Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is leveraging the cost overruns of the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation, which exceeded the initial budget by 30% to reach $2.5 billion, as a potential reason to dismiss Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Renovation Cost Overruns - The renovation project, initiated in 2017, had an initial budget of $1.9 billion but ballooned to $2.5 billion by 2025, marking a 30% increase in costs [3]. - Republican lawmakers criticized the project for including luxurious features, likening it to the renovation of the Palace of Versailles [4]. Political Implications - The Trump administration has called for a congressional investigation into the renovation, suggesting that if the allegations are substantiated, Powell should resign [5]. - Trump has publicly stated that the renovation costs could justify Powell's dismissal, indicating a strong discontent with Powell's performance [6][7]. Fed's Independence and Powell's Response - Legally, the President can only dismiss the Fed Chairman for "serious misconduct," and policy disagreements do not qualify as such [12]. - Powell has requested an independent review of the renovation and has denied the luxury allegations, emphasizing that the renovations were necessary for safety compliance [12]. Alternative Strategies for Trump - If dismissal is not feasible, Trump may announce a successor to influence market expectations and undermine Powell's authority [15]. - The administration could also use the congressional investigation to shape public opinion and pressure Powell to resign [16]. Market Reactions and Economic Consequences - Analysts warn that if Powell is forced out, it could lead to significant market turmoil, with potential declines in the dollar and stock market [18]. - The erosion of the Fed's independence could trigger a loss of confidence in the dollar system globally, with gold prices potentially surging [19]. - The situation could set a dangerous precedent for presidential intervention in monetary policy, increasing inflation risks and the likelihood of economic recession [20][21].

大家好，简单回顾下今天的市场动态。 A股震荡小幅下跌 7月16日，沪指震荡调整，创业板指冲高回落。截至收盘，沪指跌0.03%，深成指跌0.22%，创业板指跌0.22%。 医药股逆市走强，联环药业、力生制药等多股涨停。 两市共3278只个股上涨，67只个股涨停，1929只个股下跌。 机器人概念股反复活跃，上纬新材、浙江荣泰等多股涨停。 | 880005 涨跌家数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 其中 涨停 | | 67 | | 涨幅 > 7% | | 104 | | 涨幅 5-7% | 1 | 76 | | 涨幅 3-5% | | 256 | | 涨幅 0-3% | | 2842 | | 跌幅 0-3% | | 1784 | | 跌幅 3-5% | | 84 | | 跌幅 5-7% | | 38 | | 跌幅 > 7% | | 23 | | 其中 跌停 | | 8 | | 上涨家数 | | 3278 | | 下跌家数 | | 1929 | | 平盘停牌 | | 211 | | 总品种数 | | 5418 | | 总成交额 | | 14617.34亿 | | 总成交量 | | 109665 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, with significant attention on potential candidates amid President Trump's criticism of current Chairman Jerome Powell [3][4]. Group 1: Selection Process - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has started, emphasizing that there are many qualified candidates [4]. - Mnuchin indicated that the decision will be driven by President Trump, who is expected to move at his own pace [4]. - Speculation exists that Powell may completely exit the Federal Reserve system upon leaving his position to avoid any influence on the new Chairman [4]. Group 2: Candidates - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is emerging as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, with Trump considering candidates who align more closely with his views [8][9]. - Hassett has a close relationship with Trump and has served as an economic advisor, which may enhance his candidacy [8]. - Other candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, Treasury Secretary Scott Mnuchin, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, each with their own connections and qualifications [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Context - President Trump has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with Powell, advocating for interest rates to be below 1%, which would require a reduction of over 300 basis points from the current target range of 4.25% to 4.50% [7]. - Analysts suggest that such low interest rates could signal a response to a severely troubled economy, raising concerns about the implications for economic health [7].

