Core Insights - The rise of stablecoins represents a significant challenge to the existing monetary system and highlights the need for the issuance of RMB-pegged stablecoins, particularly in regions like the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and the Greater Bay Area [1][3] - Stablecoins have seen a dramatic increase in transaction volume, reaching $27.6 trillion in 2024, surpassing traditional payment giants like Visa and MasterCard [1] - The market for mainstream stablecoins is projected to reach $262.5 billion by June 2025, a 40-fold increase since 2020, indicating a growing challenge to the current financial system [2] Development Status and Academic Research - Stablecoins are defined as cryptocurrencies that are pegged to specific assets, typically fiat currencies, serving as a bridge between decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional financial systems [6] - There are three types of stablecoins based on collateral: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins [7] - Stablecoins can also be categorized by their yield models into interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing types, with non-interest-bearing stablecoins dominating the market [8] Challenges and Opportunities - The development of stablecoins poses challenges to monetary sovereignty, potentially undermining national economic control and financial stability [2] - Stablecoins are becoming a crucial infrastructure for connecting decentralized finance systems with traditional finance, especially in the context of accelerated digital transformation [2][4] - The internationalization of the RMB requires the establishment of a digital framework and active participation in global stablecoin rule-making to enhance its competitiveness [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector experienced a significant rally in the afternoon, with major indices continuing to strengthen, leading to new highs for the year in the Shanghai Composite Index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1%, reaching a new annual high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.66% [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 0.9% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Stablecoins, gaming, and large financial sectors were among the top gainers [1] - Nearly 2,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets experienced price increases [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw an upward trend on July 4, with all three major indices closing in the green. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41% to 3475.24, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.05% to 10540.00, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.18% to 2168.03 [1][2]. Stablecoin Sector - Stablecoin concept stocks experienced significant upward movement, with notable gains in related sectors such as power, banking, and software. The stablecoin index rose by 4.08%, while cross-border payment and digital currency indices also saw increases of 3.19% and 3.12%, respectively [2][3]. - Companies like Multi-Point Intelligence surged by 25%, with a trading volume of 7.72 billion HKD, following their announcement to apply for a stablecoin license in collaboration with HashKey Group [9][10]. - A-share stablecoin concept stocks also performed well, with Tianyang Technology rising nearly 15% and Jingbeifang hitting the daily limit [10][11]. Power Sector - The power sector showed volatility but ultimately saw gains, with companies such as Shaoneng Co., New Zhonggang, and Huayin Electric hitting the daily limit. Huayin Electric projected a net profit of 180 million to 220 million CNY for the first half of 2025, an increase of 175 million to 215 million CNY compared to the same period last year [14][15]. Regulatory Developments - Several companies have expressed intentions to apply for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, with the new Stablecoin Regulation set to take effect on August 1, allowing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to begin accepting applications [12]. - Open Source Securities reported that the stablecoin sector is approaching a "singularity" moment, with its application expanding from cryptocurrency trading to broader payment scenarios, leading to rapid growth in market size and trading activity [13].

Market Performance - A-shares indices showed a slight increase on July 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year at 3475.24 points, up 0.41% with a trading volume of 335.9 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.05% to 10540.00 points, with a trading volume of 526.8 billion yuan, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.18% to 2168.03 points, with a trading volume of 256.6 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as banking, gaming, electricity, cross-border payments, brain-computer interfaces, and internet finance, with several stocks reaching their daily limit [2] - Conversely, sectors like energy metals, wind power equipment, batteries, and marine economy experienced declines, with some stocks, such as Baiyang Co., hitting their daily limit down [2] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted the potential growth in the submarine cable market, projecting a 60% increase in the length of new submarine cables globally from 2026 to 2030 compared to the previous five years, with a CAGR of 13% expected for the market size from 2025 to 2030 [3] - The report also noted that leading companies in the domestic submarine cable sector are expected to enhance their competitiveness [3] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need for a unified national market and the orderly exit of backward production capacity in the steel industry, which could lead to further profit recovery in the sector [3] Trade Relations - The Ministry of Commerce of China confirmed that both China and the U.S. are working to implement the outcomes of recent economic talks, with the U.S. taking steps to lift certain trade restrictions on China, including the resumption of exports of EDA software and jet engines [4][5] - The Chinese government is expected to approve export licenses for eligible controlled items, indicating a potential thaw in trade tensions [4] Emerging Industries - The Sichuan provincial government is focusing on advancing key technologies in nuclear fusion and high-efficiency laser fusion energy, aiming to establish innovative enterprises in fusion energy and enhance production capabilities of related components [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share index: Expected to be volatile. The market is pricing in interest rate cuts in advance, and the A-share market has been boosted. However, A-share valuations are above the historical average, making it difficult for the market to rise significantly. The stablecoin concept is popular, but the path for stablecoins to replace the US dollar as a trading medium is still long. Domestically, credit contraction and insufficient demand remain the main contradictions, and although corporate profits improved in H1 2025, the index is unlikely to break through the central level significantly. On the other hand, it is also unlikely to experience a sharp decline in the short term [1]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - term bond market will continue its volatile pattern. Treasury bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.02%, the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts up 0.01%, and the 10 - year main contract basically stable. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan. The inter - bank market interest rates declined. The central bank's liquidity injection in June totaled 65.6 billion yuan, and the economy showed strong resilience in June, with monetary policy emphasizing flexible adjustment [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **A - share Index Futures**: Fed Chairman's remarks and dot - plot have led the market to price in interest rate cuts in advance, boosting the A - share market. But A - share valuations are high, and the stablecoin concept is popular. Domestically, 6 - month manufacturing PMI rose but remained in the contraction range, 5 - month PPI declined year - on - year, and new RMB loans decreased. Corporate profits improved in H1 2025, so the index is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures had different performances. The central bank's reverse repurchase operation led to a net withdrawal of funds. Inter - bank market interest rates declined. The central bank's liquidity injection in June and the economic resilience in June suggest a continued volatile pattern in the short - term bond market [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 3, 2025, compared with July 2, 2025, IH rose 0.19%, IF rose 0.61%, IC rose 0.30%, IM rose 0.31%, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.07%, the CSI 300 rose 0.62%, the CSI 500 rose 0.50%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.53% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 3, 2025, compared with July 2, 2025, TS was flat, TF was flat, T fell 0.02%, and TL fell 0.04% [3]. 3.3 Market News - One lithium - salt smelter in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan, initially planning to stop production for 2 months, while a lithium - salt smelter in Sichuan is operating normally [4]. - The Caixin China Services PMI in June dropped to 50.6, the lowest since October 2024, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of the service industry [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Multiple charts display the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates among major currencies [20][21][24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The stablecoin concept is experiencing a rebound, with several companies in the sector seeing significant stock price increases, indicating renewed investor interest in this area [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Jingbeifang has reached its daily limit up, setting a new historical high for its stock price [1] - Jin Yi Culture also hit its daily limit up, while companies like Xinya Da and Xiexin Nengke approached their daily limit up during trading [1] - Other companies such as Hopu Co., Tianyang Technology, Zhengyuan Wisdom, and Langxin Group also showed notable gains [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - Some public fund subsidiaries in Hong Kong are actively preparing for stablecoin initiatives [1] - Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) is participating in stablecoin sandbox testing, which includes critical aspects such as issuance, payment, asset docking, and fund subscription and redemption [1]

