华尔街机构认为，美国关税政策的不确定性可能是导致美联储"按兵不动"的关键因素。据CCTV国际时 讯，美国总统特朗普今天（7月30日）在其社交平台"真实社交"发文宣布，美国将从8月1日起对从印度 进口的商品征收25%的关税。特朗普还表示，美联储必须降息。 有分析指出，美联储内部的分歧正在加剧，此次议息会议可能会有不止一位美联储理事投出反对票，这 将是美联储超30年以来从未发生过的事情。 美联储即将公布 北京时间31日凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议，外界普遍预计，美联储政策制定者将连续第五次会议维持 利率目标区间在4.25%～4.5%不变。 美联储将在北京时间7月31日凌晨发布利率决议。市场普遍预期，美联储将不会有降息动作。届时市场 将高度关注美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会的讲话，寻找后续的货币政策信号。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%。美联储9 月维持利率不变的概率为34.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为63.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 1.7%。 荷兰国际集团（ING）分析师表示："我们预计本次美联储议息会议将波澜不惊——利率维持不变，缩 表节 ...

金融市场即将迎来"美联储之夜"。 北京时间31日凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议，外界普遍预计，美联储政策制定者将连续第五次会议维持利率目 标区间在4.25%～4.5%不变。 华尔街机构认为，美国关税政策的不确定性可能是导致美联储"按兵不动"的关键因素。 据CCTV国际时讯，美 国总统特朗普今天（7月30日）在其社交平台"真实社交"发文宣布，美国将从8月1日起对从印度进口的商品征 收25%的关税。特朗普还表示，美联储必须降息。 有分析指出，美联储内部的分歧正在加剧，此次议息会议可能会有不止一位美联储理事投出反对票，这将是美 联储超30年以来从未发生过的事情。 美联储即将公布 经济咨询公司MacroPolicy Perspectives创始人Julia Coronado预计，在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔可能会表示，9月将 是可能降息的会议，届时的决定将取决于美国经济数据。在9月16日至17日的议息会议之前，还将有2份就业报 告和2份消费者价格指数报告供美联储评估形势。 美联储将在北京时间7月31日凌晨发布利率决议。市场普遍预期，美联储将不会有降息动作。届时市场将高度 关注美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会的讲话，寻找后续的货币政 ...

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：我们白宫100%尊重美联储的独立性。 ...

新华财经北京7月30日电（王姝睿）美联储即将于北京时间周四凌晨宣布7月议息结果，近期舆论焦点集 中在美联储主席鲍威尔身上。特朗普政府通过公开喊话、盟友施压等多元渠道对美联储发起"史无前 例"的降息攻势，甚至出现戏剧性插曲：被视为特朗普盟友的金融大亨菲什巴克日前发起诉讼，要求美 联储公开此次议息细节，虽遭法院速裁驳回，却为这场货币政策博弈平添火药味。 美联储理事库格勒因个人原因将缺席本周的政策会议，意味着此次利率决议的投票人数将减少至11人。 尽管理事沃勒和鲍曼可能提出反对票支持降息，但委员会仍有足够多数票支持利率不变。 分析称，美联储官员们现在在是否恢复降息的问题上分裂成多个阵营。焦点将是鲍威尔是否会在新闻发 布会上提供任何关于9月降息的暗示，以及他的同事们是否在未来几天和几周内开始为下一次会议的降 息奠定基础。 美联储本周会议料面临激烈辩论 美联储政策制定者仍在等待更多数据，不过本周政策会议上辩论料更加激烈，可能会增强秋季降息的预 期。两位美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼近期表态，预示着政策制定中的潜在分歧。理事沃勒主张激进降息，认 为7月底就应行动，否则美联储可能落后于形势，他指出经济风险上升且就业市场处于"边缘状态 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing its most significant internal division in 32 years, with two board members potentially opposing Chairman Powell's stance on interest rates during the upcoming meeting, marking a historic moment for the FOMC [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Situation - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, with a 97.4% probability of no rate cut in July [1][3]. - The FOMC is reportedly divided into three factions: one advocating for immediate rate cuts, a middle group seeking more data, and a cautious faction waiting for clear signs of economic weakness [4][6]. Group 2: Key Players and Their Positions - The aggressive faction, represented by Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, is pushing for an immediate rate cut, citing concerns over a weakening labor market [5][6]. - Waller has publicly stated that a 25 basis point cut is reasonable, emphasizing the urgency of addressing labor market issues before they worsen [5][11]. - The middle faction, led by Mary Daly, is inclined to wait for more data before making any decisions on rate cuts, while the cautious faction, represented by Raphael Bostic, is wary of inflation and prefers to see clear economic signs before acting [6][8]. Group 3: Political Influences and Implications - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under significant political pressure, particularly from former President Trump, who has been perceived as attempting to influence Fed policies [8][9]. - Market observers are closely watching the July meeting for indications of the Fed's stance on independence and potential political influences, with September being viewed as a critical juncture for the institution [8][10]. - Waller's actions may also be seen as positioning himself for a potential future leadership role within the Fed, further complicating the political landscape [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions in the U.S. and the implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate decisions in light of inflation, employment, and trade agreements [2][3][10]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The probability of a rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is close to 0%, with a less than 60% chance for September, primarily due to stable employment and economic growth [2]. - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate a cautious approach to potential rate cuts, emphasizing the need for clearer economic signals before making decisions [3][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has significantly decreased, which may influence the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [5]. Group 2: Trade Agreements and Tariffs - The U.S. has reached trade agreements with key partners, including Japan and the EU, which has reduced uncertainty regarding tariffs [5]. - Current tariff levels are higher than before Trump's second term, but U.S. companies are absorbing some of these costs to maintain market share, indicating a potential impact on inflation [5]. - The article suggests that once tariffs are established, their inflation effects will be largely one-time and manageable, reducing the uncertainty that could hinder rate cuts [5][6]. Group 3: Inflation Trends - Current inflation levels have not shown significant increases, with the June CPI data indicating a year-over-year increase of 2.5% and core PCE inflation at 2.7% [7]. - Research indicates that inflation, excluding tariff impacts, is nearing the Fed's 2% target, suggesting that inflation concerns may not be a barrier to rate cuts [7][8]. Group 4: Employment and Economic Growth - Employment data shows signs of weakness, with only 147,000 new jobs added in June, primarily from government sectors, while private sector job growth appears stagnant [9]. - The article highlights concerns about the high unemployment rate among recent graduates and the potential for increased layoffs if labor demand continues to decline [9]. - Despite stable consumer spending and growth in the service sector, sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as manufacturing and real estate, are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for potential rate cuts to stimulate growth [9].

