Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a strong domestic market as a strategic foundation for China's modernization, highlighting the need to expand domestic demand and enhance the interaction between consumption and investment [1] Group 1: Domestic Market Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to boost consumption, expand effective investment, and eliminate barriers to building a unified national market as key strategies for strengthening the domestic market [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission stresses the need to understand domestic market development laws and enhance the role of domestic demand in economic support [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article discusses the need to stimulate private investment and clarify investment directions for both central and local governments, focusing on high-quality projects that meet development needs [2] - It highlights a strategic shift in investment from quantity expansion to quality improvement, emphasizing precise allocation of limited funds to enhance national competitiveness and promote social equity [2] Group 3: Major Projects and Infrastructure - The implementation of significant landmark projects in urban renewal, strategic transportation corridors, new energy systems, and major water conservancy projects is outlined as a means to sustain infrastructure investment growth [3] Group 4: Unified Market Construction - The establishment of a unified national market is crucial for facilitating a smooth domestic circulation of resources, with ongoing efforts to reduce market access barriers and streamline regulations [4] - The article notes that the number of market access negative list items has decreased from 328 to 106, indicating progress in removing obstacles to resource flow [4] Group 5: Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - The focus on boosting consumer spending includes optimizing the environment, innovating consumption scenarios, and enhancing residents' consumption capacity [5] - The article stresses the importance of increasing residents' income and improving social security systems to support consumption growth [5] Group 6: Role of Capital Markets - Capital markets are identified as key players in expanding domestic demand, with expectations for a bull market to amplify consumer spending [6] - The article suggests that consumer growth should reach 5% to 6% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a target for final consumption to account for over 60% of GDP by 2030 [6]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a high-quality regional economic layout and spatial system, highlighting the need for modern governance in mega cities and the integration of urban clusters [1] - It discusses the cultivation of multiple urban clusters and economic cores to create a coordinated development pattern, leveraging innovation, industrial upgrades, and regional collaboration [1][2] - The article outlines the expected addition of 5,500 to 6,000 kilometers of suburban and intercity railways, along with 3,000 kilometers of urban rail transit, to enhance infrastructure connectivity [2] Group 2 - It highlights the systematic promotion of modern governance in mega cities, focusing on urban renewal to optimize living environments and stimulate domestic demand [3] - The article mentions that urban renewal will create new demands for infrastructure upgrades, generating a market space worth trillions of yuan for related industries [3] - It specifies that approximately 600,000 kilometers of various urban pipelines will need to be updated in the next five years, alongside improvements in disaster prevention and new infrastructure investments exceeding one trillion yuan annually [3] Group 3 - The article advocates for a differentiated development approach for small and medium-sized cities, emphasizing unique characteristics and quality improvements [4] - It suggests that small cities near core urban areas can sustain growth by absorbing industrial overflow and achieving commuting integration [5] - The article stresses the need for regional coordinated development as an inherent requirement of Chinese modernization, aiming to optimize productivity layout and enhance domestic market space [5]

Group 1 - The overall outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains cautious but optimistic, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support such as new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology [3][6] - The market experienced significant fluctuations in October, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a peak on October 2 before declining due to heightened concerns over US-China trade tensions [4][13] - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) decreased from 13.18 to 12.76 by the end of October, indicating a drop in market valuation [20][21] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment shows a weakening fundamental backdrop, with domestic economic data indicating a continued bottoming phase [5][32] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological innovation and expanding domestic demand, aiming to enhance the internal economic cycle [65] - The Hong Kong market is heavily influenced by external factors, particularly US economic data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which are critical for market sentiment [66][68] Group 3 - In October, southbound capital inflows into the Hong Kong market totaled HKD 92.5 billion, reflecting a strong liquidity support despite a decrease from previous months [25][30] - The financial sector saw significant net inflows, indicating a shift towards defensive investment strategies amid market volatility [25][30] - Key stocks benefiting from this trend included China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Mobile, which ranked among the top net inflows for the month [30][31]

