兑付保障及清偿顺序存在本质区别。国债由国家财政承担无条件兑付责任，不存在破产清算的场景，兑 付保障具有绝对稳定性。根据2025年修订的《企业破产法》，企业债持有人在企业破产清算时的清偿顺 序位于股权持有人之前，但仍需依赖企业剩余可分配资产。若企业资产不足以覆盖全部债务，企业债持 有人将面临部分甚至全部本金损失，而国债不会出现此类情况。 债券是金融市场中重要的固定收益类投资工具，国债和企业债是其中两类常见品种。作为不同发行主体 发行的债券，二者在风险特征上存在显著差异，了解这些差异有助于投资者更清晰地认识两类债券的属 性。以下将从信用风险、利率相关风险、流动性风险、兑付保障及清偿顺序、政策风险等维度，依据 2025年全国最新修订的法案法规，对二者的风险差异进行科普解读。 信用风险是二者最核心的差异。国债的发行主体为国家，依据2025年修订的《中华人民共和国预算 法》，国债的兑付由中央财政统筹保障，以国家信用作为背书，不存在违约的可能性。而企业债的发行 主体是各类企业，根据2025年修订的《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》，企业债的兑付依赖于发行企业 的经营收益和资产状况，若企业出现经营亏损、现金流断裂或破产清算等情 ...

市场风险方面，二者的表现也有所不同。市场利率变动会对所有债券的价格产生影响，但受信用因素叠 加，企业债的价格波动往往更为明显。当市场利率上升时，债券价格普遍下跌，而企业债因信用风险溢 价的存在，其价格下跌幅度通常大于国债；当市场环境发生变化，如宏观经济下行时，投资者对企业经 营状况的担忧会加剧，企业债的信用利差会扩大，进一步放大其价格波动。此外，国债作为传统的避险 资产，在市场不确定性增加时，往往会受到投资者的青睐，价格表现相对稳定，而企业债的价格则更容 易受到负面情绪的冲击。 本文内容根据公开信息整理生成，不代表发布者及其关联方的官方立场或观点，亦不构成任何形式的投 资建议。请您对文中关键信息进行独立核实，自主决策并承担相应风险。 信用风险是二者最核心的差异之一。国债的发行主体为中央人民政府，根据2025年修订的《中华人民共 和国预算法》及相关规定，国债的还本付息以国家财政收入为坚实保障，具有极高的信用可靠性，不存 在违约风险。而企业债的发行主体为各类企业，其偿还能力依赖于企业的经营效益、现金流状况等因 素，若企业出现经营不善、财务状况恶化等情况，则可能出现无法按时还本付息的违约情形。不同信用 等级的企业债 ...

随着科技巨头为AI基础设施大举发债，投资者对潜在债务风险的担忧日益加剧。 根据数据清算机构DTCC的最新数据，自今年9月初以来，与少数几家美国科技集团挂钩的信用违约互 换（CDS）交易量已飙升90%。CDS是一种类似保险的金融工具，可以在公司发生违约时为投资者提供 保护。 这股对冲热潮的出现，正值华尔街对科技股的抛售因甲骨文和博通等公司业绩不及投资者高预期而再度 加剧。 而投资者的不安情绪，源于科技公司为建设AI基础设施而掀起的一股发债狂潮。这些需要投入巨额资 金的项目可能需要数年时间才能产生回报，其不确定性正促使投资者重新评估相关公司的信用风险，并 积极寻求保护性策略。 AI融资转向，信贷市场成新战场 今年年初，对于高评级的美国科技公司而言，信用风险几乎是一个不存在的话题。当时，这些公司主要 依靠其庞大的现金储备和强劲的盈利能力来资助AI支出。然而，随着成本不断攀升，情况发生了变 化。 据统计，今年秋季，Meta、亚马逊、Alphabet和甲骨文四家公司通过发行债券合计融资高达880亿美 元，专门用于AI项目。摩根大通预测，到2030年，投资级公司为AI项目融资的规模可能达到1.5万亿美 元。这种从内部融资 ...

