Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding interest rate policies, highlighting the political implications of monetary policy decisions as the election approaches [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive refusal to lower rates, which Trump perceives as detrimental to his re-election campaign [1][3]. - High interest rates are constraining consumer spending, credit availability, and overall economic liquidity, which are critical for Trump's economic narrative [3][4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Trump's public criticism of Powell reflects a broader struggle for control over monetary policy, as he seeks immediate economic stimulus to bolster his electoral prospects [4][6]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized as a crucial element for maintaining market stability, with Powell's resistance to political pressure seen as vital for the integrity of the U.S. dollar [3][6][10]. Group 3: Implications for Trust in Monetary Policy - The article warns that if Trump continues to exert pressure on the Fed, it could undermine global confidence in the U.S. monetary system, leading to potential economic instability [9][10]. - Powell's role is characterized as that of a guardian of monetary policy integrity, while Trump's approach is likened to that of a desperate gambler threatening the system [10].

Group 1 - The article highlights the intense political atmosphere in Washington, with President Trump urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates significantly to alleviate the federal government's financial burden [1] - The ongoing conflict between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell raises concerns about the Fed's independence, with investors anxious about potential impacts on monetary policy and market stability [1][9] - The sudden drop in gold prices, reaching a low of $3310 per ounce, reflects the volatility in the market and the unexpected shift in investor sentiment [3] Group 2 - Short-term investors are increasingly anxious due to market fluctuations, with experts warning about risks related to Federal Reserve policies, global trade tensions, and capital arbitrage activities [5] - The interplay of technical trading and market sentiment is causing heightened volatility, making it difficult for ordinary investors to navigate the market [9] - The article suggests that the ongoing standoff between the Federal Reserve and Trump will continue to create uncertainty in the gold market, with potential for price reversals [9]

在看似平静的水面之下，美联储内部"暗流涌动"。本次会议投票结果为9票赞成、2票反对，1位理事缺 席未投票，其中由美国总统特朗普任命的两位理事公开"唱反调"，支持降息25个基点。这也是自1993年 以来，美联储理事首次有两名成员投反对票。深入分析可知，美联储内部已明显分化为激进派、中间派 和观望派三大阵营。面对内部愈演愈烈的分歧，以及外部政治与经济数据的加压，美联储主席鲍威尔乃 至美联储如何施展"平衡术"？降息时点何时到来？重重问题待解。 美联储连续五次维持利率不变 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变。 相较于6月议息会议会后声明，本次声明将经济活动"继续稳步扩张"修改为"上半年经济活动增长有所放 缓"，若后续数据延续这一趋势，将为未来降息提供依据。此外，将经济前景的不确定性"有所下降"的 判断删除，保留"仍处于较高水平"的表述，美联储通胀和就业的双重目标仍然面临风险。 与声明相比，本次会议的投票结果或许更有看点：9票赞成、2票反对，1位理事缺席未投票。其中，反 对票来自由美国总统特朗普任命的两位理事——克里斯托弗·沃勒和米 ...

◎记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡 一场会议、两张反对票、三大阵营，美联储内部分歧加剧。 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储公布最新利率决议，如期将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50% 之间不变。至此，美联储已连续五次货币政策会议决定"按兵不动"。 在看似平静的水面之下，美联储内部"暗流涌动"。本次会议投票结果为9票赞成、2票反对，1位理事缺 席未投票，其中由美国总统特朗普任命的两位理事公开"唱反调"，支持降息25个基点。这也是自1993年 以来，美联储理事首次有两名成员投反对票。深入分析可知，美联储内部已明显分化为激进派、中间派 和观望派三大阵营。面对内部愈演愈烈的分歧，以及外部政治与经济数据的加压，美联储主席鲍威尔乃 至美联储如何施展"平衡术"？降息时点何时到来？重重问题待解。 美联储连续五次维持利率不变 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变。 相较于6月议息会议会后声明，本次声明将经济活动"继续稳步扩张"修改为"上半年经济活动增长有所放 缓"，若后续数据延续这一趋势，将为未来降息提供依据。此外，将经济前景的不确定性"有所下 ...

据新华社，北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储议息会议宣布保持基准利率不变在4.25%-4.50%，符合市场预 期。今年以来美联储始终保持基准利率不变，主要出于关税政策反复、通胀压力和经济不确定性多重因 素的考量。 财政施压下坚持通胀目标的代价更为高昂 近期，特朗普政府对货币政策立场持续的言论干涉，也进一步引发了市场对于美联储独立性的关注。政 府层面对于货币政策立场的干预反映出美国财政和经济层面正面临多重压力。 新华社报道称，7月4日，特朗普总统正式签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，高债务背景下的财政扩张对经 济刺激的有效性依赖货币政策的配合。若美联储坚持通胀目标，财政扩张在高利率环境下或反而加重经 济与债务负担，而货币政策的妥协则可能推升新一轮通胀。考虑到鲍威尔任期即将结束，未来市场对美 联储政策独立性的担忧可能进一步发酵，金融市场不确定性随之上升。 参考历史经验和相关学术研究，美联储独立性被认为是稳定通胀预期与维护市场信任的关键因素。在当 前多重压力下，美联储仍按兵不动以维护其政策独立性，稳定市场预期与制度信任。 值得注意的是，近期美国关税政策在与日本、欧洲的磋商中显露出一定缓和迹象。若后续关税幅度有所 下调，对物 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time it has held rates steady [1] - The Fed's statement shifted from indicating steady economic expansion to acknowledging a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [1] - There was a notable dissent in the Federal Open Market Committee, with two members voting against the decision to keep rates unchanged, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - The implementation of the "Build Back Better" tax and spending plan may increase the economic and debt costs of maintaining inflation targets, putting more pressure on the Fed's policy stance [2] - Fed Chair Powell tempered expectations for a rate cut in September, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and inflation, and stating that current rates are appropriate [3] - Concerns about the Fed's independence have arisen due to ongoing pressure from the White House, which could impact investor confidence in the U.S. economy and assets [3]

