期间，特朗普从骂人到威胁，招数用尽，最后只能往美联储理事会塞自己人。 时隔9个月，美联储终于宣布降息25个基点。说实话，这次降息对我们影响还是挺大的。 但在说影响之前，想先跟大家聊一些有意思的事情，包括发生的一场"闹剧"。 其实，特朗普从一上任开始，就嚷嚷着想要降息。 这也很好理解，就是想通过降息拉动股市和制造业，毕竟特朗普刚上任，刚好能帮他攒点政绩、撑撑场面。 但鲍威尔偏偏没有给这个面子，对特朗普的要求视而不见，硬是顶住了特朗普九个月的压力。 直到压力越来越大，鲍威尔才在9月松口降息。 特朗普这么执着，一方面确实需要政策来装点门面，另一方面，恐怕也是觉得鲍威尔太不給面子。 特朗普上任前的2024年底，鲍威尔配合拜登哐哐降了100个基点，等他上台，反而按兵不动。换谁心里都不舒服。 但鲍威尔坚持不轻易降息，也有他的理由。 一是经济情况不允许。 24年底的通胀已经回落，而且就业市场也相对稳定，有一定的降息空间。 而到了25年，通胀开始反弹，加上特朗普挑起贸易战，通胀抬头、失业也在上升。 照理说通胀时期企业往往扩大生产，就业应该会改善。 但如今却形成了一个非常矛盾的局面—"低增长、高通胀"的滞胀格局。 这时候如果大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut, reflecting its "survival wisdom" under political pressure from the White House, particularly from Trump, who has remained unusually silent on the matter [1][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was passed with a surprising 11-1 vote, showcasing unexpected unity within the institution despite external pressures [2][10]. - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management decision," indicating that the Fed believes its policies have been on the right track this year [6][19]. - The recent adjustment comes amid a backdrop of significant downward revisions in non-farm employment data, with a reduction of 910,000 jobs, highlighting the economic challenges faced [7][19]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The meeting was described as a "showdown" between the Federal Reserve and the White House, with Powell managing to maintain internal unity despite the political climate [9][10]. - The vote reflected a temporary victory for the Fed's independence, as the majority of members supported the rate cut despite potential pressures from Trump [10][12]. - The only dissenting vote came from a newly appointed member who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, indicating ongoing divisions within the Fed [11][13]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The rate cut is seen as a preventive measure to safeguard economic growth before a potential recession, with Powell acknowledging signs of a weakening job market [18][19]. - Historical precedents for preventive rate cuts have led to varied outcomes, including soft landings, recessions, and high inflation, raising questions about the current economic trajectory [21][26]. - Analysts express concerns that the current economic issues stem from rising costs rather than insufficient demand, suggesting that excessive monetary easing could exacerbate inflation [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% was anticipated, but the market reaction was unexpected, with the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rising sharply after a brief dip, while gold experienced significant selling pressure [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Fed's Actions - Fed Chairman Powell labeled the rate cut as a "risk management" move, indicating that the motivation was not due to an existing recession but rather to hedge against future uncertainties [3][5]. - Despite the rate cut, Powell acknowledged rising risks in the labor market, with both labor supply and hiring demand declining sharply, creating a "peculiar balance" [5]. - Inflation and unemployment rates, which typically move in opposite directions, have both shown upward trends recently, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5][8]. Group 2: Fed's Forecasts and Political Pressures - On the same day as the rate cut, the Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for the next three years while lowering unemployment rate predictions for the next two years, highlighting internal contradictions in its outlook [7][8]. - Political pressure from the White House is increasingly influencing Fed decisions, as evidenced by the dissenting vote from newly appointed board member Milan, who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [10][12]. - The market's trust in the Fed's independence is eroding, with concerns that the Fed's future policy may lean more towards government preferences due to ongoing political pressures [14][15]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Liquidity Concerns - The market has accepted predictions of one to two more rate cuts this year, but largely ignored the Fed's long-term projections, reflecting skepticism about the Fed's future policy direction [17]. - A more pressing concern is the tightening liquidity in the banking system, as indicated by the overnight financing rates in the repo market exceeding the Fed's policy rate ceiling, signaling potential financial instability [20][22]. - The ongoing reduction of the Fed's balance sheet is drawing liquidity from the market, which could lead to a situation where the Fed may need to reverse course and expand its balance sheet again, signaling a stronger easing than the rate cut itself [22][24].

