华盛顿的夏夜闷热粘稠，美联储主席鲍威尔在国会山听证席上擦去额角的汗珠。仅仅24小时前，他刚向议员们强调利率调整还需"观望"，话音未落，特朗普 的咆哮已席卷社交媒体："鲍威尔是最差的主席！立刻给我降息2到3个百分点！" 芝加哥商品交易所的交易屏幕在凌晨1点闪烁着冷光：美联储7月降息概率仅21%，而9月启动降息的可能性已飙升至90%以上。 市场刚消化完美联储内部分 裂的信号——两位特朗普任命的官员沃勒与鲍曼意外转向鸽派，暗示7月可能降息；但转眼间十多位官员集体泼下冷水："需要更多数据！" 01 美联储降息博弈，政治阴影下的独立危机 鲍威尔在国会听证会上的表态成为这场风暴的导火索。面对议员质询，他反复强调关税政策使美联储难以预测通胀前景："自二战以来各国都在减少关税， 但如今加征关税规模是特朗普第一任期的六倍，我们必须审慎分析。" 当被问及7月降息可能性时，他罕见松口："降息宜早不宜迟"，却拒绝承诺具体时间 点。 美联储内部裂痕在点阵图上暴露无遗：19位决策者中，7人坚持今年不降息，8人支持降息两次。 分裂程度创十年新高，最常见与次常见预测差距达50基 点。 德意志银行报告指出："这不是历史性不确定性，而是历史性分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's shift towards increasing financing through short-term debt will undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, effectively placing monetary policy under fiscal control, leading to a steeper yield curve and a weakened dollar [1][6][9]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - The Treasury's strategy to issue more short-term debt will severely limit the Federal Reserve's ability to independently formulate monetary policy, marking a potential crisis in its autonomy [1][4][8]. - The increase in short-term debt issuance is expected to further erode the Fed's independence, which has been compromised over the years [1][4][6]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Implications - The issuance of more short-term Treasury bills may lead to structural increases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as these instruments possess a stronger "monetary attribute" compared to long-term bonds [1][4][6]. - Historical data indicates that changes in the proportion of short-term bills in outstanding debt often precede long-term inflation trends, suggesting a causal relationship [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Asset Prices - The explosion of short-term debt issuance is likely to push risk assets to higher levels, driven by more efficient clearing and deeper liquidity in repurchase agreements [6][8]. - The current stock market is at historical highs, and the effectiveness of short-term debt issuance as a stimulus may be diminishing due to extreme market saturation and high valuations [6][8]. Group 4: Long-term Debt and Liquidity - Increased issuance of short-term debt correlates positively with the growth of Federal Reserve reserves, while long-term debt issuance tends to tighten liquidity [8]. - The combination of rising asset prices and short-term debt accumulation poses a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, potentially forcing a reversal of monetary easing policies [8][9].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing pressure from multiple fronts, including public criticism from President Trump and unusual signals from Fed officials suggesting potential interest rate cuts [3][6] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being undermined by political influences, particularly through the weakening of the Labor Statistics Bureau, which affects the reliability of inflation data [3][4] - The current political environment is shifting the focus of monetary policy from economic indicators to trade policies, as indicated by the Treasury Secretary's comments [6][8] Group 2 - The credibility of U.S. inflation data is in question, with nearly one-third of CPI data derived from estimates, leading to potential misguidance in monetary policy [4][6] - The Federal Reserve's role in stabilizing the dollar and the global financial order is at risk due to the U.S. government's fiscal tightening and its impact on statistical capabilities [4] - The ongoing political battle is reshaping the Federal Reserve's identity and operational independence, with implications for its future role in economic management [8]

为什么会这样？因为美联储现在的关注点发生了一些微妙的变化。他们不再仅仅盯着传统的就业和通胀 数字，而是开始花更多心思去琢磨一些"政策实验"带来的影响，特别是贸易和移民政策是如何改变美国 企业的经营和用人决策的。 Timiraos的核心看法是，6月就业报告不太可能动摇美联储今年夏季在利率问题上观望的模式。换句话 说，别太指望7月底的下次会议马上就会降息。 华尔街见闻此前提到，美联储"当红理事"沃勒和"特朗普提名"的美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼最近都表 示，支持最早7月降息。Timiraos指出，大多数美联储官员并未对7月降息的可能性做太多努力。 同时，美联储还面临着巨大的外部压力。美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔及其联储同事的施压可以 说已经到了白热化的地步，他甚至公开呼吁鲍威尔辞职。在这样的背景下，美联储的每一步棋都显得格 外谨慎，也格外引人注目。 一份不足以改变观望局面的就业报告 本周四公布的报告显示，美国6月新增非农就业人口14.7万，较华尔街预期多增4.1万，前两个月就业人 口合计上修1.6万；6月私人部门就业人口仅增加7.4万，创去年10月以来最低增幅；6月失业率未如预期 从5月的4.2%升至4.3%，反 ...

