Group 1: Trade Tariffs - President Trump announced a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU starting August [2] - Over 20 countries received new tariff notices from Trump, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, threatening Brazil with a 50% tariff [2] - Mexico's government views the new tariffs as "unfair treatment" and has initiated negotiations with the U.S. to protect border businesses and jobs [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Risks - Deutsche Bank warned that Trump's potential forcing of Fed Chair Powell to resign is a significant and underestimated risk, which could lead to a sharp sell-off in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries [4] - ING strategists noted that while Powell's early departure is unlikely, it would steepen the U.S. Treasury yield curve as investors price in lower rates and faster inflation [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $119,000, driven by optimism in the cryptocurrency market [6] - Upcoming congressional reviews of cryptocurrency-related laws are expected to enhance regulatory transparency for the industry [6] - Market sentiment is bullish, with a significant volume of call options indicating traders expect continued price increases [6] Group 4: Investment in AI - SpaceX plans to invest $2 billion in Elon Musk's AI company xAI as part of a $5 billion equity financing round [7] - This investment marks SpaceX's first foray into funding xAI, which has a combined market value of $113 billion after merging with Musk's social media platform [7] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. is set to release the June CPI report, with expectations of an increase in the annual rate from 2.4% to 2.7% [9] - Key financial reports, including PPI and the Fed's Beige Book, will also be published this week [9] - Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, will kick off Q2 earnings reports [10]

特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔的施压升级到新阶段？ 7月14日，据媒体报道，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）上周日（7月13日）表示，特 朗普政府正在研判是否有权解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，并称"如有正当理由，特朗普当然可以这么做"。 报道指出，特朗普政府给出的7个工作日回复期限意味着，美联储需在本周结束前作出回应，这可能让 特朗普有时间在7月29日美联储会议前采取行动。 美联储上周五悄然在官网发布FAQ页面回应部分质疑，明确澄清"该项目未建设新的VIP餐厅"，直接回 应了沃特提出的问题之一。 报道称，尽管特朗普上周五仍表示不想解雇鲍威尔，但哈塞特的言论表明白宫高层仍在考虑这种可能 性。特朗普政府官员近日将矛头对准美联储总部25亿美元的装修项目，称其超支7亿美元，并将此作为 解雇鲍威尔的潜在"正当理由"。 与此同时，下一任美联储主席的角逐同时升温。据华尔街见闻此前文章提及，哈塞特被广泛视为接替鲍 威尔的热门人选，而前美联储理事沃尔什（Kevin Warsh）也在积极争取这一职位。鲍威尔的主席任期 将于明年5月到期。 解雇权限成争议焦点 分析指出，哈塞特的立场转变反映了特朗普团队内部的政治考量 ...

据美国广播公司（ABC）和路透社报道，当地时间7月13日，美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特在接受ABC《本周》节目采访时表示，如果有理 由，美国总统特朗普有权解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，美联储对其华盛顿总部翻修工程超支"负有重大责任"。 哈塞特资料图哥伦比亚广播公司视频截图 哈塞特指出，特朗普是否会因"超支7亿美元"解雇鲍威尔，将很大程度上取决于美联储对白宫管理和预算办公室主任拉塞尔·沃特质询的回 应。 当被问到总统是否有权解雇美联储主席时，哈塞特说："如果有理由，他有这个权力。" 今年5月，美国最高法作出一项裁决，允许特朗普罢免其他两个独立联邦机构高官，但暗示，美联储成员将受到特别保护。 上述裁决暂时缓解了人们对特朗普解雇鲍威尔的担忧。而近日美联储总部大楼昂贵的翻新工程被认为为特朗普提供了机会，使其能够达到 解除鲍威尔美联储主席职务所需的高法律门槛。 值得注意的是，哈塞特被视为美联储下任主席的有力竞争者。《华尔街日报》援引知情人士的话报道称，哈塞特6月至少两次就美联储职 位与特朗普会面。 报道显示，63岁的哈塞特于20世纪90年代在美联储工作。过去8年，他一直站在特朗普一边。在哈塞特成为美联储下任主席潜在人选之 际，他对美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between the Federal Reserve and President Trump over interest rates is creating significant instability in the global economy, with no clear winners in sight [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Dynamics - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September stands at 75%, reflecting intense political pressure from Trump, who has publicly criticized Fed Chair Powell and demanded a reduction of 2 to 3 percentage points [1][3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are at a ten-year high, with 7 out of 19 decision-makers opposing any rate cuts this year, while 8 support two cuts [3]. - Key economic indicators show a mixed picture: the core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and income dropped by 0.4%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [3]. Group 2: Trade Wars and Market Reactions - Trump's trade policies have escalated tensions, with threats of new tariffs on Canada and other countries, leading to significant market volatility [4]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline, while tech stocks like Nvidia reached new highs, indicating a narrowing market breadth with only a few stocks driving gains [4]. - The market's reaction to trade negotiations breaking down has been complex, with the Dow Jones falling by 249 points on July 11, while the S&P 500 dropped by 0.19% [4]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Economic Implications - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is mounting, with Trump's trade advisor publicly calling for intervention in Fed policy, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicating alignment with Trump's wishes [5]. - The new tax legislation is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade, which could lead to a dangerous combination of inflation, crisis, and economic stagnation [5]. - Powell has asserted the independence of the Federal Reserve in the face of political pressure, but potential candidates for the next Fed chair show signs of political influence [7]. Group 4: Global Market Impact - The U.S. dollar index has fallen to 97.18, marking the largest half-year decline since the early 1970s, while gold prices have risen to $3,337 per ounce [9]. - China's capital markets are seeing positive inflows, with the first batch of floating rate funds raising 21.8 billion yuan to invest in A-share core assets [9]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for Fed rate cuts, now expecting three cuts within the year, citing weaker-than-expected impacts from tariffs and signs of a softening job market [9].

