Group 1: Central Budget Investment - The central budget investment of 735 billion yuan has been largely allocated, focusing on modern industrial systems, infrastructure, new urbanization, rural revitalization, regional development, green development, and social welfare projects [1] - This year's investment direction has been optimized, increasing support for social welfare and reducing the financial burden on local governments [1][2] - The early allocation of central budget investment reflects a proactive fiscal policy in response to economic pressures, particularly in the real estate sector and insufficient domestic demand [1] Group 2: Economic Performance of Central Provinces - The economic performance of six central provinces shows a positive trend, with five provinces exceeding the national growth rate of 5.3% [3] - Hubei province leads with a GDP growth rate of 6.2%, while Henan follows at 5.7%, indicating strong investment, consumption, and export activities [3][4] - The economic disparity among these provinces is notable, with Shanxi facing challenges due to its reliance on coal and a less favorable business environment [4] Group 3: U.S. Manufacturing and Services Sector - The U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, indicating contraction, while the services PMI rose to 55.2, reflecting a divergence in economic performance [5][6] - The overall economic growth in the U.S. is uneven, with the services sector supporting growth despite manufacturing challenges [7] Group 4: Bank Deposit Rates - Average interest rates for short-term deposits have dropped significantly, with 3-month deposit rates entering the "0" range [8] - The decline in deposit rates is linked to a broader trend of decreasing loan rates, impacting banks' profitability [9] Group 5: Intel's Financial Performance - Intel reported a second-quarter revenue of $12.9 billion but faced a significant loss of $2.9 billion, a 81% increase in losses year-over-year [10] - The new CEO has shifted the company's strategy away from aggressive expansion, focusing on confirmed customer orders for future investments [10][11] Group 6: Country Garden's Debt Restructuring - Country Garden is expected to complete its overseas debt restructuring by the end of the year, having reached an agreement with bondholders for a $178 million compensation payment [12][13] - The restructuring plan has gained support from over 75% of bondholders, providing the company with a critical opportunity to alleviate its debt burden [13] Group 7: Chinese Companies Listing in the U.S. - There has been a significant increase in Chinese companies listing in the U.S., with 50 companies going public this year, a 78.57% increase from last year [14][15] - Despite the increase in listings, the total fundraising amount has decreased by 57.91%, indicating a shift in the fundraising landscape [14] Group 8: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.33% amid mixed sector performance [16][17] - The market is showing signs of increased activity, with a notable rise in trading volume and a rotation of sector performance [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy continued to recover in the first half of the year, with GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year and a 1.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2, providing strong support for the full - year GDP growth target of around 5%. In June, industrial production increased slightly, while fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable at a low level. However, the price level was under pressure, with PPI in the negative growth range for seven consecutive months, indicating insufficient demand and supply - demand imbalance. In terms of financial data, social financing grew more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Against the backdrop of the stable economic development in the first half of the year, the urgency of large - scale incremental policies in the second half may decrease [93]. - In the overseas market, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded more than expected, with strong growth in the service sector, indicating that the economy's internal momentum remains resilient. The labor market is stable, with the number of initial jobless claims reaching the lowest level since April. Trade tensions have eased, with recent trade agreements between the US and Japan and progress in US - EU tariff negotiations. However, the independence of US policies is challenged as the US president visited the Fed to pressure for interest rate cuts, increasing concerns about the politicization of monetary policy. Given the strong economic data, the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is further reduced, and policy path uncertainty may increase [93]. - Affected by policy themes such as "anti - involution" and Yajiang Water Conservancy Project construction, the equity market continued to strengthen, and the bond market continued to adjust, with long - term bonds performing significantly worse than short - term bonds. If the relevant details of the "anti - involution" policy are further introduced, it will continue to put pressure on the bond market in the short term. Due to the weak economic recovery and loose liquidity, the adjustment space for long - term bonds may be limited, and interest - rate bonds are likely to continue the pattern of weakening in a volatile manner. It is necessary to focus on the sustainability of the strong performance of risk assets. Operationally, it is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after the market stabilizes [94]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 2.05%, 0.61%, 0.43%, and 0.13% respectively. The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased, as did their open interests [11][15][30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The trading volumes and open interests of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased [30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: As of the end of Q2, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Foreign investment in RMB bonds increased, with the total amount of foreign - held RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion. Foreign investment in domestic stocks improved, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in stocks and funds in H1, and a net increase of $18.8 billion in May and June. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for Sino - US economic and trade talks from July 27 - 30. The 2025 central budgetary investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically allocated, focusing on modern industrial systems, infrastructure, new urbanization, and rural revitalization. The Ministry of Commerce will take measures to combat strategic mineral smuggling. The US - Japan trade agreement was reached, with the US reducing the "reciprocal tariff" on Japan from 25% to 15%, and Japan increasing US rice imports and investing $550 billion in the US. The US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, while the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024 [33][34]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and between 10 - year and 1 - year yields widened slightly. The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened, while the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed. The 10 - year contract's inter - period spread widened slightly, the 30 - year contract's inter - period spread narrowed slightly, and the 2 - year and 5 - year contracts' inter - period spreads widened [42][46][52]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract increased slightly [62]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight Shibor, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month interest rates all increased, and the weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.65%. The yields of Treasury bonds weakened, with 1 - 7Y yields rising by 3.5 - 7.3bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by 5.9bp and 6.3bp to 1.74% and 1.96% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed slightly [66][70]. - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, 400 billion yuan in MLF injections, with 1.7268 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases and 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 109.5 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.51% [73]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1.578232 trillion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1.757588 trillion yuan, resulting in a net financing of - 179.357 billion yuan [77]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1419, with a cumulative increase of 79 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB weakened. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield and the VIX index both decreased slightly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium increased [82][87][90]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategies - The domestic economy continues to recover, but the price level is under pressure. Overseas, the US economy is resilient, but policy uncertainty increases. Affected by policy themes, the bond market continues to adjust. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after the market stabilizes [93][94].