Core Insights - The article discusses the Central Committee's proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for a high-quality regional economic layout and spatial system, focusing on modernizing governance in mega cities and promoting urban agglomeration integration [1][2] Group 1: Regional Economic Development - The proposal aims to cultivate multiple urban agglomerations and economic cores to create a coordinated development pattern that emphasizes high-quality growth and resource optimization [1] - Key urban clusters such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are highlighted for their roles in technological innovation and financial openness [1][2] - The development of central and western regions, such as the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, is accelerating, creating new growth poles for talent and industry expansion [1][2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Connectivity - The plan includes enhancing infrastructure connectivity through the construction of cross-regional and cross-basin transportation networks, with an expected addition of 5,500 to 6,000 kilometers of suburban and intercity railways over the next decade [2] - A modern transportation network will support regional development by facilitating efficient movement of people and goods [2] - The strategy promotes a tiered industrial layout, with high-end resources concentrating in first-tier cities while basic manufacturing shifts to peripheral cities and central regions [2] Group 3: Urban Renewal and Investment - Urban renewal initiatives are set to improve living conditions and stimulate demand in sectors like construction, building materials, and community services, potentially unlocking trillions of yuan in investment [3] - The focus on upgrading urban infrastructure will include the renovation of approximately 600,000 kilometers of urban pipelines over the next five years [3] - Investment in new infrastructure, including 5G and AI, is projected to exceed one trillion yuan annually, driving digital and intelligent urban transformation [3] Group 4: Small and Medium City Development - The development of small and medium cities should shift from a homogenized approach to one that emphasizes unique characteristics and high-quality growth [4] - Different types of small cities will receive tailored development opportunities, leveraging their proximity to core cities or resource advantages [4] - Regional coordinated development is essential for modernizing China's economy, requiring optimized productivity layouts and the activation of key growth areas [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the Central Committee's proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the construction of a high-quality regional economic layout and spatial system, marking the first time such governance modernization and urban integration are highlighted in a five-year plan [1] Group 1: Regional Economic Development - The proposal aims to cultivate multiple urban clusters and economic cores to create a coordinated development pattern that emphasizes high-quality growth through innovation, industrial upgrading, and regional collaboration [1][2] - The plan seeks to enhance the roles of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area in driving technological innovation and financial openness [1][2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Connectivity - The initiative includes accelerating the construction of cross-regional and cross-basin transportation networks, with an expected addition of 5,500 to 6,000 kilometers of suburban and intercity railways and 3,000 kilometers of urban rail transit over the next decade [2] - A modern transportation network is envisioned to support regional interconnected development, facilitating the efficient flow of high-end resources to major cities while allowing manufacturing and supporting industries to shift to peripheral cities and central cities in the Midwest [2] Group 3: Urban Renewal and Investment - The focus on urban renewal aims to optimize living environments and unlock domestic demand, with significant investments expected in infrastructure upgrades, including the renovation of 600,000 kilometers of urban pipelines and improvements in disaster prevention systems [3] - The anticipated investment in new infrastructure, such as 5G and industrial internet, is projected to exceed one trillion yuan annually over the next five years, driving digital and intelligent urban transformation [3] Group 4: Small and Medium City Development - The article advocates for a shift in the development of small and medium cities from a homogenized approach to one that emphasizes unique characteristics and high-quality growth, leveraging local cultural resources and optimizing public services [4] - Different types of small and medium cities are expected to receive differentiated development opportunities, with those near core cities benefiting from industrial spillover and integrated commuting [4]

证券研究报告 经济渐入稳态，风偏继续提升 ——2026年经济与资产展望 大类资产首席分析师：孙付 SAC NO：S1120520050004 2025年11月4日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 核心观点 经济基本面展望： 政策展望： 2 ● 2026是"十五五"开局之年，技术革命浪潮风起云涌、科技自强自立迈向新征程，中国经济的全要素劳动生产率和 产业竞争力将继续提升，供给端优势将进一步显现。 外需：产业和产品的较强竞争力是支撑，中美经贸关系步入阶段性缓和，出口多元化格局进一步塑造，汇率保持相对弹 性，出口有望总体稳定。 内需：扩大内需是战略基点，短期政策刺激和长期机制完善将共同促内需。财政和货币政策将继续积极加码发力支持消 费和有效投资。统一大市场建设和要素市场化改革将清理内需扩张障碍，增进内需潜能。 ● 物价：在食品价格企稳、文娱消费延续回升、反内卷破除恶性价格竞争下，2026年物价将回升，预计CPI中枢0.6%， PPI中枢-0.8%，下半年GDP平减指数将转正。 ● GDP增速：综合经济增长趋势特征与宏观政策效能，预计2026年实际GDP增速在4.5%附近，名义GDP增速约4.7%，名义 增 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong province is launching the "Yue Enjoy Warm Winter, Happy Travel Guangdong" consumption season, aiming to attract tourists and stimulate local economic growth through a series of promotional activities and financial incentives [2][3][11]. Group 1: Event Overview - The consumption season will run from November 2025 to March 2026, coinciding with significant events such as the 15th National Games and the APEC summit [4][5]. - The initiative aims to showcase Guangdong's vibrant culture and economic vitality while enhancing consumer spending and stabilizing economic growth [6][12]. Group 2: Financial Commitment - The provincial government has allocated 3.5 billion yuan (approximately 500 million USD) in special funds to support the consumption season, with a performance-based distribution model to encourage local governments to increase their investment [21][22]. - Various consumer vouchers will be issued, covering dining, tourism, and product purchases, with maximum subsidies reaching 5,000 yuan per vehicle and 1,000 yuan per appliance [23][24]. Group 3: Promotional Activities - The event will feature four main activities designed to create a layered promotional effect, including themed tourism routes linked to the National Games and APEC summit, as well as cultural performances during the Spring Festival [29][30][38]. - Guangdong aims to develop five major consumption brands focusing on shopping, dining, sightseeing, leisure, and fitness, promoting local specialties and cultural experiences [41][44]. Group 4: Implementation Strategy - The initiative will employ a synchronized approach between provincial and municipal levels, ensuring coordinated planning, marketing, and consumer protection measures [47][49]. - Six major discount policies will be introduced to attract consumers, including dining vouchers and discounts for tourists and event participants [53][55].

