Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 110,000, indicating a stable labor market overall [1][2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, with long-term unemployment rising by 190,000 to 1.6 million, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed population, highlighting challenges for certain labor groups [2] - Job growth was primarily driven by state government and healthcare sectors, with state and local government jobs adding 73,000 positions, while the federal government cut 7,000 jobs in June [1][2] Group 2 - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July have significantly decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 18.6% to 4.7% following the strong employment data [2] - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts remains uncertain, with a potential shift towards a more cautious approach in hiring observed in the private sector [2][3] - The focus may shift to U.S. inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released on July 15, as the labor market remains stable [3]

观研 SHINE T | 美国非农:超预期背后仍有隐忧 | ન્ | 王宇晴(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | 2025年6月美国非农数据点评 | 登记编号 | S0880525040119 | | 本报告导读: | CR | 梁中华(分析师) | | 6月美国新增非农就业超预期回升,失业率回落,市场降息预期有所降温。不过,私 | S | 021-38676666 | | 人部门新增就业的走弱、劳动参与率的回落、工作时长和工资环比增速的放缓反映 | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | 本报告导读: 6月美国新增非农就业超预期回升,失业率回落,市场降息预期有所降温。不过,私 人部门新增就业的走弱、劳动参与率的回落、工作时长和工资环比增速的放缓反映 出就业市场仍处于放缓趋势。我们认为,当前美国就业市场尚未明显失速,关税对 通胀的影响仍有待观察,美联储短期内难以降息。 投资要点: O 非农数据:哪些好消息?亮点一:6月新增非农就业超预期回升。6 月美国新增非农就业为14.7万人,较5月(14.4万)有所增加。连 续三个月平均新增非农就业人 ...

Employment Data - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 106,000 and a revised previous value of 144,000[5] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%[5] - The private sector employment growth was below expectations, while government employment saw a significant increase of 66,000 jobs, primarily in state education positions[6] Wage Growth and Inflation - The month-over-month wage growth for the private sector decreased to 0.2%, below expectations, with a year-over-year growth of 3.7%[6] - Wage growth in the goods-producing sector fell to 0.1%, while the service sector also saw a decline in wage growth, indicating a cooling of core service inflation pressures[6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The resilience in employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve has ample room to maintain its current policy stance, with a high probability of no rate change in July[6] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, with the probability of no rate cut in July rising from 76.2% to 95.3% following the employment data release[6] - The upcoming expiration of the "equivalent tariffs" pause and its economic impact will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions[6] Risks - There is a potential risk of inflation exceeding expectations, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process[29]

Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 106,000[3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%[3] - The average increase in non-farm jobs over the past three months is 150,000[3] Sector Analysis - Private sector job growth was 74,000, below the expected 100,000[3] - State and local government sectors added 80,000 jobs, with healthcare contributing 59,000 and leisure and hospitality adding 20,000, accounting for 96% of total job growth[3] - Manufacturing, wholesale trade, and federal government sectors each lost 7,000 jobs, indicating weaknesses in these areas[4] Unemployment Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) decreased from 4.24% to 4.12%, with the permanent unemployment rate dropping from 1.12% to 1.11%[4] - Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million[4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4%[7] - Job leavers contributed 0.07 percentage points to the unemployment rate, while other factors negatively impacted it[6] - The employment diffusion index fell below 50 for the second time since August 2024, indicating a slowdown in job growth[6] Wage Growth Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 3.8%[7] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-over-year increase of 4.5%, down from 4.9% but still above the average of 4.8% for 2024[8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in July is high, with a 63.8% probability of a rate cut in September[8] - Strong employment data and policy stimulus have alleviated concerns about economic downturns, supporting risk assets[8]

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.04 | 美国非农：超预期背后仍有隐忧 | [Table_Authors] | 王宇晴(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | 2025 年 6 月美国非农数据点评 | 登记编号 | S0880525040119 | | 本报告导读： | | 梁中华(分析师) | | 6 月美国新增非农就业超预期回升，失业率回落，市场降息预期有所降温。不过，私 | | 021-38676666 | | 人部门新增就业的走弱、劳动参与率的回落、工作时长和工资环比增速的放缓反映 | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | | 出就业市场仍处于放缓趋势。我们认为，当前美国就业市场尚未明显失速，关税对 | | | | 通胀的影响仍有待观察，美联储短期内难以降息。 | | | 投资要点： 风险提示：就业市场非线性恶化 题 证 券 [Table_Summary] 非农数据：哪些好消息？亮点一：6 月新增非农就业超预期回升。6 月美国新增非农就业为 14.7 万人，较 5 月（14.4 万）有所增加。连 续三个月平均新 ...

