证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20250512-20250518） 聚焦中美关税进展：双边贸易迅速升温，备货潮推 推荐（维持） 高运价，推荐集运板块投资机会 一、聚焦中美关税进展：双边贸易迅速升温，备货潮推高运价，推荐集运板块 投资机会 5 月 12 日，中美发表日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，中美将互相取消此前加征的 91%的反制关税，并暂停实施 24%的对等关税 90 天。 关税政策一经调整，双边贸易迅速升温，美国进口商快速启动原本积压订单的 发货，市场美线货运量激增，据财联社公众号报道：贸易追踪机构 Vizion 公 布的数据显示，在美国和中国互降关税之后，在美国下单的从中国到美国的集 装箱运输预订量飙升近 300%。截至 5 月 5 日的七天平均预订量为 5709 个标 准集装箱，而截至 5 月 14 日的七天平均预订量飙升 277%至 21530 个标准集 装箱。 出货需求大增推高市场运价，根据上海航交所公众号报道，本周北美航线的运 输需求明显复苏，即期订舱价格大幅上涨：5 月 16 日，上海港出口至美西和 美东基本港市场运价（海运及海运附加费）分别为 3091 美元/FEU 和 4069 美 ...

航空量价向好可期，集运迎来多重催化 交通运输 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 17 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 | | 南方航空 | 5.97 | -0.23 | -0.09 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.54 | -25.96 | -66.33 | 19.77 | 13.70 | 10.96 | 买入 | | | | 中国东航 | 3.79 | -0.37 | -0.19 | 0 ...

去年以来，资本市场 新"国九条""科创板八条""并购六条" 等政策落地实施 上交所和深交所修改ST和退市规则 对分红和财务的要求进一步提升 从2025年1月1日起执行 在监管引导下 厦门上市公司积极分红回购 持续加大股东回报 这场"红包雨"中 既有建发股份、厦门银行、厦门国贸等企业 抛出的"超级红包" 也有中小创企业坚守股东回报的诚意之举 1 超过一年期存款利率 超七成上市厦企进行分红 金额超3亿元企业达8家 据统计，截至4月30日A股共有5402家上市公司披露2024年年报，3645家上市公司拟进行现金分红，占 比约为67.48%；预计分红总规模达1.65万亿元。厦门板块共有50家上市公司拟进行分红，占比约为 74.6%，大幅高于市场整体水平。 从规模看，厦门股年报分红总额为108.81亿元，呈现明显的头部集中效应。分红超3亿元的上市公司达8 家，分别为亿联网络、建发股份、厦门象屿、厦门钨业、法拉电子、厦门银行、厦门国贸和ST盛屯， 合计贡献约54.45亿元，占总分红额的50%。另有16家公司分红规模在1亿元至3亿元区间，共同构建起 厦门股分红的基本盘。 亿联股份以绝对优势领跑，2024年拟分红16.43亿 ...

