Core Viewpoint - Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor of Allianz Group, publicly called for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign to ensure the independence of the central bank, marking him as the first prominent economist to make such a statement [1]. Group 1 - El-Erian stated that if Powell's goal is to maintain the operational autonomy of the Federal Reserve, he should resign, emphasizing the importance of this autonomy [1]. - He noted that Powell's term ends in May next year, and a successor will be announced by the end of this year, effectively making Powell a "lame duck" amid a politically charged environment that threatens the Fed's independence [1]. - El-Erian acknowledged that his view contrasts with the mainstream consensus on Wall Street, which generally prefers Powell to serve until the end of his term in May 2026 [1]. Group 2 - El-Erian pointed out that Powell's resignation is not the "optimal solution," but it may be a second-best choice given the increasing and diverse threats to the Fed's independence [1]. - He highlighted three major controversies during Powell's tenure: the misjudgment of "transitory inflation" in 2022 that delayed interest rate hikes, the severe scrutiny following the banking crisis in 2023, and the internal trading scandal that led to a stock trading ban for Fed officials (Powell was not implicated) [1]. - El-Erian remarked that in the corporate world, Powell would have likely been dismissed for his policy mistakes [1]. Group 3 - Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, criticized the Federal Reserve for experiencing "mission creep," indicating that it has ventured into areas beyond core monetary policy [2]. - Bessent emphasized the need for a thorough review of the entire Federal Reserve, coinciding with ongoing attacks from Trump and his advisory team against Powell, particularly since the Fed has maintained stable interest rates since December of last year [2]. - El-Erian stressed the urgency for reform within the Federal Reserve, warning that continued erosion of its independence could lead to a depreciation of the dollar, a steepening yield curve, and rising interest rates [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is committed to discussing the current state and future direction of the U.S. banking capital framework, emphasizing the importance of its independence in monetary policy [2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Statements - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the need for large banks to maintain adequate capital and manage risks while competing with non-bank financial companies and banks from other jurisdictions [6]. - Powell stated that the capital framework includes risk-based capital requirements, leverage ratio requirements, additional fees for the largest and most complex banks, and stress tests, which will be comprehensively discussed [8]. - Vice Chairman Michelle Bowman stressed the importance of the Fed's independence and the obligation to maintain transparency and accountability in monetary policy decisions [10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Market concerns about the Fed's independence were alleviated following Powell's statements, with U.S. stock indices showing mixed results; the Nasdaq initially dropped over 1% but later narrowed its losses to 0.44% [4]. - Chinese assets performed strongly, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 1.3% and the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF increasing by over 3% [4]. - Notable gains were observed in Chinese concept stocks, including a 16% rise in Daqo New Energy and over 9% in NIO [4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The swap market indicates that the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next week is nearly zero, with traders pricing in a total of 46 basis points of cuts for the remainder of the year [9]. - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in September is 41.4%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57.2% [9]. Group 4: Political Pressures - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called for an internal review of the Fed but expressed confidence in Powell's leadership, stating there is no reason for him to resign [3][11]. - Concerns were raised regarding potential political pressures on Powell, particularly related to the Fed's renovation budget overruns, with speculation about his possible dismissal by President Trump [15][16].

Group 1 - The core conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is intensifying, with Trump considering appointing a "shadow chairman" to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates [1][2] - Trump has publicly stated that the federal funds rate should be reduced by 300 basis points, indicating his strong stance on the need for rate cuts due to low inflation [1] - Rob Subbaraman from Nomura suggests that if inflation rises in the next three months, it will be difficult for Trump to challenge Powell, as a shadow chairman could still influence market perceptions regarding future rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Despite Trump's negative attitude towards the Fed, Subbaraman believes that the Fed's policies are difficult to influence due to its strong institutional framework and safeguards [2] - Any appointment made by Trump would require Senate approval, and monetary policy decisions are not solely determined by the Fed Chairman but involve the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with 19 members [2] - There are risks associated with a potential new chairman aligned with Trump's views after Powell's departure, which could undermine the Fed's independence and negatively impact the U.S. economy and markets [2]