在凤凰湾区财经论坛2025前夕，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院实践教授胡捷表示，美联储的独立性源 于历史经验，且已法律化。美国总统虽然可以通过提名（美联储）理事和（美联储）主席来达到将个人 意志施加给美联储的目的，但其影响力是有限的。 ...

此前，联邦法院已作出裁决，认为特朗普总统试图解雇库克的行为可能违法。值得注意的是，在美联储长达一个多世纪的历史中，从未出现过在任总统罢免 现任理事的情况，这使本案显得尤为特殊。库克是由民主党籍前总统拜登提名的美联储理事，她已多次公开表示不会屈服于政治压力而辞职。 由于联邦上诉法院驳回了罢免请求，共和党主导的特朗普政府转而向最高法院寻求支持。分析人士指出，这既是特朗普试图重组美联储领导层的举措，也可 能对美联储的独立性产生深远影响。库克的代理律师阿贝·洛厄尔强调，他的当事人将继续履行参议院确认的职责。 与此同时，参议院共和党人已批准特朗普提名的斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事。回溯到8月25日，特朗普首次尝试解雇库克，但这一决定在上周遭到联邦法官 否决，库克得以恢复原职。 特朗普政府指控库克在2021年申请抵押贷款时存在不实申报，称其将两处房产都标注为主要住所以获得更有利的贷款条件。但库克坚决否认这些指控，且目 前并未面临任何刑事起诉。美联社获取的文件显示，库克在贷款申请中明确将亚特兰大公寓标注为度假屋，这与政府的指控存在明显出入。 特朗普政府近日向美国最高法院提交紧急申请，要求撤销美联储理事莉萨·库克的职务。这一行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut, reflecting its "survival wisdom" under political pressure from the White House, particularly from Trump, who has remained unusually silent on this decision [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was passed with a surprising 11-1 vote, showcasing unexpected unity within the institution despite external pressures [1][7]. - The rate cut is characterized as a "preemptive cut" aimed at managing risks before a potential economic downturn occurs [14][18]. - Powell's statements during the announcement emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management decision" and downplayed expectations for rapid adjustments to interest rates [6][18]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - Recent adjustments to employment data, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs, indicate a weakening labor market, prompting the Fed's decision to cut rates to prevent further economic decline [6][10]. - Historical precedents of preemptive rate cuts have led to varied outcomes, including soft landings, recessions, and high inflation, raising questions about the potential consequences of the current cut [15][17]. - The current economic environment is marked by persistent inflation pressures, particularly in the service sector, complicating the Fed's decision to lower rates [17][23]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, gold prices initially surged to a historical high before retreating, indicating market reactions to the Fed's signals [18][24]. - The dollar index fell to its lowest point since February 2022 but began to recover after Powell's remarks, suggesting a complex market response to the Fed's actions [18][23]. - Analysts predict that the 10-year Treasury yield will stabilize around 4.4% in the coming years, with the Fed expected to gradually lower the federal funds rate [23].