白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特上周日表示，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的职位可能面临风险，具体取决于其 对美联储总部25亿美元翻新项目相关问题的回应。 "这是华盛顿历史上最昂贵的工程项目，"哈塞特在接受电视采访时称，"25亿美元的总预算中，超支部 分就达7亿美元。举个例子，美联储这个项目的超支金额，几乎相当于美国历史上第二大建筑翻新工程 ——联邦调查局(FBI)总部改造的规模。" 他补充道："美联储有很多问题需要解释。"当被问及这是否可能成为罢免鲍威尔的理由时，哈塞特回 应："此事正在调查中，但显然，如果存在合理依据，他确实可能被罢免。" 这些言论发表之际，特朗普政府对鲍威尔的施压正不断升级。鲍威尔最初是在特朗普第一任期内被任命 为美联储主席。近日，白宫预算办公室主任拉塞尔·沃特在一封信中指控鲍威尔，称其要么误导了国 会，要么违反了与美联储位于宪法大道的历史建筑高额翻新项目相关的联邦许可规定。 据媒体报道，包括白宫副幕僚长詹姆斯·布莱尔在内的多名白宫顾问已进入美国国家首都规划委员会(该 机构负责审批华盛顿特区的重大联邦项目)。布莱尔和沃特均表示，正在调查鲍威尔在国会的证词是否 存在不实或疏漏。 围绕利率的争议 在此之前 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance of the gold ETF fund (159937), which has seen a 0.56% increase in early trading on July 14, with a trading volume of 1.77 billion yuan and a net inflow of 143 million yuan over the past five days [1] - The international spot gold price is trading at approximately $3361.24 per ounce, reflecting a 0.19% increase, influenced by market risk aversion due to Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico [2][3] - Gold mining stocks have experienced significant gains, with notable increases in companies such as WanGuo Gold Group (up 4.5%) and Zijin Mining (up 3.25%) [2] Group 2 - There is a divergence in market opinions regarding the future trajectory of gold prices, with some institutions remaining bullish while others suggest a lack of upward momentum, indicating potential price fluctuations [4][7] - Geopolitical factors and recent U.S. economic data have contributed to a mixed outlook for gold, with a rebound in the U.S. dollar index potentially suppressing short-term gold price increases [7] - Central bank gold purchases and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices, with gold ETFs providing a low-cost investment option for investors [8]

美联储独立性面临的制度性挑战不容忽视。1977年《联邦储备改革法案》虽限制总统因政策分歧解雇联储官员，但近期政治势力正通过国会监督程序寻找施 压路径。参议院银行委员会已启动对总部改造项目的专项调查，传唤美联储基建负责人提供工程审计文件。法律专家指出，若国会认定鲍威尔存在"重大失 职"，可能启动特别听证程序，这将创造前所未有的制度危机。 此次风波为全球央行治理敲响警钟。国际清算银行（BIS）最新报告强调，主要经济体中央银行的决策独立性指数已降至2008年以来最低水平。欧洲央行行 长拉加德在巴黎金融论坛发表演讲时重申，货币政策决策必须隔绝短期政治压力，否则将损害物价稳定目标的实现。历史经验表明，1970年代美联储丧失独 立性的教训，直接导致美国经历长达十年的滞胀危机。 面对政治压力和市场动荡的双重考验，鲍威尔及其团队展现出专业定力。美联储7月12日发布声明，强调总部改造项目完全符合《政府资产管理条例》要 求，所有工程变更均报备监管部门。市场分析机构测算显示，尽管传闻引发短期波动，但联邦基金利率期货定价仍保持稳定，表明多数投资者认为鲍威尔完 成任期的概率超过75%。 在货币政策正常化进程遭遇逆风的背景下，美联储领导 ...

