Group 1: Rare Earth Export Controls - The Chinese government has announced significant upgrades to its rare earth export controls, including restrictions on various rare earth products and technologies [1][2] - The measures aim to prevent illegal diversion of rare earths to inappropriate uses, such as weapons, and to enhance national and global security [1] - The controlled items include rare earth magnetic materials and related components, with the government emphasizing that compliant export applications for civilian use will still be approved [2] Group 2: Response to U.S. Shipping Fees - In response to the U.S. imposing port fees on Chinese vessels, China has decided to implement special port fees on U.S. ships as a defensive measure [3] - The Chinese government views the U.S. actions as unilateralism and protectionism that harm both Chinese industries and U.S. economic interests, potentially increasing inflation and affecting port competitiveness [3] - China's countermeasures are described as necessary to maintain fair competition in international shipping and shipbuilding markets [3] Group 3: WTO Dispute Over U.S. Inflation Reduction Act - China is continuing its WTO dispute against the U.S. regarding the Inflation Reduction Act, which discriminates against Chinese products through specific subsidies [4] - The U.S. has terminated certain subsidies related to electric vehicles, which China sees as a corrective step, but other discriminatory measures remain in place [4] - China is committed to defending its domestic industries and maintaining a rules-based multilateral trading system through ongoing litigation [4] Group 4: Dutch Intervention in Semiconductor Sector - The Dutch government has ordered a freeze on the operations of Nexperia, a subsidiary of China's Wingtech Technology, affecting asset and IP adjustments [5] - The Chinese semiconductor industry association has condemned this intervention, arguing it violates market principles and harms the business environment in the Netherlands [5] - China has expressed concerns over U.S. influence in Dutch policies, particularly regarding the "penetration rules" that threaten the rights of Chinese enterprises [5][6] Group 5: Call for Fair Business Practices - China urges the Netherlands to respect market principles and correct its actions to protect the rights of Chinese investors, emphasizing the need for a fair and predictable business environment [6] - The Chinese government is prepared to take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of its enterprises in response to foreign interventions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The global plastics and rubber industry is facing significant challenges due to trade barriers and geopolitical tensions, which are undermining market confidence and disrupting supply chain stability [1][8]. Group 1: Trade Barriers and Their Impact - The Düsseldorf International Plastics and Rubber Exhibition highlighted concerns over U.S. tariffs and trade measures, with exhibitors expressing worries about their impact on the industry [1][3]. - Tariff measures have caused notable disruptions at the supply chain level, leading to increased market demand volatility and greater operational pressure on companies [3][5]. - Many exhibitors reported that tariffs have resulted in a loss of direction for businesses, exacerbating the complexities of supply and logistics systems [5][7]. Group 2: Industry Perspectives - Exhibitors emphasized the need for stability in trade policies, as the current environment has led to inventory backlogs and fluctuating demand patterns [5][6]. - There is a widespread criticism of protectionism within the industry, with calls for open trade and cooperation as essential for ongoing innovation and global expansion [8]. - Industry professionals urged policymakers to create a more predictable environment for global supply chains, allowing innovation and sustainable development to thrive without being hindered by political instability [8].

10月10日，特朗普在社交平台上一声怒吼，威胁要给所有中国商品扣上高达100%的关税，甚至拟定了11月1日这个生效日期，仿佛要用雷霆万钧之势一举定 乾坤。 言论一出，华尔街立刻上演了一场惊魂记，短短一天之内，美股市场超过1.65万亿美元的市值凭空蒸发。 就在市场以为一场风暴无可避免时，白宫内部却刮起了"降温风"。先是贸易代表格里尔，这位被视为强硬派莱特希泽下属的官员，公开表示不希望发生贸易 战，寻求的是一种"平衡的贸易关系"。 史密森尼学会旗下的几十家博物馆和国家动物园被迫关门谢客，公共服务陷入停滞。航空系统更是乱成一锅粥，由于空管人员短缺，一天之内就有近8000架 次航班延误，超过270架次被直接取消。 在这场国内危机愈演愈烈之时，特朗普却远赴中东，在以色列和埃及参加活动，给外界留下了"领导力真空"的强烈印象。屋漏偏逢连夜雨，最高法院的一纸 判决，暂时阻止了他解除美联储理事莉萨·库克职务的尝试，进一步凸显其行政权力正受到严峻挑战。 短短24小时，从极限施压到紧急灭火，这态度转变之快，让人瞠目结舌。究竟是什么样的国内压力，能让一向强硬的"关税侠"收回自己挥出的重拳？答案， 就藏在美国国内一触即发的危机之中。 ...

