Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the international oil market will continue to experience high volatility in 2025, with oil prices fluctuating between $60 and $80 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressures [1][2] - From January to May 2025, oil prices showed a downward trend, decreasing from $80 per barrel to $60 per barrel, influenced by trade disputes and OPEC+ production increases [1] - In June 2025, oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, driven by escalating geopolitical situations in the Middle East, leading to a wider volatility range [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that in the second half of 2025, oil prices will remain relatively low, with Brent crude expected to fluctuate between $60 and $70 per barrel [2] - Factors such as the de-escalation of international trade disputes and increased summer demand in the U.S. are expected to support oil prices in the third quarter, with Brent crude likely to hover around $65 per barrel [2] - In the fourth quarter, a lack of positive news is expected to lead to a return to a weak oil price trend, with Brent crude potentially falling back to $60 per barrel by year-end [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨，环比增幅3.5%,同 比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为32.1788%，环比减少0.72个百分点，全国 样本企业出货28.83万吨，环比增加5.99%,样本企业产量为53.7万吨，环比减少2.18%,样本企 业装置检修量预估为74.1万吨，环比增加4.66%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将 增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为30.4%，环比减少0.03个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为14.0559%，环比减少0. ...

Market Overview - On June 26, PTA futures experienced fluctuations, with the spot market showing general negotiations and a weakening basis. The trading range for this week and next week is between 09+255 to 265, with some transactions slightly lower, and the price negotiation range is around 4990 to 5050 [1] - The main spot basis is at 09+259 [1] Cost Analysis - As of June 26, the PTA spot processing fee is approximately 408 yuan/ton, while the TA2509 market processing fee is 367 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: This week, Yisheng New Materials reduced its operating load to 360,000 tons, resulting in PTA load dropping to 77.7% (-1.4%) by Thursday [3] - Demand: A nearby unit is undergoing maintenance, and a bottle chip factory is implementing production cuts, leading to a slight decrease in polyester load to around 91.2% (-0.8%). The operating rates for weaving, knitting, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have slightly adjusted, with rates at 76% (-1%), 66% (+1%), and 67% (-1%) respectively. Orders in the grey fabric sector have shown slight improvement, particularly in the Haining area, although feedback from other regions remains relatively weak. Concerns over escalating Middle East tensions have led to some replenishment in downstream polyester filament, but after the reduction of oil prices due to the dissipating geopolitical factors, raw material prices have fallen, leading to discounts in filament prices. Currently, downstream raw material inventory is primarily at 7-15 days, with sporadic high inventory levels at 20-30 days [3] Market Outlook - Despite maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli facilities, the expectation for PTA supply and demand is weakening due to the commissioning of new facilities, limited future maintenance plans, and continuous signals of production cuts from downstream polyester factories. The overall demand remains weak, leading to a sustained decline in terminal load. The limited driving force from oil prices suggests that PTA will experience limited upward momentum in the short term, with fluctuations expected to remain within the 4600-4900 range. A cautious approach is recommended for TA trading strategies [4]

Group 1 - WTI crude oil has surpassed $65 per barrel, with an intraday increase of 0.56% [1]

Group 1 - ICE cotton futures prices have surged to a one-month high, driven by a weaker dollar and rising oil prices [1] - The increase in cotton prices may indicate broader market trends influenced by currency fluctuations and commodity prices [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring these developments to assess their impact on the cotton industry and related sectors [1]

如何看待当前全球石油供需格局及其对未来油价趋势的影响？ 当前全球石油供需格局主要由四个关键地区决定：欧洲、北美、中东和亚太。 这些地区之间存在复杂的互动关系，自 2010 年美国页岩油快速增产以来，这 种关系发生了重大变化。美国从一个缺乏石油供应的国家转变为能够出口石油， 并且主要出口到邻近国家和欧洲，这背后也有美国寻找市场资源的一部分原因。 中东地区则越来越依赖亚太市场，包括中国、日本、韩国、台湾以及印度等消 费大国。因此，中东石油通过霍尔木兹海峡出口到亚太地区成为常态，每天约 有 2000 万桶石油经过该海峡。如果伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，将严重影响亚太 地区而非欧美国家，因为这些石油主要流向亚太。因此，从长远来看，中东地 缘政治事件虽然可能引发短期供给忧虑，但由于其出口结构，对全球整体供需 格局不会造成根本性改变。 美国页岩油生产对全球原油市场有何影响？ 能源石化化工专家：伊朗问题解读与未来油价趋势展望 20260626 摘要 2025 年上半年，受中东地缘政治冲突影响，油价短期飙升后迅速回落， 凸显地缘政治事件对油价的短期冲击，但长期影响有限，因中东石油主 要出口至亚太地区。 美国页岩油产量自 2010 ...

