欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 商务部1月2 9日举行例行新闻发布会。有记者问：美国贸易代表日前在达沃斯表示，在可 能举行的中美领导人会晤之前，中美双方有机会开启新一轮经贸谈判。请问商务部对此有 何评论？ 商务部新闻发言人何咏前表示，2 0 2 5年，在中美两国元首战略引领下，中美双方秉持平 等、尊重和互惠的精神，先后开展了五轮经贸磋商，取得一系列积极成果，充分证明中美 双方通过平等对话磋商，能够找到解决经贸分歧的办法。两国元首釜山会晤后，双方通过 中美经贸磋商机制在各层级持续保持沟通，共同推动落实元首会晤重要共识和吉隆坡经贸 磋商成果。下一步，中方愿与美方共同维护好、落实好两国元首重要共识，用好中美经贸 磋商机制，管控分歧、推进合作，促进中美经贸关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。 来源：新华社 End 编辑丨赵方婷 ...

商务部对外贸易司司长王志华。 对此，商务部对外贸易司司长王志华回应，2025年，在中美两国元首战略引领下，中美双方秉持平等、尊重 和互惠的精神，先后开展了五轮经贸磋商，取得了一系列积极成果，充分证明中美双方通过平等对话磋商， 能够找到解决问题的办法。 王志华表示，两国元首釜山会晤后，双方将通过中美经贸磋商机制在各层级持续保持沟通，共同推动落实元 首会晤重要共识和吉隆坡经贸磋商成果。下一步，中方愿与美方本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原 则，共同维护好、落实好两国元首重要共识，用好中美经贸磋商机制，管控分歧、推进合作，维护两国经贸 关系的稳定健康可持续发展。 南都讯 记者杨文君 发自北京 1月26日，国新办举行例行新闻发布会，介绍2025年商务工作及运行情况。 有报道称，美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔在达沃斯世界经济论坛上提出了与中国进行新一轮贸易谈判的可能 性。他表示，双方有可能在非敏感贸易项目上达成进一步的协议。 ...

【#商务部回应中美五轮经贸磋商#】#中美对话磋商能找到解决问题办法#商务部副部长鄢东1月26日在 国新办新闻发布会上表示，2025年中美双方秉持平等、尊重和互惠精神，先后开展了五轮经贸磋商，取 得了一系列积极成果，充分证明中美双方通过平等对话磋商能够找到解决问题的办法。两国元首釜山会 晤后，双方通过中美经贸磋商机制，在各层级持续保持沟通，共同推动落实元首会晤重要共识和吉隆坡 经贸磋商成果。下一步，中方愿与美方本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢原则，共同维护好、落实好 两国元首重要共识，用好中美经贸磋商机制，管控分歧、推进合作，维护两国经贸关系稳定、健康、可 持续发展。（新华社） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the U.S. and China can achieve mutual prosperity through dialogue, cooperation, and managing differences, despite their historical and cultural divergences [1][3] - A recent poll indicates that 53% of Americans support friendly cooperation with China, marking the first majority in favor of such a policy since 2019, reflecting a gradual rational understanding of U.S.-China relations [1][2] - The historical context of international relations suggests that managing differences between major powers is crucial for global peace and stability, highlighting the urgency and significance of U.S.-China cooperation [1][3] Group 2 - It is essential to view differences in the economic and trade sectors correctly, as competition and friction are normal between the world's two largest economies, but the focus should remain on the long-term benefits of cooperation [2] - Dialogue is necessary for managing differences, and it must be based on principles such as mutual respect and equality, which are vital for effective conflict management between the U.S. and China [2][3] - Constructive dialogue aimed at problem-solving has been prioritized in recent U.S.-China trade negotiations, with five rounds of discussions showing a commitment to addressing issues and enhancing cooperation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government firmly opposes the U.S. decision to impose Section 301 tariffs on certain Chinese semiconductor products, asserting that it violates WTO rules and disrupts global supply chains, ultimately harming U.S. businesses and consumers [1]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Announcement - The U.S. Trade Representative's office announced on December 23 that it would impose Section 301 tariffs on certain Chinese semiconductor products, with an initial rate of 0% that will increase after 18 months, specifically in June 2027 [1]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed strong disapproval of the U.S. findings from the Section 301 investigation, emphasizing that it does not recognize the conclusions drawn by the U.S. [1]. Group 2: China's Response - The Chinese government has initiated formal negotiations with the U.S. through the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism to address these concerns [1]. - China urges the U.S. to correct its actions and remove the tariffs, advocating for resolution through equal dialogue based on mutual respect and cooperation [1]. - Should the U.S. continue to harm China's interests, the Chinese government is prepared to take necessary measures to protect its rights [1].