当地时间7月3日公布的美国6月新增非农就业和失业率均超预期强劲，显示美国劳动力市场仍有韧性， 但前一日公布的有"小非农"之称的美国ADP就业人数则"爆冷转负"减少3.3万人，录得2023年3月以来的 最大降幅，使得市场对美联储降息预期再度出现摇摆。 对于两份天差地别的美国就业报告，接受新华财经采访的分析师多数认为，美国就业市场结构正逐步恶 化，政府部门占新增非农就业人数一半，私人部门就业人数较上个月减少了6.3万，劳动力市场整体趋 弱。但6月非农就业数据可以让美联储进一步观察夏季关税对通胀的影响，预计美联储将在9月的议息会 议上再度降息。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园认为，两者巨大的差异背后主要有两方面原因，一是，ADP就业调查只能覆 盖约17%的就业岗位，且样本中有79%是大中型企业；而非农就业调查可以覆盖80%左右的就业岗位。 二是，关税对大中型企业的影响更大，对小企业的影响要小很多，原因在于小企业通常很少参与国际贸 易。实际上，ADP与非农就业的背离幅度从3月之后开始加深，这也与关税升级的时间相一致。 美联储降息预期反复摇摆 近期美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼均表示支持7月降息后，市场对美联储降息时点提前至7月的押注 ...

2025.07. 04 本文字数：1134，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 一财资讯 ①华泰证券：6月非农再超预期，7月降息概率回落 华泰证券表示，6月新增非农数据再超预期，美联储7月降息概率进一步下降，但考虑到关税、移民放缓 对三季度新增就业的拖累，维持联储9月-12月两次预防式降息的判断。6月新增非农超预期、失业率超预 期下行或受到多个因素干扰，未改变就业市场放缓的趋势：6月天气偏热叠加罢工拖累消退，对新增非农 提振约在3-4万人左右；5-6月美国劳动力规模下降75.5万人、劳动参与率合计下行0.3pp，背后或是由 于驱逐移民"压低"就业均衡增长率（即失业率不会上行的新增就业水平）。往前看，伴随移民放缓等对美 国经济特别是需求端滞后影响进一步显现，加之前瞻指标NFIB企业招聘意愿显示6月后新增非农走弱风险 上升，三季度就业或有所走弱，故维持联储9月-12月两次预防式降息的判断。 ②中信证券：预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息 中信证券研报表示，2025年6月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，失业率低于预期。不过，本份非农报告实 则显示美国就业市场继续走弱。依旧认为美国就业市场"缓冲垫"有限，就业市场继续走弱失 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increase in non-farm employment in June is primarily supported by government jobs, while private sector employment shows significant weakness [1][2][15] Employment Data - In June, non-farm employment rose to 147,000, with government contributing half of the new jobs, mainly in state and local education, while private sector jobs fell sharply to 74,000 from 137,000 in May [1][2][4] - The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, indicating more individuals are exiting the labor market [6][15] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings growth slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, marking a continued decline since November 2024 [8][11] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was seen in business services and finance at 5.3% and 4.3%, while manufacturing and retail experienced the largest declines in wage growth [11][13] Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings rose to 7.76 million in May, with a vacancy rate of 4.6%, indicating a balance between labor supply and demand [10] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with a decrease in private sector job creation and an increase in the number of people leaving the workforce [15] Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July rate cut dropping from 20.7% to 4.7% [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The US labor market is gradually changing with the continuation of the Fed's high - interest - rate policy. The labor market shows characteristics of two - way weakening in supply and demand, and the slowdown in wage growth provides more flexibility for policies [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recruitment and Vacancies - As of June 2025, the monthly average of recruitment plans dropped slightly to 31.91 million, a decrease of nearly 5,500 from the May average, compared to 127,000 in 2021 and 104,000 in 2019 [3]. - As of June 2025, the revised non - government job vacancies rose to 6.936 million, but continued to slow down compared to the peak of over 10 million in 2022, with the manufacturing gap dropping to 414,000 [3]. Non - farm Employment - As of June 2025, the total new non - farm employment increased by 147,000, including 73,000 in the government and 74,000 in enterprises [3]. - In terms of industry structure, education and healthcare and hotels added 51,000 and 20,000 respectively, and the information service industry added 3,000 in June. The increments in different industries decreased to varying degrees compared to May [3]. - The unemployment rate in June dropped by 0.1 percentage point [3]. Wage Growth - As of June 2025, the average weekly wage growth rate of non - farm employment was revised down to 3.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the pre - revision in May, maintaining the downward trend since the low of 4.1% in April this year [4]. - In June, the wage growth rate of the commodity production sector was + 3.1%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, and that of the service production sector was + 3.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points [4]. - The current US labor market shows characteristics of two - way weakening in supply and demand. Recruitment demand continues to slow down, and labor supply growth is limited [4].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates again in the September meeting due to ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market [1] Employment Market Analysis - The non-farm payroll report for June indicates that the U.S. job market continues to weaken, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%, which is lower than expected [1] - Despite the lower unemployment rate, CITIC Securities believes that the labor market has limited "buffer" capacity, suggesting that the unemployment rate may rise more quickly in the future [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The current unemployment rate provides Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell with more reasons to observe the impact of summer tariffs on inflation [1] - The expectation is maintained that the Federal Reserve will implement another rate cut in the upcoming September meeting [1]