在A股众多投资产品中，可转债凭借"下有保底，上不封顶"的独特优势越发收到投资者的关注，本文让我们对可转债的本质进行一探究竟。 可转债，全称可转换公司债券（Convertible Bond， CB），是上市公司发行的一种特殊的债券，它是"债券+期权"的奇妙组合。它赋予债券持有人在到期后 可得到还本付息的保障，也赋予了债券持有人在特定时间、按照特定条件将债券转换为公司普通股的权利。从本质讲，可转债是 "债券" 与 "股票期权" 的有 机结合体。 作为债券，其有固定的面值，通常每张为 100 元，发行时会约定票面利率每年给债券持有人付息（比如第一年 0.40%、第二年 0.60%、第三年 1.00%、第四 年 1.50%、第五年 2.50%、第六年 3.00%）。尽管约定票面利率普遍低于普通债券，但能为债券持有人提供基本的收益保障。若债券持有人持有可转债直到 期，到期时可获得本金和利息，这构成了可转债投资的基本安全垫。 而作为股票期权，可转债给予债券持有人在未来某个时间段内，按照既定转股价格将债券转换为公司股票的选择权。当公司经营状况良好，股价上涨，且高 于转股价格时，债券持有人通过转股即可分享公司成长带来的红利， ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle is facing significant market concerns regarding its high debt levels, negative free cash flow, and the uncertainty surrounding its partnership with OpenAI, which may overshadow any positive signals from its upcoming earnings report [1][3]. Debt Risk Focus - Oracle's debt situation has become a focal point for market scrutiny, with the company issuing hundreds of billions in bonds through direct issuance and project financing in recent months [3]. - Analysts highlight that Oracle's balance sheet is under pressure, with negative free cash flow and high leverage, raising concerns about its financial stability [3]. - Despite expectations of an 11% increase in adjusted earnings per share and a 15% revenue growth year-over-year, the company's gross margin is projected to decline from 71% to approximately 69% due to capital-intensive investments [3][4]. Capital Expenditure Concerns - The company's capital expenditure for the second fiscal quarter ending in November is expected to reach $8.2 billion, a significant increase from less than $4 billion in the same period last year [4]. - Free cash flow is anticipated to be negative $5.9 billion, contrasting with a positive $2.7 billion in the previous year [4]. OpenAI Dependency Issues - Investors are closely monitoring Oracle's revenue concentration risk, particularly following its large-scale cloud computing service agreement with OpenAI [5]. - The deep partnership with OpenAI raises strategic risk concerns, especially as OpenAI faces challenges, which could exacerbate Oracle's risk profile [5]. - Oracle executives are likely to be questioned about the progress of their collaboration with OpenAI during the upcoming earnings call, and revealing new significant clients could alleviate concerns about customer concentration [5]. Valuation Concerns - Despite a notable decline in stock price from its peak, Oracle's valuation remains high, with a forward P/E ratio of approximately 30, significantly above its historical average of around 17 and higher than the Nasdaq 100's valuation of about 26 [6]. Market Reaction Expectations - Regardless of the earnings report outcome, options traders anticipate a 10% stock price fluctuation post-report, indicating that the core issue lies in market confidence regarding Oracle's growth trajectory rather than the growth itself [7].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing correlation between non-bank financial assets and banking and insurance assets poses risks that are harder to penetrate and spread quickly, as highlighted by the Deputy Director of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, Xiao Yuanqi, at the Asia Insurance Forum 2025 [1] Regulatory Environment - Stricter regulations on capital requirements for solvency and leverage limits on large risk exposures are essential to prevent insurance companies from blindly increasing risk appetite for short-term high returns, thereby enhancing the stability of insurance assets [1] Market Trends - Since the 2008 global financial crisis, the rapid development of non-bank financial intermediaries, alongside a relaxed financing environment, has led to a significant increase in asset multiples, with global private credit exceeding $2 trillion [1] - Insurance companies, as key providers of funds, have expanded investment channels and improved asset-liability structures, resulting in higher yields [1] Credit Risk Concerns - The complexity and low transparency of these asset structures, often lacking ratings or having low ratings, increase the credit risk faced by insurance companies, as borrowers typically have high leverage and a greater probability of defaulting [1]