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 一、行情回顾与操作建议 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 据 CFTC，截至11月 4日当周，CFTC美棉仅期货非商业持仓基金多头 78625 （+3267）张，连续第二周增加，空头 123469（-6936）张，连续第三周 减少，ICE 总持仓 30 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton [1] - **Bearish Dominance**: Red dates, live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillation. Although recent inventory has increased, the expected decrease in weekly crushing volume may relieve supply pressure. Wait for the US Department of Agriculture's December report and monitor South American soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillation. Due to the influence of weather premium speculation on the soybean meal side and low import expectations, the far - month contract is expected to maintain a bullish oscillation. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's December report and China - Canada trade developments [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to stop falling in stages. Although there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November, there are positive factors such as delayed implementation of EU regulations and floods in Southeast Asia. Be cautious when chasing long at high levels and look for opportunities to go long after adjustments [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish oscillation. Domestic inventory is slightly lower than before but still higher than the five - year average. Follow the trend of palm oil and pay attention to South American soybean weather [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term bullish. With coastal oil mills shut down, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero imports in November, the fundamentals are strong, so a bullish approach is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. ICE market is expected to oscillate. In the domestic market, low - basis resources are decreasing, and cost support is strengthening. However, there are still constraints such as high inventory and hedging pressure. Consider buying on dips and look for medium - to - long - term recovery opportunities [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillating weakly. As new products are launched and the consumption season arrives, the market will transition to a situation of both supply and demand increasing. It is recommended to maintain a bearish attitude, but do not chase short positions excessively [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Oscillating weakly. In December, sample enterprises have a high enthusiasm for slaughter. With limited demand growth, it is difficult to support prices. Focus on short - selling opportunities for the near - month 01 contract, and the 03 contract is also bearish. Look for short - term long - buying opportunities for the 09 and 11 contracts after the selling pressure is released [1][18]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957600 tons, up 15100 tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733960 tons, up 18970 tons week - on - week; and soybean meal inventory was 120320 tons, up 5170 tons week - on - week [3]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 3046 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3114.86 yuan/ton, down 1.71 yuan or 0.05% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons, both unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 2408 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.62% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2497.89 yuan/ton, down 9.48 yuan or 0.38% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the national key areas' commercial inventory was 653500 tons, down 13600 tons or 2.04% week - on - week [8]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 8730 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8818 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 0.86% [7]. Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion, and rainfall in late November was unfavorable for harvesting; in India, new cotton is being listed, and rainfall in late November affected MSP procurement; in Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and non - main producing areas have started sowing the 2026 new cotton [11]. - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is almost finished, and the sales progress is relatively fast. The new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton. The national commercial inventory has increased, and downstream demand has shown some resilience [12]. Red Dates - **Supply**: New dates are being harvested, and the expected new - season output is 500000 - 600000 tons. The purchase price has remained stable recently [15]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 9055 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or 0.60% from the previous day. The spot price in some areas has remained unchanged [14]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises increased by 3.2%. The overall supply pressure may still be large, but the long - term supply may gradually decrease as the number of fertile sows decreases [17]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 11490 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.31% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 11430 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan or 1.64% [16].

数据显示，11月份，在13个中国制造业PMI分项指数中，生产指数、新订单指数、新出口订单指数、在 手订单指数、采购量指数、进口指数、主要原材料购进价格指数、出厂价格指数、从业人员指数、供应 商配送时间指数和生产经营活动预期指数均较上月有所上升，升幅在0.1至1.7个百分点之间；原材料库 存指数与上月持平；产成品库存指数较上月有所下降，降幅为0.8个百分点。其中，新出口订单指数为 47.6%，较上月上升1.7个百分点，升幅是上述13个分项指数中最大的。 新华财经北京11月30日电（记者安娜）11月份，反映宏观经济运行情况的重要先行指标——中国制造业 采购经理指数（PMI）止降回升，特别是制造业出口相关分项指数表现亮眼，成为带动市场需求恢复， 支撑中国制造业PMI回升的重要力量。 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会11月30日发布的数据显示，11月份，中国制造业 PMI为49.2%，较上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 "11月份中国制造业PMI小幅回升，表明市场信心有所改善。四中全会精神全面贯彻落实，'十五五'发展 目标鼓舞人心，都对市场信心产生了积极影响。"国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部 ...

格隆汇11月20日｜商务部今日下午举行例行新闻发布会。商务部新闻发言人何咏前表示，目前，中方正 严格按照中美吉隆坡经贸磋商共识做好相关落实工作。 ...

Report Title - "Weak Decline with Limited Downside Space – Weekly Report on Non-ferrous Metals (Nickel) by Guoxin Futures" dated November 16, 2025 [2][3] Report Core View - The Shanghai nickel futures showed a weak downward trend this week. Refined nickel production remained high while demand was insufficient. The supply from the Philippines was affected by the rainy season and Typhoon "Seagull", with shipping stagnant, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream demand, and the mid - term trend was yet to be observed with new capacity coming on stream. The stainless - steel market had weak prices, cautious raw material procurement by steel mills, poor terminal demand, and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 123,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton [39] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [7][8][9] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - It shows the inventory data of China's nickel ore ports from a certain period, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [12][13][14] 2.2 Midstream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Displays the price trend of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.3 Midstream - Nickel Sulfate Price - Presents the average price trend of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [18][19] 2.4 Midstream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Shows the monthly import volume of Chinese ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [20][21] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Price - Displays the closing price of stainless - steel futures (continuous) [22][23] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Futures Position - Presents the position volume of stainless - steel futures from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [24][25][26] 2.5 Downstream - Wuxi Stainless - Steel Inventory - Shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel [27][28][29] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - Displays the monthly production volume of Chinese power batteries and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total production volume of power and energy - storage batteries [30][31] 2.7 Downstream - New - Energy Vehicle Production - Presents the monthly production volume of Chinese new - energy vehicles [32][33] 3. Outlook for the Future - In the US, on October 29 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, with internal differences. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December is 63.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 36.6%. In China, the manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the manufacturing industry has been in the contraction range since April. The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries in October were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, still in the expansion range. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 123,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton [39]