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is underway, with Kevin Hassett currently leading the race, amid concerns about the independence of the Fed due to President Trump's dissatisfaction with current Chair Jerome Powell's policies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Candidates and Selection Process - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the National Economic Council, is seen as a frontrunner for the next Fed Chair, with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh also in contention [1][3]. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is involved in the selection process and may also be considered for the position if other candidates do not meet expectations [1][3]. - The selection process is expected to be swift, as President Trump is highly involved and tends to act quickly once a decision is made [3]. Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's public criticism of Powell and his call for interest rate cuts have heightened concerns about the Fed's independence, which is crucial for controlling inflation and maintaining the dollar's status [1][2]. - Hassett's alignment with Trump's views raises questions about how this "service to the president" attitude might affect the traditionally independent role of the Fed Chair [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The Fed's current stance on interest rates has been a point of contention, with Trump labeling Powell as "Too Late" for not cutting rates sooner, despite a strong economy and job market [5][8]. - There are indications that businesses are beginning to pass on trade-related costs to consumers, which could influence the Fed's decisions in upcoming meetings [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, issued a rare warning to the U.S. government regarding the interference in the Federal Reserve's independence, highlighting concerns over the politicization of monetary policy and its impact on market confidence [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Maintaining the independence of the central bank is crucial for the stability of the financial system, as any interference could lead to unforeseen consequences [1]. - The ongoing verbal pressure from the White House and rumors of leadership changes have already impacted market confidence, emphasizing that the independence of the Fed is vital for its credibility [1][5]. - The independence of the Fed is a key indicator for global investors assessing the credibility of a country's financial system, and any perception of the Fed being influenced by the executive branch could undermine the safe-haven status of U.S. assets [7]. Group 2: Current Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is at a critical juncture in policy-making, facing high inflation and economic growth pressures, leading to significant divergence in expectations regarding interest rate hikes or cuts [3]. - The current interest rate path is no longer solely determined by economic variables, as public criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and discussions of a "shadow chair" could signal political interference in policy decisions [5]. - The need for a clear, transparent, and data-driven interest rate path is emphasized, as political maneuvering could exacerbate market volatility [7]. Group 3: Implications for Investors - Investors should closely monitor changes in the Fed's communication and the evolving market expectations, as these will be critical for future trading decisions [7]. - The potential for political interference in monetary policy could directly affect the U.S. dollar's performance, bond pricing, and the allocation of global liquidity [7].

一场关乎美元霸权、全球金融稳定的权力博弈，正酣。其核心并非美联储大楼那25亿美元的"天价装修"，而是美国总统特朗普为实现其"全球最低利率"的野 心，对美联储主席鲍威尔发动的连续"解雇战"。这场斗争的背后，是36万亿美元国债沉重的利息压力，以及对美联储百年独立性的严峻挑战。 市场对这场权力斗争高度敏感。德意志银行模拟了鲍威尔被解雇的最坏情况：美元可能在24小时内暴跌3%以上，美债收益率狂飙40个基点，其冲击力堪比 1987年股灾。高盛警告，美联储一旦沦为"政治工具"，美元霸权将加速崩塌。目前，全球外储中美元占比已跌至59%，创十年新低。欧洲央行也密切关注事 态发展，分析师预测美元若出现危机，欧元可能暴涨至1.25，日元、瑞郎和黄金将成为最大受益者。 荷兰国际集团（ING）甚至创造了"美元有毒组合"（政 治干预 通胀失控）这一新词来形容当前局势。 7月13日，特朗普在马里兰州军事基地的停机坪上再次公开喊话要求鲍威尔辞职。然而，鲍威尔对此置若罔闻，第二天便飞往葡萄牙参加欧洲央行论坛，并 隔空回应："降息不能看政治脸色，得看经济数据！" 鲍威尔在6月25日的国会山听证会上也强硬表态："美联储不是选举工具！政治干预的代 ...