在6月的参议院听证会上，鲍威尔驳斥了有关美联储总部装修"奢华"的媒体报道，并向议员保证美联储 官员是"对公共资源负责任的管理者"。 当地时间7月21日，据彭博社报道，佛罗里达州共和党众议员安娜·保利娜·卢纳（Anna Paulina Luna）正 式向美国司法部提交刑事指控动议，指控美联储主席鲍威尔在作证时两度撒谎。 佛罗里达州共和党众议员安娜·保利娜·卢纳 在7月19日致司法部长帕姆·邦迪(Pam Bondi)的信中，卢纳指控鲍威尔在6月25日参议院银行委员会听证 会上，两次就美联储华盛顿总部翻修项目的细节撒谎。该项目目前预计耗资达25亿美元，引发共和党方 面关于鲍威尔管理不善的争议。 这场法律行动正值特朗普的保守派盟友持续施压，要求鲍威尔在2026年任期届满前提前下台。卢纳在信 中写道："2025年6月25日，鲍威尔主席就美联储埃克尔斯大楼翻修工程向参议院银行、住房和城市事务 委员会作证时，作出了多项实质性虚假陈述。" 信中具体指控鲍威尔在两个方面提供不实证词：其一是关于埃克尔斯大楼内豪华设施的虚假陈述，其二 是蓄意歪曲大楼维护状况。 司法部并无义务对上述指控展开调查。美联储与司法部的发言人均未回应置评请 ...

注：埃里安是彭博专栏作者、剑桥大学皇后学院院长。 知名经济学家埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）：美联储主席鲍威尔应当（主动）辞职，从而捍卫美联储的 独立性。 ...

美联储独立性"告急"！鲍威尔在解雇压力下迎难而上。速来围观鲍威尔讲话... 同传直播 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The strength of precious metals is mainly due to renewed concerns about the Fed's independence and clear interest rate cut signals from Fed officials. Gold has long - term bullish factors, but short - term market risk - on sentiment suppresses its upward momentum. Silver is expected to continue its strength based on the bullish outlook for gold [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The monthly rate of the US Conference Board Leading Index in June was - 0.3%, with an expected - 0.2% and a previous value revised from - 0.10% to 0% [2]. - Fed Chair Powell faced criminal charges from Trump's allies in the House. Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna accused Powell of perjury, stating he made false statements during a Senate testimony in June 2025 regarding the Fed building renovation and downplayed the cost increase from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [2][3]. - Fed Governor Waller said waiting six more weeks to cut interest rates might be okay, but there's no reason to delay. He also mentioned that he would accept if the president nominated him as Fed Chair [2][3]. - Goolsbee said the latest CPI data showed that tariffs were pushing up commodity inflation, and he was "slightly worried." He expected a significant interest rate drop in the next year [2][6]. 3.2 Price Logic - On the evening of July 21, the gold price quickly rose to $3,400 per ounce, and silver rose 2%, approaching the $39 per ounce mark. The strength of precious metals is due to concerns about the Fed's independence and interest rate cut expectations [3]. - Regarding the Fed's independence, the criminal charges against Powell by Congresswoman Luna have raised concerns. Perjury can carry a maximum sentence of 5 years in prison [3]. - In terms of interest rate cut expectations, Waller's statement and Goolsbee's prediction of a significant rate drop in the next year have increased the market's interest rate cut expectations [3][6]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Currently, it is the third international public - good crisis since the Pax Britannica. In 2025, tariff, geopolitical, and monetary - system risks are similar to those in the last century. Gold, as a substitute for the existing monetary system, has long - term bullish factors, but short - term market sentiment restricts its upward movement. For silver, domestic anti - involution and infrastructure projects may boost its elasticity. Based on the bullish view of gold, silver is expected to remain strong [6]. - Pay attention to US real - estate data, Fed interest - rate expectations, and changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold price range to watch is [3250, 3450], and for COMEX silver, it is [36, 45] [6].

