A 股策略周报 20250511 修复之后，关注变化 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ➢ 经济潜在的走弱即将验证，而对政策期待还需要时间兑现。此前全球大部分 市场基于贸易争端缓和预期的修复是一种短暂的平静，资产的波动率可能将再次 放大。本周中美市场似乎已经摸到"天花板"：A 股、港股都在刚好接近 4 月 2 日水平之前出现回落，美股在修复到 4 月 2 日水平时开始止步不前，两个市场都 需要支撑上涨的进一步证据。A 股自 4 月 2 日以来涨幅前 10 的二级行业平均海 外营收占比是 10%，而跌幅前 10 的二级行业平均海外营收占比是 8%，意味着 A 股的进一步修复要么需要贸易上出现积极改善信号，促使落后的外需型行业反 弹，要么是内部出现增量的扩内需政策。就前者而言，虽然中美经贸高层会谈于 当地时间 10 日上午在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，但从本周美国高调公布的"重大贸 易协议"仅是与英国之间达成了一份模糊的协议来看，要中美之间通过一次会议 接触就拿出一份有重大进展的贸易协议的难度很高，"夹在"中国供给和美国需 求之间的越南股市的较差表现也侧面印证了这一点。就后者而言，中美两国政策 都进入了"自动巡航"的阶段 ...

"十五五"规划作为我国迈向2035年基本实现现代化的重要衔接规划，其出台对于指导未来五年乃至更长时间的经济社会发展具有重要意义。新时期，"十 五五"规划将面临世界经济急剧变化、规则剧变、战略定位与实际执行反差等挑战，国家发改委及地方相关机构已启动了前期研究工作，以确保地方规划 能够准确把握时代脉搏，推动经济社会的高质量发展。 文旅五年规划历史脉络 早期阶段 资源整合与基础设施建设(2000 年以前) 在20世纪末，文化和旅游产业的发展主要集中在基础设施的建设和资源整合阶段。政府通过兴建景区、提升文化设施，逐步将旅游资源和文化资源进行整 合，推动了旅游业和文化产业的初步融合。 2000-2010年 文化和旅游相互渗透旅游业在这段时间迎来了快速增长，国家提出了"旅游强国"的战略目标，促进了旅游资源的开发。2000年后，文化产业逐渐被纳入国 家的战略规划,《文化产业振兴规划》颁布，文化产业与经济发展更紧密结合。 2011-2015年 文化旅游的深度融合 十二五规划:文化产业被列为国民经济支柱产业，文化与旅游的结合进一步深化。旅游开始转向多元化和定制化，文化元素被注入到旅游资源中，例如文 化节庆、非遗旅游、乡村文化体 ...

A 股策略周报 20250511 修复之后，关注变化 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ➢ 经济潜在的走弱即将验证，而对政策期待还需要时间兑现。此前全球大部分 市场基于贸易争端缓和预期的修复是一种短暂的平静，资产的波动率可能将再次 放大。本周中美市场似乎已经摸到"天花板"：A 股、港股都在刚好接近 4 月 2 日水平之前出现回落，美股在修复到 4 月 2 日水平时开始止步不前，两个市场都 需要支撑上涨的进一步证据。A 股自 4 月 2 日以来涨幅前 10 的二级行业平均海 外营收占比是 10%，而跌幅前 10 的二级行业平均海外营收占比是 8%，意味着 A 股的进一步修复要么需要贸易上出现积极改善信号，促使落后的外需型行业反 弹，要么是内部出现增量的扩内需政策。就前者而言，虽然中美经贸高层会谈于 当地时间 10 日上午在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，但从本周美国高调公布的"重大贸 易协议"仅是与英国之间达成了一份模糊的协议来看，要中美之间通过一次会议 接触就拿出一份有重大进展的贸易协议的难度很高，"夹在"中国供给和美国需 求之间的越南股市的较差表现也侧面印证了这一点。就后者而言，中美两国政策 都进入了"自动巡航"的阶段 ...

