Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Trade Representative, Jamison Greer, has made controversial statements urging Canada and Mexico not to become export centers for countries like China, Vietnam, and Indonesia, indicating a desire for U.S. control over their trade policies [1][5]. Group 1: U.S.-Canada-Mexico Trade Relations - Greer criticized Canada and Mexico for their tariffs on foreign cars, suggesting that the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) has issues, yet acknowledged that both countries are significant export markets for the U.S. [3][5]. - There are indications that Trump may consider withdrawing from the USMCA, despite its stipulations requiring member countries to maintain the agreement until 2036 [5][9]. - Greer proposed the idea of negotiating separately with Canada and Mexico, arguing that their economic relationships with the U.S. are distinct, which contradicts the original intent of the trilateral agreement [7]. Group 2: Global Trade Dynamics - Greer’s comments reflect a unilateral approach to trade, attempting to dictate terms to Canada and Mexico while downplaying their economic independence and needs [12]. - The interconnectedness of global supply chains makes it impractical for the U.S. to enforce a complete decoupling from China, as this could adversely affect American businesses as well [3][12]. - Canada and Mexico are actively seeking to diversify their trade relationships, as evidenced by Mexico's efforts to upgrade its free trade agreement with the EU to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [10][12].

12月3日，亚邦股份（603188.SH）发布公告称，其持股15%的参股公司江苏仁欣环保科技有限公司（以 下简称"仁欣环保"）已收到江苏省灌南县人民法院送达的《民事裁定书》，法院裁定受理仁欣环保破产 清算申请。 破产清算 公告披露，此次破产清算申请由债权人灌南诚挚化工设备销售有限公司（以下简称"诚挚化工"）提出。 据悉，诚挚化工对仁欣环保享有22.92万元到期债权，经法院强制执行后未获任何清偿，而仁欣环保当 前财产已不足以清偿全部债务，符合《企业破产法》规定的破产清算情形，灌南县人民法院据此裁定受 理该申请，并确认对本案具有管辖权。 仁欣环保成立于2015年1月，注册资本1亿元，经营范围包括环保科技研发，处理利用废硫酸、废盐酸， 生产工业硫酸镁、工业氯化镁、工业盐等。亚邦股份持有仁欣环保15%股权。 根据法院指定，江苏公善民律师事务所担任仁欣环保破产管理人，李传斌为管理人负责人。按照破产清 算程序要求，仁欣环保的债权人需于2026年1月10日前向管理人申报债权，未按期申报者可在破产财产 分配方案提交债权人会议讨论前补充申报；灌南县人民法院定于2026年1月16日上午9时30分在第二审判 庭召开第一次债权人会议 ...

近日有消息称，受美国关税政策等因素影响，今年韩国汽车全年出口量预计将出现5年来首次下滑。 消息称，出口下滑主要由于韩国最大汽车出口市场——对美国的出口减少导致。今年1至10月，韩国对 美汽车出口为约110.75万辆，同比减少7.9%。业内担忧美国关税政策及贸易保护主义长期化，对韩国汽 车出口构成更大压力。 韩国汽车移动产业协会预测，今年韩国汽车出口量在271万至272万辆之间，较去年278.26万辆减少约 2.3%至2.6%。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Economic Outlook - The global economy is entering a mild stagflation phase, with growth expected at 2.7% in 2025 and inflation at 3.9% [1] - Major economies like the US and UK are experiencing inflation rates above targets, while the Eurozone is gradually returning to normal [1] - Global trade growth is projected to slow from 2% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026, with significant impacts on GDP for exporting countries [5] Central Bank Policies - Central banks are facing challenges of weak growth, persistent inflation, and rising fiscal deficits, leading to a divergence in monetary policies [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates to a terminal range of 3.25-3.50% by mid-2026, while the European Central Bank will maintain stable rates [7] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to continue raising rates towards 1.0% due to high core inflation [7] Trade and Investment - The ongoing trade war is primarily impacting exporters, with US consumers facing inflation increases of 0.6 percentage points by mid-2026 [5] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) pledges in the US could reach 6% of GDP by 2026-2028, indicating significant costs for source countries [5] - The EU's "Rearm Europe Plan" allocates EUR800 billion over four years for military procurement, but production constraints may hinder rapid capacity increases [11] Corporate Financing - Companies are adapting to high financing costs by enhancing operational efficiency, renegotiating contracts, and exploring alternative financing sources [12] - Despite lower policy rates, corporate loan demand remains muted in the Eurozone, while the US sees an increase in corporate loans [12] - A peak in global business insolvencies is expected in 2027, with increases of 6% and 4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [13] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are experiencing rising imbalances, with some countries facing debt and current account deficit risks [15] - Asian exporters are gaining market shares in the US, but the economic outlook is turning grim, leading to accelerated policy rate cuts in many emerging markets [15] - The Chinese economy is expected to slow down into 2026 due to contracting exports and soft domestic demand [15] Risks and Uncertainties - Heightened protectionism poses a 45% probability of leading to a global trade recession, negatively impacting growth and inflation [16] - A potential de-dollarization shock could push the EUR/USD above 1.25, with a 35% probability [16] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts involving NATO and Russia, as well as China and Taiwan, present significant risks to the economic outlook [16]

