Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market is experiencing significant volatility, with a rotation between technology and value stocks. Interest rate-sensitive stocks are rebounding due to expectations of rate cuts, while concerns about economic slowdown impacting corporate earnings are rising [3] - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index is currently at a historically high level, reflecting market expectations for policy easing [3] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - International gold prices are showing two-way volatility, indicating market divergence in interpreting Federal Reserve policies. Traditionally, gold prices have an inverse relationship with real interest rates, but both have recently risen simultaneously, suggesting a new pricing logic for gold amid geopolitical tensions and a reshaping of the dollar system [4] - Global official gold reserves are continuously increasing, which may provide long-term support for gold prices due to structural changes in demand [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market Behavior - The cryptocurrency market is exhibiting differentiated performance compared to U.S. stocks and gold. Bitcoin prices have stabilized after significant fluctuations, indicating the development of an independent price discovery mechanism in the crypto market [5] - The actual usage of decentralized finance applications is steadily increasing, potentially providing fundamental support for digital asset prices [5] Group 4: Market Uncertainties and Asset Allocation - The primary uncertainty in the market revolves around the timing and magnitude of the policy shift by the Federal Reserve. While inflationary pressures have eased, a strong labor market may limit the Fed's policy options [6] - Different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to policy changes, with U.S. stocks being most responsive to interest rate expectations, gold reflecting safe-haven attributes, and cryptocurrencies developing unique market logic [6] - The current market environment may lead to increased volatility, necessitating a balance between short-term trading opportunities and long-term asset allocation strategies [6]

Core Insights - EBC Financial Group has launched over 100 new US-listed ETF CFDs, enhancing its multi-asset product suite and providing global clients with diversified thematic trading opportunities [1][2] - The new products include ETFs listed on NYSE and NASDAQ, issued by leading asset management firms such as Vanguard, iShares (BlackRock), and State Street Global Advisors, covering a wide range of global macro themes and industry narratives [1][2] - The expansion reflects a growing industry interest in tools that can mirror asset allocation trends without the need to directly own the underlying securities [2][3] Product Features - The newly added ETF CFDs offer various market exposures, including geographic configurations like iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, fixed-income strategies such as iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund, and industry or commodity-based indices like United States Oil Fund LP and Vanguard Health Care ETF [2][3] - These products can serve as independent trading directions or as complementary tools to EBC's existing product lineup, aiding in the creation of sophisticated portfolios and thematic trading [3][4] Advantages of New Offerings - Compared to direct ETF investments, these CFDs provide key advantages such as simplified cost structures without traditional fund management fees or broker commissions, allowing traders to deploy long and short positions flexibly [4] - The use of leverage enhances capital efficiency and return potential, enabling traders to quickly adapt to changing market dynamics [4] Company Background - EBC Financial Group, established in London's financial district, is known for its expertise in financial brokerage and asset management, operating regulated entities in major financial jurisdictions [6][7] - The company has a strong commitment to ethical standards and is regulated by various authorities, including the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) [7]

