Core Viewpoint - The escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lead to significant volatility in global financial markets, particularly affecting the gold market and international exchange rates, with next week's trends being highly uncertain [1] Group 1: Impact on Gold Market - Geopolitical conflicts are major drivers of gold price fluctuations, with gold being regarded as the "king of safe-haven assets" [3] - Historical instances, such as the post-9/11 period and the U.S.-Iran conflict in early 2020, show that gold prices can surge significantly during crises, with increases exceeding 20% in some cases [3] - If the U.S. bombs Iran, a strong upward trend in gold prices is likely due to heightened war risks and increased demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - War typically raises inflation expectations, which could further enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation, leading to increased investment in gold [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold prices are also influenced by the U.S. dollar exchange rate, global economic growth expectations, and central bank monetary policies [4] - A strong dollar usually suppresses gold prices, while a weak dollar supports them; however, military actions may initially boost the dollar due to safe-haven flows, creating short-term pressure on gold [4] - Long-term economic uncertainty and inflation pressures from military actions could weaken the dollar's attractiveness, leading to a potential return of funds to the gold market [4] Group 3: Impact on International Exchange Rates - The U.S. bombing of Iran is expected to create significant turbulence in the foreign exchange market, with the dollar likely experiencing a temporary surge due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [5] - Historical trends, such as during the Gulf War, indicate that the dollar index may rise during crises, but prolonged military spending and economic uncertainty could negatively impact the dollar's long-term stability [5] - The euro may face pressure due to potential disruptions in trade with the Middle East, while the yen could attract safe-haven flows but may be limited by rising import costs from increased oil prices [6] - Emerging market currencies are likely to face greater pressure, with potential capital outflows leading to currency depreciation and stock market declines [6]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic growth forecast has been downgraded by several international institutions, primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, which are seen as a significant risk to global economic stability [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Forecasts - The World Bank has reduced its 2025 global economic growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, affecting nearly 70% of economies [1][2]. - Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.2% this year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, with the U.S. growth forecast cut from 2.3% to 1.4% [2]. - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow by 3.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Trade Policies - The uncertainty from U.S. trade policies is identified as a major factor contributing to the global economic slowdown, with trade barriers and an unstable policy environment causing significant disruptions [4][5]. - The actual tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on imports have reached their highest levels since 1938, exacerbating economic headwinds [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) describes the U.S. tariff measures as a "major negative shock" to the global economy [5]. Group 3: Recommendations and Responses - The OECD suggests that countries should work together to mitigate uncertainty, emphasizing the need to avoid further trade fragmentation and barriers [6]. - The EU Commission indicates that easing trade tensions with the U.S. could support economic growth, alongside reforms to enhance competitiveness [6]. - Increased dialogue in trade could help alleviate uncertainties, with signs of adaptation in global supply chains [6].

Core Viewpoint - Major institutions have revised down their global economic growth forecasts for 2025, indicating a cyclical decline post-2021, which impacts demand for commodities, particularly industrial products like oil and copper [5][6][10]. Economic Forecasts - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January [6]. - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has also reduced its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, down by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [7]. - The World Bank has adjusted its 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing downward revisions [9]. - Fitch Ratings has downgraded its outlook for global sovereign debt ratings from "neutral" to "deteriorating," citing escalating global trade tensions as a key driver [10]. Commodity Demand Insights - For copper, the global consumption growth rate is projected to vary significantly based on different economic forecasts, with a potential range of 0.6% to 2.5% for 2025, indicating a divergence of 1.3% which corresponds to 350,000 tons of metal [14][15]. - The regression analysis shows that global copper consumption growth is closely tied to global economic growth, with a coefficient indicating that a 1% increase in economic growth leads to a 1.38% increase in copper consumption [13]. Oil Demand Insights - The global oil consumption growth rate is expected to range from -0.6% to 1.2% based on various forecasts, with a divergence of 0.8% translating to approximately 830,000 barrels per day [17][21]. - The regression analysis indicates that global oil consumption growth is also linked to economic growth, with a coefficient suggesting a 1% increase in economic growth results in a 1.44% increase in oil consumption [17]. Price and Trading Perspectives - Currently, copper prices remain relatively high while oil prices are at a low point, indicating a significant disparity in market conditions [19]. - The trading landscape shows considerable divergence between oil and copper, with volatility and positioning metrics reflecting differing market sentiments [21]. - The analysis suggests that oil is experiencing a "Davis double whammy," where both price and trading data have been fully priced in, while copper is facing a "Davis single whammy," with supply pressures rising and demand declining [21]. Copper-Oil Ratio Analysis - The copper-to-oil ratio is currently around 146, which is historically high, with the average ratio since 1993 being approximately 98 [22]. - The extreme copper-oil ratio is expected to undergo some correction, potentially moving towards the 2020 average of 120 [33].