《阿曼日报》11月28日报道，国家统计信息中心发布的数据显示，尽管自2025年4月以来阿曼受到 全球贸易保护主义政策升级，关税加征的影响，但今年阿曼非石油出口量仍持续增长。阿曼非石油出口 量及其占阿曼出口总额的比重均较上年有所增长。截至2025年第三季度末，阿曼非石油出口总额超过50 亿阿曼里亚尔，而去年同期为45亿里亚尔，增幅达10.3%。非石油出口占出口总额的比例从2024年9月 底的26%（总额为199亿里亚尔）上升到2025年9月底的29%（总额为172亿里亚尔）。 本年度非石油出口增长主要得益于化工及相关行业出口额的显著提升，截至2025年第三季度末，化 工行业出口总额达6.58亿阿曼里亚尔，增幅达14.5%。机械及电气设备出口额增幅高达150%，达到4.6亿 阿曼里亚尔。 （原标题：阿曼非石油出口逆势持续增长，超过50亿里亚尔） ...

Group 1: Trade Policies and Tariffs - After Trump's administration, the U.S. trade policy became more aggressive, particularly regarding the trade deficit with the EU, leading to a rapid assessment of additional tariffs on EU steel products [1] - The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on steel in March, significantly reducing German factory orders and disrupting supply chains [5] - On March 26, the U.S. announced a 25% tariff on EU automobiles, severely impacting brands like Mercedes and BMW, which account for about 20% of their global sales [3] Group 2: EU's Response and Negotiations - The EU planned to impose €1.8 billion in tariffs on U.S. agricultural and tech products as a countermeasure, but negotiations led to a temporary suspension of tariffs [5] - In July, the EU agreed to delay countermeasures and sought to negotiate a framework agreement with the U.S., which included a 15% base tariff on most EU goods [8][12] - The EU's concessions were seen as a reluctant choice under pressure from U.S. tariffs, revealing its structural dependencies, such as 60% of energy imports from the U.S. [15] Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - The agreement led to a gradual recovery of EU exports, but the automotive sector continued to face challenges, with German manufacturers experiencing a decline in U.S. sales [13][17] - The U.S. tariffs raised costs for European companies, particularly in the automotive industry, which is expected to face ongoing sales difficulties [17] - The EU's concessions did not resolve the underlying trade disputes and instead opened new areas of contention, particularly in digital sovereignty [19][21]

2025.12. 04 本文字数：1921，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 在审查期内，WTO成员平均每月发起32.3项贸易救济调查，略低于2024年预计的每月37.3项的峰 值。虽然贸易救济调查并不一定会导致措施的实施，但调查启动数量的增加通常预示着可能实施更多 措施。平均每月终止的贸易救济措施数量为11.4项，是2012年以来的最低水平之一，表明许多贸易救 济措施仍然有效。 贸易救济措施，特别是反倾销措施，仍然是许多WTO成员的重要贸易政策工具，占报告记录的所有 货物贸易措施的46.5%。 世贸组织（WTO）近日发布的年度《贸易措施监督报告》显示，在2024年10月中旬至2025年10月中 旬期间，全球商品进口额中受新关税和其他进口措施影响的部分较前12个月增长超过四倍，创下 WTO超过15年来贸易监测覆盖范围的最高纪录。 WTO总干事伊维拉表示， 全球贸易体系正在经历80年来最严重的动荡，单边关税措施大幅增加、地 缘政治紧张和区域冲突加剧。 她称，该报告中所述贸易措施数量及其覆盖的贸易额凸显了全球贸易环境动荡。"关税贸易覆盖范围 的急剧扩大反映了自年初以来我们所看到的贸易保护主义抬头。目 ...

