文|六月 编辑|六月 前言 自2018年中美贸易战爆发以来，美国通过加征关税施压中国，试图迫使其让步，但特朗普的强硬政策未能扭转美国经济，反而加重了全球经济负 担，遭遇国内企业和民众的广泛反对。 特朗普施压降息，鲍威尔坚守美联储独立性，未屈从政治压力。其竟采取与中国同一阵线的立场，此事令特朗普惊愕不已。 中国面对美国压力，采取冷静务实的策略，强调平等对话和多边合作，力求在全球经济中最大化自身利益。 美联储在美国经济中的角色至关重要，它不仅关系到货币政策的制定，也直接影响到美国乃至全球的金融市场。 2017年，特朗普提名鲍威尔为美联储主席时，许多人对两人之间的合作充满期待。 鲍威尔的智慧能否帮助美国摆脱困境？中国又将如何应对未来的挑战？ 特朗普与鲍威尔 在美国，经济决策的权力从来不是集中在一个人手中的，尤其是美联储与政府之间，始终保持着一定程度的独立性。 毕竟，特朗普对经济的执着与鲍威尔的货币政策背景似乎有着某种契合。 特朗普希望通过降息来刺激美国经济，尤其是在面对贸易战带来的经济压力时，他更希望美联储能够加大宽松政策。 而鲍威尔则坚信美联储必须保持独立性，避免与政治挂钩，采取"稳中求进"的策略。 特朗普并没有 ...

沃什指出并警告美联储政治化的危险是正确的。普遍报道称，当特朗普在第一任期选择美联储主席时， 沃什也曾被考虑，也许他会在特朗普的第二任期中再次被考虑。 这倒不是说是因为他的演讲会让他受世界各国央行和媒体精英的欢迎，但沃什正在给美联储官员和其他 央行行长提供好的建议——至少如果他们想重新获得公众失去的信任，并避免对其货币政策独立性发起 严重挑战。 沃什补充道，美联储还漫步到资产配置和有争议的政治问题。住房危机结束很久之后，美联储购买抵押 贷款支持证券补贴了房地产市场。2021年，随着民主党掌控国会和白宫，美联储迎合了关于气候变化的 进步政治优先事项，甚至似乎针对特定人口群体的失业率。 他总结道，所有这些本质上都是保留给政府的政治问题。美联储越是将此类优先事项作为货币或监管政 策的目标，就越会进入政治纷争，并招致政界人士质疑其独立性。鲍威尔近年来已从这些努力中退步， 但损害已经造成。 美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评主导着关于美联储的评论，但在当前经济政策不确定性的时 期，一场更重要、更迫切需要的辩论正在进行。那就是：美联储的适当角色是什么？它是否以损害其独 立性的方式超越了其职权范围？这是市场认为的"影子美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) poses a significant risk to the credibility of the US dollar, potentially undermining its status as the world's reserve currency [2][14][17]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Statements - Trump has openly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting he should resign and threatening to remove him if necessary [3][4]. - The conflict between the President and the Fed is not new, as historical tensions have existed since the Fed's inception [3][4]. - Trump's remarks have led to a decline in the dollar index, which has dropped approximately 9% since January 20, marking one of the worst performances for the dollar in the first 100 days of a presidency since 1973 [14][16]. Group 2: Historical Context of Fed Independence - The Fed was established in 1913 to prevent excessive concentration of power in Washington and to avoid control by Wall Street financial giants [6][7]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining the credibility of the dollar, as it allows for the formulation of monetary policy free from political influence [12][13][17]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates is driven by the need to manage the US's substantial debt, which exceeds $36 trillion [23][26]. - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on price stability and full employment, often requiring it to act contrary to short-term political interests [12][31]. - The potential loss of Fed independence could lead to increased inflation and a decline in the dollar's international standing, as seen in historical precedents [21][22][30]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Speculative traders are increasingly shorting the dollar, with short positions reaching approximately $10 billion, indicating a lack of confidence in the dollar's stability [16][14]. - The market's reaction to Trump's threats suggests a growing uncertainty regarding the Fed's ability to operate independently, which could have broader implications for global financial stability [18][19]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts express concern that if the Fed's independence is compromised, it could lead to a structural shift in global asset allocation away from the dollar [17][20]. - The ongoing political pressure on the Fed may result in a prolonged period of uncertainty, affecting both domestic and international economic conditions [18][19].

