作为价值投资者的"圣经"，格雷厄姆先生在《证券分析》一书中，就对价值投资的回报写下了定义：赚取一个资产长期 现金流的回报。格雷厄姆先生认为，这个资产到底上市还是不上市，是债券还是股票，都不重要的。重要的是，投资回 报的关键在于现金流。最终股东赚取的是分红的钱，还是现金流再投资的回报，也不重要。 在形成了价值投资的定义后，格雷厄姆和其最好的学生巴菲特，又对投资者和投机者做了区分。投资者关注的所有事 情，都是围绕企业如何产生现金流来的。所以，巴菲特会强调好生意还是坏生意（不同生意赚现金流的难度不同），强 调对护城河的研究（护城河越强，现金流越稳定），强调优秀的管理层（好的管理层会善待股东）。 许多人会把价值投资和成长投资对立起来。事实上，价值投资者的对立面是投机。无论是低估值还是高成长，只要是从 获取现金流角度出发的投资，就是价值投资。这也是为什么，DCF估值模型能够经久不衰，成为衡量企业价值的重要工 具。 导读：爱因斯坦曾说"宇宙中最强大的力量不是原子弹，而是复利加时间。"复利效应的原理是，充分利用时间杠杆。时 间越长，得到的回报就越惊人。复利思维，也逐渐在大众理财中开始普及。 当上证指数时隔10年后重新回到4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) is set to distribute dividends for the third quarter, with a dividend of 0.15 yuan per ten shares, reflecting a distribution ratio of 0.95% [1][15]. Dividend Distribution - This marks the 14th dividend distribution since the ETF's inception, with a cumulative dividend amount of 3.65 yuan per ten shares [1][15]. - The annual dividend ratios for the past five years (2020-2024) were 4.53%, 4.14%, 4.19%, 4.78%, and 4.66% respectively [1][15]. Market Trends - Recent market conditions have seen a return of funds to high-dividend stocks, with the China Securities Dividend ETF experiencing a net subscription of 134 million yuan over four consecutive days [1]. - The 40-day return differential of the China Securities Dividend Index relative to the Wind All A Index was -12.25% as of September 12, indicating underperformance compared to the broader market [1][6]. Investment Insights - Long-term investment strategies are being bolstered by policies encouraging insurance companies to increase their equity holdings, potentially adding several hundred billion yuan to the A-share market annually [2][17]. - The current dividend yield of the China Securities Dividend Index is 4.86%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.87%, enhancing the attractiveness of dividend-paying assets [9][12]. Performance Metrics - The latest price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the China Securities Dividend Index is 8.18, with historical percentiles indicating a high valuation relative to the past five and ten years [12][19]. - The China Securities Dividend Index has shown varied performance over the last five years, with annual returns of 3.49% (2020), 13.37% (2021), -5.45% (2022), 0.89% (2023), and 12.31% (2024) [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of dividend index funds, highlighting their unique investment value and the challenges investors face in selecting suitable products in a diverse market [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Value of Dividend Index Funds - Dividend index funds are characterized by their investment value, typically derived from companies with strong profitability, stable cash flow, and consistent dividend payments, such as leading firms in banking, transportation, and energy sectors [6]. - These companies can maintain a certain level of dividends even during market fluctuations or short-term performance declines, providing a buffer against stock price drops [7]. - From January 2007 to December 2024, the annualized return of the CSI Dividend Total Return Index was 10.32%, significantly outperforming the 5.52% return of the CSI 300 Total Return Index [8]. - The annualized volatility of the CSI Dividend Total Return Index over the last five years was 16.66%, lower than the 19.33% of the CSI 300 Total Return Index, indicating stronger return stability during market fluctuations [9][12]. Group 2: Evolution and Types of Dividend Index Funds - The number of dividend index funds in China has grown significantly, with only three funds launched from 2006 to 2016, but a surge in issuance occurred from 2017 to 2020 [14][15]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, there were 87 dividend index funds with a total scale of 153.9 billion, representing a 2211.68% increase since the end of 2007 [16]. - Different types of funds focus on various aspects of dividends, including traditional broad-based funds tracking indices like the CSI Dividend Index, and Smart Beta funds that enhance factors like low volatility and quality [20][21]. - Some funds specifically target state-owned enterprises, which are known for their stable earnings and increasing dividend payout intentions, making them a reliable source of dividends [22]. Group 3: Selecting Dividend Index Funds - Investors should consider the characteristics of different types of dividend index funds, with traditional broad-based funds serving as a foundational investment, while Smart Beta funds cater to specific needs [25]. - It is essential to evaluate the scale and liquidity of index funds, as smaller funds may face liquidation risks and poor liquidity can hinder trading at favorable prices [26]. - Tracking error is a critical factor, with lower tracking errors indicating better performance in reflecting the underlying index [26]. Group 4: Importance of Fee Rates - Fee rates are a significant consideration, as seemingly minor differences can substantially impact long-term investment returns, especially for index investments focused on compounding [28]. - Despite a trend of lowering fees in the public fund industry in 2024, many newly established dividend index funds still maintain relatively high management fees of 0.5% and custody fees of 0.1% [29]. - The high fee rates may be linked to the recent popularity of dividend assets, allowing fund companies to command higher pricing power during product launches [29].