Group 1: Global Trade Environment - The WTO's annual report indicates that the portion of global goods imports affected by new tariffs and other import measures is set to increase more than fourfold from the previous 12 months, reaching a record high in over 15 years of trade monitoring [1][6] - WTO Director-General Iweala stated that the global trade system is experiencing the most severe turmoil in 80 years, with a significant rise in unilateral tariff measures, geopolitical tensions, and regional conflicts [2] - Nearly one-fifth (19.7%) of global imports are impacted by tariffs and similar measures introduced since 2009, up from 12.6% a year ago [2] Group 2: Trade Growth Projections - The WTO forecasts a 2.4% growth in global goods trade for 2025, with a further 0.5% growth in 2026 [8] - The report highlights that the total trade affected by tariffs and other measures is approximately $29.66 billion, significantly higher than the previous report's $8.88 billion [6] Group 3: Service Trade Insights - The WTO predicts that global commercial services trade volume will grow by 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, outpacing the growth of goods trade [4] - Digital services are identified as a particularly dynamic sector, with expected growth rates of 6.1% and 5.6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [9] Group 4: Trade Policy and Challenges - Trade remedy measures, especially anti-dumping measures, remain a crucial trade policy tool for many WTO members, accounting for 46.5% of all recorded goods trade measures [7] - The report also notes that many developing economies continue to be marginalized in global service trade, missing opportunities for growth and employment [11]

在历史的十字路口，是筑起隔绝的"墙"，还是搭建开放的"桥"？面对经济全球化大势，任何一个国家， 无论大小强弱，一旦背离了潮流大势，终将落后于时代 国际经贸格局正处于深度变革之中。在世界贸易组织成立30周年之际，国际贸易体系呈现出两个突出特 点：一方面，个别国家发起的贸易战、关税战，严重冲击世界经济、损害国际贸易规则；另一方面，各 国面对挑战主动求变，各类区域和多边贸易协定激增。有国际观察人士担忧，全球经贸合作版图正被一 种由地缘政治博弈塑造的"丘陵地貌"所侵蚀。以规则为基础的多边贸易体制，这个曾经的世界经济"稳 定器"，正面临前所未有的考验。 长远看，世界需要一个什么样的经贸秩序？多边贸易体制将何去何从？回答这两个问题，需要以客观理 性的全方位观察为基础，在纷乱形势中把握人心所向、大势所趋，避免一叶障目，才能不断汇聚共识和 力量，推动国际经贸合作行稳致远。 面对危机，各方的"应激反应"有其必然性。过去几十年，经济全球化高速发展已形成各国利益的深度互 嵌——世界经济这片汪洋大海，不会因局部暗礁而改变奔涌方向。正如美国哥伦比亚大学教授杰弗里· 弗里登所指出，单一国家摒弃多边主义并不意味着多边贸易体系终结，只要其他 ...

从都国际庄园位于北纬23°的凤凰山下，远离政治中心和都市喧嚣，立足广州也关切全球。从都国际论 坛自2014年创办以来，共举办了九届，始终致力于促进对话、凝聚共识、推动交流合作。 在2025年论坛现场，关税、保护主义、单边主义是嘉宾发言时频繁提及的词，也是笼罩在全球经济上方 的阴霾。但对话的意义不仅在于厘清现实，更在于捍卫共识、谋求新路。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者赖镇桃 广州报道 12月1日至3日，2025从都国际论坛在广州举行。来自全球各地的30多位前国家元首、政府首脑、国际组 织负责人，以及100多位中外知名专家学者、国际友人和商界领袖等共200多位嘉宾齐聚一堂，共谋全球 发展大计，共商区域和全球合作。 "越有分歧，越要对话；越有挑战，越要交流。"从都论坛创办人、澳中友好交流协会会长、世界领袖联 盟亚太区主席、尼扎米·甘伽维国际中心全球联合主席周泽荣博士道出。 第73届联合国大会主席、厄瓜多尔前外长玛丽亚·费尔南达·埃斯皮诺萨向21世纪经济报道记者说，她依 然坚信世界贸易组织、世界银行等国际机构的价值，它们对于全球经济的运行至关重要，只是当今世界 已经发生了翻天覆地的变化，"我完全赞同中国发起的全球治 ...