面对急剧变化的外部环境，强大的国内市场是我们的信心和底气。一季度，社会消费品零售总额同比增 长4.6%，增速比上年全年加快1.1个百分点；新能源乘用车零售量增长36.4%，渗透率达47.2%；全国电 影票房244亿元，同比增长约48%，创历史新高……消费市场实现平稳开局，我国超大规模市场的活力 潜力进一步释放。以更大力度促进消费、扩大内需、做强国内大循环，把内需潜力充分激发出来，经济 发展的动力就会更强劲。 市场，是机遇的代名词。巨大人口基数所孕育的超大规模市场，形成巨大的比较优势。这意味着市场需 求庞大、层次多样、模式丰富，消费梯度差异会带来不断拓展的市场纵深；也意味着更多创新场景、更 低创新成本、更高创新收益，新产品、新技术通过大规模应用和持续迭代，有机会加快转化为新质生产 力。 超大规模市场优势正在为创新企业带来新空间。在消费者画图"许愿"希望有一台能分区洗衣的洗衣机 后，小米便推出"一大一小"双筒洗衣机，引爆市场。海尔又将"双筒"升级为"三筒"，更好回应消费者需 求、解决痛点，一周之内预售超8万台。 这样的超大规模市场也成为外贸企业的重要依托。近段时间，相关部门加大力度调度推进内外贸一体 化，多家行业 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 高关税之下，出口结构有变化 据海关总署，2025 年 4 月出口总值为 3157 亿美元，同比增长 8.1%，高于市场预期的 1.9%，前值为 12.4%；进口总值为 2195 亿美元，同比下降 0.2%，预期-5.9%，前值-4.3%。4月以来中美贸易紧张局势逐渐升 级，美国对华关税提高至 145%，中国也采取了反制措施，如何看待 4 月份进出口数据？ 一是美国加征关税的影响开始显现。4 月对美出口同比下降 20.9%，为 2023 年 7 月以来最低增速；拖累出 口同比约 3 个百分点。美国 10%基准关税于 4 月 5 日生效，其他更高对等关税于 4 月 9 日陆续生效。而对来自 中国（含香港）的小包免税待遇，于 5 月 2 日取消。根据美国海关发布的文件，美国关税生效之前已装船并处于 最终运输模式，在规定时间前到达美国，可豁免关税。因而 4 月对美出口受到关税的部分影响，更全面的影响可 能体现在 5 月数据之中。 美国加征关税冲击下，周边经济体出口走势分化。韩国 4 月出口同比增幅为 3 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 节前一周，政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容。 （一）全国人大动态 ： 4 月 30 日，全国人大常委会表决通过民营经济促进法，该法将于 5 月 20 日 正式实施。 （二）总书记重要行程 ： 1 ） 4 月 29 日， 总书记在上海考察，并在上海"模速空间"大模型创新生 态社区调研，对上海积极发展人工智能取得的实效给予肯定。 2 ） 4 月 30 日，总书记主持召开部分 省区市"十五五"时期经济社会发展座谈会，强调谋划"十五五"时期经济社会发展，要"要坚定不移办好 自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放"，"更加注重统筹发展和安全"，"把因地制宜发展新质生产 力摆在更加突出的战略位置"，"稳步推动共同富裕"等。 （三）发改委及财政部政策吹风 ： 1 ） 4 月 28 日 ， 国新办就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措 施有关情况举行发布会，发改委表示，" 提振消费方面 ，近期我们已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧 换新资金，前两批一共下达超过 ...

Economic Growth and Policy Response - China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, laying a solid foundation for the annual growth target of around 5% [1] - The positive economic performance is attributed to proactive macro policies and some companies engaging in "export rush" to avoid high tariffs [1] - Despite the better-than-expected performance, there are still issues with insufficient effective demand that need to be addressed for sustained recovery [1] External Trade and Tariff Impact - The U.S. has imposed comprehensive tariffs, negatively impacting global trade and economic conditions [1] - In response to the adverse external environment, China has intensified its economic stabilization policies [1] - The Chinese government is focused on improving employment and economic stability through a series of specific measures [1][2] Financial Policy Measures - A package of financial policies will be introduced to stabilize market expectations, including interest rate cuts and support for consumption and investment [2] - The government aims to enhance the financial system to support the real economy and stabilize the housing market [2] Support for Foreign Trade Enterprises - There is a need for targeted support for foreign trade enterprises affected by U.S. tariffs, including market diversification and promoting new business models like cross-border e-commerce [7] - The government should monitor and provide tailored support for vulnerable small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises [7] Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - To boost consumption, it is essential to create more consumption scenarios and expand into underdeveloped sectors such as the silver economy and sports entertainment [8] - Increasing residents' income through various measures, including wage growth and subsidies, is crucial for enhancing consumer spending [9] Investment Strategies - Effective investment should align with consumer demand and public needs, focusing on projects that enhance living standards, such as charging facilities and parking spaces [10] - The government is encouraged to remove restrictions in the consumption sector to stimulate investment and consumption [11] Market Confidence and Expectations - The introduction of significant reforms and policies is expected to stabilize market expectations and enhance confidence in the economy [12] - Strengthening policy implementation and market interaction is vital for maintaining stable expectations and boosting market confidence [12]