请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年 7 月 4 日星期五 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 | 1443.00 | -1.03 | 纳斯达克指数 | 20601.10 | 1.02 | | CME比特币期货 | 110605.00 | 0.29 | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44828.53 | 0.77 | | ICE布油 | 68.85 | -0.38 | 美元指数 | 97.12 | 0.35 | | 伦敦金现 | 3326.09 | -0.92 | 标普500 | 6279.35 | 0.83 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | 7.16 | -0.08 | 日经225 | 39785.90 | 0.06 | | 香港重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- ...

Company News - Xpeng Motors (09868.HK) launched the world's first L3-level AI car, the Xpeng G7, with a starting price of 195,800 yuan [1] - Automotive dealer Anlijie announced a distribution agreement with Geely Automobile (00175.HK) to introduce Geely's new energy vehicles to the Italian market [1] - Alibaba (09988.HK) announced the pricing of a zero-coupon exchangeable bond issuance amounting to 12.023 billion HKD [1] - Sunac China (01918.HK) reported a contract sales amount of 23.55 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 10.39% [1] - Agricultural Bank of China (01288.HK) stated it will follow the latest trends in global stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, but currently has no plans to develop stablecoins [1] - China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) has been approved to establish China Merchants Financial Asset Investment Co., with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan [1] - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co., Ltd. reduced its stake in SMIC (00981.HK) from 5.01% to 4.97% as of July 2, with an average share price of 43.8988 HKD [1] - Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 61.5 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of about 11% [1] - Longyuan Power (00916.HK) completed a total power generation of approximately 39.6525 million MWh in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 1.07% [1]

Group 1 - The recent surge in interest around stablecoins, with the stablecoin index increasing over 40% by June 2025, indicates a strong offensive attribute in the market [1][3] - Stablecoins face significant regulatory challenges but offer advantages such as "payment upon settlement," which can enhance market liquidity and efficiency in cross-border payments [4][6] - The financial technology ETF (159851) is highlighted as a potential investment vehicle closely related to stablecoins, with a market size exceeding 5.6 billion and an average daily trading volume of 550 million [10][11] Group 2 - The financial technology index has a high volatility, with a standard deviation of 2.72%, significantly higher than the 1.02% of the CSI 300 index, indicating a high-risk, high-reward investment profile [14][15] - The financial technology ETF is influenced by two high-beta sectors: those closely tied to the secondary market and those benefiting from AI advancements, suggesting both short-term and long-term growth potential [26][27] - The financial technology index's price-to-earnings ratio is around 80, which is consistent with its historical performance, indicating that high valuations may not be a concern if market conditions remain favorable [33]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of stablecoins continues to attract significant interest, with multiple companies planning to apply for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong following the upcoming regulations set to take effect on August 1, 2023 [1][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - Multi-Point Smart (02586.HK) announced plans to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong, leading to a stock price surge of nearly 90% on July 3, 2023, and a closing increase of over 23% [1][2]. - The company, established in 2015, is the largest provider of retail digital solutions in China, with a market capitalization that has fluctuated between 40 billion and nearly 200 billion HKD since its listing in 2024 [2]. - Multi-Point Smart's CFO expressed optimism about the cryptocurrency sector, highlighting that stablecoins can enhance cross-border payment efficiency and reduce costs for retail clients [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - Several companies, including Ant International and Lianlian Digital, are accelerating their applications for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, aiming to submit their applications as soon as the regulations are in effect [4]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will begin accepting license applications on August 1, 2023, and is currently consulting on specific guidelines for the new regulations [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The profitability of stablecoin issuers remains a topic of debate, with concerns about the sustainability of their business models [6][7]. - The first stablecoin issuer, Circle (CRCL.N), has seen its stock price soar post-IPO, but its revenue model, heavily reliant on reserve income, has faced scrutiny [7][8]. - Analysts have raised concerns about Circle's business model being vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations and increasing distribution costs, which could impact profitability [8].