与此同时，美国消费者预计通胀在可预见的未来仍将居高不下，从而削弱其预算的潜在购买力。 调查还显示，今年一整年，美国消费者普遍担心劳动力市场出现恶化。12月，约63%的消费者预计未来 一年失业率将上升，这一比例远高于去年同期的40%。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:马俊卿】 密歇根大学发布的12月当前经济状况指数终值降至50.4，低于11月份的51.1，也低于去年12月份的 75.1。消费者预期指数升至54.6，高于11月份的51.0，但同样低于去年12月份的73.3。 调查显示，尽管消费者信心指数有所改善，但比2024年12月仍低近30%。高物价和关税影响依旧是美国 消费者在大笔购物时最为关注的问题。约47%的受调查消费者自述高物价给个人财务造成压力，这一比 例与11月持平，高于去年同期的35%。 新华社纽约12月19日电（记者徐静）美国密歇根大学19日发布的调查数据显示，美国12月消费者信心指 数终值上升至52.9，高于11月的51.0，但远低于去年12月的74.0。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economy has shown unexpected resilience in 2025, with trade volumes increasing despite initial pessimistic forecasts due to trade tensions and inflation concerns [2][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance - By the end of 2025, China's total import and export volume reached 37.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.6% increase compared to the previous year [6]. - China's share in global trade rose to approximately 15%, indicating a strengthening position in the international market [11]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics - China has shifted its trade focus towards emerging markets such as ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, which have shown greater demand elasticity, thus supporting trade growth [8][11]. - The adjustment in trade strategy is not merely a replacement but has resulted in new growth increments [11]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The release of the R1 model by DeepSeek signifies China's capability to advance in technology, challenging the dominance of a few countries in the field of large models [13]. - International investment institutions, including Goldman Sachs, are reassessing Chinese assets based on technological progress, influenced by the contrasting economic conditions between the U.S. and China [13][15]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - Domestic consumption accounts for less than 40% of GDP, significantly lower than the global average of 55%, indicating weak internal demand [17]. - The income distribution structure in China is imbalanced, with households receiving only 60.6% of national income, which is below the global average, affecting consumer spending [19][21]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - Short-term measures like trade-in programs have temporarily boosted sales but are not sustainable for long-term structural change [23]. - A focus on improving income distribution mechanisms is essential, particularly for workers in small and medium enterprises, to enhance consumer spending capacity [23][25].

欧洲央行维持政策利率不变，预计欧元区通胀将在2028年接近2%，并重申将采取逐次会议评估的方 式；市场正在分析在经济增长预期上调背景下未来加息的风险。 欧洲央行维持政策利率不变，预计欧元区通胀将在2028年接近2%，并重申将采取逐次会议评估的方 式；市场正在分析在经济增长预期上调背景下未来加息的风险。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

威廉姆斯周五在接受采访时指出，美联储此前已在连续三次政策会议上实施降息，这些举措已使货币政 策处于较为合适的位置。"就我个人而言，我并不认为现在有紧迫性需要进一步采取货币政策行动，因 为我们已经进行的降息已经让政策立场非常到位，"他说。"我希望看到通胀在不对劳动力市场造成过度 伤害的情况下回落至 2% 的目标水平，这本身就是一项需要谨慎权衡的平衡。" 他的表态凸显出，在连续降息之后，美联储对是否以及何时继续降息仍面临高度不确定性。尽管官员们 在最近三次议息会议上均选择下调利率，但在通胀走势和就业前景的判断上，决策层内部仍存在分歧。 美联储上周公布的最新经济预测显示，官员们预计2026年仅会再进行一次降息。 对于本周公布的就业和通胀数据，威廉姆斯指出，其中部分表现受到了近期政府停摆带来的短期扭曲因 素影响。不过，他同时强调，从更长期的趋势来看，相关数据仍显示潜在通胀正持续向美联储2%的目 标迈进，而劳动力市场也在逐步降温，整体符合美联储对经济"有序放缓"的预期。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，目前没有迫切需要进一步调整利率 政策，近期公布的就业和通胀数据也并未实质性改变他对经济 ...