其实绝大多数人对形势的判断都错了。 从加征关税、技术围堵、制裁企业，到不断叫嚣 "脱钩"。 大家都以为是懂王带着美国想要和我们断绝关系。 但最近一件事，揭开了真相。 今年 3 月，东大 大幅抛售了 189 亿美元美国国债，持有规模降至 7654 亿美元。 这是东大自 2000 年跻身美债前两大持有国之后， 25 年来首次退居全球第三，被英国反超。 减持美债，其实是一个很关键的信号，它意味着此刻 —— 不是美国在和东大脱钩，而是东大，正在悄悄与美国脱钩。 曾经，我们一直是老美最坚定的 "债主"。 时间回到2008年，金融危机席卷 全球，华尔街风雨飘摇，但当时我们选择坚定地支持美国国债—— 持仓规模一度突破1.3万亿美元，规模首次超过日本，跃居全球第一，撑起了美元信用。 但风向，从2015年开始变了。 随着两个大国之间冲突的出现，我们的战略判断在悄悄发生转向： 对美元体系的信任，不再是无条件的； 对外汇储备的构成，也不再是一成不变。 于是，美债持有比例从高点回落，中国开始温和但持续地减持美债。 持有比例从2015年震荡下行，2022年4月跌破1万亿，2024年跌破8000亿。 3月份，海外资金买入美国国债的单月净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing offensive and defensive assets in investment portfolios, particularly during uncertain market conditions. Defensive assets serve as a protective measure, helping to preserve capital and provide stability amidst market volatility [2][27]. Group 1: Understanding Defensive Assets - Defensive assets are categorized into risk assets, which are subject to significant price fluctuations, and safe-haven assets, which maintain their intrinsic value during market turmoil [4]. - The two primary functions of defensive assets are to reduce portfolio volatility and to provide high credit quality and liquidity, ensuring stable cash flow during market downturns [4]. Group 2: Types of Defensive Assets - **Cash and Cash Equivalents**: Highly liquid and safe, including money market funds that can be accessed at any time without fees [6][9]. - **Bond Assets**: Offer fixed income and typically have an inverse relationship with risk assets, with government bonds providing stronger defensive characteristics [10][11]. - **Dividend Assets**: Provide regular cash flow through dividends, performing well in bear markets and benefiting from valuation recovery in bull markets [12][13]. - **Gold**: Recognized as a safe-haven asset during crises, it retains value and is less affected by inflation compared to fiat currencies [14][15]. - **Commodities**: Serve as a hedge against inflation and supply disruptions, with stable demand across various sectors [16][17]. Group 3: Performance of Defensive Assets in Different Scenarios - **Economic Deflation**: Bond assets perform best due to liquidity and declining interest rates, while commodities lag [21][22]. - **Stagflation**: Commodities excel as inflation rises, while bonds struggle due to tightening monetary policy [23][24]. - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Gold prices tend to rise significantly during prolonged conflicts, outperforming other asset classes [25][26]. Group 4: Conclusion - In the current complex investment landscape, incorporating defensive assets into portfolios is essential. A diversified approach across different types of defensive assets can enhance overall portfolio resilience [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing offensive and defensive assets in investment portfolios, particularly during uncertain market conditions. Defensive assets serve as a "stabilizing force" to protect investors' wealth amidst market volatility [2][32]. Group 1: Understanding Defensive Assets - Defensive assets are categorized as those that maintain stable intrinsic value and exhibit lower price volatility during market fluctuations, contrasting with risk assets that are more sensitive to market changes [4]. - The two primary functions of defensive assets are to reduce portfolio volatility and provide high credit quality and liquidity, ensuring stable cash flow during market downturns [4]. Group 2: Types of Defensive Assets - **Cash and Cash Equivalents**: High safety and liquidity, including money market funds that can be accessed anytime without fees [6][8]. - **Bond Assets**: Fixed income with potential for interest and price appreciation, with government bonds offering more stability than corporate bonds [10][11]. - **Dividend Assets**: Provide regular cash flow through dividends, performing well in bear markets and benefiting from valuation recovery in bull markets [14][15]. - **Gold**: Recognized as a "safe haven" asset during crises, maintaining value better than fiat currencies [16][18]. - **Commodities**: Stable demand and serve as a hedge against inflation, with specific commodities like oil and metals being particularly relevant during supply disruptions [20][21]. Group 3: Performance of Defensive Assets in Different Scenarios - **Economic Deflation**: Bond assets perform best due to liquidity and declining interest rates, while commodities lag [24][26]. - **Stagflation**: Commodities excel as inflation rises, while bonds struggle due to tightening monetary policy [28]. - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Gold prices tend to rise significantly during conflicts, reflecting its status as a hard currency [30][31]. Group 4: Conclusion - In the current complex investment landscape, incorporating defensive assets into portfolios is essential. Diversifying across different types of defensive assets can enhance overall portfolio resilience [32].