▲美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 图据视觉中国 近日一则重磅消息震惊美国政坛和金融界：佛罗里达州共和党众议员安娜·保利娜·卢娜正式对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔提出了刑事指控的请求。 这件事不仅让掌管美国货币政策的"大掌柜"陷入舆论漩涡，更是让其面临联邦重罪指控。据央视新闻报道，特朗普今年再度入主白宫以来，频繁施压美联储 降息，多次批评鲍威尔，并威胁解除他的美联储主席职务。鲍威尔则表示，特朗普作为总统没有解除其职务的合法权限，他将工作至任期结束。而此前，卢 娜曾公开呼吁解雇鲍威尔。 不过，特朗普于当地时间7月16日表示，他暂时没打算解雇鲍威尔。 鲍威尔否认翻修超标 市场反应平静 美议员称其"作伪证" 此次指控源于鲍威尔6月25日在美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会的听证会上的作证。当时议员们质疑美联储华盛顿总部大楼的翻修项目成本是否合 理，据称该项目最终支出高达25亿美元。 鲍威尔在回应中声称项目从未涉及如此巨额资金。佛罗里达州共和党众议员卢娜7月19日致信司法部长帕姆·邦迪的信件中指出，鲍威尔的证词出现"重大虚 假陈述"，按照美国联邦法律构成伪证罪，因此她正式将鲍威尔"转介"给司法部。 ▲卢娜 卢娜在信中强调，鲍威 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, suggests a comprehensive review of the Federal Reserve's operations, questioning its effectiveness in fulfilling its responsibilities [1] - Becerra's comments may be aimed at pressuring the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts, similar to the ongoing demands from Trump [1] - The potential changes in the Federal Reserve's operational logic could have a more lasting impact than merely dismissing the current chair [1] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of seven Federal Reserve governors and five regional bank presidents, with the chair and vice-chair elected annually [2] - Changing the structure of the Federal Reserve requires Congressional approval, which may be a lengthy process due to cautious attitudes among many Republicans [2] - Tim Duy from SGH Macro Advisors notes that to significantly alter the Federal Reserve's direction, the White House would need more FOMC seats to gain sufficient voting power [2] Group 3 - If the Trump administration cannot secure more seats on the FOMC, it may attempt to change the Federal Reserve's "genetics" through a major review of its thinking, forecasting models, and communication methods [3] - Kevin Warsh, a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, is critical of traditional Federal Reserve analysis and believes there is room for interest rate cuts [3] - The Trump administration appears to aim for low interest rate policies while managing the maturity of U.S. debt, potentially collaborating with the Federal Reserve to control the yield curve [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields are expected to end a four-day rise, with the 10-year yield increasing nearly 1 basis point to 4.39%, partially reversing a 10 basis point decline since the weak June PPI data was released [1] - The 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields rose by approximately 2 basis points, reaching 4.95% and 4.96% respectively [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at a regulatory meeting focused on large bank capital frameworks, with his remarks likely to address Basel III final rules, stress tests, and capital requirements [4] - Powell faces increasing pressure from former President Trump and Republican lawmakers regarding the Fed's renovation costs, which has drawn significant attention from traders and investors [4] - The potential for Powell's removal has led investors to bet on a steepening yield curve, with Deutsche Bank strategists predicting that if Trump moves to dismiss Powell, the 30-year Treasury yield could rise by over 50 basis points [5] Group 3 - Following reports of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell, a macro trading alert was issued, suggesting a strategy of buying 2-year Treasuries while selling 10-year Treasuries, based on expectations of a more dovish new Fed chair [5] - This trading strategy is seen as a hedge against the risk of Trump attempting to remove Powell, with expectations that a weakened Fed independence could raise long-term inflation expectations and thus long-term bond yields [5]