Group 1 - The current investment strategy for Chinese markets should focus on increasing the proportion of Chinese assets, as they are expected to be revalued with the receding of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [11][12] - In the Hong Kong market, defensive sectors with high dividends from state-owned enterprises should be prioritized, while also investing in technology growth sectors during dips [12] - In the A-share market, attention should be given to consumer sectors such as agriculture, food and beverage, and consumer electronics [13] Group 2 - The focus should be on hard technology sectors related to chips in the A-share market, while technology and new consumption sectors are favored in the Hong Kong market [14] - The emergence of DeepSeek has sparked interest in China's latecomer advantages in the AI industry, leading to increased foreign investment interest in the Chinese market [14] - The rating for Chinese technology stocks has been upgraded from "neutral" to "positive," reflecting expectations of 20%-30% profit growth [14][15] Group 3 - Structural opportunities exist in the AI industry chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors [15][16] - Domestic AI companies are showing advantages in large model development and industry applications, with some segments like optical modules and industrial robots seeing over 50% year-on-year profit growth [16] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is benefiting from policy incentives and international breakthroughs, with leading companies enhancing global competitiveness [16] Group 4 - The dominance of the US dollar is beginning to wane, influenced by tariffs, geopolitical factors, and fiscal deficits, leading to a potential long-term depreciation of the dollar [21][22] - Many economies, including Europe and China, are seeking to reduce reliance on the dollar, indicating a shift towards a more multipolar global currency system [23][24] - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 58%, with central banks increasing gold holdings to hedge against risks [25][27] Group 5 - The US Treasury market is experiencing changes that may lead to increased volatility in international financial markets, prompting investors to diversify their portfolios [30][31] - The long-term outlook for US Treasury yields is expected to rise due to concerns over fiscal deficits and inflation, with recommendations to focus on high-rated short-term bonds [31][32] - Despite the lack of clear alternatives to US Treasuries, the market is cautious about long-term US debt due to potential uncertainties surrounding the debt ceiling [32][33]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has evolved from initial trust to public conflict, highlighting the tension between political influence and central bank independence [1][5]. Group 1: Initial Expectations - Trump initially appointed Powell with high hopes for a more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and achieve his vision of "Make America Great Again" [1]. - Powell was seen as a key figure capable of maintaining good communication with the White House and promoting economic prosperity during their initial "honeymoon" period [1]. Group 2: Rising Tensions - The honeymoon phase ended as the U.S. economy recovered, leading the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates multiple times in 2018 to combat inflation, which triggered Trump's dissatisfaction [2]. - Trump publicly criticized the Fed's rate hikes, labeling them as "crazy" and claiming they were harming the U.S. economy [2][3]. Group 3: Continued Conflict - Trump's discontent with the Fed's policies led him to break the long-standing tradition of the White House refraining from commenting on monetary policy, raising concerns about the erosion of the Fed's independence [3]. - During a recent meeting, Trump pressured Powell to lower interest rates, arguing that current rates put the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage against countries like China [4]. Group 4: Fed's Response and Independence - Powell reiterated the Fed's commitment to independence, stating that monetary policy decisions would be based on economic data rather than political pressure [5]. - Following the meeting, the Fed emphasized its independence and data-driven decision-making principles to maintain its credibility as an independent central bank [5]. - U.S. law protects the Fed's independence, preventing the President from arbitrarily dismissing the Fed Chair, a principle reinforced by a 2025 Supreme Court ruling [5]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The evolving relationship between Trump and Powell illustrates the inherent tension between political power and central bank independence, significantly impacting U.S. economic policy [5]. - The situation raises important discussions about central bank independence, providing valuable insights for global central banks [6].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates, expressing dissatisfaction with the current monetary policy, which he believes is detrimental to the U.S. economy's competitiveness [1][3][4]. Group 1: Meeting Details - Trump and Powell met at the White House on May 29, marking their first discussion since Trump resumed office [1]. - During the meeting, Trump reiterated his belief that the Fed's decision not to lower interest rates is a significant mistake [3]. - The discussion included topics such as economic growth, employment, and inflation, but Powell did not address future monetary policy directions [6]. Group 2: Economic Context - Trump has consistently criticized the Fed's current interest rate policy, arguing that it places the U.S. at a disadvantage in global competition, particularly against China [4]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% during its May 7 meeting, indicating a potential continuation of this rate in the coming months [6]. - The FOMC's May meeting minutes highlighted increased uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook due to tariffs and policy instability, with rising unemployment and inflation risks [6]. Group 3: Market Implications - Trump's ongoing pressure on Powell raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [8]. - The market's reliance on the Fed's independence is significant, as political interference could lead to instability in financial markets [8].

