新华财经圣保罗6月16日电（记者杨家和）当地时间16日，受全球地缘紧张局势缓和、巴西国内经济数 据改善以及市场对"超级星期三"利率会议的高度关注等多重因素影响，巴西雷亚尔兑美元时隔八个月再 度涨破5.50，涨幅达1.03%。经济学家预计到2025年年底巴西雷亚尔兑美元将为5.77，之前预估5.80。 分析人士认为，全球利率政策的协同调整将直接影响新兴市场的资本流动结构。未来利差变动将成为影 响巴西吸引外资能力的重要因素。 中东风险趋缓市场风险偏好回升 随着以色列与伊朗冲突进入第四日，市场情绪趋于理性。此前由于担心袭击影响控制着全球约五分之一 石油消耗的霍尔木兹海峡，导致石油供应中断，国际市场油价一度上涨逾8%，但最新交易日收盘价格 已转为下跌。 对市场而言，这场冲突引发了避险情绪，导致投资者最初寻求美元和黄金等安全资产的庇护。上周五美 元兑其他主要货币汇率上涨，正是这种情况的体现。 但在本周第一个交易日，美元未能维持涨势，体现投资者对美国资产表现出一定的厌恶。"到目前为 止，地缘政治紧张局势对美元几乎没有提振作用，反映出市场对其避险地位的持续不信任。"埃伯里银 行（Ebury Bank)市场分析师爱德华多·穆 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming announcements from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rates and the U.S. retail sales data for May, indicating potential market movements [1] - It mentions that the price of finished oil products may experience the largest increase of the year, suggesting significant implications for the energy sector [1]

Group 1 - Domestic refined oil prices are set to enter a new round of adjustment window [1] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision [1] - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference at 14:30 [1] Group 2 - The IEA will release its monthly oil market report at 16:00 [1] - Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will be published at 17:00 [1] - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will also be released at 17:00 [1] Group 3 - The U.S. will report May retail sales month-on-month and May import price index month-on-month at 20:30 [1] - U.S. industrial production month-on-month for May will be reported at 21:15 [1] - The NAHB housing market index for June and April business inventories month-on-month will be released at 22:00 [1] Group 4 - The Bank of Canada will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting the next day [1] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 13 will be reported at 04:30 the next day [1]

隔夜要闻 本周迎来"超级央行周" 市场押注美联储本次"按兵不动"的概率接近100% 本周，迎来备受瞩目的"超级央行周"。按照日程安排，美联储、日本央行、英国央行等多国央行将公布 利率决议。对于颇受关注的美联储降息步调，市场押注美联储本次"按兵不动"的概率接近100%。此 外，市场普遍预计各国央行将保持谨慎。 德国央行行长喊话利率踩刹车：欧洲央行不应急于进一步降息 凤凰网财经讯 6月17日，美股高开高走，三大指数集体收涨，纳指涨1.52%，标普500指数涨0.94%，道 指涨0.75%。 热门中概股多数收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨2.07%。富途控股涨超10%，哔哩哔哩涨超5%，阿里 巴巴、拼多多、京东均涨超2%。 费城半导体指数涨超3%，创2月下旬以来收盘新高。 大型科技股普涨，Meta、英特尔涨近3%，苹果、特斯拉、英伟达、奈飞、谷歌涨超1%，微软涨近 1%。开云集团（Kering）涨超12%，创2008年11月以来最大单日涨幅。加密稳定币公司Circle涨超13% 至151美元，股价接近IPO发行价的5倍。 商品市场：国际油价06月16日下跌。截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所WTI原油期货当月连续合约结算价 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold surged last week, reaching a high of $3446.71, the highest in nearly two months, and opened strong today, breaking the $3450 mark with an intraday increase of nearly $20 before retracing to around $3415 [1] Group 2: Central Bank Meetings - This week is termed "Super Central Bank Week," with the market anticipating critical monetary policy meetings from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Switzerland, and the UK [2][6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with focus on the policy statement, Chairman Powell's press conference, and the dot plot [5] - The market currently sees a 95% chance of a rate cut in September and another potential cut in December, with Citigroup predicting a total reduction of 75 basis points this year [5] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate rose to 2.4% in May, with core CPI at 2.8%, which is above the Fed's 2% target, supporting the Fed's "patience" stance [5] - Concerns about potential recession are heightened by signs of weakness in the job market, adding uncertainty to the Fed's rate cut outlook [5] Group 4: International Conflicts - The situation in the Middle East is escalating, with Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, leading to significant casualties on both sides, particularly for Iran [10][11] - U.S. President Trump indicated a possibility of a future agreement between Israel and Iran but acknowledged the likelihood of military conflict [13] - In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a recent armed attack resulted in at least 318 deaths, highlighting ongoing security issues in the region [13][14]