"我觉得他很糟糕……但我从没想过他会花25亿美元给美联储扩建，"特朗普告诉记者。他还说，和鲍威 尔谈话就像"对着椅子说话"，因为对方毫无个性。 当被问及这是否构成可解雇的过错时，特朗普称："我觉得算是。" 数月来，特朗普一直抨击鲍威尔，要求降息。但美联储官员今年始终维持利率不变，这让特朗普极为不 满。然而，这些攻击引发了担忧：以数据为导向的美联储，其独立性可能被削弱。 美国总统特朗普称，美联储25亿美元的翻新计划或许足以成为解雇鲍威尔的理由，这是他对这位美联储 主席攻击的最新升级。 特朗普承认，他对鲍威尔更具人身攻击意味的施压，并未换来他想要的降息。而美联储的翻新计划，成 了他近期攻击鲍威尔的新靶点。 鲍威尔此前已要求美联储监察长对正在进行的翻新工程展开额外审查。上月，在鲍威尔半年度货币政策 听证会上，部分参议员已就美联储华盛顿总部"奢华翻新"对其提出质询。 根据美联储官网信息，该翻新项目于2017年获美联储理事会批准，2019年最初预算为19亿美元，2021年 开工。但因"未预见状况"（如"石棉含量超预期、土壤有毒污染、地下水位高于预期"），成本攀升至25 亿美元。 长期以来，特朗普对鲍威尔的不满毫不掩饰， ...

Core Viewpoint - The White House has initiated an investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell due to alleged excessive spending on renovations, which reportedly cost over $2.5 billion, raising concerns about mismanagement [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Spending - The White House budget office has criticized Powell's renovation project, comparing its extravagance to the Palace of Versailles, indicating a significant mismanagement of funds [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve has defended the spending, claiming that the $2.5 billion includes various "invisible factors," but skepticism remains among the public and media regarding the justification of such a large expenditure [1][4]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Independence - President Trump has been vocal about his desire for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, threatening Powell with potential dismissal if he does not comply, despite the challenges of removing a Federal Reserve chairman due to its independent status [3][4]. - The ongoing conflict between Trump and Powell highlights the tension between political influence and the Federal Reserve's independence, which is legally protected to ensure unbiased monetary policy decisions [4][5]. Group 3: Implications for Economic Policy - The investigation into the renovation spending is seen as a strategic move by Trump to exert pressure on Powell to lower interest rates, which would help alleviate the government's debt burden and stimulate the economy [3][5]. - The outcome of this confrontation could have significant implications for U.S. economic policy and potentially affect the global economy, depending on whether Powell can withstand the pressure or if he is forced to resign [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of President Trump's calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign, highlighting concerns over inflation risks and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Investors are adjusting their portfolios in response to rising inflation risks, as a more dovish Federal Reserve could lead to higher prices and increased borrowing costs for mortgages and corporate bonds [1][2]. - Trump's repeated criticism of Powell and calls for his resignation raise concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with analysts warning that perceived political manipulation could increase market volatility [1][4][6]. - The recent FOMC minutes indicate that most policymakers remain cautious about supporting rate cuts due to potential inflation risks from tariffs [2][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond recently surpassed 5% for the first time since May, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and the risk of Powell's departure [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term bond yields may decline due to anticipated rate cuts, long-term yields could rise due to persistent inflation and diminished institutional trust [2][6]. - Investment strategies are shifting, with some analysts recommending a move from U.S. Treasuries to gold and high-quality stocks, as the risk-reward profile for government bonds appears unfavorable [3][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential for a "shadow" chairman to influence monetary policy is considered low, but the risk of economic predictions being affected remains a concern [4][6]. - Investors are increasingly factoring in the possibility of weakened Federal Reserve independence into their investment strategies, with some suggesting that this could lead to a global withdrawal from U.S. markets [6][7].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant movements, with the ChiNext index reaching a peak due to stocks like New Yi Sheng and Zhong Ji rising sharply [2] - A total of 1,450 companies have disclosed their mid-year earnings forecasts, with 43% expecting positive results, indicating a mixed performance among companies [3] - Notable companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Chifeng Jilong Gold reported substantial profits, while others like Dazhihui and Vanke faced significant losses [3] Group 2 - The second quarter GDP growth was recorded at 5.2%, surpassing market expectations, which may reduce the need for large-scale fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year [4] - Economic data released showed a year-on-year increase in retail sales and industrial output, suggesting a positive trend in the economy [5] - The market is experiencing a divergence in investor sentiment, with some taking profits while others remain bullish despite potential risks from upcoming IPOs and tariff impacts [6]