一、大类资产回顾 1、股票月度回顾 5月全球风险偏好主要围绕关税谈判进展、美国信用评级下调、美债拍卖预冷等事件波动。全月来看，全球避险情绪缓解，多数权益市场上涨。A股方 面，万得全A先扬后抑，全月上涨2.39%；结构上延续4月"哑铃"格局，创业板、小微盘与大盘价值风格占优；超八成申万一级行业5月录得正收益，医 药、国防军工、银行表现居前，"新消费"和创新药板块领涨，但月末波动加大。恒生指数全月上涨5.29%，南向资金单月净买入约420亿元；AH溢价整体 维持震荡，相比于4月末的144.33小幅下降至141.53。 2、债券月度回顾 5月以来，受降准降息、关税反复、债券供给、机构行为等多空因素交织影响，利率先下后上、震荡分化，短端表现优于长端，曲线陡峭化；得益于"存款 搬家"带来的信用债配置需求，信用利差明显压缩。5月7日央行宣布降准降息，短端直接受益，长端利率先下后上。5月12日中美经贸谈判成果超预期，债 市快速调整，随后进入低波震荡状态。5月20日大行存款降息利好兑现，叠加税期资金面偏紧，债市情绪转弱，月末受美国联邦法院关税裁定反复影响， 利率先上后下，10年期国债最终收于1.67%，环比上行5BP。 3、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent survey data from JPMorgan indicates a notable shift in investor sentiment towards U.S. Treasury bonds, with a significant decrease in short positions and an increase in net long positions, reflecting a complex change in the U.S. Treasury market dynamics [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The short position percentage has decreased by 2 percentage points, indicating a reduction in bearish sentiment towards U.S. Treasury prices [3] - The net long position has reached its highest level since May 5, suggesting an overall optimistic sentiment towards U.S. Treasuries among market participants [4] Group 2: Economic Factors - Mixed economic data from the U.S., including resilient labor market conditions but fluctuating inflation and weak manufacturing activity, has led to increased uncertainty about economic growth, prompting investors to reduce short positions [3] - Expectations of potential adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy, including possible interest rate cuts, have enhanced the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries, as lower rates typically lead to higher bond prices [3] Group 3: Implications for Financial Markets - The increase in net long positions is likely to drive up Treasury prices and lower yields, which could lead to a shift of funds from the stock market to the bond market, affecting supply and demand dynamics in both markets [4] - The changes in the U.S. Treasury market sentiment may also reflect broader expectations regarding future economic conditions and policy directions, potentially influencing fiscal policy, corporate investment decisions, and consumer behavior [4]

Core Insights - Gold has officially surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset for global central banks, driven by a surge in gold purchases and rising prices [1] - In 2024, gold is projected to account for 20% of global official reserves, exceeding the euro's 16%, while the dollar remains dominant at 46% [1] - Central banks are increasing gold holdings at a record pace, with net purchases expected to exceed 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year in 2024, doubling the average levels of the 2010s [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank reports that the share of the dollar has decreased by 4 percentage points since 2020, while the euro's share has shrunk by 8 percentage points over the past five years [1] - Major buyers of gold include China, India, Turkey, and Poland, with China's central bank increasing its holdings by 289 tons, the highest since 2015 [1] - The global central bank gold reserves have rebounded to 3.6 million tons in 2024, nearing levels last seen in 1965, reflecting a strategic demand for non-sovereign credit assets [1] Group 2 - The shift in asset allocation is evident, with a significant increase in global gold ETF holdings in 2024, while developed country bonds face the largest sell-off since 2008 [2] - Investors are now viewing gold not just as an inflation hedge but as a core tool for geopolitical risk management, leading to a 25% year-on-year increase in gold ETF inflows in 2024, the highest in four years [2] - Gold prices surged by 30% in 2024, with further increases of 27% expected in the first half of 2025, reaching historical highs above $3,500 per ounce [2] Group 3 - Despite not generating interest and having high storage costs, gold's unique safe-haven properties make it the "ultimate currency" during crises [4] - The annual storage cost for gold held by global central banks is estimated at $8.7 billion, and the opportunity cost increases with rising interest rates [4] - The European Central Bank warns that gold's liquidity is only 1.2% of the global foreign exchange market, and an expansion of its reserve function could increase market volatility [4]