美联储表示，鲍威尔在会面中没有讨论对货币政策的预期，只是强调政策路径将完全取决于未来的经济 数据以及这些数据对经济前景的影响。鲍威尔强调，他本人及联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的同事将 根据法律规定，制定旨在支持最大就业和物价稳定的货币政策，并且 所有决策都将基于仔细、客观、 非政治化的分析。 白宫方面表示，特朗普在与鲍威尔自其就任总统以来的首次面对面会晤中，敦促鲍威尔降低利率。白宫 新闻秘书莱维特周四在简报会上表示， 特朗普对鲍威尔表示，他认为美联储主席未能降息是一个错误 的决策。 莱维特表示，这一决定让我们在经济上处于相对于其他国家的劣势，总统对此一直非常直言不讳，不论 是公开场合还是——现在我可以透露——私下场合也是如此。两人并未讨论特朗普是否会寻求罢免鲍威 尔的问题。 从美联储发布的通稿来看，面对特朗普降息的呼声，鲍威尔依然选择了坚守美联储的独立性。 美东时间周四，美股主要股指高开低走小幅收涨，截止收盘，道指涨0.28%，纳指涨0.39%，标普500指 数涨0.4%，大型科技股多数上涨，亚马逊、Meta、特斯拉涨幅不足1%，英伟达涨超3%，博通涨超 1%。半导体板块涨幅居前，美国像素涨超6%，微芯科技 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Daly, emphasizes that it is not the first time the U.S. government has requested adjustments to monetary policy, highlighting the Fed's accountability to the American public [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's independence is underscored, indicating that it operates with a focus on the broader economic implications rather than direct governmental influence [1] - Daly's statement reflects the ongoing dialogue between the government and the Federal Reserve regarding economic policy adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining stable inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized as a key factor in stabilizing inflation expectations [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The conference call discusses macroeconomic conditions, particularly focusing on the US-China trade deal and its implications for various economies including the US, China, Europe, and Latin America [2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Deal**: The recent trade deal signifies a substantial de-escalation in trade tensions, prompting revisions in macro and market forecasts. The US growth forecast for 2023 has been increased to 1.0% from 0.5% [2][10]. 2. **Unemployment Rate**: The year-end unemployment rate forecast for the US has been lowered to 4.5% from 4.7% [2][10]. 3. **Recession Odds**: The odds of a recession in the US over the next 12 months have been reduced to 35% from 45% due to improved financial conditions [2][10]. 4. **Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The expectation for the Federal Reserve to initiate a series of three rate cuts has been moved to December, with cuts anticipated at an every-other-meeting pace [2][10]. 5. **China's Export Growth**: The forecast for China's export volume growth in 2025 has been revised to 0% from -5%, indicating a more stable outlook [2][10]. 6. **GDP Growth Forecasts**: GDP growth forecasts for 2025/26 have been raised for China (4.6%/3.8%), Korea (1.1%), Taiwan (3.5%), and Vietnam (5.5%) [2][10]. 7. **European Economic Outlook**: The Euro area’s GDP forecasts for 2025/26 have been increased to 0.9%/1.1%, and core inflation forecasts for Q4 2025/26 have been raised to 2.1%/1.8% [2][10]. 8. **UK Economic Projections**: The UK’s GDP growth forecasts for 2025/26 have been lifted to 1.2%/1.1%, with expectations for the Bank of England to cut rates to 3% in February [2][10]. 9. **Latin America**: The outlook for Mexico has improved, with no expected technical recession this year [2][10]. Market Implications 1. **S&P 500 Index Targets**: The 3/6/12 month targets for the S&P 500 index have been raised to 5900/6100/6500 from 5700/5900/6200, with EPS forecasts increased to $262 and $280 for this year and next, respectively [2][10]. 2. **STOXX Europe 600 Index**: The targets for the STOXX Europe 600 index have been lifted to 550/560/570 from 470/490/520 [2][10]. 3. **MSCI China and CSI300 Index**: The 12-month targets for MSCI China and CSI300 indices have been revised to 84 and 4600, respectively [2][10]. Additional Considerations 1. **Federal Reserve Independence**: Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, particularly in light of political pressures, which could lead to inflationary pressures and affect the appeal of the US Dollar and Treasuries [10][11]. 2. **US Household Balance Sheets**: US household balance sheets are reported to be healthy, with stable delinquency rates, except for student loans. Investors are advised to focus on segments with stronger borrower profiles [11][12]. 3. **Lessons from the UK Gilt Crisis**: The UK Gilt crisis has resulted in a higher risk premium for UK assets, which may serve as a cautionary tale for the US market regarding the growth-inflation trade-off [12][10]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a cautiously optimistic outlook for global economies, particularly in light of the US-China trade deal, while also addressing potential risks related to Federal Reserve independence and household debt dynamics. The revisions in growth forecasts and market targets reflect a more favorable economic environment, albeit with caution advised for potential recessionary outcomes.

