（来源：吴说） 来源：市场资讯 吴说获悉，Arthur Hayes 在最新文章中预测，若特朗普政府通过掌控美联储推行收益率曲线控制 （YCC）并大规模印钞，到 2028 年美国新增信贷规模或超 15 万亿美元。按其模型测算，比特币价格 有望上涨至 340 万美元，远高于当前约 11.5 万美元。他强调目标并非精准预测，而是确认方向：在持 续货币扩张背景下，比特币仍是最强赛道。 ...

分析师柯克·斯帕诺表示，这种反常现象的核心在于商业银行体系：通过向家庭和私人信贷实体大幅扩张信贷，银行系统创造了超过90%的货币增量——正 如2014年英国央行研究所指出的，美联储自2020年起虽停止发布相关数据，但资产负债表趋势已清晰印证这一机制。 M2货币供应与资产价格存在显著相关性。阿波罗全球研究显示，全球M2每变动1%，比特币价格弹性达2.65%，黄金为2.77%，标普500指数仅1.20%且滞后 周期更长。 这种差异使得当M2收缩时，比特币与黄金的跌幅会远超股票。2023年以来M2走平与比特币价格停滞的高度同步性，正是这种关联性的现实注脚。 当前货币扩张的可持续性正面临挑战。信用卡违约率在2022-2023年攀升后暂趋平稳，汽车贷款违约率却升至5.1%(历史均值为3.5%)，更值得关注的是联邦 住房管理局（FHA）抵押贷款宽容率翻倍增长。 据媒体披露，近两年约有15%的FHA贷款通过减免或延期维持运转，若没有这些措施，违约率将直逼2008年金融危机水平。这种通过修改贷款条款(如延长 至40年期)维持的脆弱平衡，暗示银行系统作为M2主要创造者即将被迫收缩信贷。 失业率已成为关键先行指标。虽然目前数据仅 ...

Summary of Stablecoin Industry Discussion Industry Overview - The stablecoin industry is gaining regulatory approval globally, with varying degrees of strictness across regions such as Hong Kong and the EU [1][4][16] - Stablecoins are primarily pegged to fiat currencies or various assets to maintain value stability, with USD-pegged stablecoins being particularly popular due to the dollar's dominance in the digital currency market [1][5][29] Core Insights and Arguments - **Core Applications of Stablecoins**: - Stablecoins facilitate easy conversion to local currencies, even in regions with strict regulations [2] - They maintain a stable value, supported by 1:1 backing with fiat assets and regular audits, enhancing user trust [2][5] - They are compatible with various blockchain networks, allowing for efficient transactions and liquidity [2][6] - **Regulatory Landscape**: - Different regions have begun issuing licenses for stablecoin operations, with Hong Kong planning to start its licensing program in August 2025 [2][4][16] - The regulatory environment varies, with the US and EU taking different approaches to stablecoin issuance and oversight [18][23] - **Market Dynamics**: - The popularity of USD-pegged stablecoins is attributed to their stability and the transparency of major issuers like Circle and Tether [5] - Stablecoins are increasingly used in e-commerce, providing lower transaction costs compared to traditional payment methods [7][11] - **Cross-Border Payments**: - Stablecoins offer significant advantages in cross-border transactions, enabling faster transfers compared to traditional systems like SWIFT [12] - They are particularly valuable in countries with high inflation, where residents convert local currency to stablecoins for value preservation [12] - **Investment Potential**: - Stablecoins are seen as both a reliable store of value and a potential investment tool, facilitating exchanges between different digital assets [13][26] - The ability to anchor stablecoins to multiple assets could enhance their value and expand their use cases [26][27] Additional Important Insights - **Technological and Compliance Roles**: - Technology providers play a crucial role in the stablecoin ecosystem, ensuring compliance with KYC and anti-money laundering regulations [19] - The integration of stablecoins into decentralized platforms can yield benefits such as interest earnings for users [14] - **Global Trends**: - Financial institutions and payment companies are becoming the primary issuers of stablecoins, with a growing demand for regulatory frameworks to ensure safety and liquidity [18][20] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with regions like Dubai and Singapore adopting different strategies to attract stablecoin development [22] - **Future of Stablecoins**: - There is potential for stablecoins to evolve beyond strict 1:1 fiat backing, allowing for more innovative financial products [26][28] - The rise of stablecoins is reinforcing the dollar's status as the world's primary currency, particularly in international trade [29] - **Internationalization of the Renminbi**: - To promote the internationalization of the Renminbi, strategies could include creating a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin and leveraging existing global networks [30]

·Asset Strategies International：金价将进一步上涨 ·Adrian Day Asset Management：黄金的基本面驱动因素并未消失或者改变 【机构分析】 ·铜冠金源期货：预计短期金价将维持震荡偏强走势 ·中辉期货：继续看好后续贵金属大周期表现 ·光大期货：多空分歧加剧缺乏明确方向黄金或维系震荡整理态势 ·光大期货表示，进入6月份，市场将继续聚焦美国和其他主要经济体的关税谈判进展情况，预期缓和推 动金价回落整理，若预期谈判走向僵局，也会推动金价反弹，特别是欧美关税谈判也将进入关键期，或 将主导市场风险偏好和对美元指数的预判，对黄金影响不言而喻。6月上旬市场也将关注美国通胀数据 以及即将到来的美联储议息会议，推迟降息已在预期内，黄金或依然震荡甚至弱势对待，投资者应关注 美联储立场是否有所转变，鹰派或鸽派预期将影响下旬及后市金价表现。从盘面来看，多空分歧正在加 剧，缺乏明确方向，黄金震荡整理态势或将维系一段时间，关注金价在历史高位下的表现，操作上多看 少动，等待市场走出明确的方向。 ·Asset Strategies International总裁兼首席运营官Rich Chec ...

自特朗普就任以来，美国债务持续恶化。10年期美债收益率逼近年度高点——这发生在二季度GDP萎缩、CPI温和维 持在2%略高、且Truflation(一种专有的非滞后通胀指标)连续两月低于2%的背景下。 究其原因，这是两种动态因素共同作用的结果： 贸易关税不确定性及财政赤字膨胀带来通胀压力，从而导致利率长期高企。鉴于国会最近通过的减税法案以及美国正 处于财政赤字状态，利率走向的不确定性不难理解; 部分国家因政治因素(包括贸易战)减持美债。 智通财经APP获悉，随着美国主权债务危机持续发酵，市场对比特币作为新型全球储备资产的关注度急剧升温。在这 一背景下，该数字货币或将迎来历史性机遇。 美国债务与信用危机：从意大利和日本寻找镜鉴 5月21日20/30年期国债拍卖遇冷即是明证。当前危机本质是信用危机：尽管特朗普竞选时猛烈抨击拜登在充分就业时 期维持巨额赤字，但市场正在觉醒——美国根本无意解决债务问题。与此同时，特朗普的贸易政策正疏远曾经是美债 的大买家。 要预见美国债务前景，不妨观察已陷入债务危机的发达国家： 首先看意大利。自2010年代起，该国便深陷债务/GDP比值全球最高的困境。鲜为人知的是，疫情期间意大利已在 ...