Core Points - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has achieved significant accomplishments despite complex international and domestic challenges, laying a solid foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development, innovation, and the establishment of a modern industrial system, focusing on intelligent and green upgrades of traditional industries and the growth of strategic emerging industries [1][18] - The plan aims to expand domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, with a focus on boosting consumption and effective investment [1][26] Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, requiring efforts to consolidate advantages and overcome bottlenecks [7][8] - The plan highlights the importance of a modern industrial system as the material and technical foundation for Chinese-style modernization, emphasizing the need for intelligent, green, and integrated development [18] - The plan outlines the necessity of enhancing the national innovation system and improving self-reliance in technology to drive new quality productivity [22][23] Group 2 - The plan stresses the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation for building a new development pattern, focusing on consumer spending and effective investment [26][27] - It emphasizes the need for a high-level socialist market economy system to ensure sustainable high-quality development [29] - The plan includes measures to enhance the quality of life for citizens, improve income distribution, and strengthen social security systems [2][10] Group 3 - The plan aims to promote green development and national security, with specific targets for carbon peak and the establishment of a new energy system [2][17] - It outlines the importance of regional coordinated development and optimizing the economic layout to enhance overall national competitiveness [41][42] - The plan includes initiatives to foster cultural innovation and development, enhancing the influence of Chinese culture globally [45][47]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumer spending as a strategic focus for the next five years, highlighting measures to encourage residents to consume confidently and willingly [1]. Group 1: Current Focus on Boosting Consumption - The government plans to enhance consumer spending through direct policies aimed at consumers, increasing government funding for social welfare, and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption in sectors like automobiles and housing [3][4]. - Key strategies include optimizing the consumption environment, innovating consumption scenarios, and reducing limitations, while also expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services [4]. Group 2: Long-term Strategies for Enhancing Consumer Capacity - The focus is on increasing residents' consumption capacity by synchronizing income growth with economic growth, emphasizing stable employment and income distribution [5]. - Measures will include enhancing the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution and improving labor remuneration in initial distribution [5]. Group 3: Expanding Effective Investment - The government aims to optimize investment structures and stimulate private investment by addressing barriers in market access, resource acquisition, and legal enforcement [6]. - Future plans include implementing significant flagship projects in urban renewal, strategic transportation corridors, new energy systems, and major water conservancy projects [7].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, while also promoting international circulation and sharing opportunities with the world [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Market and Demand - The plan highlights the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand, leveraging China's large population of over 1.4 billion and more than 400 million middle-income groups, which contribute nearly 50 trillion RMB in consumption and over 20 trillion RMB in imports annually [1]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to further enlarge China's super-large market, promoting a strong domestic circulation [1]. Group 2: International Trade and Investment - The plan advocates for a balanced development of trade and investment, focusing on market diversification and the integration of domestic and foreign trade [3]. - It proposes to enhance bilateral investment cooperation, attract foreign investment, and promote orderly cross-border layout of industrial and supply chains [3]. - The plan also emphasizes the internationalization of the RMB and the establishment of a self-controlled cross-border payment system, reflecting a proactive approach compared to previous plans [3]. Group 3: Service Trade Development - Service trade is identified as a key area for development, with a focus on expanding market access and encouraging service exports [2]. - The plan aims to improve the management of cross-border service trade and enhance the standardization of service trade [2]. - China's service industry is currently lagging behind in comparison to its global trade and manufacturing sectors, but recent efforts are being made to relax restrictions in telecommunications, internet, education, culture, and healthcare [2]. Group 4: Global Economic Engagement - China is adopting a more confident approach to opening its market, providing development opportunities for other countries while also increasing outbound investments [4]. - The country aims to share its market and technological advantages with the world, promoting a fair and cooperative international economic order [5].