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储重启降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%～4.25%。 这是今年美联储首次采取降息措施。美联储本次降息的核心依据在于美国经济数据整体呈现疲弱态势、 通胀压力有所缓解，而就业市场动能的减弱，更是进一步强化了前期市场的降息预期，使得本次利率调 整完全在市场预料之内。 9月美联储议息会议前后，金融市场出现了"买预期、卖事实"的现象。在美联储9月议息会议正式宣布降 息之前，市场对降息的预期极为强烈，并普遍将降息视为重大利多消息。但随着降息的正式落地，市场 情绪迅速转向。美国三大股指冲高回落，呈现出典型的"利多出尽"特征。美元指数呈现V形走势，背后 的核心原因在于美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上谨慎偏"鸽"的表态，这让市场清醒认识到，美联储并 未传递出"大幅宽松"的明确信号，后续政策仍将保持谨慎。对当前市场而言，接下来更核心的问题是： 在美国就业市场持续低迷、通胀黏性未完全消退，且白宫不断施加政策压力的背景下，美联储接下来如 何把控降息节奏和降息幅度？ 从政治维度看，当前政治层面的不确定性虽对降息节奏构成潜在影响，但短期难以扭转"渐进调整"的政 策主线。若美联储独立性受到 ...

当地时间周五，美联储新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰表示，在本周利率决议前，他仅与总统特朗普进行了简短 交谈，并未受到任何关于如何投票的压力。 在本周的美联储利率决议上，在12名有投票权的美联储官员中，11人支持降息25个基点。而米兰是唯一 的反对者，在本周被确认为美联储理事会成员之前，他曾担任白宫高级顾问。 米兰主张更大幅度地降息50个基点，他称这一决定完全出于独立判断。"我会根据自己对数据和经济的 解读做独立分析，我所做的就只有这些，也仅限于这些。" 米兰强调："周二早上他打电话来祝贺我就职，仅此而已。我没有与他讨论如何投票，也没有透露我在 《经济预测摘要》中'点阵图'的位置。" 点阵图显示，在19名与会者中，有7人预计今年不会再降息，另有两人预计只会再降息一次。这些预测 还显示，在目前对经济活动稳健的展望下，大多数官员预计明年不会再多次降息。 自特朗普今年1月开启第二个任期以来，围绕美联储独立性的质疑不断升温。 特朗普一直强烈要求美联储大幅降息，并公开对主席鲍威尔进行人身攻击，称其为"太慢先生"。相比之 下，历届政府对美联储的压力通常更为低调。 与此同时，特朗普还试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克，并表示在明年挑选鲍威尔 ...

特朗普不仅频繁批评鲍威尔，还寻求罢免美联储理事库克，并表示将对明年鲍威尔继任人选进行"宽松 政策立场测试"，要求候选人支持进一步降息。 外界曾质疑米兰担任理事前曾是总统经济顾问委员会负责人，却只采取"休假"而非辞职方式离职，可能 存在潜在利益冲突。对此，米兰回应称这些担忧"有些可笑"，并表示他只会任职至2026年1月。 "如果总统告诉我，他希望我在2026年1月后继续留任，我会立刻辞职，没有任何犹豫。"米兰说道。他 补充称，外界质疑反而促使他计划在下周一的讲话中"详细解释"自己与其他理事观点为何差异巨大，并 向公众进行全面说明。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储理事米兰周五接受采访时表示，在本周的利率决议前，他仅与美国总统特朗 普进行了简短通话，并未受到任何投票压力。 米兰透露，特朗普于周二上午致电祝贺他担任美联储理事，但双方并未讨论利率决策或经济预测相关内 容。米兰强调："我没有和他谈论我的投票立场。" 在本周的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上，美联储以11比1的投票结果决定降息25个基点，将联邦基 金利率区间降至4.00%-4.25%。米兰是唯一的反对票，他主张一次性降息50个基点，立场明显更为宽 松。他的 ...

on Monday, will you go into this so-called notion of a third mandate regarding moderate longer term rates. >> Oh, this is so silly. You know, I just have a personality uh that I like thoroughess and I like completeness.And so, of course, I'm going to look at the statutes and I'm going to look at what Congress told the Fed. And so I literally read So I think you're referring to an article that that said that uh because I I read the I literally quoted the Federal Reserve Act in the statutes that that assigned ...