欧洲央行执委奇波洛内：近期贸易政策不确定性的增加可能在第一年内使欧元区企业投资减少1.1%， 并在2025-2026年期间使实际GDP增长率下降约0.2个百分点。 ...

欧洲央行首席经济学家Lane：自夏季以来，贸易政策的不确定性一直备受关注。 有理由对经济保持长期乐观。 由于欧元和能源的存在，抗通胀的力量在那里。 欧洲经济正在增长，展现出韧性。 尽管存在贸易负面因素，经济应会保持增长。 美国是我们的贸易伙伴，但不是唯一的贸易伙伴。 ...

欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩：自夏季以来，贸易政策不确定性一直引起关注。 ...

百事下调全年利润展望 因贸易政策不确定性及消费者情绪恶化 金十数据4月24日讯，百事(PEP.O)下调了全年利润展望，在不可预测的美国贸易政策和日益恶化的消费 者情绪的影响下，公司零食和软饮料的需求正在摇摆不定。百事的消费品种类繁多，因此可以一窥特朗 普执政初期的消费者状况。百事目前预计今年的固定汇率每股收益将与去年持平，而此前的预期为中个 位数增长。公司首席执行官Ramon Laguarta说："未来预计将出现更多的波动和不确定性，尤其是与全 球贸易发展相关的波动和不确定性。" ...

Global Economic Outlook - The IMF emphasizes that global economic growth is cooling, with domestic imbalances and policy differences among countries leading to global imbalances and potential vulnerabilities in the economic outlook [1][4][10] - The IMF's reference forecast predicts global economic growth to decline from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025, before recovering to 3% in 2026, which is lower than previous forecasts [1][2][3] Economic Growth Projections - Advanced economies are expected to see a decrease in growth from 1.8% in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, with significant downgrades for the US, Canada, the UK, and Japan [5][6] - The US economic growth forecast for 2025 is lowered to 1.8%, down 1 percentage point from 2024 and 0.9 percentage points from the January WEO [5] - Emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow at 3.7% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026, down from 4.3% in 2024 [6] Inflation Outlook - The IMF forecasts global inflation to decrease to 4.3% in 2025 and further to 3.6% in 2026, with developed economies expected to return to target levels sooner than emerging markets [8][9] - The inflation forecast for the US and the UK has been notably increased, reflecting persistent price dynamics in the service sector and recent tariff measures [8][9] Trade and Policy Impacts - The IMF highlights that trade policy uncertainty is expected to persist, affecting growth projections across various scenarios [1][3] - The impact of tariffs on growth varies by country, depending on trade relationships and industry composition, with some economies like China and the Eurozone potentially mitigating negative effects through fiscal support [7][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The RMB is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger short - term trend, with the key factors for the future being the trend of the US dollar and changes in policy attitudes [2]. - The US dollar index continues to be weak, and the US dollar is under short - term pressure due to concerns about Powell's tenure stability and a decline in economic growth expectations [3]. - The euro is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger mid - to short - term trend, but it still faces downward risks if the interest rate differential logic dominates again and the US dollar rebounds [4]. - The Japanese yen is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the divergence in US - Japan policies and trade negotiation expectations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis US Dollar vs RMB - The RMB is relatively stable. The USD/CNY has fallen to around 7.30. China's Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% and exports in Q1 increased by 6.9% year - on - year, with a 12% growth in March, providing fundamental support. The RMB is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger short - term trend [2]. US Dollar Index - The US dollar index is weak. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts within the year continues to rise, with derivatives pricing factoring in a cumulative reduction of 86.8 basis points. The US economy shows a weak recovery in the real economy, and the US dollar is under short - term pressure [3]. Other Currencies - **Euro**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The euro is relatively strong in the short term due to the decline in confidence in the US dollar, but it may face downward risks if the US dollar rebounds [4]. - **Japanese Yen**: The Japanese yen is strong. The narrowing of the US - Japan interest rate differential is the core factor driving the appreciation of the yen. The market's expectation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan within the year is postponed but the direction remains unchanged [5]. Strategy - **US Dollar vs RMB**: In the short term, the exchange rate deviates from fundamentals and the RMB is relatively strong. In the medium term, it has a basis for stable oscillation [6]. - **Japanese Yen**: The US - Japan interest rate differential continues to narrow, and the USD/JPY is in a weakening trend [6]. - **Euro**: The euro is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger mid - to short - term trend [6].

