自2017年特朗普政府推行以"美国优先"为核心的贸易政策以来，关税手段成为其实现所谓"制造业回 流"与"经济复兴"的关键工具。八年过去，多项分析显示，这一贸易保护主义政策并未带来预期的长期 繁荣，反而对美国经济结构和全球贸易体系造成持续性影响。青岛银行首席经济学家刘晓曙在接受《金 融时报》专访时指出，美国正为短期利益付出长期代价，全球多边贸易秩序也在这一过程中面临重构。 实际数据表明，多个经济体正在调整贸易合作方向，以降低对美国市场的依赖。欧盟对华贸易比重有所 上升，而对美贸易占比呈下降趋势；加拿大、东盟等国也出现类似的结构性变化。这类调整意味着，全 球贸易网络正在持续多元化。 "在关键技术领域，欧洲通过《芯片法案》明确要求提升自主产能，以减少对美技术的依赖。"刘晓曙表 示，美国虽然拥有市场和技术的显著优势，但单边保护主义政策可能加速削弱其在全球价值链中的传统 核心地位。 货币政策的两难：就业与通胀的平衡挑战 美联储当前面临"最大就业"与"稳定物价"这两重使命之间的艰难权衡。 刘晓曙 青岛银行首席经济学家。清华大学理学博士、厦门大学经济学博士、中国人民大学金融学博士 后。2008年获"中国卓越研究奖"。 短期 ...

Summary of Cleanroom Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cleanroom industry benefits from the restructuring of the semiconductor supply chain and import substitution, with major domestic semiconductor companies like SMIC planning capital expenditures that create order opportunities for cleanroom firms, indicating growth potential in the domestic market [1] - Changes in the global supply chain and rising trade protectionism are driving new investment projects in North America, Singapore, and Southeast Asia, providing overseas order opportunities for cleanroom companies, which also show growth potential in international markets [1] Core Demand Insights - The electronics industry, including semiconductors and LCD panels, is the primary source of demand for cleanrooms, accounting for over 55% of total demand. Other growing sectors include pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and renewable energy, supported by high-end manufacturing policies [1][5] - The cleanroom market is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% in the coming years, driven by increased investment in the healthcare sector due to an aging population and breakthroughs in innovative drugs [5] Competitive Landscape - The cleanroom industry exhibits a highly concentrated competitive landscape, with a limited number of companies capable of undertaking high-end projects. Large capital expenditure projects require extensive historical experience, solidifying the competitive position of large, qualified firms [1][6] - Deep Sanda A holds a significant share of the domestic high-end cleanroom projects, while companies like Yaxiang Integration, Shenghui Integration, and Baicheng Co. are relatively smaller in scale [1][7] Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply structure in the cleanroom industry is expected to remain stable, but demand is likely to continue growing, providing substantial development space for related companies [7] - Companies such as Deep Sanda A, Yaxiang Integration, Shenghui Integration, and Baicheng Co. are analyzed, with Deep Sanda being the largest cleanroom listed company in the market [7] Investment Strategies - For domestic market focus, companies like Deep Sanda, Shenghui, Yaxiang, and Baicheng have opportunities due to anticipated growth in capital expenditures. For overseas markets, companies with Taiwanese backgrounds, such as Shenghui and Yaxiang, have advantages in international expansion [3][8] - When selecting investment targets, emphasis should be placed on companies with strong overseas capabilities, particularly those with competitive advantages and customer relationships, such as Shenghui Integration and Yaxiang Integration [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the characteristics and trends of the U.S., Eurozone, and Japanese government bond markets in the first half of 2025, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic factors, monetary policy, and market supply-demand dynamics on government bond yields. Group 1: U.S. Government Bond Market Characteristics - The overall yield curve for U.S. government bonds has declined, with significant decreases in medium- and long-term yields. As of June 30, 2025, the Federal Funds Rate was 4.33%, unchanged from the end of 2024, while the 2-year and 10-year bond yields fell by 53 and 34 basis points to 3.72% and 4.24%, respectively [2][3] - The yield spread between long-term and short-term bonds has widened, with the spread between 30-year and 2-year bonds increasing by 53 basis points to 1.06% [3] - There has been increased volatility in medium- and long-term bond yields, with the 30-year yield fluctuating between 5.08% and 4.41%, and the 10-year yield between 4.79% and 4.01% during the first half of 2025 [4] Group 2: Yield Inversion and Economic Concerns - A yield inversion occurred in the first quarter of 2025, raising concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession. As of March 31, 2025, the 3-month bond yield was 4.32%, higher than the 2-year yield of 3.89% [5] - The inversion eased in April and May but re-emerged in June, with the 3-month yield at 4.41% and the 10-year yield at 4.24%, indicating ongoing market apprehension [5] Group 3: Influencing Factors on Bond Yields - Expectations of interest rate cuts have driven down short- and medium-term bond yields, with the Federal Reserve having cut rates by 100 basis points in 2024 and potentially signaling further cuts in the second half of 2025 [7] - Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, have increased demand for U.S. government bonds as a safe-haven asset, leading to a stronger positioning of U.S. bonds in institutional portfolios [8] - The impact of trade protectionism under the Trump administration has led to significant fluctuations in long-term bond yields, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.5% and the 30-year yield exceeding 5% due to heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies [9]