精彩观点抢先看： 点击链接，可阅读原文。 十年期国债是目前市场中交易量最大的单一债券品种，规模与流动性占据绝对主导。债券市场中十年国 债的配置价值不仅体现在久期相对较长、有较为可观的收益率、弹性相对较大，更重要的是它是债券市 场基准。买十年国债就像股市里买沪深300一样，大家可以通过买十年期国债获得整个市场的行情。配 置十年国债，就相当于我们把资产配置的组合和市场基准牢牢绑定了。 每经编辑｜赵云 十年国债ETF投资的样本空间是剩余期限7到10年的国债。持仓透明、费率低，且支持T+0交易。十年国 债ETF从2017年8月成立，之后的2018年到2024年每一个完整年度都取得了正收益。 直播时间：2025-6-6 10:00~11:00 通常而言，当经济预期相对不是特别强劲、通胀比较温和、货币相对而言比较宽松的时候债券市场表现 较好。比如历史表现来看，十年国债ETF在2018年、2021年、2023年、2024年分别取得了7.60%、 5.19%、4.37%、9.02%的收益。而在通胀比较高或者我们认为经济增长比较强劲的时候，债券可能会相 对偏逆风一些。但是尽管在这样的市场环境下十年国债ETF依然取得了不错的回报 ...

Core Insights - The public fund industry in China has surpassed a total scale of 33 trillion yuan, with over 700 million fund investors, yet many remain in a "self-service" investment state [1] - The approval of E Fund Management to establish a sales subsidiary focused on buy-side advisory services reflects a strategic shift in the wealth management industry from "scale competition" to "service deepening" [1][2] - The fund advisory business, which provides investment advice and decision-making assistance to clients, has shown remarkable growth since its pilot launch in 2019, but faces challenges such as low penetration rates and limited service scope [1][2] Industry Development - The fund advisory business is poised for significant growth opportunities, driven by the need for professional services that align with investor demands, creating a virtuous cycle of "increased returns - inflow of funds - market stability" [2] - Continuous policy support, such as the implementation of guidelines for the regularization of public fund advisory services, is crucial for the development of this sector [1][2] Key Strategies for Wealth Management Institutions - Wealth management institutions should prioritize investor interests and focus on three dimensions: building a professional advisory capability system, creating comprehensive investor support services, and developing a high-quality advisory talent pool [2][3] - Establishing a multi-dimensional research framework is essential for wealth management institutions to provide tailored solutions for investors with varying risk preferences [2] Importance of Accompanying Services - Effective fund advisory services should extend beyond simple fund recommendations to include a full-process support system, helping investors manage expectations and anxiety during market fluctuations [3] - Regular investment health reports can help investors maintain composure and avoid impulsive trading behaviors [3] Talent Development and Technology Integration - A high-quality, large-scale advisory team is vital for the success of fund advisory services, requiring professionals who understand both market dynamics and client needs [3] - The integration of intelligent advisory tools can enhance service reach while maintaining professional depth, creating a "human-machine collaboration" model [3] Vision for the Future - The transition of fund advisory services from pilot to regularization represents a critical turning point, necessitating a shift towards a service ecosystem centered on the best interests of investors [3] - This approach aims to foster a positive interaction between capital markets and household wealth, contributing to the financial empowerment of China's modernization efforts [3]