市场反应非常敏感。这些年，鲍威尔的每一个决策都和全球金融市场紧密相连，而当前的经济环境也正处于美联储关键的政策时刻——通胀和 经济增长之间的微妙平衡，决定了美联储未来一段时间的走向。尤其是在2024年大选即将到来之际，鲍威尔的话语不禁让人怀疑：是否白宫和 政客们在背后对美联储施加了某种压力？ 7月31日，鲍威尔在一场讲话中冒出一句：关于我卸任后是否留任理事，还没定数。从字面上看，这不过是他对未来未决事项的简短回应，但 对市场而言，这种措辞极为耐人寻味。毕竟，鲍威尔的主席任期还有半年才会结束，正常情况下，他不该在这个时候讨论卸任后事宜。为什么 突然提到这一点？ 你有没有想过，美联储主席鲍威尔突然提到卸任后是否继续担任理事的问题，究竟意味着什么？这话说得轻描淡写，但对市场来说，简直是晴 天霹雳。 美联储的独立性，从来都不是一纸空文。它需要通过不断的实践和外部环境的检验来维持。而鲍威尔的言辞，恰恰将这一敏感话题摆在了台面 上。如果美联储无法在未来几年内继续保持独立，是否意味着其政策会开始受到越来越多的政治化干预？美国大选在即，政客们的手能忍得住 不伸进美联储吗？ 无论未来鲍威尔最终选择如何，他的话语都为市场投下了不 ...

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, aligning with market expectations [2] - The meeting saw two dissenting votes from Board members Bowman and Waller, who favored an immediate 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the consensus [2] - The Fed's statement removed previous language indicating reduced uncertainty, emphasizing that economic uncertainty remains high, reflecting a more hawkish stance [2] - Powell's comments indicated that the Fed is committed to its independence despite external pressures, particularly from former President Trump, and that the impact of tariffs on the economy is still uncertain [2][4] Labor Market and Rate Cut Expectations - Powell dismissed the need for preemptive rate cuts to counter potential labor market downturns, asserting that the labor market remains robust [3] - The dissenting members expressed concerns about labor market vulnerabilities, but Powell maintained that current economic performance does not warrant a premature rate cut [3] - Following the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from approximately 65% to around 45%, with expectations for one to two cuts by the end of 2025 [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP showed a significant rebound in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in economic activity [9] - The labor market remains strong, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1% [11] - Inflation indicators suggest a rising trend in commodity prices, with core PPI and CPI showing upward movements [15][16]

今年以来，美联储连续五次议息会议保持基准利率不变。 从判断9月降息，到预计12月可能降息……国际市场上对于美联储的降息预期不断推迟。 野村全 球宏观研究主管苏博文对经济观察报记者表示："由于通胀上升，我们认为美联储将非常谨慎，直 到12月才会降息，降息幅度将低于市场预期。" 威灵顿投资管理固定收益投资组合经理Brij Khurana表示，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上释放 的鹰派立场令市场意外，直接的体现就是短期政府债券遭到抛售。鉴于美国总统特朗普已向美联储 施压要求降息，许多人预期鲍威尔会借此次会议为9月降息做铺垫，但显然这一期望落空了。 从判断9月降息，到预计12月可能降息……国际市场上对于美 联储的降息预期不断推迟。野村全球宏观研究主管苏博文对经 济观察报记者表示："由于通胀上升，我们认为美联储将非常 谨慎，直到12月才会降息，降息幅度将低于市场预期。" 作者： 胡艳明 封图：图虫创意 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（The Federal Open Market Committee，下 称"FOMC"）宣布，将基准利率维持在4.25%—4.50%区间不变。 降息预期推迟 早在本次议息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The debate regarding whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September is intensifying, with differing perspectives on the conditions for such a decision [1] Group 1: Conditions for Rate Cuts - The conditions for the Federal Reserve to take action are maturing, as the market misunderstands that the Fed must wait for clear inflation data before cutting rates. Instead, as long as the impact of tariffs on inflation is predictable, the Fed can act sooner [2][4] - Current U.S. real interest rates at 1.63% are significantly above the natural rate of about 1%, indicating a restrictive monetary policy. Economic growth and the job market are showing signs of moderate weakening, with average GDP growth over the past two quarters at approximately 1.5% when excluding tariff-related fluctuations [2][4] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming clearer, with recent agreements with multiple trade partners leading to a likely effective tax rate of 15%-16% post-August 1. This suggests a predictable transmission path for tariffs to inflation [4] - The anticipated one-time impact of tariffs is expected to manifest primarily in Q3 and Q4, with year-end CPI projected at 3.3% and core CPI at 3.4% [4] Group 3: Fed's Independence and Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates due to political pressure from President Trump, as it maintains a commitment to its independence and policy objectives of full employment and stable inflation [7][8] - Recent statements from Fed Chair Powell and other officials indicate a preference for a tightening stance, citing unresolved inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market as reasons not to lower rates [7][8]