Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to continue a structural trend in August, with short-term fluctuations but long-term upward potential due to domestic economic resilience and clear industrial upgrade trends [1][2] - Fund institutions, including Changcheng Fund and Morgan Stanley, highlight the strong inflow of incremental capital into the A-share market, driven by significant profit-making effects and increasing investor optimism [1][2] Group 2 - Multiple public funds are optimistic about the technology growth sector, particularly the AI industry chain, suggesting a focus on low-position technology stocks and the commercialization of AI applications [2] - The investment value in sectors with clear commercialization paths and potential technological breakthroughs, such as advanced semiconductor processes, is expected to increase due to supportive policies and reasonable valuation levels [2] Group 3 - Dividend assets are also a key focus for some public funds, with a preference for a "dividend + growth" allocation strategy in the current low-interest-rate environment [3] - The attractiveness of Hong Kong dividend assets is expected to rise due to strong long-term capital allocation demand and narrowing AH share premium trends [3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月03日 转债市场周报 转债进入强股性区间，风险与机遇并存 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（7 月 28 日-8 月 1 日） 上周转债个券多数收跌，中证转债指数全周-1.37%，价格中位数-1.22%， 我们计算的算术平均平价全周-1.00%，全市场转股溢价率与上周相比 +0.09%。个券层面，奇正（创新药）、东杰（实控人或变更）、天路（雅 下水电概念）、景 23（PCB）、海波（桥梁钢结构工程）转债涨幅靠前； 大禹（雅下水电概念&已公告强赎）、亿田（算力概念）、应急（军工& 已公告强赎）、奥飞（数据中心）、宏丰（合金材料&已公告强赎）转 债跌幅靠前。 观点及策略（8 月 4 日-8 月 8 日） 转债进入强股性区间风险与机遇并存，警惕三方面风险（小盘股/债市 压力/条款乐观定价），挖掘三类机会（反内卷/正股成长高波/红利）： 7 月沪指站上 3600 点，转债平均平价站上 110 元，市场价格中位数大于 130 元，均处于 2010 年来 90%、2023 年以来 100%分位数，转债资产已 进入强股性区间；随着债底保护下降，估值进一步提升，我们认为后续 续警惕三类风 ...

Core Viewpoint - High-quality dividend assets remain a key focus for investment, driven by the increasing demand for stable returns from investors [1] Group 1: Stock Selection Logic - The core of stock selection for dividend assets is the assessment of the stability of a company's free cash flow, which is essential for sustainable dividends [1][2] - Three main aspects are considered when evaluating the stability of free cash flow: 1. Demand sustainability and stickiness in the industry, avoiding sectors with long-term decline [2] 2. Favorable competitive landscape, preferring companies with competitive advantages such as exclusive operating rights and cost advantages [2] 3. Companies that have passed their capital expenditure peak and are entering a phase of generating free cash flow [2] Group 2: Industry Focus - Dividend assets are primarily found in sectors such as public utilities, large financials, and consumer goods, with specific examples including water, electricity, and waste management [2] - Industries like water and telecommunications are highlighted for their stable operating models, while sectors like thermal power and urban gas are noted for their profit volatility due to price and capital expenditure influences [2] Group 3: Advantages of Dividend Assets - Dividend assets have shown strong performance, with market risk appetite increasing, yet they continue to demonstrate investment value [3] - High dividends provide a dual risk buffer, indicating strong business models and governance, while low valuations correspond to lower volatility [3][4] - Dividend-paying companies typically exhibit stable earnings and lower valuation volatility, making them suitable for core portfolio allocation [4] Group 4: Market Characteristics - The number of high-dividend candidates in the market is limited and stable, often comprising mature companies that are easier for investors to evaluate [5] - Industries like high-end liquor and white goods have stable competitive landscapes, with leading companies maintaining strong positions [5]

