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高盛:继续估计全球经济放缓或欧佩克+自愿减产220万桶/日的计划完全逆转,可能会在2026年将布伦特原油价格推至40美元的区间,在不太可能出现的极端情况下,布伦特原油价格将低于40美元。
news flash· 2025-05-02 18:28
高盛:继续估计全球经济放缓或欧佩克+自愿减产220万桶/日的计划完全逆转,可能会在2026年将布伦 特原油价格推至40美元的区间,在不太可能出现的极端情况下,布伦特原油价格将低于40美元。 ...
伦锡今年表现抢眼,但近期面临压力
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 06:02
Market Overview - Tin prices have shown strong performance, rising over 10% year-to-date, but faced pressure following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the US in early April [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price reached a nearly three-year high of $38,395 per ton on April 2, before sharply declining to $28,925 per ton by April 9, marking a nearly 20% drop within a week [2] - Despite recent volatility, tin prices continue to outperform other metals, supported by ongoing supply challenges [2] Supply Dynamics - LME tin inventories have decreased by over 40% since the beginning of the year, reaching a low of 2,810 tons by the end of April, the lowest level since June 2023 [2] - In contrast, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have surged over 70% this year, reaching nearly 9,000 tons, the highest level since September of the previous year [2] - Indonesia's refined tin exports in February increased over 100% month-on-month to 3,670 tons, driven by higher demand from major buyers and increased exports to other Asian markets [3][4] Import Challenges - Myanmar's ongoing issues continue to pressure tin ore imports for major consuming countries, with China's imports of tin ore and concentrates in March 2025 dropping 64% year-on-year to 8,322.55 tons [5] - The cumulative import volume for January to March 2025 was 26,900 tons, reflecting a 55% year-on-year decline [5] - Although there are hopes for supply recovery following a recent meeting by Wa State authorities to outline new mining and processing licensing procedures, the timeline remains uncertain [6] Consumption Trends - Global refined tin consumption has started strong this year, with an estimated 8% year-on-year growth in the first two months, driven by robust demand from countries like India and Japan [8] - However, potential risks to domestic and export-driven demand may arise from US tariffs, which could dampen economic momentum [9] Production Outlook - The mining ban in Myanmar is expected to end soon, but the restart of operations faces delays and rising costs, with a recent meeting discussing new mining license applications [10] - Alphamin Resources announced a phased restart of its Bisie mine, which accounts for about 6% of global supply, but has lowered its 2025 tin production forecast from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons due to increased anti-government activity [10]
麦格理集团驻纽约宏观策略师蒂埃里·维兹曼表示:“只要即将到来的全球经济放缓对新兴市场的影响相对较小”,新兴市场的反弹就能持续下去。“然而,我担心最终经济放缓会影响到新兴市场。”
news flash· 2025-04-21 16:19
"然而,我担心最终经济放缓会影响到新兴市场。" 麦格理集团驻纽约宏观策略师蒂埃里·维兹曼表示:"只要即将到来的全球经济放缓对新兴市场的影响相 对较小",新兴市场的反弹就能持续下去。 ...
关税和全球经济放缓影响,摩根大通下调台积电CoWoS需求
硬AI· 2025-04-17 15:09
点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 摩根大通将其对台积电CoWoS先进封装技术在未来两年的消费预期分别下调了7%和3%,理由是来自亚马逊自研AI芯片 的需求减少,以及基于宏观经济的不确定性。摩根大通预测,受关税和全球经济放缓的影响,台积电管理层可能将2025 财年的收入增长指引从约25%下调至20%左右。 硬·AI 作者 | 董 静 此外,亚马逊Trainium芯片被外部客户采用的前景有限。摩根大通现在预期,未来两年,下一代Trainium 项目的生命周期单位仅增长5-10%,市场可能会对亚马逊的定制芯片(ASIC)项目持更为谨慎的态度。 尽管如此,摩根大通预测, 2025年台积电CoWoS的整体需求仍预计增长107%,2026年继续保持37%的 增长,这主要得益于英伟达的强劲需求、ASIC项目增加(尤其是博通和联发科)以及苹果WMCM芯片封 装业务的启动。 01 英伟达仍是CoWos最大客户 但增长预期趋于理性 报告预计,台积电的CoWoS产能将在2025年继续保持紧张,但到2026年可能会达到供需平衡。 英伟达继续是CoWoS-L需求的主要驱动力,大摩预计,该公司将获得足够的CoWoS分配,以在2025年生 产 ...