据美国彭博新闻社报道，美国高盛集团10月12日发布的最新研究显示，关税对美国消费者价格的传导已 进入加速期，这不仅给美国国债市场增添不确定性，更意味着美国消费者正成为关税成本的最终主要承 担者。高盛经济学家埃尔西·彭与戴维·梅里克尔在报告中测算，截至今年6月，除了美国企业为维持市场 份额仍承担64%的关税成本，消费者承担22%；若最新一轮关税延续既往模式，到年底消费者负担比例 将飙升至55%，企业承担比例则降至22%。 美国经济分析局的数据显示，作为美联储核心通胀指标，8月美国核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数 同比上涨2.9%，为2月以来新高水平。高盛集团预测受关税推动，年底该指数将升至3%，今年以来关税 已累计推升核心个人消费支出价格0.44%。上游生产端的成本压力更为显著，美国劳工统计局8月发布 数据显示，7月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比涨幅0.9%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅；同比涨幅达3.3%， 远高于6月份的2.3%和市场预期的2.6%，为今年2月以来最高水平。美国有线电视新闻网指出，生产商 成本的急剧上升，预示着更高价格将很快转嫁给消费者。 高盛集团的报告还指出，美国政府通过一系列关税及贸易限 ...

据美国彭博新闻社报道，美国高盛集团10月12日发布的最新研究显示，关税对美国消费者价格的传导已 进入加速期，这不仅给美国国债市场增添不确定性，更意味着美国消费者正成为关税成本的最终主要承 担者。高盛经济学家埃尔西·彭与戴维·梅里克尔在报告中测算，截至今年6月，除了美国企业为维持市场 份额仍承担64%的关税成本，消费者承担22%；若最新一轮关税延续既往模式，到年底消费者负担比例 将飙升至55%，企业承担比例则降至22%。 高盛集团的报告还指出，美国政府通过一系列关税及贸易限制措施打乱了全球贸易秩序，尽管美国政府 官员坚称贸易伙伴会承担关税成本，但实际情况是美国进口商需向美国海关及边境保护局缴纳关税，而 当企业将关税成本转嫁时，消费者将面临更高的商品价格。 耶鲁大学预算实验室日前发布研究显示，新加征关税已将美国平均有效关税率推升至18.3%，创1934年 以来最高水平。该实验室评估，这些加征关税预计今年将使美国家庭平均额外支出增加2400美元，其中 服装、鞋类价格短期内可能分别上涨38%和40%。更值得关注的是，关税本质上属于累退税，在短期内 尤为明显。这意味着，如果以税负占收入的比例衡量，收入最低的家庭承担的关 ...

智利《信使报》10月10日报道，根据特朗普政令，美国将于10月14日起分别对进口 软木和锯木加征10%关税、对木质品加征25%关税。此外，如智官方无法与特达成新协 议，自2026年1月始，上述税率将分别升至30%和50%。美是智木材重要出口市场，高 额关税将给该国林业带来严重冲击，相关中小企业难以承受之重。 （原标题：智利林业部门认为美加征木材关税将是一场灾难） ...

"早期迹象表明，美国企业和消费者正承受着美国新关税的冲击，这与美国总统特朗普的说法相矛盾，并使美联储抗击通胀变得 更加复杂。" 路透社近日的一篇报道指出，美国总统特朗普曾预言，外国将为其"保护主义政策"买单——他赌别国出口商为了在美国消费市场 站稳脚跟，宁愿自行消化这部分成本。 然而学术研究、市场调查和企业评论都表明，在特朗普政府新贸易政策实施的头几个月，美国企业承担了贸易费用，并将部分费 用转嫁给美国消费者，而且商品价格可能会进一步上涨。 路透社网站报道截图 谁在承担关税？ 报道指出，哈佛大学教授阿尔贝托·卡瓦洛和其他两名研究人员持续追踪了美国主要线上及线下零售商超过30万种商品的价格变 动，涵盖从地毯到咖啡等各类商品。 他们发现，自美国政府3月初开始征收关税以来，进口商品价格上涨了4%，而美国国内产品价格上涨了2%。其中，进口增幅最大 的是美国国内无法生产的商品，比如咖啡。或来自土耳其等受到严重关税"惩罚"国家的商品。 路透社网站报道截图 报道认为，这一切都为美国通胀上升埋下了伏笔。波士顿联邦储备银行的一项"粗略估算"预测，关税将使核心通胀率上升75个基 点。彼得森国际经济研究所估计，如果不开征关税，未来 ...