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for the central bank to remain free from political interference to focus on maintaining inflation stability and high employment rates [1][7] - Powell's statements reflect a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve amid increasing global trade tensions and economic uncertainties [1][6] Group 1: Independence and Policy - Powell highlighted the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence to achieve its dual mandate of stable inflation and high employment, which is crucial for economic stability and sustainable growth [3][7] - The Federal Reserve is set to enter a quiet period, during which officials will refrain from making statements that could influence market expectations, ensuring the independence and transparency of monetary policy decisions [4] Group 2: Market Expectations and Economic Conditions - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time in the upcoming decision, reflecting the market's assessment of the current economic situation [5][7] - Despite some resilience in certain sectors of the U.S. economy, global economic uncertainties and trade tensions pose significant challenges to economic growth, requiring the Federal Reserve to balance growth and inflation control while avoiding excessive market intervention [6][7]

编辑 | 空纸 前言 特朗普与美联储的矛盾，并非一朝一夕形成。自他执政以来，便与美联储主席鲍威尔在经济政策上分歧不断。特朗普期望借经济刺激政策推动经济 增长、增加就业，巩固自身政治地位，坚信降息能快速激发投资与消费热情。 但鲍威尔领导的美联储，秉持专业经济理念，更看重经济长期稳定与可持续发展，认为贸然降息可能引发通胀，破坏经济稳定。 特朗普多次公开批评美联储及鲍威尔，甚至威胁解雇鲍威尔。2017年他提名鲍威尔，本盼其成为"低利率主义者"，配合自身政策，可鲍威尔却随着 美国经济走强而加息，令特朗普极为不满。 进入第二任期，面对关税政策带来的经济压力，特朗普愈发迫切希望美联储降息，鲍威尔却坚守立场，基于经济数据决策，拒绝政治干预。这场激 烈的权力博弈，正深刻影响着美国经济走向。 189国见证的关键会议 文 | 空纸 在全球经济局势波谲云诡的大背景下，2025年4月23日至24日，二十国集团（G20）主席国南非在美国华盛顿举行了今年第二次G20财长和央行行长 会议。 此次会议可谓是众望所归，吸引了全球目光。会议聚焦全球经济展望、完善国际金融架构、应对非洲发展和增长困境等关键议题，旨在凝聚各方智 慧，为全球经济的健康 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the S&P 500 index rising by 4.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite, driven by tech stocks, climbing 6.6% [1] - Major indices have recovered losses incurred since the April 2 tariff announcement, with a busy week ahead for economic data and corporate earnings reports [1] Economic Data and Corporate Earnings - Key economic indicators to watch include the upcoming non-farm payroll report and first-quarter inflation data, with particular focus on GDP growth [1][10] - 180 S&P 500 companies are set to release quarterly earnings, with major attention on giants like Apple, Amazon, Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, Meta, Microsoft, and Chevron [1] Policy Signals and Market Sentiment - Trump's recent comments alleviated concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and hinted at a potential reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, which positively impacted market sentiment [4] - The S&P 500 achieved its first four-day consecutive gain since January, although strategists caution that tariff concerns remain [4] Inflation Indicators - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated to show a year-over-year increase of 2.5% for March, down from 2.8%, with a month-over-month growth expected at 0.1% [7] Labor Market Resilience - Despite signs of economic slowdown, the labor market remains robust, with expectations of 133,000 new non-farm jobs in April and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2% [10] - The labor market's stability is noted, although employers may be adopting a wait-and-see approach due to recent trade policy changes [10] Technology Sector Performance - Tech stocks have led the recent market rally, with Tesla's stock rising approximately 18% amid positive sentiment regarding CEO Elon Musk's reduced government role and new autonomous driving regulations [14] - The "Big Seven" tech companies, including Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta, saw stock increases of about 9%, while Google's positive earnings report boosted its stock by 7% [14] - Upcoming earnings reports from major tech firms will be critical in assessing the impact of tariff changes and competition in the AI sector on their growth prospects [14]