此番言论凸显出，在美联储官员连续第三次会议降息后，进一步降息的前景不确定。政策制定者对通胀 与就业前景存在分歧。上周会议公布的最新预测显示，官员们仅预期2026年将实施一次降息。 来源：环球市场播报 纽约联储银行行长威廉姆斯表示，目前没有进一步调整利率的紧迫性，近期就业和通胀数据几乎没有改 变他的预期。 "我个人并没有紧迫感，认为当前需要在货币政策方面采取进一步行动，因为我认为，我们已经实施的 降息使政策处于非常好的状态，"威廉姆斯周五在接受采访时表示，"我希望看到通胀回落至2%，同时 不对劳动力市场造成不必要的损害。这要达到一种平衡。" 威廉姆斯表示，本周公布的就业和通胀报告反映了近期政府停摆造成的数据扭曲。但他指出，这些数据 表明基本通胀继续在向美联储2%的目标迈进，同时劳动力市场也在逐步降温。 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams stated that current data is insufficient to confirm a sustained decline in inflation, and further assessment will rely on December data. The November CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.7%, below market expectations of 3.1% [1] - JPMorgan reiterated that the stablecoin market is unlikely to reach a trillion-dollar valuation by 2028, projecting a total market value of approximately $500 billion to $600 billion. The growth of stablecoins is primarily driven by crypto trading activities, and the expansion of payment scenarios may not significantly increase the required supply [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, citing an increasing likelihood of achieving its economic outlook. Following the announcement, the yen weakened against the dollar, trading around 156 yen [2] Group 3 - The liquidator managing the remaining assets of Terraform Labs has filed a lawsuit against Jump Trading, seeking $4 billion in damages. The lawsuit alleges that Jump Trading profited illegally and contributed to the collapse of the crypto empire [3] Group 4 - David Sacks, the White House's AI and crypto affairs lead, announced that the CLARITY Act is expected to enter the Senate for markup and revision in January. This bipartisan legislation aims to structure the crypto market and will proceed through the legislative process if approved by the Senate [4]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams stated that current data is insufficient to confirm a sustained decline in inflation, and further assessment will rely on December data. The November CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.7%, below market expectations of 3.1% [1] - JPMorgan reiterated its forecast that the stablecoin market will not reach a trillion-dollar valuation by 2028, estimating a total market cap of approximately $500 billion to $600 billion. The growth of stablecoins is primarily driven by crypto trading activities, and the expansion of payment scenarios may not significantly increase the required supply [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, citing an increasing likelihood of achieving its economic outlook. Following the announcement, the yen weakened against the dollar, trading around 156 yen [2] Group 3 - The liquidator managing the remaining assets of Terraform Labs has filed a lawsuit against Jump Trading, seeking $4 billion in damages. The lawsuit alleges that Jump Trading profited illegally and contributed to the collapse of the crypto empire [3] Group 4 - David Sacks, the White House's AI and crypto affairs lead, announced that the CLARITY Act is expected to enter the Senate for markup and revision in January. The bipartisan bill aims to advance the legislative process for the crypto market structure [4]

Core Insights - The November core CPI unexpectedly slowed to its lowest level since 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, compared to the Dow Jones economists' forecast of 3.1% [4][5][9] - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, indicated that "technical factors" likely distorted the November inflation data, potentially lowering the CPI reading by about 0.1 percentage points due to data collection issues in October and early November [3][7][8] - Williams noted that the data collection was primarily focused on the promotional activities in the latter half of November, which may have contributed to a downward bias in the reported figures [4][8] Data Collection Issues - The report lacked standard data indicators due to the cancellation of the October CPI report, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics used "non-survey data sources" to compile the index [5][9] - Economists may interpret the report cautiously, as the absence of October data makes it difficult to conclude that inflation is on a sustained downward trend [5][9] - The methodology used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for estimating missing data, particularly for owner’s equivalent rent, may have resulted in a lower calculation for that metric [5][9] Positive Signals - Despite the data collection issues, Williams observed encouraging signs from unaffected categories, indicating that price pressures in some areas are easing [4][8] - He expressed optimism that the observed inflation slowdown process is ongoing, as reflected in the report [4][8]

9:0全票通过！日本央行如期加息25基点：若经济和物价前景实现将继续加息。 日本央行行长植田和男强调"审慎行事"，交易员押注下次加息或需等至明年9月。 【周五美股盘前你需要了解的全球要闻】 美国纽约联储主席威廉姆斯：通胀显现放缓迹象，CPI数据存 在一定失真。 "冻结俄罗斯资产方案"流产，欧洲同意向乌克兰提供900亿欧元贷款。 沃勒在美联储主席面试中表现"出色"，特朗普或将关注重点转向就业市场。 预算案谈判破裂，法债遭遇抛售潮、30年期收益率触及十六年高位。 字节跳动正推进与多家厂商的AI手机合作。 耐克第二财季营收124亿美元同比增长1%，库存改善，北美市场回暖。 日经225收涨1.03%，沪指收涨0.36%；恒生指数收涨0.75%。 阿联酋资本托底美股？不仅注资OpenAI，更把甲骨文从债务悬崖边拉了回来。 拼多多美股盘前大涨，宣布调整公司治理结构，实行联席董事长制度，并任命赵佳臻为联席董事长。 小米汽车已获L3级道路测试牌照。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams indicates that it is necessary to wait for December data to more accurately assess inflation trends, as current data is insufficient to confirm a sustained decline in inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation Data Insights - November CPI data may be underestimated due to technical factors, with part of the reason being the failure to collect data normally in October and the first half of November, which could have distorted some components and lowered CPI by approximately 0.1 percentage points [1] - The year-on-year CPI for November stands at 2.7%, which is below market expectations of 3.1% [1]