Core Viewpoint - The central government has allocated 735 billion yuan for investment this year, focusing on various key areas such as modern industrial systems, infrastructure, new urbanization, rural revitalization, regional coordinated development, openness, green development, and social welfare projects [1] Investment Focus - The allocation of central budget investments has been optimized this year, with increased support for social welfare and other key areas [1] - There is a notable increase in the proportion of investment support directed towards local governments, which helps alleviate their financial burdens [1] Implementation and Oversight - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to expedite the execution of investment plans and project construction to generate more tangible outcomes [1] - There will be a focus on regular monitoring and post-event supervision to ensure that funds are effectively utilized and to enhance overall benefits [1]

Group 1 - The central budget investment for 2025 has been largely allocated, focusing on key areas such as modern industrial systems and infrastructure [1] - The investment supports projects related to new urbanization, rural revitalization, regional coordinated development, and opening up to the outside world [1] - Additional focus areas include green development, social welfare, national security modernization, and post-disaster recovery [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report Core View - Macroscopically, Trump's tax letter will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on 14 countries such as Japan and South Korea starting August 1st, and the EU may be close to an agreement. Goldman Sachs has advanced the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates by three months, possibly in September, with a terminal interest rate of 3% - 3.25%. Fundamentally, there is significant uncertainty about the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, and Thailand has banned the transit of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting tin ore import supply. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. On the smelting side, the Yunnan production area faces a combination of raw material shortages and cost pressures, while the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment ended, the operating rates of some producers decreased, and the electronics industry entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recently, tin prices have corrected, the spot premium has been maintained at 400 yuan/ton, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm at low prices has increased, leading to a slight decrease in domestic inventories. Overseas inventories continue to decline, LME cancelled warrants have increased, and the premium has risen. Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60, and the price has returned to the previous trading range. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 262,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 263,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,730 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin was 33,770 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 35 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin was - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 28,262 lots, a decrease of 2,457 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 398 lots, an increase of 362 lots. The total inventory of LME tin was 2,110 tons, a decrease of 55 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,198 tons, an increase of 243 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME tin were 640 tons, a decrease of 25 tons. The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,868 tons, an increase of 61 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin was 264,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,100 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market was 267,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 710 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 3,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,230 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 64 US dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 255,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 259,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 173,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,180 yuan. The cumulative output of tinplate (strip) was 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons. The export volume of tinplate was 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 6. Industry News - Trump issued tariff letters to 14 countries, imposing a 25% tariff on imported goods from Japan and South Korea starting August 1st, 25% - 40% tariffs on countries such as Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand, and an additional 10% tariff on any country that aligns with the anti - US policies of the BRICS countries. He also signed an executive order to extend the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs until August 1st. White House officials said that specific country tariffs would not be叠加 with industry tariffs. China has newly allocated 10 billion yuan in central budgetary investment to carry out a work - for - relief action to expand employment and increase income for key groups [3]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to enhance effective investment and implement "two heavy" constructions, focusing on both "hard investment" and "soft construction" to improve project execution and investment efficiency [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The commission plans to optimize the direction of central budget investments and expedite the issuance of central budget investment plans [1] - There will be a management system for local government special bonds, including a "negative list" for investment directions and a "positive list" for project capital contributions [1] - The establishment of new policy-based financial tools aims to address the issues of insufficient project construction capital and matching funds [1] Group 2: Encouraging Private Investment - The initiative includes support and encouragement for the development of private investment [1] - There will be efforts to promote high-quality projects to private capital [1] - The implementation of a new mechanism for public-private partnerships (PPP) will be standardized [1]