金丰来认为，尽管市场在短期内可能会出现波动，但从长期来看，投资者应关注防御性板块和避险资产。黄金作为一种避险资产，其价格 在近期创下新高，显示出市场对避险需求的增加。此外，金丰来建议投资者关注那些受贸易政策影响较小的行业，如公用事业和医疗保健 等防御性板块。 金丰来总结认为，当前市场的不确定性主要来源于贸易政策和美联储的政策调整。投资者在当前环境下应保持谨慎，关注市场动态，合理 调整投资组合，以应对可能出现的市场波动。 金丰来认为，贸易政策的不确定性对市场产生了显著影响。特别是关税政策的调整，使得市场参与者对经济增长前景感到担忧。这种不确 定性不仅影响了股票市场，还导致美元汇率波动，投资者纷纷寻求避险资产。例如，近期亚洲股市在美联储主席鲍威尔警告经济增长放缓 和通胀上升风险后出现波动。市场对美国贸易政策的不确定性保持高度关注，这使得投资者在决策时更加谨慎。 金丰来进一步分析，美联储的政策调整也对市场产生了重要影响。鲍威尔表示，美联储将等待更多经济数据来决定是否调整利率。这种谨 慎态度反映了美联储在应对潜在经济疲软和通胀压力之间的平衡难题。市场分析人士认为，美联储目前处于两难境地，因为关税政策可能 导致通胀上升 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 was $1.58, up 26% year-over-year on a reported basis and up 22% excluding notable items [10] - Total revenue reached $4.8 billion, reflecting a 6% increase year-over-year, with expenses controlled at a 2% increase [11][25] - Pre-tax margin improved to 32% and return on tangible common equity rose to 24% [12][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Security services reported total revenue of $2.3 billion, up 8% year-over-year, with investment services fees increasing by 4% [34] - Market and wealth services segment revenue was $1.7 billion, up 11% year-over-year, with net new assets of $11 billion in the quarter [37] - Investment and wealth management segment revenue decreased to $779 million, down 8% year-over-year, with a pre-tax income drop of 41% [39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Firm-wide assets under custody and administration (AUCA) reached $53.1 trillion, up 9% year-over-year [26] - Assets under management (AUM) remained flat at $2 trillion year-over-year, with $18 billion in net outflows [41] - Foreign exchange revenue increased by 3% year-over-year, driven by higher spreads due to increased volatility [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on transforming into a more platforms-oriented organization, enhancing client experience and operational agility [13][23] - The first quarter marked the anniversary of the transition to the new operating model, with over half of the company now working under this model [14] - The company is actively pursuing innovation in areas such as AI, with over 40 AI solutions deployed and a partnership with OpenAI [20][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a significant reversal in market sentiment due to trade and fiscal policy uncertainties, leading to elevated risks in the near and medium term [7][9] - Despite the uncertain environment, the company is well-positioned with a strong balance sheet and operational resilience [10][23] - The outlook for the operating environment remains uncertain, with management prepared for various macroeconomic scenarios [23][43] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $1.1 billion of capital to shareholders, representing a 95% total payout ratio year-to-date [31] - The Tier 1 leverage ratio for the quarter was 6.2%, with a CET1 ratio of 11.5% [30][31] - The company is maintaining a conservative approach to capital management, considering macroeconomic factors [45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on deposit stability and NII generation - Management indicated that Q1 deposit levels were in line with expectations, with a slight increase in deposits due to market volatility, but not as significant as in previous crises [50][52] Question: Strategic opportunities for M&A - Management is open to exploring inorganic growth opportunities that align with their strategic priorities, emphasizing the importance of cultural fit and financial returns [64][66] Question: Impact of macro environment on client activity - Management noted that while clients are cautious, the breadth of their platforms provides a competitive advantage, allowing them to capture opportunities even in turbulent times [120][124] Question: Treasury market functioning and Fed intervention - Management reported that the treasury market is functioning well, with high volumes, although liquidity has reduced, leading to wider bid-offer spreads [98][101] Question: Digital assets and stablecoin legislation - Management views digital assets as a long-term play, with stablecoin legislation seen as a positive development for future growth, although not expected to significantly impact near-term revenues [105][111]