Group 1: Export Performance - In August, South Korea's exports to the US recorded the largest decline since May 2020, with a year-on-year drop of 12.0% to $8.74 billion, primarily due to high tariffs on key products like automobiles and steel [1][2] - Among the 15 main export categories to the US, 11 experienced a decline, with steel exports plummeting by 32.1%, ordinary machinery down 12.8%, and secondary batteries down 23.7% [2][3] - August marked the first time in two years that South Korea's monthly exports to the US fell below $9 billion, indicating a significant impact from the ongoing tariff situation [3] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector in South Korea has shown continuous contraction, with the manufacturing PMI at 48.3 in August, remaining below the neutral line of 50 for seven consecutive months [4] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and global trade risks is contributing to a deteriorating manufacturing environment, with potential negative effects on overall economic confidence [4] Group 3: Investment Commitments - Disagreements over a $350 billion investment commitment between South Korea and the US are complicating bilateral trade relations, with the US requiring a detailed implementation plan before considering tariff reductions [5][6] - The South Korean government plans to allocate $150 billion to the shipbuilding industry and $200 billion to strategic sectors like semiconductors and batteries, but the US demands a higher proportion of direct investment [5][6] - The ongoing negotiations have led to a stalemate, with the US insisting on "discretionary funds" from South Korea, which has been met with resistance from the South Korean side [6]

Core Insights - The trade protectionism policies initiated by the Trump administration have not resulted in the anticipated long-term economic prosperity, instead causing structural impacts on the U.S. economy and the global trade system [1] Group 1: Short-term Gains vs Long-term Costs - The asymmetric tariff design has led to a short-term increase in manufacturing capacity in the U.S., with companies like Samsung and TSMC announcing investments in the U.S. [2] - Long-term, U.S. manufacturers relying on global supply chains face rising cost pressures, with a reported average increase of 37% in total supply chain costs for companies relocating production to Mexico and Vietnam [2] - Tariff policies have raised import prices, eroding consumer purchasing power, with Goldman Sachs indicating that the cost burden on consumers could rise from 22% to 67% if tariffs persist [2] Group 2: Shifts in Trade Relationships - The U.S. is experiencing a weakening of its central position in global trade as countries adjust their trade partnerships to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [3] - The EU has increased its trade share with China while decreasing its trade with the U.S., indicating a structural shift in global trade networks [3] - In key technology sectors, Europe is enhancing its domestic production capabilities to lessen dependence on U.S. technology, which may further diminish the U.S.'s traditional core position in global value chains [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces a difficult balance between maximizing employment and stabilizing prices, with recent data showing a decline in employment indicators [4] - Inflation remains a concern, with the core consumer price index rising to 3.1%, complicating the Fed's monetary policy options [4] - Tariff policies are expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures, and premature interest rate cuts to support employment could intensify inflation risks [4] Group 4: Economic Growth Constraints - Despite short-term resilience in the U.S. economy, factors such as government debt, inflation risks, and tariff impacts are creating multiple constraints on growth [6] - The federal government debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with rising interest payments crowding out public investment and increasing market rates [6] - If tariffs are fully implemented, GDP growth could decline by an average of 0.5 percentage points annually from 2025 to 2026, with significant price increases for consumer goods [6]