（原标题：以色列打死伊朗情报部门负责人，以总理：伊计划向胡塞武装提供核武，如弃核，以方愿停 止行动） 【导读】持续关注伊以冲突最新消息！ 来源：综合新华网、央视新闻、中新网消息整理 当地时间6月15日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示，如果伊朗接受美国提出的放弃其核计划的要求，以色 列愿意停止其行动。他还表示，"当我们消除这些能力时，这一切就会结束，我们一定会这样做。" 内塔尼亚胡称，以色列与美国分享了伊朗正在研制核武器的情报："很明显，他们正在制定一项将铀武 器化的秘密计划。他们的进展非常迅速。他们将在几个月内，甚至不到一年的时间内，制造出一个测试 装置，甚至可能是一个初始装置。这就是我们与美国分享的情报。" 他还指责伊朗正在制定向也门胡塞武装提供核武器的计划。 内塔尼亚胡表示，以色列和美国"完全协调"。 以色列打死伊朗情报部门负责人 当地时间6月15日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡证实以色列打死伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队情报部门负责人穆罕默 德·卡泽米及其副手哈桑·穆哈奇克将军。 当天稍晚时，伊朗方面确认了这一消息。 伊朗外交部大楼遭以军空袭 当地时间6月15日，位于德黑兰的伊朗外交部大楼在最近的以色列空袭中遭到袭击。 此前一天 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recent macroeconomic indicators, including the lower-than-expected U.S. CPI of 2.4% for May, and anticipates significant central bank decisions this week, particularly from the U.S., Japan, and the UK [1] - The U.S. May CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, while the previous value was revised from 2.3% [1] - The U.S. May PPI year-on-year remained at 2.6%, matching expectations, with the previous value revised from 2.4% to 2.5% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 7 were reported at 248,000, slightly above the expected 240,000, with the previous value revised to 248,000 [1] - China's May CPI year-on-year was reported at -0.1%, better than the expected -0.2%, while the previous value remained at -0.1% [1] - China's M2 money supply year-on-year growth was reported at 7.9%, below the expected 8.1% and the previous value of 8% [1] - The Federal Reserve's quarterly financial accounts report indicated a decline in U.S. household assets for the first quarter of 2023, marking the first decrease since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - Key upcoming events include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and economic projections on June 19, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell [1] - The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England will also announce their rate decisions on June 19 [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor will speak at a trust association meeting on June 20 [2]

目前，期货市场押注美联储本次"按兵不动"的概率高达99%。交易员关注的焦点将重点转向政策声明、美联储 主席鲍威尔新闻发布会以及利率点阵图，试图寻找未来降息路径的信号。 另外，日本央行的动作也备受市场关注。尽管市场普遍预计日本央行本周将维持利率不变，但市场焦点将转向 前瞻指引。如果日本央行官员更强调"谨慎"和"无需急于行动"，市场可能将下一次加息预期推迟到2026年第一 季度。 中东局势突变搅动市场 全球"超级央行周"即将来袭。 上周金融市场动荡不安，以色列空袭伊朗引发市场避险情绪升温，美股三大指数全线下挫，恐慌指数VIX飙 升。本周市场将迎来极为关键的美联储利率决议，同时日本、瑞士、英国等央行也将陆续召开货币政策会议。 上周，受中东紧张局势升级的影响，美股三大指数全线下挫，道指上周累计跌幅达1.32%，标普500指数累计 下跌0.39%，纳指累跌0.63%，均终结周线两连涨。 衡量市场波动性的芝加哥期权交易所（Cboe）恐慌指数VIX卷土重来，暴涨22%，重返长期均值20上方。 蒙特利尔银行金融集团（BMO）首席经济学家波特表示："中东紧张局势给本已紧张的全球经济前景突然注入 了又一个新的风险源。" 目前来看 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data Release - The National Bureau of Statistics will release macroeconomic data for May on June 16, with expectations of positive indicators in industrial output, consumption, and investment [2] - Predicted year-on-year growth rates include 5.85% for industrial added value, 4.85% for retail sales of consumer goods, and 3.96% for fixed asset investment [2] - The latest confidence index from First Financial indicates a value of 50.50, suggesting a return to above the neutral line, reflecting optimism in the economy [2] Group 2: Index Sample Adjustments - Shenzhen Stock Exchange indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index will undergo sample adjustments effective June 16 [3][4][5] - New additions to the Shenzhen Component Index include 20 stocks such as Zhongtung High-tech and Gansu Energy, while 20 stocks like Nanbo A and Tianmao Group will be removed [3] - The ChiNext Index will add 8 stocks including BlueFocus and Changying Precision, while removing 8 stocks such as Anke Bio and Steel Research High-tech [4] Group 3: Oil Price Adjustment - A new round of fuel price adjustments will take place on June 17 at 24:00, with a projected increase of 155 CNY per ton for gasoline and diesel based on current crude oil prices averaging 66 USD per barrel [6] Group 4: Upcoming Events - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum is scheduled for June 18-19, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on financial openness and high-quality development amid global economic changes [7] Group 5: Stock Unlocking - From June 16 to June 20, 48 stocks in the A-share market will face unlocking, with a total market value exceeding 454 billion CNY, including over 100 billion CNY from Diya Shares [9][10] Group 6: New Stock Issuance - One new stock, Xintong Electronics, is set to be issued on June 20, with approximately 39 million shares expected to raise 541 million CNY [14]

Group 1 - The demand for USD put options is strong amid a weakening dollar, with prices for these options exceeding those for call options, particularly in the euro to USD risk reversal options, where the premium for USD puts reached a five-year high in May [1] - Two main factors supporting the dollar are the extreme divergence between the dollar and interest rates, and geopolitical tensions leading to rising oil prices, which may favor the dollar due to liquidity advantages [1] - The Swiss franc has seen the largest fluctuations against the dollar across all time frames, particularly a -1.12% change over one week, while the dollar index has remained relatively stable [2] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate rose from 1.3525 to 1.3598, reaching a high since June 5, driven by USD selling pressure, despite previous declines due to weak UK GDP data [5] - Analysts expect the UK economy to contract more than anticipated in Q2, with a 0.3% contraction in April, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts later this year [5] - The Japanese yen's appeal as a safe-haven currency has been bolstered by the Japanese government's cautious stance on trade negotiations with the US, with expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current interest rate policy [6] Group 3 - The euro to USD exchange rate surpassed 1.1600, reaching a three-year high, with the options market prepared for this rise through risk reversal options and direct purchases of euro call options [7] - The European Central Bank's interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, although there may be policy adjustments in upcoming meetings [8]