政治博弈下的美联储：独立性危机与全球市场的连锁反应 华盛顿特区，盛夏的黏腻热浪笼罩着权力中心。美联储主席鲍威尔正站在国会山的听证席上，面对着议员们犀利的目光，他不得不频频拭去 额头渗出的汗珠。就在这令人窒息的听证会前一天，鲍威尔还在谨慎地向议员们强调，利率调整需要保持"观望"态度。然而，他的话音未落， 特朗普总统便在社交媒体上掀起了一场风暴，怒斥鲍威尔是"最差的主席"，并要求他"立刻降息2到3个百分点！" 与此同时，在芝加哥商品交易所的交易大厅里，电子屏幕闪烁着冰冷的光芒。凌晨时分的数据显示，市场对美联储7月降息的预期概率仅为 21%，但对9月启动降息的可能性却飙升至惊人的90%以上。此前，市场刚刚消化了美联储内部出现明显分裂的信号：两位由特朗普任命的官 员，沃勒和鲍曼，出人意料地转向鸽派立场，暗示可能在7月采取降息行动。然而，仅仅转眼之间，十几位美联储官员便集体出面"泼冷水"， 强调"需要更多数据！"才能做出决定。 白宫的"影子主席"计划与美联储内部的裂痕 在白宫内部，特朗普总统正在酝酿一项打破常规的计划。《华尔街日报》披露，他正在考虑最早在9月就宣布下任美联储主席的提名人选，这 比鲍威尔2026年5月任期 ...

Group 1: Core Issues - The controversy surrounding the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation has escalated, with costs rising from an initial budget of $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, a 30% increase, drawing significant political scrutiny [2] - Bill Pulte, a close ally of former President Trump, publicly expressed encouragement over reports that Jerome Powell might resign, causing market volatility with the S&P 500 dropping 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.63% [1][2] Group 2: Political Dynamics - The renovation project has become a focal point for political attacks, with Senator Tim Scott comparing the Federal Reserve headquarters to the "Palace of Versailles" [4] - Powell defended the project during a Senate hearing, denying the presence of luxury features, while the White House's Office of Management and Budget criticized him for not addressing the Fed's financial situation [4] Group 3: Monetary Policy Tensions - The ongoing conflict between Trump and Powell centers on interest rate policies, with Trump claiming that current rates are too high and advocating for immediate rate cuts [4][6] - Trump's team has considered appointing a "shadow chairman" to influence monetary policy before Powell's term ends in May 2026, indicating a desire for more control over the Fed [6][7] Group 4: Institutional Challenges - Even if Powell were to resign, institutional barriers remain that would complicate achieving Trump's interest rate reduction goals, as the Fed Chair only holds one vote among twelve in the Federal Open Market Committee [7] - The Fed's structure, with staggered terms for board members, creates a natural firewall against rapid policy changes, limiting Trump's influence [7] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Independence - The crisis has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, with analysts noting that discussions about losing this independence could undermine market confidence [9][11] - The importance of maintaining a non-political approach to monetary policy has been emphasized by Powell, who stated that achieving macroeconomic stability requires a commitment to independence [9][11]

德银策略师警告， "美国总统特朗普迫使美联储主席鲍威尔离职"是一个重大且被市场低估的风险，可能引发美元和美国国债的大幅抛售。 本周，特朗普表示，如果美国政府官员指控鲍威尔在美联储总部装修问题上误导国会议员的说法属实，鲍威尔应该"立即辞职"。 然而，鲍威尔被迫离职的风险被市场严重低估。德银全球外汇策略主管George Saravelos在报告中指出， 市场对鲍威尔被免职的概率定价"非常低" ，博彩平 台Polymarket给出的概率不到20%，美元近期也保持相对稳定。 Saravelos预测， 若特朗普迫使鲍威尔离职，随后24小时内美元贸易加权指数可能下跌至少3%-4%，固定收益市场将面临30-40个基点的抛售。 美元和债券将 承担持续性风险溢价。 这类事件或将构成对美联储独立性的一大冲击。Saravelos表示： "偷师"尼克松 特朗普指责鲍威尔"过度装修" 投资者可能将此类事件 解读为对美联储独立性的直接冲击，使美联储面临极端的制度性压力。 鲍威尔（美联储）坐镇全球美元货币体系的顶峰，显而易见的是，后果将波及美国境外。 其他机构观点也趋于一致。荷兰国际集团策略师在另一份报告中表示，尽管鲍威尔提前离职"不太可 ...