【导读】部分港股通高股息指数最新股息率超过8% 低利率时代，高息资产吸引力凸显。 数据显示，部分港股通高股息指数最新股息率超过8%。 今年以来，全市场港股高息资产"吸金"势头强劲，其中红利主题ETF年内规模增幅达40%以上，港股红 利资产正成为市场资金关注的重要方向之一。 港股红利主题产品受捧 伴随关税局势缓和，经历4月初大波动的港股市场弹性十足，至今已实现四周连阳。而在央行降准降息 之后，港股红利资产正在成为市场资金关注的重要方向之一。 从ETF产品流入情况来看，截至5月15日，全市场港股红利主题ETF今年以来"吸金"超百亿元，合计净流 入达110亿元，合计规模接近462亿元，相较2024年年底的327亿元增长40%以上。 摩根基金旗下港股红利指数ETF年内资金净流入37.67亿元，最新规模为104.26亿元，也是港股红利主题 ETF中首只百元级ETF，较去年底规模增近一倍。 华安旗下港股通央企红利ETF年内资金净流入接近18亿元，至34.86亿元，较去年底的16.15亿元翻了一 番还多。 景顺长城港股央企红利50ETF净流入资金超过13亿元，至48.65亿元，较去年底增幅超过30%。 中国基金报记者天心 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and adjustments, with significant pullbacks in key sectors such as brokerage, liquor, and semiconductors, leading to declines in the three major stock indices [1] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3380.82 points, down 0.68%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10186.45 points, down 1.62%; and the ChiNext Index was at 2043.25 points, down 1.91% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 11,524 billion yuan, a decrease of over 1,600 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector showed localized movements, with beauty care and leisure food sectors leading the gains [2] - The beauty care index surged by 3.68%, the highest among all primary industries, with companies like Qingsong Co., Huaye Fragrance, and Jieya Co. hitting the daily limit of 20% [2] - Analysts suggest that the demand for safe and effective skincare products is increasing, indicating a trend towards more technological and professional development in the beauty care field [2] - The leisure food index rose by 0.56%, with companies like Ximai Food increasing over 6% and Youyi Food and Haoxiangni rising over 4% [2] - The first quarter reports indicate strong resilience in consumer goods, with many beverage companies performing well and a positive outlook for food and beverage sectors through 2025 [2] Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth permanent magnet sector showed significant strength, with companies like Jingyuntong hitting the daily limit and Jiuling Technology rising over 7% [2] - Shenghe Resources announced plans to acquire 100% of Australian Peak Rare Earths Limited for 158 million Australian dollars, focusing on rare earth exploration and production [3] - China Rare Earth recently indicated its active cooperation with the China Rare Earth Group to address industry competition issues and potential mergers and acquisitions [3] - Analysts note that recent increases in rare earth prices and crackdowns on smuggling may enhance the supply-demand dynamics in the sector [3] Fund Management and Investment Strategy - The implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" is expected to strengthen the performance benchmark constraints, benefiting underweighted sectors [4] - Stable dividend assets, represented by banks, public utilities, and transportation, are expected to continue outperforming, while sectors with growth potential should be selectively chosen based on risk-reward ratios [4] - The domestic computing chip industry is anticipated to show promising performance based on inventory and contract liabilities indicators [4]

煤炭红利：不确定性中确定性 20250514 摘要 • 当前煤炭行业虽面临库存压力，但边际改善信号显现，电厂库存非全年高 位，补库需求、进口缩量及日耗改善有望推动煤价在五月下旬至六月底企 稳反弹，但反弹幅度受库存影响。 • 煤炭行业投资逻辑已从周期性转向估值驱动，公募新规提升红利资产关注 度，资金流入强化。煤炭板块配置比例低于沪深 300，在国债收益率下滑 及资产荒背景下，中长线估值提升概率大。 • 供给侧改革显著影响煤炭行业，限产等措施稳定煤价，但产量和产能提升 受限增强煤价稳定性。长期来看，通货膨胀和成本上升推动资源品价格走 强，煤炭投资方式从涨业绩转变为涨估值。 • 新增产能资本开支比例下降，安全环保要求趋严及碳达峰目标限制新增供 给弹性。长协定价机制（基准价 675 元/吨）保障盈利稳定性。高股息资 产在国债收益率下行背景下易获估值溢价。 • 今年以来煤价中枢下修受多重因素影响，包括印尼煤炭供应增加、国内安 全检查后复产、经济需求疲软导致电价下调，以及市场风格偏好变化，科 技成长板块成为主线。 Q&A 今年以来煤炭价格的整体趋势如何？有哪些因素影响了煤炭需求和价格？ 今年以来，煤炭价格呈现大幅下滑的趋 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced an upward trend driven by large financial stocks, with the ChiNext index leading the gains and the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3400 points [1] - The total market turnover for the day was 1.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The financial sector's rise is believed to be linked to new regulations for public funds, which may guide asset allocation towards the CSI 300 index [1] Group 2 - The valuation recovery logic for the financial sector continues to unfold, supported by stable fundamentals and ongoing policy backing [2] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with structural opportunities and sector rotation being the main investment themes [2] - Analysts recommend focusing on growth technology sectors (robotics, semiconductor equipment, gaming media), industries at the bottom of the cycle (military, offshore wind, pharmaceuticals), and stable dividend assets (insurance, construction machinery, cement) [2]