Group 1 - The trade friction between India and the United States has escalated, with the U.S. imposing tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, leading to strong protests from Indian officials [1] - The U.S. government's punitive tariffs are primarily a response to India's significant increase in oil imports from Russia during the Ukraine conflict, which the U.S. views as undermining sanctions against Russia [3] - India has been importing Russian oil at discounted prices, refining it, and exporting the finished products globally, including to the U.S., which accounts for 23% of India's refined product exports [3][4] Group 2 - India's government defends its actions by stating that importing Russian oil and exporting refined products has created economic benefits and helped stabilize global energy prices, contributing to alleviating inflation pressures in Western countries [4] - The U.S. initially encouraged India to increase Russian oil imports to stabilize the global energy market, but has since reversed its stance, leading to feelings of betrayal in India [4] - The U.S. domestic refining industry is facing intense competition from Indian refined products, which are produced at a cost 10-20 USD/ton lower than European counterparts, resulting in a decline in U.S. refinery utilization rates [4][6] Group 3 - The Trump administration's actions are seen as a strategy to protect U.S. domestic interests while indirectly targeting Russian energy revenues and pressuring Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict [6] - Analysts suggest that India has become a victim of the complex geopolitical dynamics, where the weaker party often bears the brunt of pressure in international relations [6]

Group 1 - The Mexican government is preparing to increase tariffs on Chinese goods to "protect domestic enterprises," but the deeper reason is to "appease the United States" [1] - Since Trump's return to the White House, his administration has pressured Mexico to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, citing concerns that Chinese products could enter the U.S. market through Mexico [3] - Mexico's previous plans to establish a "North American fortress" aimed at strengthening trade among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, effectively blocking Chinese goods [3] Group 2 - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs firmly opposes Mexico's potential tariff increases on Chinese goods under U.S. pressure, emphasizing the importance of Mexico's independence as a sovereign nation [5] - The Chinese government warns that if Mexico chooses to align with the U.S. at the expense of Chinese interests, it may face retaliatory measures from China [5] - Mexico's economy heavily relies on trade with China, which is its second-largest trading partner, with a total trade volume of $109.426 billion last year [7] Group 3 - Increasing tariffs on Chinese goods may provide short-term political benefits for Mexico but could harm its own economy due to reliance on Chinese components and equipment [7] - Mexico's exports to China, including oil and electrical equipment, may not easily find alternative markets, risking significant economic losses [7] - The concept of "independence" is highlighted as both a warning and a potential path forward for Mexico, emphasizing the need for long-term strategic thinking [7]