2025 年零售行业分析 联合资信 工商评级二部 2024 年，社零增速放缓，在储蓄意愿增强以及外部宏观环境影响下，零售市场消费需求不 足，消费信心仍有待提振。其中，网络零售仍为消费增长的主要驱动力，但增速有所放缓；百 货业态增长乏力，提升改造与投入产出匹配存在难度；连锁业态展现出一定发展韧性，但回暖 趋势不明显，行业内资本事件重启，整合后规模效应和协同效应有待进一步观察。 展望 2025 年，全球经济格局深度调整，地缘政治局势复杂多变，国内对外贸易正面临着 前所未有的挑战，不确定性显著加大，扩大内需成为稳定经济增长的"压舱石"。预计，2025 年政府针对消费领域的政策支持将延续并有望加大力度，但政策落地效果取决于居民消费能力 和消费意愿的提升；网络零售仍将是消费增长的主要驱动力，实体零售企业经营持续承压，具 备贴近消费者需求的经营策略、全渠道服务能力与良好经营效率的企业有望实现结构性增长。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业运行情况 （一）行业概况 2024 年，消费支出对拉动 GDP 增长起到重要作用，但消费增速放缓，百货业态 经营压力较大；居民收入增速放缓、储蓄意愿增强以及在外部 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing consumption quality and expanding domestic demand as key topics for the 2025 National Two Sessions, highlighting the need for consumers to feel confident and willing to spend [1] - Lin's Home has established a quality ecosystem through its smart manufacturing industrial cluster, focusing on "assured consumption" and implementing comprehensive quality control measures to boost consumer confidence and stimulate demand in the home furnishing industry [1][15] Group 1: Quality Management System - Lin's Home has created a traceable and actionable management system, moving away from traditional self-owned factory models to a "cooperative supplier" model, which presents higher management challenges but allows for innovative quality control [3][4] - The industrial park has introduced a "four aspects in place" management system that covers 13 quality inspection checkpoints, ensuring accountability at every stage of production [4] - The use of upgraded raw materials, such as ENF-grade boards and odorless coconut fiber, is part of Lin's Home's commitment to quality, with a focus on improving user experience through product development [6] Group 2: Digital Transformation - The industrial park leverages digitalization to enhance the quality management system, transforming traditional isolated production into a highly efficient collaborative model [8] - Lin's Home has developed a Manufacturing Operations Management (MOM) system to streamline business processes and ensure timely and quality delivery of products [8][10] - The introduction of automated equipment in production, such as advanced cutting machines, has improved resource utilization by 10% and enhanced quality management [10] Group 3: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The industrial park serves as a testing ground for Lin's Home's "quality-price ratio" strategy, focusing on ergonomic designs and optimizing product features based on user data [12][14] - The successful launch of popular products like the "Dynamic Island Sofa" and "Zero Fatigue Mattress" has demonstrated the effectiveness of the quality management system, with over 80% of production capacity handled by the industrial park [14] - Lin's Home's approach is creating a ripple effect in the industry, promoting a shift from decentralized manufacturing to collaborative quality production, thus providing a replicable model for small and medium suppliers [14][15]

Group 1 - The market has shown resilience in liquidity due to external risk expectations and strong policy support for medium to long-term capital inflow [1] - The performance of A-shares is expected to improve as financing may stop its outflow process, creating new opportunities for inflow when new themes emerge [1] - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate of all A-shares is expected to decline compared to Q4 2024, while the net profit growth rate is expected to turn positive, indicating significant improvement [1] Group 2 - On Thursday, the A-share market opened lower but experienced upward fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3359 points [2] - The focus of policies has shifted towards expanding domestic demand, with attention on the implementation of fiscal policies and consumption stimulus measures [2] - The central bank has signaled easing, and the increase in financing balance is expected to support market liquidity, with ETF funds continuing to flow in [2] Group 3 - The three major indices collectively rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining above the 5-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend [3] - A series of financial policies were released, signaling the start of new incremental policies aimed at enhancing economic resilience and stability [3] - More incremental policies are expected to be introduced, particularly in fiscal policy, domestic demand expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [3]