此次，IMF预计，全球经济增长将从2024年的3.3%降至2025年的3.2%，比7月上调了0.2个百分点； 2026年则会降至3.1%，与此前预期没有变化。虽然此次预测较4月和7月的展望有所上调，但比作为基 准的2024年10月的展望均有大幅下调，意味着IMF预计全球经济仍将显著低于疫情前3.7%的平均水平。 此前，4月美国特朗普政府的关税冲击及其带来的不确定性促使2025年4月的展望报告将2025年全球增长 预测下调0.5个百分点至2.8%。随后，在7月的展望中，主要由于关税税率的降低及其对金融状况的影 响，IMF又将2025年全球增长预测小幅上调0.2个百分点至3.0%。 在IMF看来，虽然全球经济对贸易政策冲击表现出了弹性，但越来越多迹象表明，贸易保护主义措施的 不利影响开始显现。比如，美国核心通胀率上升，失业率小幅上升。其他多个国家的通胀也长期处于央 行目标之上，通胀预期仍然脆弱，随着不确定性和关税开始对经济活动造成压力，货币政策制定者的权 衡更加恶化。此外，随着全球经济陷入更加碎片化的格局，前景下行风险也在增加。从长远来看，生产 资源的再分配、技术脱钩和知识扩散的限制必然会抑制增长。 IMF认为， ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts global growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, reflecting a gradual adaptation to trade tensions [1] - The global economic growth rate is significantly below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7%, with a projected annualized growth rate of 3.0% from the second half of 2025 to 2026 [1] - The IMF emphasizes that the current economic environment is influenced by geopolitical conflicts, debt pressures, and climate change, leading to increased uncertainty [2] Group 2: Trade and Tariff Impacts - The U.S. has implemented new tariffs on various imported goods, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and a 100% tariff on patented drugs, which has drawn strong opposition from multiple countries [2][3] - The IMF warns that the full impact of tariff policies has yet to manifest, with rising corporate profits potentially leading to increased inflationary pressures [3] - The world trade volume is expected to see a moderate decline over the next five years, with a projected average growth rate of 2.9% for 2025-2026, lower than previous forecasts [3] Group 3: Regional Economic Predictions - The U.S. economic growth is forecasted at 2.0% and 2.1% for the next two years, reflecting improvements due to lower effective tariff rates and fiscal stimulus from legislation [5] - The Eurozone is expected to see moderate growth, with predictions of 1.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, influenced by high uncertainty and increased tariffs [5] - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to slow from 4.3% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, with significant downgrades for low-income countries compared to middle-income economies [6] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Global inflation is expected to decrease to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, with significant variations across countries [8] - The U.S. inflation is projected to rise again in late 2025 due to the impact of tariffs being passed on to consumers, with a return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target expected by 2027 [8] - The IMF anticipates that the U.S. federal funds rate will decline to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of 2025, while the Eurozone's policy rate is expected to remain at 2% [8] Group 5: Currency and Trade Balance - The U.S. dollar has depreciated significantly in 2025, with a decline of approximately 10.8% in the first half of the year, which may enhance export competitiveness and reduce import-driven inflation [10] - The IMF notes that while the weaker dollar amplifies tariff impacts, it also supports global trade and provides policymakers in emerging markets with more room to support their economies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has implemented special port fees on vessels with American elements, which China views as unilateral and discriminatory actions that violate international trade rules and agreements [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Measures and China's Response - On October 14, the U.S. officially imposed port fees on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors as a result of a Section 301 investigation [3]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized these measures as protectionist and harmful to China's shipping and shipbuilding industries, asserting that they undermine fair competition [1][3]. - In retaliation, China announced special port fees on vessels associated with American flags, companies, or ownership [1]. Group 2: Impact on Global Trade and Supply Chains - The U.S. measures are expected to disrupt global supply chains, significantly increase international trade costs, and contribute to inflation in the U.S., ultimately harming its own port competitiveness and employment [3]. - The Chinese government emphasized that the U.S. actions could negatively affect the stability of global supply chains and the resilience of the U.S. supply chain [3]. Group 3: Specific Countermeasures by China - China has placed five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Corporation on a countermeasure list due to their support of U.S. investigations against China, prohibiting domestic organizations and individuals from engaging in transactions with them [4][5]. - The countermeasures are based on China's national security and anti-foreign sanctions laws, reflecting a structured response to perceived threats against its maritime and shipbuilding industries [5]. Group 4: Dialogue and Negotiation Stance - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reiterated its willingness to engage in dialogue while firmly opposing U.S. threats and unilateral actions, emphasizing the need for mutual respect and cooperation [6][7]. - China maintains that it is open to negotiations but will respond decisively to any aggressive measures from the U.S., highlighting the importance of maintaining a stable economic relationship [7].