我写《美债又崩了》，有粉丝质疑，美联储不是美国的吗？为什么要拆自己的台？ 问这种问题的人，真的是天真的可爱。 你不妨往自己身边看看，好多人一家子两夫妻，处得跟仇人一样，为了财产或者别的，勉强凑一块，心 底里各种算计，恨不得把对方弄死的多了去了。你别问，一问户口本上一家人，真要是谁死了，剩下的 那个，就占大便宜了。 所以懂王跟美联储之间彼此不对付有那么难理解吗？ 这世界上什么都可以让，唯有利益是不能让的。 懂王独享欲非常强，当了两届总统，你啥时候见他有过什么亲密的政治盟友？谁跟他关系好，都只能是 用得上的那一阵子，但凡用不上了，即便像马老板这样，出钱出力把他送上总统宝座，那也是随时能欢 送出白宫的。 从懂王的第一任期开始，建制派们就已经想好了要联手限制总统的权力。 当然了，这也不是建制派们跟懂王有什么深仇大恨，纯粹是美国的政治传统。 我们以前经常听公知们说，要把权力关进笼子里。 后来我们慢慢发现，权力世袭真的很难，但财富世袭却是容易的。把权力关进笼子里限制起来，然后让 财富自由，这不就相当于让财富控制了权力，然后世袭罔替仙福永享了吗？ 以前总有人说，谁当美国总统都是一样的，就是让个动物当总统，美国照样运转。 这 ...

美联储的独立性正面临前所未有的挑战，这可能引发一系列资产价格调整，最终推高金价。 据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师在5月15日的报告中警告，在政治干预日益增加的背景下，美联储的独立性正面临前所未有的挑战。这可能为金价升至 3700美元/盎司甚至4500美元/盎司奠定基础。 美联储独立性风险逐步攀升 在特朗普政府时期，公开批评联储独立性成为常态。 高盛分析表示，虽然历史上总统触动美联储的言论和压力常有，但由于"不得无因解雇"（must not fire without cause）的先例，行政干预对货币政策的直接 影响一直有限。 目前特朗普及其盟友正通过司法途径挑战"不得无因解雇"保护，一旦法院裁定取消该条款，美联储"有限的独立性"将进一步动摇。 高盛认为，若法院裁定联储官员随意解雇违反宪法，最终可能使美联储制度类似于俄罗斯、沙特的央行模式，政治干预将变得普遍。这将对美元的稳定性 和信心产生长远不良影响，美元作为全球储备货币的地位或受威胁。最终导致利率易被操控，长端利率升高，美元走弱，引发金价上行。 美元受蚕食，黄金避险地位凸显 尽管美元在国际结算中的比重仍远高于其他货币，但拜登政府、欧洲及日本央行的政策转向，已有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is diminishing due to the temporary suspension of certain tariffs between the U.S. and China, but it is expected to retain its appeal amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy Risks - A significant risk facing the economy is the U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially in light of ongoing pressure from the Trump administration [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained a neutral policy stance this year, with no immediate plans to lower interest rates despite stable inflation risks [1] - If the independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, gold may perform well as it is seen as a counter to potentially manipulated fiat currencies [2] Group 2: Gold Price Predictions - Current gold trading prices are significantly below last month's historical high of $3,500 per ounce, but a new support level and record prices are anticipated [2] - The baseline price forecast for gold is projected at $3,610 per ounce by Q1 2026, with an optimistic scenario suggesting it could reach $4,000 per ounce [2] - The demand for gold is expected to remain high due to rising recession and inflation risks, with historical price increases indicating that a rise to $4,000 per ounce is plausible [2] Group 3: U.S. Credibility Issues - The U.S. faces significant credibility issues as a reliable trading partner, even if the global trade war is resolved [2] - The potential implementation of the "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" could lead to a 20% depreciation of the dollar, further increasing inflation beyond optimistic expectations [3] Group 4: Downside Risks and Strategic Asset Status - While there are some downside risks to gold prices, any declines are expected to be limited due to the current environment of uncertainty [4] - Gold is still viewed as a necessary strategic asset, providing a level of protection for investors amid various uncertainties [4]