Group 1 - Insurance capital has shown significant interest in the technology growth sector, particularly in the computer, electronics, and biopharmaceutical industries, with over 800 investigations conducted in July involving more than 280 stocks [1][3] - The computer industry led the investigations with a total of 88 times, followed closely by electronics and biopharmaceuticals, each exceeding 80 investigations [3] - Notable companies such as Defu Technology and Shijia Photon received the highest attention, each being investigated 16 times [4] Group 2 - Defu Technology, a leader in power equipment, announced plans to acquire 100% of a Luxembourg copper foil company for €1.74 billion, which is expected to increase its annual production capacity from 175,000 tons to 191,000 tons [6] - Shijia Photon, a leader in optical chips, is focused on the optical communication industry and has been under scrutiny regarding its business progress and expansion plans [6] - In July, stocks like Dongxin Co. saw significant price increases, with a rise of over 110%, while Defu Technology's stock increased by over 70% [6] Group 3 - Insurance capital has accelerated its market entry, with 21 instances of stake acquisitions reported this year, surpassing the total for the entire previous year [8] - The insurance asset management industry has shown a rebound in investment confidence, with the index rising from 50.12 in Q2 to 56.11 in Q3 [8] - The current market is viewed as reasonably undervalued, with expectations of continued policy support and a focus on growth stocks and large-cap stocks [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of fund managers, particularly from Yongying Fund, announcing purchase limits on their funds to manage investor enthusiasm and maintain fund stability [2][3][4]. Fund Purchase Limits - Yongying Fund announced a purchase limit for its equity fund, Yongying Ruixin, starting from August 4, with a daily purchase cap of RMB 1 million per account. The fund has achieved over 60% returns since its inception on December 22, 2023, and has a total scale of RMB 5.016 billion as of the end of Q2 [2][4]. - The limit aims to guide investors towards rational and long-term investments, ensuring stable fund operations and enhancing the experience for existing holders [3][6]. Recent Trends in Fund Management - Multiple active equity funds have recently declared purchase limits, particularly those focused on dividend themes and quantitative small-cap strategies. Funds like Guojin Quantitative Multi-Factor and China Merchants Growth Quantitative Stock Selection have significantly reduced their purchase limits this year [3][7]. - The surge in investor interest in these funds is attributed to strong performance, particularly in the context of rising market conditions and the appeal of dividend assets amid bond market volatility [9]. Market Outlook - Yongying Fund anticipates a potential upward trend in the A-share market, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and domestic catalysts. The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle and the opening of domestic monetary policy space are expected to support economic growth [6]. - The article highlights structural opportunities in the market, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, as well as the potential benefits from policy guidance in the context of supply-side reforms [11][12].

证券研究报告|专题研究 25年08月02日 华福证券 反转策略：红利滞涨下的超额选择 证券分析师： 投资要点 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 2 华福证券 华福证券 反转策略或是当下新选择。当前，整体盈利降速，高景气行业缩圈；同时，红利资产的股债收益 差也开始回落。红利资产滞涨时，反转策略或是新选择。 反转行情，多在景气较弱时，与红利行情部分重合。而且，在红利滞涨时，反转存在超额机会。 基于盈利预期上修，我们构建了行业预期的反转模型。模型专注于行业盈利预期的变化，而且当 "低点上修"幅度超过阈值时发出反转信号。 行业盈利预期自低点上修25%、70%时，行业或对应出现长达4个月、1年的行情窗口。1)行业 盈利预期自低点上修25%后，4个月的区间内，行业胜率达到72%，平均跑赢全A指数5%。2)行 业盈利预期自低点上修70%后，4个月的区间内，行业胜率更是达到80%，平均跑赢全A7.8%； 1年的区间内，行业胜率达到80%，平均跑赢全A指数11.7%。 回测区间内，反转指数跑赢全A12%。而且，波动、回撤较全A有效降低 ...

■ "3600点A股攻守道"系列报道之政策红利篇 步入2025年下半年，A股市场震荡上行，交投活跃度提升，投资者情绪随政策预期升温持续回暖。伴 随"十四五"规划进入收官之年，财政政策提效与产业转型升级协同推进，一系列尚未被市场充分定价的 政策红利正步入兑现阶段。 接受中国证券报记者采访的资深分析师认为，在"两新"政策扩围与"反内卷"产能出清的双轮驱动下，下 沉市场消费升级、银发经济产业链以及"专精特新"企业成为被低估的价值洼地。伴随四季度中美降息共 振预期强化，红利资产防御属性与科技成长板块弹性或将共同主导市场结构性机会，政策与市场的动态 博弈正步入关键阶段。 财政政策"上下半场"接力稳增长 上半年，我国财政政策延续了更加积极的基调，加大支出强度，加快支出进度，优化支出结构。展望下 半年，我国财政政策仍具备较大操作空间。 方正证券研究所副所长、首席经济学家燕翔对记者表示，从政策优先方向看，城市更新、"投资于 人"、"反内卷"、"两重两新"及产业升级等领域成为重点支持对象。城市更新已进入2.0阶段，内容从单 纯的老旧小区改造扩展至建筑节能、地下管网建设及智慧治理等方面，体现出政策的系统性和前瞻 性。"投资于人" ...

