Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish outlook despite fluctuations, with potential support levels identified for future buying opportunities [1][5][10]. Market Performance - On June 9, gold opened at $3311.77 per ounce, reached a low of $3293.69, and closed at $3325.39, marking a daily increase of $13.62 or 0.41% [1]. - The daily trading range was $44.23, indicating significant volatility [1]. Influencing Factors - The U.S. dollar index is experiencing downward pressure due to internal conflicts and geopolitical risks, which has contributed to a rebound in gold prices [3][8]. - The market is currently cautious, with a lack of clear driving factors, and gold's performance is expected to be volatile until it breaks through short-term moving averages [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices remain above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that while bullish momentum has weakened, key support levels are still intact, suggesting potential buying opportunities on dips [12]. - The daily chart highlights that gold has not broken below key support levels, indicating that any pullbacks could present buying opportunities [14]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. CPI data is anticipated to influence market sentiment, with expectations of rising inflation potentially benefiting gold prices [5][8]. - The overall economic environment, including rising fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions, continues to support gold as a safe-haven asset [8].

Group 1 - The OECD has revised down its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, a decrease of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from earlier predictions made in March [1] - The report highlights that increased trade barriers and uncertainty in economic and trade policies have negatively impacted business and consumer confidence, hindering trade and investment [1][2] - The United States, Canada, and Mexico are expected to experience significant growth slowdowns, with the U.S. projected to grow at 1.6% and 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, down by 0.6 and 0.1 percentage points from previous forecasts [1] Group 2 - The OECD anticipates that the overall inflation rate for G20 countries will decrease from 6.2% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, although the U.S. is an exception with higher inflation rates projected [1] - The report emphasizes the need for countries to work together to address uncertainties, particularly by avoiding further trade fragmentation and barriers, which could help restore growth and investment [2] - The OECD's earlier mid-term economic outlook in March had projected higher growth rates of 3.1% and 3.0% for 2025 and 2026, indicating a significant downward revision in the latest report [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the conclusion of the China-US tariff agreement, the market's downward revision expectations for global economic growth have been corrected, and expectations for oil demand have started to be revised upward. After April 2, mainstream institutions revised down oil demand by 200,000 - 500,000 barrels per day, and after the agreement, it is expected to be revised up by 300,000 - 400,000 barrels per day. The subsequent adjustment depends on the tariff issue game after 90 days, but it will basically not be worse than the post - April 2 expectations [2] - After the China-US trade agreement was reached, oil prices bottomed out and rebounded in the short term, and a short - position allocation was recommended in the medium term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.72, closing at $63.67 per barrel, a gain of 2.78%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose $1.67, closing at $66.63 per barrel, a gain of 2.57%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 1.70%, at 491 yuan per barrel [1] - US inflation cooled, with the April CPI at 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest level since February 2021. Core CPI rose 2.8% year - on - year, the slowest pace since the inflation outbreak in spring 2021. Housing costs remained the key to inflation, while airfares, used car prices, and food prices declined. However, the impact of tariffs has not fully emerged, and enterprises may be digesting inventories [1] - Saudi Arabia promised to invest $600 billion in the US, covering arms, technology, Boeing aircraft, infrastructure, and data centers. The White House said that the US and Saudi Arabia reached the largest - scale commercial agreement in the history of the two countries, including $80 billion in high - tech investments from companies such as Google, DataVolt, and Oracle, a $20 billion AI data center and energy infrastructure investment from DataVolt, a $4.8 billion Boeing aircraft purchase, and an arms sales agreement of nearly $142 billion. The Saudi Crown Prince said that Saudi Arabia will strive to increase its investment in the US to $1 trillion [1] - The US State Department imposed a new round of sanctions on the shipping network related to Iran, stating that Iran's illegal oil sales fund Iran's weapons and Houthi attacks and will continue to exert maximum pressure on Iran [1] - For the week ending May 9 in the US, API crude oil inventories were 4.287 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.96 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.494 million barrels; gasoline inventories were - 1.374 million barrels, compared with an expected - 0.714 million barrels and a previous value of - 1.974 million barrels; refined oil inventories were - 3.675 million barrels, compared with an expected 0.372 million barrels and a previous value of 2.242 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories were - 0.85 million barrels, compared with a previous value of - 0.854 million barrels [1] - After the China - US tariff agreement was reached, foreign investment banks raised their economic growth expectations for China. Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for China's recent quarterly GDP, expecting enterprises to accelerate exports to take advantage of lower tariffs. JPMorgan Chase raised China's GDP growth rate (quarter - on - quarter annualized growth rate) from the second to the fourth quarter to 3% [1] Investment Logic - Diesel is the most affected by tariffs (freight and logistics industry), followed by fuel oil and jet fuel (shipping and aviation), then naphtha (chemical industry), and gasoline is the least affected and benefits from the demand elasticity after the oil price decline [2] Strategy - After the China - US trade agreement was reached, oil prices bottomed out and rebounded in the short term, and a short - position allocation was recommended in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks include a significant increase in OPEC production and macro black - swan events [4] - Upside risks include a tightening of supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [4]