Core Viewpoint - The audit report from the National Audit Office outlines the central budget execution and other fiscal revenues and expenditures for the year 2024, indicating a balanced budget with a deficit of 33,400 million yuan [1] Group 1: Central Budget Overview - The total revenue of the central general public budget is projected to be 108,844.06 million yuan, while the total expenditure is expected to reach 142,244.06 million yuan, resulting in a deficit of 33,400 million yuan, which aligns with the budget plan [1] - The central government fund budget is expected to have a total revenue of 15,126.64 million yuan and total expenditure of 14,711.77 million yuan [1] - The central state-owned capital operation budget is projected to have a revenue of 2,359.42 million yuan and expenditure of 2,305.2 million yuan [1] - The central social insurance fund budget is expected to have a revenue of 3,005.6 million yuan and expenditure of 2,959.73 million yuan, with a year-end balance of 85.58 million yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Allocation - The National Development and Reform Commission is managing the allocation of 700,000 million yuan in central budget investments, with 1,635 million yuan designated for central-level expenditures and 5,365 million yuan for transfers to local governments [1] - The investments are primarily directed towards eight key areas, including the construction of a modern industrial system, new urbanization, rural revitalization, regional coordinated development, and the advancement of national security systems and capabilities [1]

教育部：统筹用好中央预算内投资和超长期特别国债，支持高校持续改善办学条件 金十数据6月10日讯，教育部发展规划司司长郭鹏表示，在高等教育领域，今年"双一流"高校本科扩 招，对于刚参加完高考的同学来说是一个利好消息。下一步，将着力从三方面推动高等教育提质扩容。 一是"改善条件"，统筹用好中央预算内投资和超长期特别国债，支持高校持续改善办学条件。二是"优 化结构"，推动新增高等教育资源适度向中西部人口大省倾斜。支持布局新型研究型大学和高水平中外 合作办学。三是"产教融合"，引导高校面向经济社会发展需要完善学科专业设置调整机制，强化行业企 业实践培养，增强学生就业创业能力。 （中国网） ...

国家发改委：预计今年支持社会事业的中央预算内投资规模将比"十三五"末提高30%以上 金十数据6月10日讯，国家发展改革委副秘书长肖渭明在国新办新闻发布会上表示，"十四五"以来，国 家发展改革委按照党中央、国务院决策部署，不断加大民生建设投入。特别是从2024年起，我们在"两 重"建设、"两新"工作中加力支持了一批社会事业标志性工程建设，中央预算内投资支持社会事业的比 重持续提高，预计今年支持社会事业的中央预算内投资规模将比"十三五"末提高30%以上。在组织实 施"硬投资"项目的同时，我们加快出台落实"软建设"举措，完善"项目+政策"双轮驱动，推动以投资换 机制，努力做到补短板、扩内需、惠民生效应充分显现。 （中国网） ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) anticipates a more than 30% increase in central budget investment for social undertakings compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 1: Investment Plans - The NDRC will accelerate the implementation of "soft construction" measures alongside "hard investment" projects [1] - The investment strategy will focus on a dual approach of "projects + policies" to drive growth [1] Group 2: Economic Goals - The aim is to address shortcomings, expand domestic demand, and enhance the benefits to people's livelihoods [1]