Group 1 - Tencent announced that its mobile game "Xianjian Qixia Chuan Online" will cease operations on June 2, after nearly 8 years since its public launch on April 26, 2017 [1] - The game stopped recharge and registration functions on March 31, and users who purchased products before that date can claim compensation during the event period [1] - This decision may affect investors' perception of Tencent's gaming business sustainability, although compensation measures could alleviate concerns about user attrition [1] Group 2 - Asobo Studio released a "Sim Update 2" for "Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024," introducing a "gaze point rendering" feature that reduces GPU load and improves frame rates by focusing rendering on the user's gaze [2] - The update enhances the VR experience and indicates the company's commitment to technological innovation, potentially boosting market confidence in its growth prospects [2] - This development positively impacts the gaming software and VR device sectors, contributing to a favorable sentiment towards technological advancements in the industry [2] Group 3 - Nintendo announced a delay in the pre-order of Switch 2 in the U.S. due to the assessment of potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies and changing market conditions [3] - The release date for Switch 2 remains unchanged at June 5, with the multilingual version priced at 69,980 yen (approximately 3,462 RMB) [3] - This cautious approach may raise market concerns regarding Nintendo's supply chain and cost structure, potentially affecting the video game hardware sector and investor expectations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent U.S. tariff policies on the bond market, highlighting increased uncertainty and its effects on investment decisions and bond yields [3][7][10]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy and Market Impact - On March 4, the U.S. announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which were quickly reversed for most goods two days later, leading to heightened uncertainty in trade policy [3]. - A new Bloomberg Economic Research Index, the Daily Trade Policy Uncertainty Index (TPU), was developed to track this uncertainty, which surged to levels not seen during the peak of trade tensions in Trump's first term [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to suppress investment and affect economic output, contributing to a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [7]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury Yields - From November 2023 to early March 2024, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell by 16 basis points, with approximately 7 basis points attributed directly to tariff uncertainty [7]. - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain interest rates during its March meeting, with core PCE inflation rising to an annualized rate of 4.5% and income growth accelerating by 0.8% month-on-month, reducing the urgency for rate cuts [7]. Group 3: Chinese Bond Market Trends - In March, the yield on China's 10-year government bonds rose to 1.93%, the highest since December of the previous year, before retreating to 1.8% later in the month [10]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to 4.36% due to better-than-expected non-farm payroll data and inflation concerns, impacting related sectors in the A-share market [10]. Group 4: Dim Sum Bond Market - The Dim Sum bond market has expanded significantly, with outstanding issuance surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan as of March 2025, and 2024 issuance reaching 896 billion yuan, a 120% increase from 2023 [11]. - High-rated bonds now account for 75% of the market, with issuers from the renewable energy and digital economy sectors emerging, such as BYD and SenseTime [11]. - The Bloomberg Offshore RMB Index has seen its market value more than double since the end of 2021, currently standing at 467 billion yuan [11]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities in Dim Sum Bonds - The yield spread between Chinese and U.S. 10-year government bonds has narrowed to -237 basis points, reducing the incentive to chase dollar-denominated assets and alleviating depreciation pressure on the yuan [13]. - The credit spread of Dim Sum bonds is 78 basis points higher than that of domestic high-liquidity credit bonds, with a low default rate of 0.15% [13].