Group 1 - The cash flow index has shown weak performance in 2025, primarily due to the profit fluctuations in the coal and petrochemical industries leading to valuation adjustments [5][10][29] - The absolute return of the cash flow index is significantly lower compared to historical averages, with the National and CSI cash flow total return indices yielding 4.1% and 4.6% respectively, while the broader market (Wande All A) returned 13% [5][10] - The banking sector's absence has been a major drag on the cash flow index's relative performance against the dividend index, which has benefited from strong bank contributions [29][30] Group 2 - The value strategy should not only focus on the level of ROE but also on the stability of ROE to enhance returns and mitigate volatility during periods of declining profitability [7][18] - The Huachuang strategy's cash flow combination has achieved a cumulative return of 31% from April 2024 to August 2025, outperforming benchmarks significantly [7][20] - The cash flow index tends to favor large-cap stocks, which has contributed to its underperformance in small-cap favorable market conditions [30][31] Group 3 - The expectation of a return to inflation could lead to the cash flow index outperforming both the dividend index and the broader market, as historical patterns suggest [31] - The cash flow index's performance is expected to improve as M1 growth has been rising for three consecutive quarters, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation logic [31]

Core Viewpoint - The recent cautious sentiment in the market has led investors to focus on defensive indices that can effectively manage portfolio drawdowns while capturing structural opportunities [1][2]. Dividend Indices - Since 2021, dividend indices characterized by high dividend yields and stable payouts have attracted significant capital [2]. - The CSI Dividend Total Return Index has achieved a cumulative return of 276.45% since 2014, outperforming the CSI 300 Total Return Index, which recorded a gain of 108.54% during the same period [2][4]. - The index has shown a strong ability to "weather bull and bear markets," with a positive return probability of 73% over 11 years, compared to 55% for the CSI 300 [4]. Low Volatility Dividend Index - The Low Volatility Dividend Index has enhanced its annualized return to 13.29% by incorporating a low volatility factor, achieving a cumulative return of 294.21% [4][5]. - This strategy has a single-year win rate of 91%, providing a better option for risk-averse investors [4]. Free Cash Flow Indices - Free cash flow is a critical metric for assessing a company's ability to generate real earnings after maintaining operations and capital expenditures [5]. - The National Free Cash Flow Index has achieved an annualized return of 19.03% since 2014, with a cumulative return of 578.83%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300's annualized return of 6.91% [5][9]. - Even during the volatile period from 2021 to 2023, the index recorded a cumulative increase of 103.74% [5]. Strategy Comparison - In a low-interest-rate environment, both dividend and free cash flow strategies have become focal points for investors seeking stable and potential investment directions [9][10]. - Dividend strategies tend to select mature companies with lower growth expectations, while free cash flow strategies can identify companies with both cash flow generation and reinvestment capabilities [10]. Index Performance Summary - The performance of various indices from 2014 to 2024 shows that the CSI Dividend Index and the National Free Cash Flow Index have consistently outperformed the CSI 300 in terms of cumulative returns and annualized returns [8][12]. - The positive return probabilities for these indices are notably higher, with the Low Volatility Dividend Index achieving a 91% win rate [8][12]. Conclusion - For investors seeking stable dividends, the CSI Dividend Index is a suitable choice, while those willing to accept some volatility for potentially higher long-term returns may find the Free Cash Flow Index more appealing [12].