国泰海通发布研报表示，随着"新国九条"等政策的逐渐落实，A股乃至港股上市公司的分红积极性、持 续性有望提高。同时，低利率环境下，资金对红利资产有较高的配置需求。当前红利资产的股息率相较 于国债利率的配置性价比持续凸显，春节以来南下资金主要增配了银行、电信服务等行业的高股息资 产。另外，近年来险资保费收入持续增长，更追求绝对收益的险资对于高股息类资产的配置需求也有望 提升。 | 港股红利低波ETF(SH:520550) T+0交易 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ¥1.093 +0.013 +1.20% | | | 5967 球员元 交易中 05-14 18:07:18 北京时间 | | 最高:1.093 | 今年:1.084 | 张停:1.188 | 成交量:18.83万手 | | 景低:1.080 | 昨收:1.080 | 跌停:0.972 | 成交额:2047.54万 | | 换手:一 | 市价:1.093 | 单位争值:1.080 | 草全份额: 3.50亿 | | 振幅: 1.20% 溢价率:0.10% | | 景计净值: 1.080 | 石产净值: 3.82亿 ...

重大利好落地，科技主线确立无疑，但从最近的表现来看：科技跌时银行涨，科技涨的时候银行还是 涨，这跷跷板明显偏向红利资产。 今日开盘，红利资产持续走强。$港股红利低波ETF(SH520550)$盘中一度涨超0.6%，正在冲击7连涨， 距离历史高点仅1.2%的涨幅。数据显示，该ETF年内累计净申购已经超过1亿元，年内份额扩容近 45%，创上市以来新高。 值得注意的是，港股红利低波ETF（520550）日前刚发布过2025年首次分红公告：每10份基金份额派发 现金红利0.02元，权益登记日为5月14日，除息日为5月15日，现金红利将于5月20日发放。 ——这意味着，今日收市前买入或持有ETF均可获得分红款。尽管由于成分股的分红节奏导致ETF初期 分红比例不高，但随着5-7月成分股进入派息高峰，未来港股红利低波ETF（520550）分红势必会有一 波提升，可以一起见证一下。 | 收益分配基准日 | | 2025年4月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 截止收益分配基准日的相关 | 基准日基金份额净值(单位: 人民币元) 基准日基金可供分配利润(单 | 1.0244 5.560.849.53 | | ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the attractiveness of dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting that the China Securities Dividend Total Return Index has a dividend yield of 6.26% as of March 31, 2025, placing it in the 91.38th percentile over the past decade [1] - The article introduces the upcoming launch of the招商红利量化选股混合 fund, which combines dividend theme investment with an active quantitative stock selection strategy, aimed at helping investors allocate to high-yield, undervalued assets [1][2] Investment Strategy - The招商红利量化选股混合 fund employs a multi-factor quantitative investment model to select stocks with investment value, evaluating aspects such as valuation, growth, profitability, operational quality, and volatility [2] - The fund's portfolio construction relies on quantitative model outputs and optimization algorithms to determine stock composition and weightings, seeking to achieve an effective investment boundary [2] Fund Management - The fund manager, Cai Zhen, has nearly 11 years of investment research experience and has managed the招商中证1000指数增强A fund since November 5, 2021, achieving a three-year return of 14.09%, significantly outperforming its benchmark by 21.30% [2][4] - The quantitative investment team at招商基金 has an international perspective and consists of 9 members with an average experience of 9.2 years, specializing in financial engineering, risk management, and information technology [3]