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - China's fiscal policy has maintained a proactive stance in the first half of the year, with increased spending intensity and optimized expenditure structure, indicating significant operational space for the second half [2][3] - Key areas of focus for fiscal support include urban renewal, investment in human capital, and industrial upgrades, reflecting a systematic and forward-looking approach [2][3] - The broad fiscal revenue and expenditure gap has increased by at least 1.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, highlighting the critical role of fiscal policy in stabilizing consumption, investment, and the financial system [3] Group 2: Consumer Market and Policy Incentives - The introduction of policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods is expected to benefit the lower-tier markets and the silver economy, which are seen as undervalued opportunities [4][5] - The "old for new" policy is anticipated to enhance consumer upgrading in lower-tier markets, with significant potential for the home appliance market due to the aging of previous policies [5] - The aging population is expected to drive demand in healthcare, elderly services, and related industries, creating investment opportunities in medical devices, innovative drugs, and elder care services [6] Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping the industrial landscape by promoting the exit of inefficient capacity, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved profitability due to their competitive advantages [7] - The focus on "anti-involution" is not merely about capacity reduction but aims at optimizing market mechanisms for high-quality industrial development [7] - The investment logic for core assets in the A50 index is shifting from "reassessing resilience" to "reassessing growth," indicating a potential revaluation of these assets as the real estate cycle stabilizes [9] Group 4: Market Opportunities and Investment Strategies - The current market strategy involves a dual approach of "dividend assets as a shield" and "new tracks as a spear," with dividend assets providing stability amid uncertainty and new sectors driving structural opportunities [8] - The expectation of synchronized interest rate cuts in China and the U.S. is likely to lower financing costs for the real economy and attract foreign investment into the A-share technology growth sector [10] - The anticipated decline in financing costs may stimulate demand in the real estate sector and consumer goods, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese exports [10]

金鹰基金权益研究部策略研究员金达莱 首席经济学家、基金经理杨刚 7月A股大幅放量冲关9.24以来高点，多行业轮动扩大赚钱效应。月内国防军工受益于9.3阅兵预期，行 业表现活跃，而市场风偏提振下，AI驱动的产业链展现出更大弹性。与此同时，创新药再迎政策利好 和恒瑞医药海外BD大单，也点燃了市场投资热情。此外，超预期一面在于，中央财经委推动供给侧反 内卷带动周期行业大幅反弹，以及"雅下水电站"开工进一步推动市场短期风偏。 展望8月市场，关税对全球经济实际影响将显现，等待国内外局势更趋明朗。海外方面，中美新一轮谈 判目前并未有明确进一步进展，此前市场偏乐观的预期或有一定修正。此外，232调查等针对个别行业 的超高关税有待落地。美联储在通胀抬升和就业不差的美国经济背景下，难以引导宽松预期。国内方 面，进入8月，PMI转弱已显示此前"抢出口"效应对经济抬升的支撑正在减弱，我国关税落地后对基本 面的实际影响将进入真实考察期，短期政治局会议基调延续稳中求进，增量政策或难以期待。总体而 言，海内外均有不同层面的不确定性因素有待资本市场消化，市场高位下后续需检验基本面韧性。 后续，还需重点关注以下海内外因素，预计这些方面都可能 ...

一、事件：2025中国电解铝大会 据中冶有色官网显示，"2025中国电解铝大会"将于2025年8月21-23日在云南省昆明市召开。 据悉，本次会议主题内容包括"电解铝产品碳足迹核算与探讨"、"电解铝烟气CO?捕集技术路径"、"电解铝智能工厂关键技术体系与核心架构 （工业互联网、5G、AI等）"等。 供需趋紧，或成真正红利资产 天风证券表示，我国电解铝行业产能的天花板被划定为 4400-4500 万吨，截至 25 年 5 月底，国内电解铝建成产能及运行产能分别为 4550/4413 万吨，建成产能达4500 万吨天花板，同时产能利用率已达到 97%，为历史相对高点。 传统领域中，地产对铝需求形成一定拖累，但电力、家电等需求韧性较强。新能源领域，电解铝需求主要由光伏及新能源车拉动。光伏装机的 稳定增长叠加新能源车产销的高景气度为铝需求提供较多增量。供需趋紧格局下，预计铝价中枢有望稳步抬升，电解铝行业高利润有望延续。 另外东方证券指出，随着电解铝行业内部资本开支的持续下降，上市公司稳定的盈利有望带来资产负债表的持续改善，最终或体现为分红回购 的持续增长。根据当前电解铝及氧化铝价格测算，主要上市公司股息率有望接近6% ...