近日,美国总统特朗普与美国联邦储备委员会(美联储)主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之间的争端不断升级。先是鲍 威尔公开表示关税政策影响"或超预期",之后特朗普一周内4次要求美联储降息,不断"炮轰"鲍威尔、甚至 威胁要让他"走人"。其实,始终坚持美联储独立性的鲍威尔,正是特朗普在其第一任期提名的。在美联储 100多年的历史上,还没有哪位主席被总统"炒掉"。 主笔 王晓莹 特朗普一周内4次施压降息 特朗普与鲍威尔之争,要从4月中旬说起。4月16日,鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话时说,美国政府已 宣布的关税上调幅度远超预期水平,其带来的经济影响同样可能超出预期,令美联储货币政策制定面临更 棘手局面。按照他的说法,加征关税将推高通胀和抑制经济增长；在现任政府正在实施的重大政策调整 影响下,美国经济很可能会放缓,失业率或将上升,而随着关税政策逐步生效,通胀也可能上升。鲍威尔还 说,美联储不会屈从政治压力,面对特朗普政府近期关税政策带来的复杂经济局面,美联储将重点考虑对抗 通胀。 鲍威尔作出此番表态的第二天,特朗普就在社交媒体上大肆抨击,称鲍威尔的行动总是"又迟又错","行动 太慢的鲍威尔早该像欧洲央行一样降息了,现在更应该立即降息 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the global economy, particularly focusing on the United States and its trade relations with China. Core Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tariff Policies**: Trump's tariff policies pose a significant threat to the global economy, leading the IMF to downgrade global growth forecasts, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises with limited liquidity, which could result in a weakened job market [1][2][4] - **Trust in the Dollar System**: The tariff policies have diminished trust in the dollar system, with concerns that they may lead to a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] - **Legal Challenges**: There are legal concerns regarding the unilateral imposition of tariffs without Congressional approval, raising questions about the legitimacy of using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a legal basis [3] - **Global Economic Rebalancing**: The IMF and IIF meetings highlighted the need for global economic rebalancing, emphasizing multilateral cooperation to address inequality and trade protectionism, alongside discussions on monetary policy coordination and structural reforms [5] - **Critique of Global Institutions**: Bessenet criticized the IMF and World Bank for failing to effectively coordinate global economic imbalances, suggesting a need for reform to refocus on their core responsibilities [6] - **Recommendations for U.S. and China**: Bessenet proposed that the U.S. should reduce consumption and increase manufacturing investment, while China should promote consumption and reduce excess supply to achieve economic rebalancing [7] - **Opposition to Recommendations**: Critics argue that Bessenet's suggestions overlook the U.S. fiscal deficit issue, asserting that without addressing this, tariffs alone will not resolve the underlying problems [8] - **Trade Negotiation Dynamics**: Both the U.S. and China perceive themselves as having the upper hand in tariff negotiations, leading to a lack of trust and willingness to compromise, which complicates trade discussions [10][11] - **Supply Chain and National Security**: Current tariff policies are accelerating corporate relocations and are linked to national security concerns, emphasizing the need for key industries to return to the U.S. [13] - **Monetary Policy Challenges**: The Federal Reserve faces significant challenges due to potential threats to its independence and the need to respond to economic data changes, with discussions on possible interest rate cuts if economic conditions worsen [14][18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **European Economic Positioning**: The tariff situation may inadvertently position Europe as a potential beneficiary, as it accelerates policy initiatives and could lead to closer ties with both the U.S. and China [16][20] - **Long-term Trade War Dynamics**: The ongoing trade war is expected to have long-lasting implications, with both sides believing they can win, which increases the risk of sustained conflict [9][12]

特朗普心里最怵的人至少有三个，两个在国外，分别是泽连斯基和普京，另一个在美国，他就是美联储 主席鲍威尔。他吵吵嚷嚷着要解雇鲍威尔，却功亏一篑。 现在，鲍威尔对他反戈一击，在国际货币基金组织会议上当着包括中国在内的190个成员国的面立下军 令状：美联储绝对不会屈服于特朗普的政治压力，并反复强调独立性，给世界吃了一颗定心丸。 特朗普4月2日向全球185个国家和地区发动关税大战后，最想做到的事情有三件： 第一件事是逼迫世界各国主动与美国联系，与美国进行关税谈判，从而达成令美国满意的关税协议，并 将这些国家拴在美国一边，乖乖地听从美国的号令，组成以美国为马首是瞻的新的关税和贸易阵营。 第二件事就是与中国结束关税大战，达成贸易协议。为了达到这个目的，特朗普政府多次释放正在与中 国举行关税谈判的假消息，多次遭到中国驳斥、打脸。 同时，特朗普还多次上演威胁讹诈的戏，他在4月25日声称"中国须做出实质性让步，否则不会取消对华 加征关税"。 对此，中国驻美国大使馆明确指出，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该纠正错误，停止威 胁讹诈，彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施。 第三件事是特朗普施压美联储主席鲍威尔要听话，立即降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to decline further due to policy uncertainty in the US and questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, despite a potential short-term rebound [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of 06:15 ET, the euro/dollar pair fell by 0.3% to $1.1355, with a cumulative decline of approximately 0.3% for the week, although it has risen over 5.5% this month and nearly 10% year-to-date [3]. - UBS analysts noted that uncertainty surrounding US policies, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve and tariffs, has weakened the dollar and increased risk-averse sentiment among investors, supporting the rise of the euro/dollar pair [3][4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor unease has been exacerbated by President Trump's public criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and legal inquiries into his potential removal, contributing to the dollar's decline [3]. - The discussion surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve has added a layer of uncertainty, combined with ongoing trade tensions, increasing tail risks for investors and further pressuring the dollar [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - UBS anticipates that as trade agreements are reached, tariffs will gradually decrease, but ongoing uncertainty may impact US corporate investment and economic growth [4]. - The firm expects the euro/dollar pair to remain supported, predicting limited chances for it to fall to or below 1.10, and projecting a consolidation phase between $1.12 and $1.16 before gradually rising to a target of $1.18 by March 2026 [5][6][7]. - UBS has revised its euro/dollar forecasts upward to $1.14 in June, $1.16 in September, and $1.16 in December, with a long-term target of $1.18 by March 2026, compared to previous forecasts of $1.10, $1.12, $1.12, and $1.14 respectively [7].