Core Insights - The trade negotiations between the U.S. and China reflect a clash of two distinct economic philosophies: Trump's profit-driven mindset versus China's robust supply chain capabilities [1] - The U.S. manufacturing sector's reliance on Chinese supply chains is highlighted by the recent tariff exemptions for critical products, indicating a significant dependency [1] - Major semiconductor companies have shifted their stance from supporting hardline policies against China to advocating for supply chain stability, revealing a pragmatic approach driven by economic interests [2] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - The U.S. has intensified targeted actions against China's tech sector, including export controls on AI companies and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which may backfire by harming U.S. companies [4] - Trump's introduction of military topics into trade discussions was swiftly rejected by China, demonstrating China's control over the negotiation agenda [4] - The U.S. is caught in a dilemma, wanting to restrict China's technological advancements while simultaneously needing to maintain its own industrial operations [6] Group 2: China's Supply Chain Strength - China dominates the global rare earth industry, controlling nearly 90% of refining capabilities, which poses a significant barrier for the U.S. [5] - By 2025, China's export reliance on the U.S. is projected to decrease from 19% in 2018 to 15%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics and a diversification of trade partners [6] - High-value exports from China, such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries, are becoming increasingly important, showcasing the country's evolving export structure [6] Group 3: Future Negotiation Landscape - The U.S. has postponed decisions on tariff exemptions, reflecting a reluctant concession to the realities of the supply chain interdependence [7] - The balance of power in the U.S.-China relationship is shifting, with China gaining more leverage in negotiations due to its control over critical supply chains [9] - The next round of negotiations will see the U.S. facing a resilient Chinese economy that has adapted to pressures and found new growth drivers [12]

«——【·前言·】——» 新德里向世界贸易组织提交申诉，指控美国关税构成 "歧视性贸易限制"，并拟定针对美国豆类、坚果等农产品和化工产品的反制清 单。 紧接着 4 月推出的 "对等关税" 政策中，美国又对印度商品额外加征 26% 关税，进一步将贸易战升级。印度政府的反击同样迅速而精 准。 印度在与美国这场关税战中，莫迪对美的表现是如此的硬气。 特朗普政府对印度输美商品挥起的关税大棒，最终敲碎了两国精心维系的战略伙伴幻象。2025 年 8 月 30 日，《纽约时报》披露的消 息证实，美国总统特朗普已正式取消原定秋季访问印度并出席美日印澳四方安全对话（QUAD）峰会的计划。 这一决定并非临时起意，而是两国关系持续恶化的必然结果。早在今年 2 月，美国就以 "国家安全" 为由对进口钢铝产品加征 25% 关 税，作为全球第二大粗钢生产国的印度直接遭受 76 亿美元出口损失，钢铁和铝制品等核心产业首当其冲。 «——【·美印关系骤降·】——» 在中印建交 75 周年的背景下，莫迪强调愿以 "相互尊重、互利互惠" 为基础推进双边关系，特别提及要在上合框架内加强经贸合作与 战略沟通。 这种针锋相对让原本计划 8 月举行的印美 ...

刘晓曙 青岛银行（002948）首席经济学家。清华大学理学博士、厦门大学经济学博士、中国人民大学 金融学博士后。2008年获"中国卓越研究奖"。 在全球经济一体化深度融合的背景下，美国作为世界第一大经济体，其政策动向始终牵动着全球市场的 神经。2017年特朗普政府上台后，将关税政策视为"让美国再次伟大"的核心工具，以"美国优先"为旗 帜，对包括中国、欧盟在内的多个贸易伙伴加征关税，掀起了一轮席卷全球的贸易保护主义浪潮。这一 政策在初期曾被认为能短期提振美国本土产业、吸引制造业回流，但随着时间的推移，其复杂后果逐渐 显现。青岛银行首席经济学家刘晓曙在接受《金融时报》记者专访时表示，种种迹象表明，特朗普的关 税政策并非一剂"强心针"，而是给美国经济乃至全球贸易体系刻下了一道难以愈合的"制度性疤痕"。 关税政策的短期利好与长期隐忧 《金融时报》记者：特朗普政府的关税政策在近期进入关键阶段，对美国经济产生了多方面影响。您认 为关税政策对美国消费者、企业以及整体经济增长和就业的长期影响会是怎样的？ 刘晓曙：特朗普关税政策是为了实现所谓"让美国再次伟大"的政治目标。但是从根本上，贸易保护主义 无法创造繁荣，反而会损害美国 ...