Group 1 - COMEX silver prices have increased significantly, currently trading at $37.20 per ounce, with a rise of 1.10% from the opening price of $36.79 per ounce [1][5] - The highest price reached today was $37.24 per ounce, while the lowest was $36.57 per ounce [1][5] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, with two-thirds of reserve managers expressing worries about political interference affecting monetary policy [3] - Since President Trump took office, his public criticism and pressure on the Federal Reserve have led to a reassessment of the dollar's reliability as a safe-haven asset [3] - Approximately 35% of central banks surveyed believe the U.S. may require allies to convert medium- to long-term debt into ultra-long-term zero-coupon bonds, reflecting concerns over U.S. debt management strategies [4] - Despite these concerns, nearly 80% of respondents expect the dollar to maintain its status as the global reserve currency, with the dollar currently accounting for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves [4] - However, 29% of central banks plan to reduce investments in U.S. assets in the future, indicating a gradual decline in the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [4]

Group 1 - President Trump has intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, demanding his resignation and calling for a congressional investigation into Powell's actions [2][4][5] - The Trump administration accuses Powell of political bias and making false statements to Congress, particularly regarding a $2.5 billion renovation project at the Federal Reserve headquarters, which allegedly exceeded the budget by 32% [5] - Trump has previously pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, claiming that Powell's inaction has cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions of dollars [5][9] Group 2 - Despite Trump's repeated calls for interest rate cuts, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged for the fourth consecutive time since January [7][9] - Powell has stated that the Federal Reserve will remain patient regarding future interest rate cuts, emphasizing that decisions will depend on upcoming economic data [9] - Experts warn that continued pressure from Trump on Powell could lead to market instability and weaken the dollar, potentially increasing long-term interest rates [12][14]

金十数据7月3日讯，德意志银行研究部在一项全球金融市场调查中说，只有16%的市场参与者认为美联 储是完全独立的。四分之一的受访者认为政治压力将导致利率下调，指特朗普多次插手美联储政策。与 此同时，58%的人认为它对政策的影响微乎其微。 调查显示，市场认为美联储的独立性面临风险 ...

瑞银资产管理公司全球主权市场策略与咨询主管马克斯•卡斯泰利表示，这些担忧表明，"非常明显"的 是，关税措施改变了储备管理者对美元的看法。 调查称，29%的受访者希望减少对美国资产的敞口，以应对近期的事态发展。然而，在未来一年，25% 的央行表示，在剔除那些希望增加美元敞口的央行后，它们预计将减少美元敞口，略低于过去一年。 卡斯泰利说:"当你问:你认为美元的主导地位真的会发生重大变化吗?答案是否定的。"他补充称，储备管 理者需要时间进行调整。 近80%的受访者预计，美元(目前占外汇储备的58%)仍将是全球储备货币。在未来一年，黄金是最大的 赢家，52%的央行希望增加黄金储备。 卡斯泰利表示，这主要反映出新兴市场央行对制裁风险的担忧，主要涉及存放在美国的黄金。特朗普的 政策也重新引发了德国对其央行黄金储备的质疑，其中一些黄金储备存放在纽约联邦储备银行。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银资产管理公司周四公布的一项调查显示，三分之二的央行管理者担心美联储的 独立性受到威胁，近一半的官员认为美国的法治可能会恶化到足以严重影响他们的资产配置。 近40家央行中有35%认为，美国可能会要求盟友将长期债务转换为其他工具，如超长期零息债 ...

瑞银调查显示，65%的受访者认为美联储独立性面临风险，47%的人认为风险法治恶化到足以影响资产 配置。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's potential departure has prompted the Trump administration to consider multiple candidates for his successor, with a focus on someone who aligns with Trump's economic agenda [1][2]. Group 1: Succession Planning - Trump has indicated he has "two or three top candidates" in mind to replace Powell but has not disclosed their names [1]. - Discussions have occurred regarding the possibility of appointing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to serve simultaneously as both Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman, which would break a long-standing tradition [1]. - Powell's potential continuation in his role has led to speculation about the administration's approach to selecting a successor who would be compliant with Trump's policies [2]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The current political climate surrounding the Federal Reserve is more sensitive than usual, with Powell's silence on his future causing frustration among Trump's advisors [2][3]. - Trump's ability to reshape the Federal Reserve Board is limited, as current board member Adriana Kugler's term ends in January, providing only one opportunity to fill a vacancy before Powell's term ends [2]. - The nomination of a new chairman requires Senate approval, and the narrow Republican majority means Trump can afford to lose only three votes [3]. Group 3: Powell's Influence - If Powell remains on the Board, he can still influence interest rate decisions through the Federal Open Market Committee, which consists of 19 members [4]. - The potential new chairman's influence on monetary policy is uncertain, especially if the candidate is not from the current Board [4]. - Powell's established loyalty among current Board members may provide him with leverage, regardless of who succeeds him [4].