Group 1 - The World Bank has significantly lowered its global economic growth forecast, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing downward revisions due to tariffs and increased policy uncertainty [1] - The World Bank projects a global economic growth of 2.3% in 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the January forecast, marking it as the slowest growth year since 2008 [1] - Developed economies are expected to grow at 1.2% in 2025, with the US growth forecast reduced to 1.4%, the Eurozone at 0.7%, and Japan also at 0.7% [1] Group 2 - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow at 3.8%, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points from the January forecast, with growth slowdowns expected across various regions [2] - The World Bank has not revised its growth forecast for China this year, citing new fiscal policies that can offset the impact of rising trade barriers [2] - Global trade volume growth is expected to be 1.8% and 2.4% for this year and next, respectively, both lower than previous forecasts [2] Group 3 - The World Bank's Chief Economist indicated that resolving trade disputes through agreements could lead to higher global economic growth than currently predicted [4] - The OECD has also downgraded its global economic growth forecast for this year and next, now expecting a GDP growth of 2.9% [4] - The OECD has revised the US economic growth forecast down to 1.6% for this year, while raising the overall inflation expectation to 3.2% [4]

Group 1 - International oil prices showed volatility, with a decline in closing prices on June 10, 2023. The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery fell by $0.31 to $64.98 per barrel, a decrease of 0.47%. Brent crude oil for August delivery decreased by $0.17 to $66.87 per barrel, down 0.25% [1] - Optimism surrounding the China-US trade talks is providing support for oil prices, as indicated by Harry Tchilinguirian from Onyx Capital Group [1] - Saudi Aramco is expected to ship approximately 47 million barrels of crude oil to China in July, a decrease of 1 million barrels compared to June, which may signal an early indication of OPEC+ exiting production cuts [1] Group 2 - According to a survey by S&P Global, analysts estimate a decrease of 1.9 million barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories, while gasoline and refined product inventories are expected to increase by 1.7 million barrels and 0.9 million barrels, respectively [2] - The US Energy Information Administration's monthly short-term energy outlook report indicates that US oil companies will reduce drilling activities due to low oil prices, leading to a decrease in drilling and completion numbers over the next 18 months [2] - The report projects that US average daily crude oil production will decline from 13.5 million barrels per day in Q2 to 13.3 million barrels per day in Q4 of this year, with an average slightly above 13.4 million barrels per day expected for the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish outlook despite fluctuations, with potential support levels identified for future buying opportunities [1][5][10]. Market Performance - On June 9, gold opened at $3311.77 per ounce, reached a low of $3293.69, and closed at $3325.39, marking a daily increase of $13.62 or 0.41% [1]. - The daily trading range was $44.23, indicating significant volatility [1]. Influencing Factors - The U.S. dollar index is experiencing downward pressure due to internal conflicts and geopolitical risks, which has contributed to a rebound in gold prices [3][8]. - The market is currently cautious, with a lack of clear driving factors, and gold's performance is expected to be volatile until it breaks through short-term moving averages [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices remain above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that while bullish momentum has weakened, key support levels are still intact, suggesting potential buying opportunities on dips [12]. - The daily chart highlights that gold has not broken below key support levels, indicating that any pullbacks could present buying opportunities [14]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. CPI data is anticipated to influence market sentiment, with expectations of rising inflation potentially benefiting gold prices [5][8]. - The overall economic environment, including rising fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions, continues to support gold as a safe-haven asset [8].

Group 1 - The OECD has revised down its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, a decrease of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from earlier predictions made in March [1] - The report highlights that increased trade barriers and uncertainty in economic and trade policies have negatively impacted business and consumer confidence, hindering trade and investment [1][2] - The United States, Canada, and Mexico are expected to experience significant growth slowdowns, with the U.S. projected to grow at 1.6% and 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, down by 0.6 and 0.1 percentage points from previous forecasts [1] Group 2 - The OECD anticipates that the overall inflation rate for G20 countries will decrease from 6.2% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, although the U.S. is an exception with higher inflation rates projected [1] - The report emphasizes the need for countries to work together to address uncertainties, particularly by avoiding further trade fragmentation and barriers, which could help restore growth and investment [2] - The OECD's earlier mid-term economic outlook in March had projected higher growth rates of 3.1% and 3.0% for 2025 and 2026, indicating a significant downward revision in the latest report [2]

金十数据6月3日讯，经济合作与发展组织发布经济展望报告，预计2025年和2026年全球经济增速均为 2.9%，较今年3月预测值分别下调0.2和0.1个百分点。经合组织预计在经贸政策不确定性等因素影响 下，今年美国经济增长1.6%，较3月预测值下调0.6个百分点，为增长放缓较为显著的主要经济体。同 时，与二十国集团国家通胀预期放缓趋势不同，美国今年总体通胀预期较3月预测值上调0.4个百分点， 至3.2%。 经合组织再次下调预计全球经济增长预期 ...

智通财经6月3日电，经合组织再次下调全球经济增长预期，预计今明两年全球经济增速均为2.9%。 ...

OECD将2025年全球经济增长预期从之前的3.1%下调至2.9%。 OECD将美国2025年经济增长预期从之前的2.2%下调至1.6%。 ...