01 金属专场 | 国信期货2026年年度策略报告会 14:00-17:00 核心看点： 商品市场在理性供需下面临新平衡，成本韧性构筑安全边际。有色金属板块中，铜铝凭借战略价值 成为明确的引领性机遇，增长动能依然强劲。 嘉宾： 李文婧丨国信期货研究所主管 邵荟憧丨国信期货黑色金属分析师 马钰丨国信期货黑色金属分析师 张嘉艺丨国信期货有色金属分析师 扫码预约 嘉宾： 王开丨国信证券策略首席分析师 扫码预约 03 开源陈曦：2026年债市展望：债券收益率的上行空间 16:00-17:00 02 国信策略王开：2026年大类资产配置展望 15:00-16:00 核心看点： 资产配置范式革新，全球宏观新常态下，传统安全资产的根基正在动摇。当作为安全垫的全球债券 本身面临信用风险和波动加剧时，风险对冲功能大打折扣，黄金和海外股市成为破圈所在。全球视 野、本土智慧一起探寻2026资产配置脉搏。 核心看点： Tims中国（THCH.CO）将重点解读三季度营收增速、利润率及成本控制表现，并详细介绍近期可 转债发行与债务结构优化对资本灵活性及财务费用的影响。市场关注公司如何通过本轮调整强化现 金流，支撑门店扩张与数字化战略，同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current challenges in the bond market, highlighting that while bonds are considered fixed-income assets, their returns are not guaranteed and can fluctuate significantly, leading to potential losses for bond funds [3]. Group 1: Types of Bonds - Bonds can be categorized into interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and convertible bonds based on the issuer [5]. - Interest rate bonds are issued by government entities and have lower default risk, primarily influenced by market interest rates [5]. - Credit bonds are issued by non-government entities and carry higher credit risk, with returns affected by both market rates and the issuer's creditworthiness [5]. - Convertible bonds can be converted into stocks and have characteristics of both debt and equity [5]. Group 2: Understanding Bond Funds - Investors should review fund names, contracts, and periodic reports to understand the underlying assets of bond funds [6]. - Some bond funds may invest in equities, convertible bonds, and warrants, not just bonds, so investors should verify the investment scope [9]. - For those interested in fixed income plus products, additional strategies and investment ranges should be considered, including equity and convertible bond combinations [12]. Group 3: Duration and Risk Assessment - Duration is a key metric for bond investors, indicating the time required to recover principal and interest, with shorter durations generally indicating lower interest rate sensitivity [15][16]. - Investors should assess the duration of the bond fund's portfolio to gauge interest rate risk [15]. - Common risks in the bond market include liquidity risk and credit risk, which can impact fund performance [18][21]. Group 4: Liquidity and Credit Risk - Liquidity risk refers to the ability to sell bonds at reasonable prices; poor liquidity can lead to significant losses during market volatility [18][19]. - Credit risk is associated with the likelihood of default, with higher-rated bonds generally being more reliable [21][22]. - Investors should analyze the credit quality of the bonds within a fund to evaluate potential risks [22].

Core Viewpoint - The correlation between non-bank financial asset investment and insurance investment has increased, particularly since the 2008 global financial crisis, driven by a more relaxed financing environment and rapid growth in non-bank financial intermediaries [1][2]. Group 1: Non-Bank Financial Assets - The global private credit market has surpassed $2 trillion, indicating significant growth in non-bank financial assets [1][2]. - Non-bank financial intermediaries have developed rapidly, leading to an increase in asset multiples [1][2]. Group 2: Insurance Companies - Insurance companies have become key funding sources, enhancing investment channels and improving asset-liability structures, which in turn has raised yield rates [1][2]. - However, insurance companies face higher credit risks due to the complexity and low transparency of these assets, which often lack ratings or have low ratings, and borrowers typically have high leverage, increasing the probability of defaults [1][2]. Group 3: Regulatory Considerations - The increasing correlation between non-bank financial assets and banking/insurance assets raises concerns about intertwined risks that can spread quickly, especially given the stricter regulatory environment for banks and insurance institutions [1][2]. - Strengthening capital requirements for solvency and constraints on large risk exposures is crucial to prevent insurance companies from blindly increasing risk appetite in pursuit of short-term high returns, thereby enhancing the stability of insurance assets [1][2].

北京商报讯（记者 李秀梅）12月8日，金融监管总局副局长肖远企在香港亚洲保险论坛2025上表示， 2008年全球金融危机以来，随着融资环境的宽松，除了保险以外的非银行金融中介发展迅速，资产倍数 增长。有数据表明，光全球私募信贷规模目前就已超过2万亿美元。保险公司作为重要的资金供给方， 一方面增加了投资渠道，改善了资产负债结构，收益率随之提升。但另一方面，面临的信用风险也相对 较高。因为这类资产结构复杂，透明度低，往往缺乏评级或评级不高，借款人本身杠杆率通常也很高， 违约退出市场的概率相对较大。 肖远企指出，近年来，非银行金融资产与银行业保险业资产的关联度越来越高。银行保险机构普遍接受 更加严格的监管，对客户和投资资产评级要求更高，关联度提高容易造成风险的交织难穿透和传播更快 速。从监管来说，强化偿付能力的资本占用约束和大额风险暴露的杠杆水平约束，对防范一些保险公司 为追求短期高收益而盲目提高风险偏好，从而提升保险资产的稳健性是十分重要的。 ...