploring new opportunities [6] - Closing ceremony on international economic and trade resilience cooperation (closed-door) [6] - China Securities Regulatory Commission's International Advisory Committee meeting focusing on capital market development [6] - Creating a new ecosystem for rapid development of technology enterprises [6] - Financial support for educational development [6] - International cooperation forum on green development (closed-door) [6] - Legal guarantees and rule establishment for new financial service productivity [6] - AI and financial technology innovation forum [6] - Awards ceremony for financial technology application scenarios [6] - Roadshows for green energy and future industries [6] - Online release of financial street achievements [6] - Closed-door seminar in New York [6]