Summary of EON Resources Inc. Special Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: EON Resources Inc. - **Industry**: Oil and Gas, specifically focusing on the Permian Basin Key Points and Arguments 1. **Acquisition Announcement**: EON Resources has acquired the South Justice Field in the Permian Basin, New Mexico, for a total of 1 million shares of Class A common stock, valued at approximately $500,000 in cash [5][7][20]. 2. **Current Production and Cash Flow**: The field is currently cash flowing $100,000 per month, translating to an annual net cash flow of $1.2 million [8][20]. 3. **Production Potential**: The field had a production of 50 barrels per day before acquisition, which was doubled to 100 barrels per day through minor repairs. EON aims to increase production to between 250 to 400 barrels per day within a quarter [9][11][19][66]. 4. **Field Characteristics**: The South Justice Field consists of approximately 5,400 acres with 208 producing and injection wells. The field has a history of low decline rates and significant oil reserves, with an estimated 15 million barrels recoverable through reactivation and drilling [13][14][18][26]. 5. **Comparison with Existing Assets**: The acquisition increases EON's oil in place by 20% and acreage in the Permian by 33%, enhancing overall production by 10% immediately and 20% in the near term [27][26]. 6. **Operational Strategy**: EON plans to reactivate idle wells and utilize existing infrastructure to minimize costs. The company expects minimal impact on general and administrative expenses [8][24][27]. 7. **Market Valuation**: The purchase price is considered reasonable compared to market values for similar fields, with estimates of $20,000 to $50,000 per flowing barrel for more developed fields [20][21]. 8. **Future Drilling Potential**: EON sees potential for horizontal drilling in the South Justice Field, similar to their existing Grayburg Jackson Field, which could further enhance production [14][26]. 9. **Economic Outlook**: The company anticipates needing oil prices around $60 per barrel to be attractive for drilling, with a potential range of $60 to $80 in the future [64][66]. 10. **Funding and Financial Health**: EON is optimistic about securing funding to support operations and retire existing debts, with ongoing discussions with multiple investors [49][52][66]. Other Important Content 1. **Regulatory Compliance**: The acquisition included assurances regarding compliance with state regulations for plugging and abandonment of non-productive wells [85]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The call highlighted the impact of external factors, such as geopolitical events and U.S. oil policy, on oil prices and drilling activity [60][66]. 3. **Investor Sentiment**: There is a noted concern among investors regarding stock performance, with management emphasizing the long-term value of the acquisition and operational strategy [50][66]. 4. **Chevron Relationship**: EON has a strong relationship with Chevron, which is beneficial for pricing and sales of oil produced from the South Justice Field [96][102]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of EON Resources Inc.'s strategic acquisition and operational plans in the oil and gas sector.

油价触及盘中高点，此前报道称伊朗铀库存完好无损。 ...

金十数据6月26日讯，花旗集团分析师在一篇评论中指出，下半年油价可能承压。分析师说："市场似乎 认为地缘政治风险已明显减弱，但未来的道路仍可能坎坷不平。"随着欧佩克+将于7月初召开会议决定 在8月份恢复多少石油产量，石油的基本面看跌背景，尤其是三季度之后，可能会重新成为投资者关注 的焦点。花旗重申其对布伦特油价的展望，三季度为66美元/桶， 四季度为63美元/桶。 花旗：油价下半年可能承压 ...

花旗重申对布伦特原油价格的预测，预计2025年第三季度平均价格为每桶66美元，第四季度为每桶63美 元。 布伦特原油 ...