机构：激进降息或致美联储声誉受损 本次会议料将重申"耐心" 金十数据7月30日讯，MFS投资管理公司董事总经理Benoit Anne表示，美联储目前处于滞后状态。"我 们都相信未来还会有更多降息，但具体何时开始，目前尚不明确，"他表示。他指出，当前围绕政治干 预和美联储独立性的争议不断，给决策环境带来了严重干扰。他警告称："如果美联储在未来几个月内 贸然采取激进的降息举措，可能会带来一定的声誉风险。"鉴于此，预计美联储将在FOMC会议上格外 强调其"保持耐心"的立场，重申审慎决策的态度。 ...

Group 1: Overseas Policy - The report analyzes three potential scenarios regarding Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve's independence, including the nomination of aggressive rate-cutting candidates, cautious candidates, or the legal removal of Powell [2][7][9] - The current high-interest rate environment is straining the U.S. government's finances, with a potential $100 billion annual savings for every 25 basis points cut by the Fed [7][8] Group 2: Battery Industry - The report highlights the advantages of lithium metal anodes, which include high specific capacity and low electrode potential, positioning them as a long-term technological evolution direction for anodes [3][11] - The market potential for lithium metal anodes is estimated to be between 12 billion to 36 billion yuan, with a corresponding demand for lithium metal ranging from 961 tons to 2884 tons [3][11] - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in the anode industry, driven by lithium companies, anode manufacturers, and foil material suppliers, with a focus on technological advancements [11][12][13] Group 3: Beauty and Personal Care Industry - The report discusses the stock incentive plan of Jieya Co., which aims for significant revenue growth, with targets of at least 25%, 50%, and 100% growth from 2024 to 2027 [15][17] - The company is expanding its product lines and enhancing its production capacity, particularly in the wet wipes segment, with a focus on high-end products to improve profit margins [16][17] - Jieya Co. is also diversifying into medical and beauty sectors, leveraging its existing technology and partnerships to create a stable supply chain and expand its market presence [16][17] Group 4: Market Overview - The report notes the recent performance of major domestic and overseas indices, highlighting fluctuations and the need to focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI hardware for potential investment opportunities [4][6][19] - It suggests that the market may experience short-term volatility but could regain upward momentum in the medium to long term due to policy benefits and industry upgrades [21]

如果你以为美国总统和央行行长的关系总是客气礼貌、理性克制，至少表面上和气，那么特朗普的行为 总是能翻新你的认知。 尤其是"大而美法案"提出之后，特朗普的施压节奏明显加快。这个法案规模庞大，涉及减税、加关税、 扩投资，财政赤字直接冲破天花板。特朗普需要低利率来配合他的"大计划"：降低政府债务利息从而减 少支出，而且还需要刺激经济表面红火让人民感觉不到福利的削减，顺便为股市再推一把。 但鲍威尔不吃这套。他既不被装修预算吓住，也不被选举节奏绑架。他担心的不是总统的连任难题，而 是1970年代的"历史噩梦"。 7月24日，特朗普罕见现身联邦储备大楼，原本说是视察，结果更像是找茬。他直接呛鲍威尔，指着一 栋楼说翻新要花31亿美元，太离谱了！鲍威尔也不给面子，当场反驳说总统先生你数字错了，是25亿。 两人你一句我一句，仿佛下一秒就要掏出装修发票对账。 华尔街也很紧张，投行都纷纷警告说，一旦美联储被政治干预失去独立性，美元可能贬值、债市会动 荡、投资者信心将严重受损。摩根大通的分析师甚至预测，如果鲍威尔真的被炒掉，10年期美债收益率 可能直接上跳20个基点。 但这场冲突的真正焦点，根本不是大楼预算，而是——利率。 而特朗普 ...

资深市场专栏作家指出，特朗普公开施压，反而难达成降息目标。且白宫想以翻修预算超支为由罢免鲍 威尔，在法律和现实操作上障碍诸多，美联储历史上无主席任期内被强行解职先例。 7月24日，美国总统特朗普亲赴美联储总部，就高达25亿美元的"装修门"事件与鲍威尔交锋。国际关系 学院专家孙冰岩称，特朗普此举是"敲打"美联储，给鲍威尔施压。特朗普重申希望降息，估算降三个百 分点能省万亿美元。 来源:金融界 专家表示，特朗普此举是为经济"甩锅"、为未来布局，想让鲍威尔背经济放缓的锅，还想任命符合自己 意愿的新主席。这对美联储独立性造成冲击，若失去独立，美元和美国金融市场中立性将受影响。 ...